(09-25-2016 07:16 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think the program has backslid since their national championship appearance.

Ironically, that makes them like LSU and Texas as well. All three have skidded since losing to Alabama in BCS title games.

(09-25-2016 12:46 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I saw that. Long overdue.

ND is scoring 38 points a game and averaging 455 yards per game....and is 1-3.

But ... those stats mask that the offense has been very inconsistent. Look at the three lost games. Against Texas, ND led 7-0 early, then Texas went up 31-14 in the third quarter. So for a big stretch of the game, almost half of it, from midway through the first quarter when they went up 7-0 to midway through the third when they scored their second TD, when Texas was piling up points and turning the game in its favor, ND only scored 7 points while Texas scored 31.

Against MSU, ND also led 7-0, then MSU scored the next *36* points to go up 36-7. Again, during a big stretch when MSU was winning the game, the ND offense was silent. It only awoke in essentially garbage time.

Even versus Duke, ND led 14-0, and then the offense sputtered while Duke (Duke!) scored 21 unanswered points.

And in both the Duke and MSU losses, the Irish committed 3 turnovers to just 1 for the other team, and those turnovers helped key their runs.

So in all three losses, the Irish offense went silent while the other team went on 20+ point streaks to basically turn the games around. It has been a sputtering, streaky offense prone to mistakes.

Smith left early, the safety got kicked out. Those were the only two top 100 defensive players that would have been seniors. The guy shut out Michigan with better players, the schemes weren't too complex. It's simple: recruit better defensive players and you'll field a better defense.

Be careful what you wish for. With the requirements that ND have, I find it hard to see any coach wanting the job, especially if the university lets Kelly go after this year, unless they want to make a quick buck. I believe Kelly is doing as well as any coach would do at this time with ND.

(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

I disagree. Brian Kelly is an elite coach. He's not as good as Urban Meyer or Nick Saban, but no one is.

Who else do you think is better than BK? I don't think you can even make a good argument for anyone except Jim Harbaugh and Jimbo Fisher.

The next tier is guys like Mark Dantonio, Pat Fitzgerald (until this year), Dabo Swinney, Kevin Sumlin, and Gary Patterson. I think Kelly fits in this group, & I would still consider that elite. His accomplishments certainly match up nicely with the coaches in this group.

I saw both Dantonio & Kelly up close. I think that Kelly is every bit the equal of Dantonio. He's not as well-rounded as Dantonio, but BK's offensive strategy and his unparalleled brilliance as a QB coach makes up for that. BK won't be as consistent year-to-year as Dantonio, but if I had to bet on which one of them will win a National Title in the next 5 years I'd pick Kelly. Kelly is also better with the media than Dantonio.

(09-26-2016 04:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 12:46 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I saw that. Long overdue.

ND is scoring 38 points a game and averaging 455 yards per game....and is 1-3.

But ... those stats mask that the offense has been very inconsistent. Look at the three lost games. Against Texas, ND led 7-0 early, then Texas went up 31-14 in the third quarter. So for a big stretch of the game, almost half of it, from midway through the first quarter when they went up 7-0 to midway through the third when they scored their second TD, when Texas was piling up points and turning the game in its favor, ND only scored 7 points while Texas scored 31.

Against MSU, ND also led 7-0, then MSU scored the next *36* points to go up 36-7. Again, during a big stretch when MSU was winning the game, the ND offense was silent. It only awoke in essentially garbage time.

Even versus Duke, ND led 14-0, and then the offense sputtered while Duke (Duke!) scored 21 unanswered points.

And in both the Duke and MSU losses, the Irish committed 3 turnovers to just 1 for the other team, and those turnovers helped key their runs.

So in all three losses, the Irish offense went silent while the other team went on 20+ point streaks to basically turn the games around. It has been a sputtering, streaky offense prone to mistakes.

Agreed. The offense has been inconsistent.

I was just putting most of the 1-3 blame on the defense, not the offense which (unlike the defense) has the horses (Kizer, Adams, St. Brown, Sanders) to perform very well and has put up 37 points and 455 yards per game.

(09-26-2016 05:49 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(09-26-2016 04:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 12:46 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I saw that. Long overdue.

ND is scoring 38 points a game and averaging 455 yards per game....and is 1-3.

But ... those stats mask that the offense has been very inconsistent. Look at the three lost games. Against Texas, ND led 7-0 early, then Texas went up 31-14 in the third quarter. So for a big stretch of the game, almost half of it, from midway through the first quarter when they went up 7-0 to midway through the third when they scored their second TD, when Texas was piling up points and turning the game in its favor, ND only scored 7 points while Texas scored 31.

