MWC Tex
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 01:56 PM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote: Bsu will not be ranked over Houston (Oklahoma win and all). They can't get a win good enough to beat that, but, even if they were if Houston beats Louisville they would jump back over them. If Navy loses Houston would be garuanteed the spot even with an undefeated bsu( Marshall rule). Houston would have 2-top 10 wins and probably 2 in conference top 25 wins if Memphis and USF continue to win out. I don't think bsu would have a single top 25 win.
Its very plausible that BSU could be ranked over Houston. OU could lose another game or two. WSU could be 9-2 going in the game with UW and could be ranked and possibly ranked higher if OU loses another game.
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10-21-2016 03:06 PM |
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Tigersmoke3
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 03:06 PM)MWC Tex Wrote: (10-21-2016 01:56 PM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote: Bsu will not be ranked over Houston (Oklahoma win and all). They can't get a win good enough to beat that, but, even if they were if Houston beats Louisville they would jump back over them. If Navy loses Houston would be garuanteed the spot even with an undefeated bsu( Marshall rule). Houston would have 2-top 10 wins and probably 2 in conference top 25 wins if Memphis and USF continue to win out. I don't think bsu would have a single top 25 win.
Its very plausible that BSU could be ranked over Houston. OU could lose another game or two. WSU could be 9-2 going in the game with UW and could be ranked and possibly ranked higher if OU loses another game.
Even if your unlikely scenario happened it still would not be as good as 4 top 25 wins that includes 2 top 10 wins in addition to a much stronger overall conference rating
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10-21-2016 03:29 PM |
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stever20
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RE: G5 Access Race
SOS is going to be extremely tough for Boise to overcome. The problem for Boise is going to be that they're going to be close at the start, and then Houston would have some huge chances down the stretch, while Boise has tomato cans. Boise has nothing left that they're going to get rewarded for at all.
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10-21-2016 03:32 PM |
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Atlanta
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 03:32 PM)stever20 Wrote: SOS is going to be extremely tough for Boise to overcome. The problem for Boise is going to be that they're going to be close at the start, and then Houston would have some huge chances down the stretch, while Boise has tomato cans. Boise has nothing left that they're going to get rewarded for at all.
Yep, the only way BSU gets serious consideration is if UH gets beat in conference. I'm not even sure BSU gets the nod over UH if UH loses close to UL but wins the AAC. BSU probably doesn't get in if Navy wins out either, simply because Navy seems to get ratings preference. It gets tight if either Memphis or USF win the AAC going undefeated the rest of the way. Even then an undefeated AAC program the rest of the way (UH, Navy, USF or Memphis) have the schedules to be ahead of BSU.
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10-21-2016 03:47 PM |
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MWC Tex
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 03:29 PM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote: (10-21-2016 03:06 PM)MWC Tex Wrote: (10-21-2016 01:56 PM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote: Bsu will not be ranked over Houston (Oklahoma win and all). They can't get a win good enough to beat that, but, even if they were if Houston beats Louisville they would jump back over them. If Navy loses Houston would be garuanteed the spot even with an undefeated bsu( Marshall rule). Houston would have 2-top 10 wins and probably 2 in conference top 25 wins if Memphis and USF continue to win out. I don't think bsu would have a single top 25 win.
Its very plausible that BSU could be ranked over Houston. OU could lose another game or two. WSU could be 9-2 going in the game with UW and could be ranked and possibly ranked higher if OU loses another game.
Even if your unlikely scenario happened it still would not be as good as 4 top 25 wins that includes 2 top 10 wins in addition to a much stronger overall conference rating
Rankings at the end matter more than the beginning of the season. We'll see how it shakes out though.
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10-21-2016 03:54 PM |
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westernwilly
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 01:42 PM)msm96wolf Wrote: (10-21-2016 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-21-2016 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote: If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.
An AAC champ Houston versus an unbeaten Boise would make for a very interesting discussion at the final CFP conference.
I would bet on Boise getting the nod, but it would be very close and could easily go Houston's way. Tough to top "unbeaten".
In addition, the conference loss that was not even close. I would advise thinking the CFP will reflect the polls. As we have seen in the past, it has not. It would not shock me to see something like Boise 13, Houston 14 and CMU 25. So it will make it difficult to jump Boise if they go undefeated. I doubt there would be much complaining if Houston was picked over an undefeated CMU.
