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Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
The ACC Network is going to happen. Those opining otherwise are tilting at windmills.
07-18-2017 11:04 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
The only way any kind of pie-in-the-sky scenarios, like this, work out is for the era of conferences acting as independent, self-promoting units to die and for a new era of the CFA on steroids, for TV purposes, to be born.

Don't think the TV networks want that, because it would push college football TV contracts even closer toward the NFL TV contracts.
07-18-2017 11:08 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 11:08 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  The only way any kind of pie-in-the-sky scenarios, like this, work out is for the era of conferences acting as independent, self-promoting units to die and for a new era of the CFA on steroids, for TV purposes, to be born.

Don't think the TV networks want that, because it would push college football TV contracts even closer toward the NFL TV contracts.

In the scenarios I present, the conferences are acting in their own interests, which happen to lead to four 16-team power conferences. It's quite possible that such an arrangement could occur without the need for grander oversight by the NCAA, a CFA analog, or the TV networks.
07-18-2017 11:16 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
If by quite possible you're meaning a range of 0.0001% to 0.001%, sure.
07-18-2017 11:21 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 11:21 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  If by quite possible you're meaning a range of 0.0001% to 0.001%, sure.

What specifically do you think makes, say, the most recent scenario I presented, so implausible?

With the likely breakdown of the Big 12 sometime around 2023-25, all the schools will be looking for new homes. While at least two are assured a power conference home, the others may be desperate enough to take a smaller share of a conference's payouts just to join. This improves the probability of the SEC and Pac-16 adds in the most recent scenario I presented. Additionally, since there are apparently no penalties for leaving the SEC, Missouri's accepting a Big Ten invite to balance out Kansas is not so incredible. Is Texas to the Pac and OU to the SEC so unlikely? ND as a full ACC member might seem improbable, but with Navy, BC, and Pitt as annual in-conference opponents, USC and Stanford retained as annual OOC matchups, a larger cut of the ACC Network payouts, and a decent shot at the CFP, the Irish wouldn't have it all that bad.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 11:47 AM by Nerdlinger.)
07-18-2017 11:46 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
It has all already been said. For the Big Ten, Missouri will never be offered an invitation ... it's in the SEC. And Purdue is just as big, if not bigger, of a rival for Illinois than NW. And doubt that four divisions become the norm any time soon.
07-18-2017 11:52 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 11:52 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  It has all already been said. For the Big Ten, Missouri will never be offered an invitation ... it's in the SEC. And Purdue is just as big, if not bigger, of a rival for Illinois than NW. And doubt that four divisions become the norm any time soon.

If the Big Ten acquired Kansas but could not land either OU or UT, wouldn't they still want a valuable 16th school to balance out the schedule? (And yes, I know they had 11 for almost 20 years, but that was before divisions.) Their other options are limited. Due to the ACC GOR, ND's off the table even if they opt not to join the ACC as a full member. All that's left is Iowa State, and they offer basically nothing to the Big Ten. Missouri moving to the Big Ten is in their mutual interest at that point.

There are still two 8-team divisions in each conference (see the OP for details). The 4-team pods just rotate between the divisions. As for Illinois/Purdue, what would you say about an alignment like this?

Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
South: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
West: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Northwestern

Protected crossovers: Illinois/Purdue, Michigan/Ohio State
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 12:22 PM by Nerdlinger.)
07-18-2017 12:10 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
Sure, Missouri is more valuable than Iowa St ... so would be Alabama.

It's fine for fun, but it's nothing more than for fun.
07-18-2017 12:27 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 12:27 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Sure, Missouri is more valuable than Iowa St ... so would be Alabama.

It's fine for fun, but it's nothing more than for fun.

The Big Ten would reject Alabama for not being either Notre Dame or an AAU school. 03-wink
07-18-2017 12:31 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 11:46 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:21 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  If by quite possible you're meaning a range of 0.0001% to 0.001%, sure.

What specifically do you think makes, say, the most recent scenario I presented, so implausible?

With the likely breakdown of the Big 12 sometime around 2023-25, all the schools will be looking for new homes. While at least two are assured a power conference home, the others may be desperate enough to take a smaller share of a conference's payouts just to join. This improves the probability of the SEC and Pac-16 adds in the most recent scenario I presented. Additionally, since there are apparently no penalties for leaving the SEC, Missouri's accepting a Big Ten invite to balance out Kansas is not so incredible. Is Texas to the Pac and OU to the SEC so unlikely? ND as a full ACC member might seem improbable, but with Navy, BC, and Pitt as annual in-conference opponents, USC and Stanford retained as annual OOC matchups, a larger cut of the ACC Network payouts, and a decent shot at the CFP, the Irish wouldn't have it all that bad.