Against MSU, ND also led 7-0, then MSU scored the next *36* points to go up 36-7. Again, during a big stretch when MSU was winning the game, the ND offense was silent. It only awoke in essentially garbage time.

Even versus Duke, ND led 14-0, and then the offense sputtered while Duke (Duke!) scored 21 unanswered points.

And in both the Duke and MSU losses, the Irish committed 3 turnovers to just 1 for the other team, and those turnovers helped key their runs.

So in all three losses, the Irish offense went silent while the other team went on 20+ point streaks to basically turn the games around. It has been a sputtering, streaky offense prone to mistakes.

Agreed. The offense has been inconsistent.

I was just putting most of the 1-3 blame on the defense, not the offense which (unlike the defense) has the horses (Kizer, Adams, St. Brown, Sanders) to perform very well and has put up 37 points and 455 yards per game.

Capt #26,

Spot on! And the only reason BK won't be as consistent as Dantonio at Mich St is purely because Notre Dame has made its choice: independence & tougher 12 game schedule over joining a conference & easier 12 game schedule.

(09-27-2016 10:55 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Capt #26,

Spot on! And the only reason BK won't be as consistent as Dantonio at Mich St is purely because Notre Dame has made its choice: independence & tougher 12 game schedule over joining a conference & easier 12 game schedule.

Last year, Notre Dame had an excellent year, despite playing the #4 (Sagarin) schedule. Michigan State had an excellent year too, and they played the #9 schedule, not so very different. Big years against tough schedules.

But in 2014, Notre Dame went 8-5 against the #33 schedule, and in 2013 they went 9-4 against the #30 schedule. And right now, ND is 1-3 against the #29 schedule

Is losing 4 or 5 games against the #30ish schedule really that awesome, or brutal?

Can't come up with a decent counter to that specifically. My intuition says it's because you're limiting the years of the data so much.

Hard for me to accept that you really think ND's indy schedule on average isn't tougher than if it played the schedule that Ohio St or Boston College play on average.

(09-27-2016 11:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-27-2016 10:55 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Capt #26,

Spot on! And the only reason BK won't be as consistent as Dantonio at Mich St is purely because Notre Dame has made its choice: independence & tougher 12 game schedule over joining a conference & easier 12 game schedule.

Last year, Notre Dame had an excellent year, despite playing the #4 (Sagarin) schedule. Michigan State had an excellent year too, and they played the #9 schedule, not so very different. Big years against tough schedules.

But in 2014, Notre Dame went 8-5 against the #33 schedule, and in 2013 they went 9-4 against the #30 schedule. And right now, ND is 1-3 against the #29 schedule

Is losing 4 or 5 games against the #30ish schedule really that awesome, or brutal?

Agreed. The Independent schedule isn't really tougher than those in a major conference. What it may be is more balanced. ND plays few bottom feeder teams, meaning they can't really have an off game.

I think Kelly is a darned good coach. I'm not sure he's a great coach for Notre Dame. At a minimum, he needs an elite DC, because he's never been much of a defensive coach.

I can see it now...Lane Kiffin gets some nice HC job, Kelly gets fired, and Saban has him come in as OC (not likely...just seems like Saban can pull that stuff off).

(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

jmo Even at Cincinnati, I thought it was easy to see Kelly's strength (and most his passion, imo) was on the offensive side of the ball. We won games by outscoring people.

I noticed he has changed the pace of his offense since going to ND, but he is still putting up numbers.

I will always pull for him, I think what he accomplished at Cincinnati was under appreciated in a pro town. I just hoped he would have hooked up with a defensive wizard to coach that side of the ball at ND.

(09-27-2016 11:23 AM)Topkat Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

jmo Even at Cincinnati, I thought it was easy to see Kelly's strength (and most his passion, imo) was on the offensive side of the ball. We won games by outscoring people.

I noticed he has changed the pace of his offense since going to ND, but he is still putting up numbers.

I will always pull for him, I think what he accomplished at Cincinnati was under appreciated in a pro town. I just hoped he would have hooked up with a defensive wizard to coach that side of the ball at ND.

He had it in 2012, when Bob Diaco won the Broyles award as top coordinator.

(09-26-2016 05:44 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

I disagree. Brian Kelly is an elite coach. He's not as good as Urban Meyer or Nick Saban, but no one is.

Who else do you think is better than BK? I don't think you can even make a good argument for anyone except Jim Harbaugh and Jimbo Fisher.

The next tier is guys like Mark Dantonio, Pat Fitzgerald (until this year), Dabo Swinney, Kevin Sumlin, and Gary Patterson. I think Kelly fits in this group, & I would still consider that elite. His accomplishments certainly match up nicely with the coaches in this group.

