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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-27-2016 11:49 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(09-26-2016 05:44 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.


I disagree. Brian Kelly is an elite coach. He's not as good as Urban Meyer or Nick Saban, but no one is.

Who else do you think is better than BK? I don't think you can even make a good argument for anyone except Jim Harbaugh and Jimbo Fisher.

The next tier is guys like Mark Dantonio, Pat Fitzgerald (until this year), Dabo Swinney, Kevin Sumlin, and Gary Patterson. I think Kelly fits in this group, & I would still consider that elite. His accomplishments certainly match up nicely with the coaches in this group.

I saw both Dantonio & Kelly up close. I think that Kelly is every bit the equal of Dantonio. He's not as well-rounded as Dantonio, but BK's offensive strategy and his unparalleled brilliance as a QB coach makes up for that. BK won't be as consistent year-to-year as Dantonio, but if I had to bet on which one of them will win a National Title in the next 5 years I'd pick Kelly. Kelly is also better with the media than Dantonio.

In addition to Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh, and Fisher, I'd take at least Dantonio, Swinney, Patterson, Shaw, and Petersen over Kelly. Herman might be a better choice as well but doesn't have as many years as a head coach yet. Kelly might be in the tier below all those guys, but he wouldn't necessarily be at the top of that tier -- for example, would you really take Kelly over Mark Richt or Bob Stoops?

I forgot about Shaw.

Shaw and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 2-3. The home team won every game, and they were all close.

Dantonio and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 3-2, including 2 blowout wins.

It's hard to say that Kelly isn't as good as those guys based on their records. Then you add in the fact that Kelly has had 2 undefeated regular seasons, and neither of those other guys has had even 1. So Kelly is definitely in the same league as them but he's just not as consistent year-to-year because he's not as well rounded.
09-27-2016 05:49 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-27-2016 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I forgot about Shaw.

Shaw and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 2-3. The home team won every game, and they were all close.

Dantonio and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 3-2, including 2 blowout wins.

It's hard to say that Kelly isn't as good as those guys based on their records. Then you add in the fact that Kelly has had 2 undefeated regular seasons, and neither of those other guys has had even 1. So Kelly is definitely in the same league as them but he's just not as consistent year-to-year because he's not as well rounded.

It's only hard to say because it pains me to say anything good about Stanford football. 07-coffee3 But I will say it anyway.

Shaw is 57-14 at Stanford in 5-plus years with 4 BCS/CFP games, with 4 seasons ranked in the final AP poll (3rd, 7th, 7th, and 11th). That is far, far above the historical average for Stanford football.

Kelly is 56-26 at Notre Dame in 6-plus years with 2 BCS/CFP games, and 3 seasons ranked in the final AP poll (4th, 11th, and 20th). That is slightly below the historical average for Notre Dame football.
09-27-2016 07:48 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-27-2016 07:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(09-27-2016 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I forgot about Shaw.

Shaw and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 2-3. The home team won every game, and they were all close.

Dantonio and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 3-2, including 2 blowout wins.

It's hard to say that Kelly isn't as good as those guys based on their records. Then you add in the fact that Kelly has had 2 undefeated regular seasons, and neither of those other guys has had even 1. So Kelly is definitely in the same league as them but he's just not as consistent year-to-year because he's not as well rounded.

It's only hard to say because it pains me to say anything good about Stanford football. 07-coffee3 But I will say it anyway.

Shaw is 57-14 at Stanford in 5-plus years with 4 BCS/CFP games, with 4 seasons ranked in the final AP poll (3rd, 7th, 7th, and 11th). That is far, far above the historical average for Stanford football.

Kelly is 56-26 at Notre Dame in 6-plus years with 2 BCS/CFP games, and 3 seasons ranked in the final AP poll (4th, 11th, and 20th). That is slightly below the historical average for Notre Dame football.

I must say that I am a little surprised that Shaw has been able to sustain the success Stanford had under Harbaugh. I expected some drop off once Harbaugh's recruits were no longer in the program. Stanford is now in uncharted territory for them. They are making it harder for schools like Duke, Vandy and Northwestern to blame academic standards for mediocre or poor performance.
09-29-2016 08:37 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-27-2016 07:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(09-27-2016 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I forgot about Shaw.

Shaw and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 2-3. The home team won every game, and they were all close.

Dantonio and Kelly have played 5 games against each other. Kelly is 3-2, including 2 blowout wins.

It's hard to say that Kelly isn't as good as those guys based on their records. Then you add in the fact that Kelly has had 2 undefeated regular seasons, and neither of those other guys has had even 1. So Kelly is definitely in the same league as them but he's just not as consistent year-to-year because he's not as well rounded.