ND already has this. The ACC announced last summer that ND would get a full share of any network payouts, even without football.
07-18-2017 01:07 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:07 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:46 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:21 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  If by quite possible you're meaning a range of 0.0001% to 0.001%, sure.

What specifically do you think makes, say, the most recent scenario I presented, so implausible?

With the likely breakdown of the Big 12 sometime around 2023-25, all the schools will be looking for new homes. While at least two are assured a power conference home, the others may be desperate enough to take a smaller share of a conference's payouts just to join. This improves the probability of the SEC and Pac-16 adds in the most recent scenario I presented. Additionally, since there are apparently no penalties for leaving the SEC, Missouri's accepting a Big Ten invite to balance out Kansas is not so incredible. Is Texas to the Pac and OU to the SEC so unlikely? ND as a full ACC member might seem improbable, but with Navy, BC, and Pitt as annual in-conference opponents, USC and Stanford retained as annual OOC matchups, a larger cut of the ACC Network payouts, and a decent shot at the CFP, the Irish wouldn't have it all that bad.


ND already has this. The ACC announced last summer that ND would get a full share of any network payouts, even without football.

Interesting. I wonder if they'd have to offer an even larger share for ND to join as full.
07-18-2017 01:11 PM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:11 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:07 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:46 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:21 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  If by quite possible you're meaning a range of 0.0001% to 0.001%, sure.

What specifically do you think makes, say, the most recent scenario I presented, so implausible?

With the likely breakdown of the Big 12 sometime around 2023-25, all the schools will be looking for new homes. While at least two are assured a power conference home, the others may be desperate enough to take a smaller share of a conference's payouts just to join. This improves the probability of the SEC and Pac-16 adds in the most recent scenario I presented. Additionally, since there are apparently no penalties for leaving the SEC, Missouri's accepting a Big Ten invite to balance out Kansas is not so incredible. Is Texas to the Pac and OU to the SEC so unlikely? ND as a full ACC member might seem improbable, but with Navy, BC, and Pitt as annual in-conference opponents, USC and Stanford retained as annual OOC matchups, a larger cut of the ACC Network payouts, and a decent shot at the CFP, the Irish wouldn't have it all that bad.


ND already has this. The ACC announced last summer that ND would get a full share of any network payouts, even without football.

Interesting. I wonder if they'd have to offer an even larger share for ND to join as full.

That would not matter.
07-18-2017 01:20 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:20 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:11 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:07 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:46 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:21 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  If by quite possible you're meaning a range of 0.0001% to 0.001%, sure.

What specifically do you think makes, say, the most recent scenario I presented, so implausible?

With the likely breakdown of the Big 12 sometime around 2023-25, all the schools will be looking for new homes. While at least two are assured a power conference home, the others may be desperate enough to take a smaller share of a conference's payouts just to join. This improves the probability of the SEC and Pac-16 adds in the most recent scenario I presented. Additionally, since there are apparently no penalties for leaving the SEC, Missouri's accepting a Big Ten invite to balance out Kansas is not so incredible. Is Texas to the Pac and OU to the SEC so unlikely? ND as a full ACC member might seem improbable, but with Navy, BC, and Pitt as annual in-conference opponents, USC and Stanford retained as annual OOC matchups, a larger cut of the ACC Network payouts, and a decent shot at the CFP, the Irish wouldn't have it all that bad.


ND already has this. The ACC announced last summer that ND would get a full share of any network payouts, even without football.

Interesting. I wonder if they'd have to offer an even larger share for ND to join as full.

That would not matter.

You mean extra money wouldn't be a factor in ND joining as full? What about the other benefits in the scenario? (annual games with BC/Pitt and better chance at CFP while retaining all three current annual rivalries)
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 01:25 PM by Nerdlinger.)
07-18-2017 01:24 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:24 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:20 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:11 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:07 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:46 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  What specifically do you think makes, say, the most recent scenario I presented, so implausible?

