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Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
Alabama isn't independent, and routinely plays a FCS team every year in its limited non-conference schedule

Which school has the more competitive, higher viewed, and more valuable football team?


So like I said, there really isn't much advantage at all to ND's independence .... depending on your criteria for what's important.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 03:12 PM by MplsBison.)
07-18-2017 03:10 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Online
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Post: #62
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 02:53 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 02:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Good to know. Schedule flexibility is definitely an advantage of remaining independent, so I can see their point.

I doubt being independent is anything of an advantage to ND, in the sense of having the top nationally competitive football team in the country. That perhaps used to be a thing, but hasn't been for some time.

And when you look at ND's schedules lately, the drop dead minimum games it has to have every year could still likely be accommodated within the framework of being a full football member of a P5 conf.


At this point, it's nothing more than maintaining independence only for the sake of maintaining an otherwise worthless tradition, because some rich guys say so. If you're rich, you don't need an actual reason to make something happen, you can just throw money at it simply because that's what you believe.

That's an ignorant viewpoint of why Notre Dame values its independence (and why the networks are in favor and support of it). Scheduling is just a part of the rationale. The other part is its own TV deal. ND won't give up its lucrative and valuable TV deal just to join a conference, especially when its current set-up is preventing it from competing for national championships. The ACC won't pay ND what is is making on top of the unique payment allotments to the school just to get them as a full member.
07-18-2017 03:28 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
That's a load though because Notre Dame could be making more on TV any time it wanted to pull the trigger and join the Big Ten ... but it never will.
07-18-2017 03:59 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 03:59 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  That's a load though because Notre Dame could be making more on TV any time it wanted to pull the trigger and join the Big Ten ... but it never will.

Under the ACC GOR that ND signed and that expires in 2036, if they forsake football independence, they can only join the ACC. Buying their way out well before then may be cost-prohibitive.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 04:06 PM by Nerdlinger.)
07-18-2017 04:03 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
Fine, but they knew that before they signed.

Quite obvious my point has been made: ND Big alumni use emotionally driven arguments for keeping ND independent rather than factual, competitively driven arguments. That is their agenda, and their religion, and they are proud to be ignorant of anything opposing it.
07-18-2017 04:41 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Online
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Post: #66
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 03:59 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  That's a load though because Notre Dame could be making more on TV any time it wanted to pull the trigger and join the Big Ten ... but it never will.

And potentially lose out on yearly USC/Stanford/Navy matchups and the annual matchups of Florida State/Clemson/Pittsburgh/Miami/Boston College? Not happening. Joining the B1G, or any conference, is not in the best interest of Notre Dame, nor does it provide more value.

Notre Dame is a nationally elite university. It's athletic program is a function of its mission. While Notre Dame were to bring incredible valuable to any conference it were to join, no conference can provide the same value that Notre Dame desires with its independence. It's as simple as that.
07-18-2017 04:45 PM
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ArQ Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(06-13-2017 10:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Hi all! I'm new to the board. I'd love to see a 4x16 power conference realignment, even if simply for the symmetry and balance of it. Unfortunately, plausible routes that lead there are not so easy to envision. Below is what I think to be the most plausible route (at the moment). Feel free to critique my scenario and to post your own!

With the expiration of the Big 12's grant of media rights looming in 2025, the collapse of the conference seems imminent. Those members that have escape routes begin feeling them out, while the other conferences circle like sharks around a sinking ship.

The Pac-12 strikes first, securing the Longhorns and sealing the fate of the Big 12. Part of the deal is that three other schools in UT's backyard tag along. The Sooners balk at the offer and instead opt for the SEC. A relieved Oklahoma State also receives an invitation from the SEC (at the urging of OU and the Oklahoma state legislature). Fortunately, there isn't enough bad blood between UT and OU over the split to prevent an annual out-of-conference Red River Showdown.

The move by OU limits the Longhorns' options for travel partners. Texas Tech is deemed acceptable by the Pac, as it was when the first offer to UT was made back in 2010. The Pac sneers at TCU for being a religious school, but their academics are nothing to scoff at, so the Horned Frogs also receive an invite. In a situation similar to the formation of the Big 12 in 1996, Baylor angles for the fourth Texas slot. However, the scandal-ridden Bears are turned down, as the Pac invites Houston instead and in this manner becomes the Pac-16.

The Big Ten cannot pass up the chance to add to its basketball chops and pick up another state, admitting Kansas as its 15th member. While the Big Ten sat at an odd number of schools for two decades before the acquisition of Nebraska, it's not an ideal situation from a scheduling standpoint, so a 16th member is sought. Iowa State meets the basic qualifications but offers nothing new. The Big Ten would love to add Notre Dame, though the Irish are yoked to the ACC until the expiration of that conference's GOR in 2036.

The 16th member of the Big Ten ends up being a school which had recently begged to get in: Missouri. A school's voluntarily leaving the SEC had seemed unthinkable for many, but the Big Ten is a better fit for the Tigers in terms of culture and academics, and the timing is right. The defection is facilitated by the SEC's lack of a financial penalty for departing schools. Indignant over the coup, the SEC taps an ecstatic West Virginia as a replacement.

