Teams with 1st loss Week 13:
None

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 13:
Washington State
Michigan
Utah State

Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)
Week 7: 27.27% (3 of 11)
Week 8: 37.50% (3 of 8)
Week 9: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 10: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 13: 0% (0 of 4)

Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Notre Dame, UCF, Clemson, Alabama

Week 13 Thoughts:
-For the first time since we went into week 2, the number of undefeated teams is higher than the 1-loss teams.

-The limited hopes for the PAC-12 getting in the Orange/Cotton were ended this week with Washington beating Washington State removing the conference’s last 1-loss team.

-It is a forgone conclusion now that this year will continue the trend that we have followed every year of the CFP (and every year but one in the BCS era), and we’ll only send undefeated or 1-loss teams to the bowls with a chance for a national championship.

-Notre Dame’s season is over, and they will be in. The other 6 undefeated and 1-loss teams play this week. We’ll get a better idea after seeing the playoff rankings Tuesday, but here are my thoughts on the current CFP bowl positions:
1. Undefeated Alabama (beat Georgia this week)
2. Undefeated Clemson (beat Pitt)
3. 1-loss Georgia (beat Alabama), might be below Notre Dame, but unlikely to matter
4. Undefeated Notre Dame (done, will be in at #2 or #3).
5. 1-loss Alabama (lose to Georgia)
6. 1-loss Oklahoma (beat Texas): Oklahoma and Ohio State are very close and how they play will matter, but think the Sooners have an edge if both look similar (although most bowl projections disagree).
7. 1-loss Ohio State (beat Northwestern): See above
8. 1-loss Clemson (lose to Pitt)
9. Undefeated UCF (beat Memphis)

The Group of 5 race now seems fairly clear. UCF won last week, and Boise State took down previous 1-loss Utah State. Only the 5 champions of the conference championship games are eligible here and the most likely order by far is this is:
1. UCF (win and they are in)
2. Boise State/Fresno State winner
There might be some discussion of Memphis or Appalachian State over Fresno State, but don’t see it going anywhere.

Week 14 Thoughts:
-1 of our games involves an undefeated team and a 1-loss team this week with 1-loss Georgia vs. undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. This is very big not just for the two, but for Ohio State and Oklahoma as well. If Georgia wins, it is likely Georgia is in at no worse than #3 and Alabama would stand a very good chance to at least stay at 4. If that is true, a Georgia win combined with Clemson holding on vs. Pitt will remove both teams from the playoff bowl hunt.

Undefeated Clemson vs. Pitt (ACC Championship): Clemson will be a huge, huge favorite in this. If they lose though, they would be competing with Oklahoma and Ohio State (if they win) for the final spots most likely and would not have the advantage of a conference crown.

Memphis @ undefeated UCF (American Championship): Memphis only lost this game last time by a point (although were at home then). Tigers struggled some earlier in year but ended hot and UCF lost their starting quarterback last week. All together that leaves the Knights slight favorites here. UCF is in the Fiesta/Peach with a win. Memphis wins and the Mountain West champ is probably in.

Oklahoma vs. Texas (Big 12 Championship): Sooners lost the first match-up of this which was also in Dallas (although at the Cotton Bowl). Texas seems to have overachieved a bit this year to me, and I think a loss here is less likely than a loss at West Virginia would have been last week. That said, the Longhorns certainly have the talent to win. Oklahoma doesn’t just care about winning but looking well doing it. In particular, it would be nice for the defense to have a good performance as it has been necessary for Oklahoma to outscore a lot of opponents. If the defense can show some improvement, it will help their argument a lot.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern (Big Ten Championship): Ohio State is a fairly big favorite here, but Northwestern has managed to keep winning the Big Ten games they have been underdogs in all season and they are now playing for the Rose Bowl. Ohio State might be playing for it too by game time. If Alabama wins or Clemson loses, they want to look better than Oklahoma to get the final spot. Something at least in the vein of their performance vs. Wisconsin in the first year of the CFP would do wonders.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total: 4
Clemson
Central Florida
Alabama
Notre Dame

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 1, independents: 0, total: 3
Oklahoma
Georgia
Ohio State