With the likely breakdown of the Big 12 sometime around 2023-25, all the schools will be looking for new homes. While at least two are assured a power conference home, the others may be desperate enough to take a smaller share of a conference's payouts just to join. This improves the probability of the SEC and Pac-16 adds in the most recent scenario I presented. Additionally, since there are apparently no penalties for leaving the SEC, Missouri's accepting a Big Ten invite to balance out Kansas is not so incredible. Is Texas to the Pac and OU to the SEC so unlikely? ND as a full ACC member might seem improbable, but with Navy, BC, and Pitt as annual in-conference opponents, USC and Stanford retained as annual OOC matchups, a larger cut of the ACC Network payouts, and a decent shot at the CFP, the Irish wouldn't have it all that bad.


ND already has this. The ACC announced last summer that ND would get a full share of any network payouts, even without football.

Interesting. I wonder if they'd have to offer an even larger share for ND to join as full.

That would not matter.

You mean extra money wouldn't be a factor in ND joining as full? What about the other benefits in the scenario? (annual games with BC/Pitt and better chance at CFP while retaining all three current annual rivalries)

Nope. The value in retaining scheduling flexibility under the current agreement with the ACC, in addition to keeping Navy/Stanford/USC as annual rivalry games, are worth much more to the mission and the goals of Notre Dame and its athletic department than a couple of extra million in TV revenue.

Notre Dame wants a yearly national schedule. They want series with the top college football programs in the country. They want to keep their current yearly rivalries in tact. The partnership and affiliation with the ACC was arranged due to its membership compared to the B1G and Big 12. With Duke, UNC, Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State, Notre Dame is linked by by strong institutional, academic and athletic peers. That's not even possible with a B1G or Big 12 membership.

Those wishing for ND to become a full-member of the ACC (or any conference) are waiting for an event that will never happen. ND is simply too valuable as an independent.

07-coffee3
07-18-2017 01:46 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:46 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:24 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  You mean extra money wouldn't be a factor in ND joining as full? What about the other benefits in the scenario? (annual games with BC/Pitt and better chance at CFP while retaining all three current annual rivalries)

Nope. The value in retaining scheduling flexibility under the current agreement with the ACC, in addition to keeping Navy/Stanford/USC as annual rivalry games, are worth much more to the mission and the goals of Notre Dame and its athletic department than a couple of extra million in TV revenue.

Notre Dame wants a yearly national schedule. They want series with the top college football programs in the country. They want to keep their current yearly rivalries in tact. The partnership and affiliation with the ACC was arranged due to its membership compared to the B1G and Big 12. With Duke, UNC, Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State, Notre Dame is linked by by strong institutional, academic and athletic peers. That's not even possible with a B1G or Big 12 membership.

Those wishing for ND to become a full-member of the ACC (or any conference) are waiting for an event that will never happen. ND is simply too valuable as an independent.

07-coffee3

Personally, I don't really care whether Notre Dame becomes a full member or not. I was just trying to find a plausible route to 16 football schools for the ACC. Maybe they'd just add Cincinnati and UConn and be done with it.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 01:58 PM by Nerdlinger.)
07-18-2017 01:50 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:24 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:20 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:11 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:07 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 11:46 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  What specifically do you think makes, say, the most recent scenario I presented, so implausible?

With the likely breakdown of the Big 12 sometime around 2023-25, all the schools will be looking for new homes. While at least two are assured a power conference home, the others may be desperate enough to take a smaller share of a conference's payouts just to join. This improves the probability of the SEC and Pac-16 adds in the most recent scenario I presented. Additionally, since there are apparently no penalties for leaving the SEC, Missouri's accepting a Big Ten invite to balance out Kansas is not so incredible. Is Texas to the Pac and OU to the SEC so unlikely? ND as a full ACC member might seem improbable, but with Navy, BC, and Pitt as annual in-conference opponents, USC and Stanford retained as annual OOC matchups, a larger cut of the ACC Network payouts, and a decent shot at the CFP, the Irish wouldn't have it all that bad.


ND already has this. The ACC announced last summer that ND would get a full share of any network payouts, even without football.

Interesting. I wonder if they'd have to offer an even larger share for ND to join as full.

That would not matter.

You mean extra money wouldn't be a factor in ND joining as full? What about the other benefits in the scenario? (annual games with BC/Pitt and better chance at CFP while retaining all three current annual rivalries)


Have you read Jack Swarbrick's 7/14/17 comments? I posted them in the "ACC 16" thread.