By this time, it has become evident that 16-school conferences are what's in. The ACC, as the weakest remaining power conference, must go with the flow or risking falling too far behind. Notre Dame also sees the writing on the wall and finally relinquishes its football independence for a spot in the ACC and a decent chance at a CFP championship. The ACC considers adding Cincinnati over Connecticut to better bolster its football reputation, but ultimately selects UConn for its stellar hoops.

Sadly, Iowa State and Kansas State fall down the AAC or MWC along with Baylor.

Thus we arrive at a 4x16 power conference alignment. (Here's a map!) Each conference consists of four 4-team "pods," which alternate between two 8-team divisions every two years. For two years it's the "Northeast" and "Southwest" Divisions, and for the next two it's the "Northwest" and "Southeast" Divisions.

ACC
East: Boston College, Connecticut, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
West: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Protected crossovers: Boston College/Notre Dame, North Carolina/Virginia

Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
South: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
West: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Protected crossovers: Illinois/Northwestern, Michigan/Ohio State

Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Protected crossovers: none

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Protected crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia

Annual interconference matchups
Clemson/South Carolina
Florida/Florida State
Georgia/Georgia Tech
Kentucky/Louisville
Notre Dame/USC
Oklahoma/Texas

The conference schedule is 9 games across the board. For two years, each team plays a home-and-home against the 3 teams in its pod, the 4 other teams in its division, and 2 teams from the "opposite" pod (i.e., North vs. South, East vs. West). For the next two years, each team plays a home-and-home against the 3 teams in its pod again, the 4 other teams in its division (this time it's a different pod of 4), and the other 2 teams from the opposite pod. This way, with the exception of protected crossovers, each team plays every other team in its conference twice in 4 years.

Conference championships proceed between the two divisions as they do currently. The CFP becomes a de facto (if not de jure) competition between the champions of the four remaining power conferences.

So what do you all think? Poke (constructive) holes in this scenario if you see any, and submit your own scenarios! :)

Pretty good choices and placements. The only flaw is that Baylor is already in P5 while Houston is not. So Baylor should be in PAC16 and Houston should remain in G5. Also Cincinnati and UConn will fight for the last P5 spot with the former has the upper hand because its football program is much better than the latter.
07-18-2017 04:48 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 04:48 PM)ArQ Wrote:  Pretty good choices and placements. The only flaw is that Baylor is already in P5 while Houston is not. So Baylor should be in PAC16 and Houston should remain in G5. Also Cincinnati and UConn will fight for the last P5 spot with the former has the upper hand because its football program is much better than the latter.

Even not taking into account Baylor's scandals, I imagine that the Pac would much rather prefer secular public Houston than religious private Baylor. TCU is religious private like Baylor but is more liberal and in a much larger metro area.

Good point about Cincinnati over UConn. If ND doesn't join up full, there may actually be room for both of them.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 05:01 PM by Nerdlinger.)
07-18-2017 05:00 PM
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TerryD Online
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Post: #69
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 04:41 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Fine, but they knew that before they signed.

Quite obvious my point has been made: ND Big alumni use emotionally driven arguments for keeping ND independent rather than factual, competitively driven arguments. That is their agenda, and their religion, and they are proud to be ignorant of anything opposing it.

It isn't just the alumni, it is the administration as well.

Both believe very strongly that it is in the best interests of the university that its football team remain outside of any conference.

It is their decision to make, and they have made it. Your opinion, as well as mine or anyone else's, is totally irrelevant to this situation.
07-18-2017 05:40 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 04:45 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  And potentially lose out on yearly USC/Stanford/Navy matchups and the annual matchups of Florida State/Clemson/Pittsburgh/Miami/Boston College? Not happening. Joining the B1G, or any conference, is not in the best interest of Notre Dame, nor does it provide more value.

Notre Dame is a nationally elite university. It's athletic program is a function of its mission. While Notre Dame were to bring incredible valuable to any conference it were to join, no conference can provide the same value that Notre Dame desires with its independence. It's as simple as that.

The last part is true ... because they've arbitrarily defined it that way. While I'm sure that Notre Dame, like many east coast private schools, can conjure up some statistics that don't actually matter to anything, like acceptance rate, to "prove" how elite they are, the real fact is that Notre Dame isn't even as highly ranked as some of the public schools in the Big Ten.

Sure, it's a great school .... so are Washington U STL and Carnegie Mellon, neither of which play football games against teams from across the country.

Nine Big Ten games, and USC/Stanford/Navy every year if it requires Calif every year, or replace Stanford with a rotating opponent if not. Perfectly doable.

But they never will, because of emotion, not logic.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 05:43 PM by MplsBison.)
07-18-2017 05:40 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 05:40 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Both believe very strongly that it is in the best interests of the university that its football team remain outside of any conference.

That's exactly my point -- beliefs don't have to be rational, and many times aren't.

ND isn't a higher ranked school than Michigan, and it's football team isn't better than Alabama. Neither of which are independent.