I saw both Dantonio & Kelly up close. I think that Kelly is every bit the equal of Dantonio. He's not as well-rounded as Dantonio, but BK's offensive strategy and his unparalleled brilliance as a QB coach makes up for that. BK won't be as consistent year-to-year as Dantonio, but if I had to bet on which one of them will win a National Title in the next 5 years I'd pick Kelly. Kelly is also better with the media than Dantonio.

In addition to Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh, and Fisher, I'd take at least Dantonio, Swinney, Patterson, Shaw, and Petersen over Kelly. Herman might be a better choice as well but doesn't have as many years as a head coach yet. Kelly might be in the tier below all those guys, but he wouldn't necessarily be at the top of that tier -- for example, would you really take Kelly over Mark Richt or Bob Stoops?

Depends if we're talking about a program in the Great Lakes or not. College football is regional, all the way to the top. SEC should hire SEC guys. PAC to PAC. So on...

(09-27-2016 11:53 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Depends if we're talking about a program in the Great Lakes or not. College football is regional, all the way to the top. SEC should hire SEC guys. PAC to PAC. So on...

No it's not. College football has become a whole hell of a lot more national than it EVER was before. I don't think you like that, but that is the reality of where we are today. It's the real legacy of the BCS IMO.

(09-27-2016 11:08 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Can't come up with a decent counter to that specifically. My intuition says it's because you're limiting the years of the data so much.

Hard for me to accept that you really think ND's indy schedule on average isn't tougher than if it played the schedule that Ohio St or Boston College play on average.

I agree we'd need more years - specifically back to 2010 if we are comparing Kelly to Dantonio - to say for sure. But my point wasn't really to do that, it was more focused on Kelly himself. IMO, 2013 and 2014 show that Kelly is fully capable of losing 4-5 games, IOW's not having a very good season by elite standards, even when playing a not-so-tough schedule, regardless of what other coaches are doing.

(09-27-2016 11:29 AM)HuskyHawk Wrote:  

(09-27-2016 11:23 AM)Topkat Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

jmo Even at Cincinnati, I thought it was easy to see Kelly's strength (and most his passion, imo) was on the offensive side of the ball. We won games by outscoring people.

I noticed he has changed the pace of his offense since going to ND, but he is still putting up numbers.

I will always pull for him, I think what he accomplished at Cincinnati was under appreciated in a pro town. I just hoped he would have hooked up with a defensive wizard to coach that side of the ball at ND.

He had it in 2012, when Bob Diaco won the Broyles award as top coordinator.

Agree that particular year was a great one defensively for ND. Diaco was also DC at ND, I believe from '10-'13, so I'm looking more at consistency issues longer term on the defensive side of the ball.

Diaco was also DC for Kelly in '09 at UC. UC was 12-1 that year, but the teams they played who finished the year with a .500 or better record put up 25+ points on us when we played them. To be fair, I don't think one year as DC is enough time, but it sums up how he won games while here.

(09-27-2016 12:10 PM)Topkat Wrote:  

(09-27-2016 11:29 AM)HuskyHawk Wrote:  

(09-27-2016 11:23 AM)Topkat Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

jmo Even at Cincinnati, I thought it was easy to see Kelly's strength (and most his passion, imo) was on the offensive side of the ball. We won games by outscoring people.

I noticed he has changed the pace of his offense since going to ND, but he is still putting up numbers.

I will always pull for him, I think what he accomplished at Cincinnati was under appreciated in a pro town. I just hoped he would have hooked up with a defensive wizard to coach that side of the ball at ND.

He had it in 2012, when Bob Diaco won the Broyles award as top coordinator.

Agree that particular year was a great one defensively for ND. Diaco was also DC at ND, I believe from '10-'13, so I'm looking more at consistency issues longer term on the defensive side of the ball.

Diaco was also DC for Kelly in '09 at UC. UC was 12-1 that year, but the teams they played who finished the year with a .500 or better record put up 25+ points on us when we played them. To be fair, I don't think one year as DC is enough time, but it sums up how he won games while here.

That 2012 ND team shows how everything has to come together to win a title. That year, the Irish had the coaching, the schemes, and some good players on D, like T'eo. But Alabama exposed them as having an all-around talent deficit, at least compared to the very cream like Alabama. Kelly hadn't had time to fill the cupboard left bare by Weis.

In contrast, last year, ND did have the all-around talent to play with anyone, even the Alabamas and Ohio States, and they had the coaching, but were hit with critical injuries that sapped the talent, killer against the top teams they lost to- and they only lost to top teams. It all has to come together - talent, coaching, and luck with injuries -to win it.