ND is solidly dug in on football independence and has no interest in joining the ACC in that sport, no matter what enticements there may be (short of a P4 conference champ only playoff scenario).

More money is not that relevant. ND fears losing money in withheld alumni donations for surrendering football independence (often threatened by well heeled alumni)in far greater amounts than any additional TV money that ACC football membership might bring.

This is an institutional decision, not an athletic department one. The tail isn't wagging the dog here.

In other words, ND's stance is largely unrelated to athletics at all. It feels that football independence is more valuable to the institution itself, as a whole, than any other type of football affiliation.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 01:58 PM by TerryD.)
07-18-2017 01:53 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:53 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Have you read Jack Swarbrick's 7/14/17 comments? I posted them in the "ACC 16" thread.

ND is solidly dug in on football independence and has no interest in joining the ACC in that sport, no matter what enticements there may be (short of a P4 conference champ only playoff scenario).

More money is not that relevant. ND fears losing money in withheld alumni donations for surrendering football independence (often threatened by well heeled alumni)in far greater amounts than any additional TV money that ACC football membership might bring.

This is an institutional decision, not an athletic department one. The tail isn't wagging the dog here.

In other words, ND's stance is largely unrelated to athletics at all. It feels that football independence is more valuable to the institution itself, as a whole, than any other type of football affiliation.

Good to know. Schedule flexibility is definitely an advantage of remaining independent, so I can see their point.
07-18-2017 02:09 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:46 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:24 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  You mean extra money wouldn't be a factor in ND joining as full? What about the other benefits in the scenario? (annual games with BC/Pitt and better chance at CFP while retaining all three current annual rivalries)

Nope. The value in retaining scheduling flexibility under the current agreement with the ACC, in addition to keeping Navy/Stanford/USC as annual rivalry games, are worth much more to the mission and the goals of Notre Dame and its athletic department than a couple of extra million in TV revenue.

Notre Dame wants a yearly national schedule. They want series with the top college football programs in the country. They want to keep their current yearly rivalries in tact. The partnership and affiliation with the ACC was arranged due to its membership compared to the B1G and Big 12. With Duke, UNC, Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State, Notre Dame is linked by by strong institutional, academic and athletic peers. That's not even possible with a B1G or Big 12 membership.

Those wishing for ND to become a full-member of the ACC (or any conference) are waiting for an event that will never happen. ND is simply too valuable as an independent.

07-coffee3

Personally, I don't really care whether Notre Dame becomes a full member or not. I was just trying to find a plausible route to 16 football schools for the ACC. Maybe they'd just add Cincinnati and UConn and be done with it.

I concur. The ACC should make its future plans in the knowledge that ND football will not be included.

But, other than on message boards, I don't think that the country is pining away for 4 x 16.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 02:27 PM by TerryD.)
07-18-2017 02:26 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 02:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Good to know. Schedule flexibility is definitely an advantage of remaining independent, so I can see their point.

I doubt being independent is anything of an advantage to ND, in the sense of having the top nationally competitive football team in the country. That perhaps used to be a thing, but hasn't been for some time.

And when you look at ND's schedules lately, the drop dead minimum games it has to have every year could still likely be accommodated within the framework of being a full football member of a P5 conf.


At this point, it's nothing more than maintaining independence only for the sake of maintaining an otherwise worthless tradition, because some rich guys say so. If you're rich, you don't need an actual reason to make something happen, you can just throw money at it simply because that's what you believe.
07-18-2017 02:53 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 02:53 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 02:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Good to know. Schedule flexibility is definitely an advantage of remaining independent, so I can see their point.

I doubt being independent is anything of an advantage to ND, in the sense of having the top nationally competitive football team in the country. That perhaps used to be a thing, but hasn't been for some time.

And when you look at ND's schedules lately, the drop dead minimum games it has to have every year could still likely be accommodated within the framework of being a full football member of a P5 conf.


At this point, it's nothing more than maintaining independence only for the sake of maintaining an otherwise worthless tradition, because some rich guys say so. If you're rich, you don't need an actual reason to make something happen, you can just throw money at it simply because that's what you believe.

ND's SOS has been rather high. They're not exactly picking creampuffs to play. They actually haven't played any I-AA/FCS teams since at least as far back as 1998. By playing quality teams around the country, they also increase their national presence and recruiting. This of course doesn't work for most independent teams, as they do not have the national following that ND has established.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 03:10 PM by Nerdlinger.)
07-18-2017 03:07 PM
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