It's only hard to say because it pains me to say anything good about Stanford football. 07-coffee3 But I will say it anyway.

Shaw is 57-14 at Stanford in 5-plus years with 4 BCS/CFP games, with 4 seasons ranked in the final AP poll (3rd, 7th, 7th, and 11th). That is far, far above the historical average for Stanford football.

Kelly is 56-26 at Notre Dame in 6-plus years with 2 BCS/CFP games, and 3 seasons ranked in the final AP poll (4th, 11th, and 20th). That is slightly below the historical average for Notre Dame football.

High school kids don't choose schools by the "historical average" since 1950. They go based on the historical average of the last 20 years, tops (last 10 years are even more important). Notre Dame was better than Stanford & Michigan State over that time period, but not by a whole lot.

Notre Dame was roughly the equal of Texas A&M or Clemson over that time period before they got their current coaches.

And you have to consider Kelly's tremendous success at lower levels when you're judging him, just like you have to consider Sumlin's & Patterson's. After all, in the last 4 years, Kelly has more wins & more top-25 finishes than either Sumlin or Patterson. When you look at performance at the lower levels you find Kelly did at least as good as any of those other guys, including Urban Meyer:

Kelly won two national titles in D-2, turned Central Michigan from a doormat (16-41 in the 5 years before Kelly) into a MAC championship team, and at Cincinnati (18-17 under Dantonio despite 1 of those years being in C-USA) Kelly went 34-6, including 10-3 against ranked teams and finishing ranked in all 3 seasons.
09-30-2016 05:48 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-30-2016 05:48 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  And you have to consider Kelly's tremendous success at lower levels when you're judging him, just like you have to consider Sumlin's & Patterson's. After all, in the last 4 years, Kelly has more wins & more top-25 finishes than either Sumlin or Patterson.

Patterson (the TCU coach) has won two BCS/CFP bowls
while Kelly has been at ND (and lost one the year before that, the year Kelly's last Cincinnati team played in the Sugar Bowl). Maybe you meant Petersen (the Washington coach who was previously at Boise State).
09-30-2016 08:25 PM
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HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Great news for TerryD
Kelly's recent defeats remind me of what Notre Dame fans said about Hunk Anderson in the 30's. It is not that the Irish lost, it was how they lost. They lost games in a way that Notre Dame wasn't supposed to.
10-01-2016 01:38 AM
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Post: #47
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-27-2016 11:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-27-2016 10:55 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Capt #26,

Spot on! And the only reason BK won't be as consistent as Dantonio at Mich St is purely because Notre Dame has made its choice: independence & tougher 12 game schedule over joining a conference & easier 12 game schedule.

Last year, Notre Dame had an excellent year, despite playing the #4 (Sagarin) schedule. Michigan State had an excellent year too, and they played the #9 schedule, not so very different. Big years against tough schedules.

But in 2014, Notre Dame went 8-5 against the #33 schedule, and in 2013 they went 9-4 against the #30 schedule. And right now, ND is 1-3 against the #29 schedule

Is losing 4 or 5 games against the #30ish schedule really that awesome, or brutal?

Part of the reason the schedule is so good is because they lost those games, especially since there's been so few games. Win against Duke and Texas as they should and not only are they 3-1 and none of this conversation is happening but the strength of schedule plummets because neither looks as good. And truth be told, both aren't much to write home about.
10-01-2016 06:14 AM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-29-2016 08:37 AM)ken d Wrote:  I must say that I am a little surprised that Shaw has been able to sustain the success Stanford had under Harbaugh. I expected some drop off once Harbaugh's recruits were no longer in the program. Stanford is now in uncharted territory for them. They are making it harder for schools like Duke, Vandy and Northwestern to blame academic standards for mediocre or poor performance.

Looks like Shaw is teetering on the brink, he got his ass kicked and handed to him by another great coach who hasn't showed up in this thread, Chris Petersen. They were lucky to escape UCLA as it was.
10-01-2016 06:56 AM
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Post: #49
RE: Great news for TerryD
Shaw didn't have his boys ready to play last night!
10-01-2016 08:53 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

How many ND coaches have gone 12-0?
11-24-2018 11:47 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Great news for TerryD
(09-25-2016 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just saw:
Notre Dame announces Brian VanGorder has been fired as defensive coordinator. Notre Dame had given up 35+ points in 5 of its last 6 games, dating to last year

Wait a second. Brian VanGorder was Louisville’s DC this year. Two years later, he killed Petrino’s career.
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2018 11:52 PM by IWokeUpLikeThis.)
11-24-2018 11:51 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Great news for TerryD
(11-24-2018 11:51 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(09-25-2016 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just saw:
Notre Dame announces Brian VanGorder has been fired as defensive coordinator. Notre Dame had given up 35+ points in 5 of its last 6 games, dating to last year

Wait a second. Brian VanGorder was Louisville’s DC this year. Two years later, he killed Petrino’s career.