I am going to make the bold call here, in say that there is no way that CMU goes undefeated. They have a tough game tomorrow against Toledo. Though CMU is good, I do not think that they will be able to win tomorrow. Add to that, they have an even tougher task of having their loss to Virginia thrown out. Even if they do end up getting that one changed to a win, there is no way that the NCAA is going to overturn their blowout lost to WMU.
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10-21-2016 04:02 PM |
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DogPoundNorth
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RE: G5 Access Race
It is Boise or Houston's to lose. Houston wins out they get it over Boise based on wins vs OU and Louisville. If they don't Boise gets it (maybe even with one loose). WMU is at the back of the three because they played a very easy schedule and play in a god awful conference.
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10-21-2016 04:19 PM |
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Atlanta
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 04:19 PM)DogPoundNorth Wrote: It is Boise or Houston's to lose. Houston wins out they get it over Boise based on wins vs OU and Louisville. If they don't Boise gets it (maybe even with one loose). WMU is at the back of the three because they played a very easy schedule and play in a god awful conference.
Your statement implies UH controls its own destiny & it doesn't. Navy controls its destiny, USF controls its destiny & Memphis controls its destiny in the AAC. If any of those 3 schools goes undefeated the rest of the way, they win the AAC. And it the AAC champion that will be compared to BSU or WMU or possibly Troy for the NY6 bowl.
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10-21-2016 04:35 PM |
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stever20
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 04:35 PM)Atlanta Wrote: (10-21-2016 04:19 PM)DogPoundNorth Wrote: It is Boise or Houston's to lose. Houston wins out they get it over Boise based on wins vs OU and Louisville. If they don't Boise gets it (maybe even with one loose). WMU is at the back of the three because they played a very easy schedule and play in a god awful conference.
Your statement implies UH controls its own destiny & it doesn't. Navy controls its destiny, USF controls its destiny & Memphis controls its destiny in the AAC. If any of those 3 schools goes undefeated the rest of the way, they win the AAC. And it the AAC champion that will be compared to BSU or WMU or possibly Troy for the NY6 bowl.
And if Memphis wins vs Navy, right then, Houston controls its own destiny.
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10-21-2016 04:43 PM |
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msm96wolf
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RE: G5 Access Race
[/quote]
Um, you DO know what the polls say right now. Houston 11, Boise 14. Plus Houston has by far the best 2 opponents left in Louisville and Memphis. Actually best 3, as UCF by the ESPN FPI is stronger than Air Force. So where will Boise get the juice to pass Houston?
[/quote]
Yes but the AP and Coaches Poll are not what matters or even predictors. It is the CFP Committee members that vote. No one will know until week 10. Look 2015 Week 10 (First CFP Poll)
RK (CFP) TEAM RK (AP) TEAM RK (Coach) TEAM
1 Clemson 1 Ohio State(39) 1 Ohio State(48)
2 LSU 2 Baylor(6) 2 Baylor(9)
3 Ohio State 3 Clemson(6) 3 TCU(4)
4 Alabama 4 LSU(5) 4 LSU(1)
5 Notre Dame 5 TCU(4) 5 Clemson(2)
6 Baylor 6 Michigan State 6 Michigan State
7 Michigan State 7 Alabama(1) 7 Alabama
8 TCU 8 Notre Dame 8 Stanford
9 Iowa 9 Stanford 9 Notre Dame
10 Florida 10 Iowa 10 Oklahoma State
11 Stanford 11 Florida 11 Iowa
12 Utah 12 Oklahoma State 12 Florida
13 Memphis 13 Utah 13 Oklahoma
14 Oklahoma State 14 Oklahoma 14 Utah
15 Oklahoma 15 Memphis 15 Florida State
16 Florida State 16 Michigan 16 Memphis
17 Michigan 17 Florida State 17 Michigan
18 Ole Miss 18 Houston 18 Houston
19 Texas A&M 19 Ole Miss 19 Ole Miss
20 Mississippi State 20 Toledo 20 Toledo
21 Northwestern 21 North Carolina 21 North Carolina
22 Temple 22 UCLA 22 UCLA
23 UCLA 23 Temple 23 Temple
24 Toledo 24 Mississippi State 24 Texas A&M
25 Houston 25 Texas A&M 25 Mississippi State
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10-21-2016 04:46 PM |
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quo vadis
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 10:45 AM)stever20 Wrote: (10-21-2016 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-21-2016 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote: If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.