He almost killed Brian Kelly's career.

Since ND launched Van Gorder, it is 22-3.
11-25-2018 08:57 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Great news for TerryD
(11-25-2018 08:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(11-24-2018 11:51 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(09-25-2016 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just saw:
Notre Dame announces Brian VanGorder has been fired as defensive coordinator. Notre Dame had given up 35+ points in 5 of its last 6 games, dating to last year

Wait a second. Brian VanGorder was Louisville’s DC this year. Two years later, he killed Petrino’s career.

He almost killed Brian Kelly's career.

Since ND launched Van Gorder, it is 22-3.

not quite. they went 3-5 in 2016 after firing him...

so they are 25-8 since then....
11-25-2018 11:24 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Great news for TerryD
(11-25-2018 11:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-25-2018 08:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(11-24-2018 11:51 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(09-25-2016 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just saw:
Notre Dame announces Brian VanGorder has been fired as defensive coordinator. Notre Dame had given up 35+ points in 5 of its last 6 games, dating to last year

Wait a second. Brian VanGorder was Louisville’s DC this year. Two years later, he killed Petrino’s career.

He almost killed Brian Kelly's career.

Since ND launched Van Gorder, it is 22-3.

not quite. they went 3-5 in 2016 after firing him...

so they are 25-8 since then....



Ok, but they were still stuck with Van Gorder's overly complicated scheme and an interim DC for the remainder of 2016.

From the beginning of the 2017 season (with a new DC and scheme) until now, ND is 22-3.
11-25-2018 12:27 PM
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Scoochpooch1 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Great news for TerryD
Any news about NCAA forcing them to choose a conference yet?
11-25-2018 12:36 PM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: Great news for TerryD
(11-25-2018 12:36 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Any news about NCAA forcing them to choose a conference yet?



Yes, they tabled all such discussions until at least 2037.
11-25-2018 12:57 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Great news for TerryD
(11-24-2018 11:47 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(09-25-2016 03:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Talent not really the issue

Coaching certainly is, at defensive coordinator and yes, head coach.

Brian Kelly is a good coach but not an elite one.

Everyone who has ever won big at ND (Ara, Devine, Holtz) says that they needed every single bit of big school coaching experience they had to handle the pressure, the off the field and media demands, etc..

I think that it takes an elite coach to win at ND. There are lots of distractions and issues besides the on the field responsibilities.

Kelly had a good year in 2012 and last year.

So, he had bought some goodwill with the administration if not the fans.

But, he is not an elite coach. He showed that ND can recruit and win again after the Davie, Willingham and Weis regimes, but he may have hit his ceiling at ND.

I think that last year's 10-3 record, while overcoming quite a lot of adversity in the form of serious injuries, masked the defensive problems that manifested themselves again this year.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points and 455.8 yards per game and the team is 1-3. Even a mediocre defense and ND may be 3-1 or 4-0.

Is that on the coordinator or the guy who hired him?

Kelly probably survives this year after jettisoning his DC, but his seat will be very, very warm next years.

How many ND coaches have gone 12-0?

The best coach that ND could have hired. Congrats to the being in the playoff.
11-25-2018 06:05 PM
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Post: #58
RE: Great news for TerryD
I remember when Weis was fired in 2009 that the two top candidates were Brian Kelly (Cincinnati) and Randy Edsall (UConn). Boy, I cannot imagine what nightmare ND Football would be in today if they had hired Edsall.

Kelly has been a great hire at ND. Other than the blip in 2016, which finally forced Kelly to change the way he coached, and go outside his circle of friends as assistants/coordinators, he has done incredibly well at ND. Hard to believe next year will be his tenth year in South Bend.
11-25-2018 06:29 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Great news for TerryD
(11-25-2018 06:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I remember when Weis was fired in 2009 that the two top candidates were Brian Kelly (Cincinnati) and Randy Edsall (UConn). Boy, I cannot imagine what nightmare ND Football would be in today if they had hired Edsall.

Kelly has been a great hire at ND. Other than the blip in 2016, which finally forced Kelly to change the way he coached, and go outside his circle of friends as assistants/coordinators, he has done incredibly well at ND. Hard to believe next year will be his tenth year in South Bend.

BK has done a really good job at ND. They get everyone's A game.
11-25-2018 10:26 PM
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