An AAC champ Houston versus an unbeaten Boise would make for a very interesting discussion at the final CFP conference.
I would bet on Boise getting the nod, but it would be very close and could easily go Houston's way. Tough to top "unbeaten".
it wouldn't be all that close even. Unbeaten just does not mean as much today as it used to.
Houston could go to an NY6 bowl even if they don't get the automatic G5 spot. Maybe play Boise in the Cotton Bowl?
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10-21-2016 05:56 PM |
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msm96wolf
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RE: G5 Access Race
Think it will be safe to say the new order is the following
1. Boise Undefeated
2. WMU Undefeated
3. Navy - 1 loss (Actually worse loss than Troy's)
4. Troy - 1 loss (Clemson loss by 6)
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10-22-2016 09:43 PM |
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quo vadis
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-22-2016 09:43 PM)msm96wolf Wrote: Think it will be safe to say the new order is the following
1. Boise Undefeated
2. WMU Undefeated
3. Navy - 1 loss (Actually worse loss than Troy's)
4. Troy - 1 loss (Clemson loss by 6)
Yes, Houston has gone from Big 12 bid and playoffs to maybe the St Pete Bowl?
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10-22-2016 09:45 PM |
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fishpro1098
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-22-2016 09:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-22-2016 09:43 PM)msm96wolf Wrote: Think it will be safe to say the new order is the following
1. Boise Undefeated
2. WMU Undefeated
3. Navy - 1 loss (Actually worse loss than Troy's)
4. Troy - 1 loss (Clemson loss by 6)
Yes, Houston has gone from Big 12 bid and playoffs to maybe the St Pete Bowl?
Boca Raton against the MAC.
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10-22-2016 10:03 PM |
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westophilia
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-22-2016 10:03 PM)fishpro1098 Wrote: (10-22-2016 09:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-22-2016 09:43 PM)msm96wolf Wrote: Think it will be safe to say the new order is the following
1. Boise Undefeated
2. WMU Undefeated
3. Navy - 1 loss (Actually worse loss than Troy's)
4. Troy - 1 loss (Clemson loss by 6)
Yes, Houston has gone from Big 12 bid and playoffs to maybe the St Pete Bowl?
Boca Raton against the MAC.
.
How's that P6 campaign looking, Mike?
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10-22-2016 10:11 PM |
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Bronco'14
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RE: G5 Access Race
I was reading this thread earlier today, seeing it was all Houston talk and no WMU talk even tho Houston had 1 loss and WMU was undefeated, thinking 'Well, we'll see.'
WMU still very much alive.
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10-22-2016 10:22 PM |
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domer1978
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-22-2016 10:22 PM)Bronco14 Wrote: I was reading this thread earlier today, seeing it was all Houston talk and no WMU talk even tho Houston had 1 loss and WMU was undefeated, thinking 'Well, we'll see.'
WMU still very much alive.
Hope you guys get it.
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10-22-2016 10:30 PM |
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BruceMcF
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RE: G5 Access Race
(10-21-2016 11:56 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: (10-21-2016 11:53 AM)MplsBison Wrote: OK fair arguments.
Why wouldn't the Big Ten #3 or SEC #3 that doesn't go to the Orange bowl be ranked higher than Houston?
I apologize for my complete ignorance on this subject but is there a rule about if you are ranked at a certain level you get an automatic "at large" access bowl bid?
After all contractual obligations are fulfilled ... P5 champions are at a NY6 bowl, the highest CFP committee ranked Go5 champion is at a NY6 bowl, Big Ten #2 or SEC #2 are at the Orange Bowl in its eight years when it is a non-CFP semifinal, subject to Big Ten and SEC each appearing at least three times, etc. ... with various fallbacks if the conference champion Contract Bowl is serving as the CFP semi-final bowl ...
... the remaining at-large spots are filled by highest committee ranking outstanding.
Since it's the committee ranking, that in effect means they are picked by the committee.
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2016 12:00 AM by BruceMcF.)
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10-22-2016 11:02 PM |
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stever20
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RE: G5 Access Race
well the G5 race is totally Boise's to lose right now.
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10-22-2016 11:03 PM |
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MplsBison
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RE: G5 Access Race
Which they are going to lose, to Wyoming!!
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2016 12:10 PM by MplsBison.)
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10-23-2016 10:05 AM |
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