Therefore, proven logically, independence doesn't directly benefit the school ... even if it did in the past ... rather only because of artificial boundaries placed on it by wealthy alumni.
07-18-2017 05:42 PM
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TerryD Online
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Post: #72
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 05:42 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 05:40 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Both believe very strongly that it is in the best interests of the university that its football team remain outside of any conference.

That's exactly my point -- beliefs don't have to be rational, and many times aren't.

ND isn't a higher ranked school than Michigan, and it's football team isn't better than Alabama. Neither of which are independent.

Therefore, proven logically, independence doesn't directly benefit the school ... even if it did in the past ... rather only because of artificial boundaries placed on it by wealthy alumni.

It strongly believes it helps recruit students from all over the country.

You don't have to agree with them. Its ok.
07-18-2017 05:45 PM
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TerryD Online
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Post: #73
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 05:42 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 05:40 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Both believe very strongly that it is in the best interests of the university that its football team remain outside of any conference.

That's exactly my point -- beliefs don't have to be rational, and many times aren't.

ND isn't a higher ranked school than Michigan, and it's football team isn't better than Alabama. Neither of which are independent.

Therefore, proven logically, independence doesn't directly benefit the school ... even if it did in the past ... rather only because of artificial boundaries placed on it by wealthy alumni.

I disagree.

But if true, so what and why does that concern you so much?

It is solely ND's decision to make.

It is comfortable with its decision. That is all that matters.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 05:49 PM by TerryD.)
07-18-2017 05:46 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 05:45 PM)TerryD Wrote:  It strongly believes it helps recruit students from all over the country.

Duke recruits students from all over the country, and isn't independent.


(07-18-2017 05:46 PM)TerryD Wrote:  It is solely ND's decision to make.

Never implied otherwise.
07-18-2017 05:53 PM
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Post: #75
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 05:53 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 05:45 PM)TerryD Wrote:  It strongly believes it helps recruit students from all over the country.

Duke recruits students from all over the country, and isn't independent.


(07-18-2017 05:46 PM)TerryD Wrote:  It is solely ND's decision to make.

Never implied otherwise.

Very true, but Duke Football is not even in the same tier as Notre Dame Football.

I get that you are trying to justify Notre Dame needing to be in a conference, or that it is in its best interest to join a conference, but the fact you are trying to compare Notre Dame and Duke with regards to need in conference affiliation shows that you just don't understand how Notre Dame thinks or what they have shown to desire from its athletics program, specifically football.

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07-18-2017 08:17 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
Right, you conveniently ignore my original comparisons -- Michigan and Alabama -- and wait until I mention Duke to pounce.

If you want to go back and include all of the context of the discussion, then I'll respond to you. Sans that, your post is a nonsequitor.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 09:15 PM by MplsBison.)
07-18-2017 09:14 PM
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RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-18-2017 01:53 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is solidly dug in on football independence and has no interest in joining the ACC in that sport, no matter what enticements there may be (short of a P4 conference champ only playoff scenario).

This is an interesting point. In the event of a Big 12 collapse and a P4 scenario in the near future, what are the odds that the CFP becomes an official playoff between the P4 conference champs? The current CFP deal expires after the 2025 season, right around the time of the potential realignment, so it would be an ideal time to change the format.

This would formally rule out G# schools from playoff eligibility, even though they have virtually no chance of qualifying under the current system anyway. The P4 would still need the G# schools for extra home games and relatively easy wins, so perhaps a portion of the CFP payout would still go the G# as compensation.
07-19-2017 10:08 AM
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TerryD Online
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Post: #78
RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-19-2017 10:08 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:53 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is solidly dug in on football independence and has no interest in joining the ACC in that sport, no matter what enticements there may be (short of a P4 conference champ only playoff scenario).

This is an interesting point. In the event of a Big 12 collapse and a P4 scenario in the near future, what are the odds that the CFP becomes an official playoff between the P4 conference champs? The current CFP deal expires after the 2025 season, right around the time of the potential realignment, so it would be an ideal time to change the format.

This would formally rule out G# schools from playoff eligibility, even though they have virtually no chance of qualifying under the current system anyway. The P4 would still need the G# schools for extra home games and relatively easy wins, so perhaps a portion of the CFP payout would still go the G# as compensation.

Unlikely in that conferences like the SEC and Big Ten (and ACC) will want the chance to place two schools in the playoffs.
07-19-2017 10:17 AM
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RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-19-2017 10:17 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-19-2017 10:08 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:53 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is solidly dug in on football independence and has no interest in joining the ACC in that sport, no matter what enticements there may be (short of a P4 conference champ only playoff scenario).

This is an interesting point. In the event of a Big 12 collapse and a P4 scenario in the near future, what are the odds that the CFP becomes an official playoff between the P4 conference champs? The current CFP deal expires after the 2025 season, right around the time of the potential realignment, so it would be an ideal time to change the format.

This would formally rule out G# schools from playoff eligibility, even though they have virtually no chance of qualifying under the current system anyway. The P4 would still need the G# schools for extra home games and relatively easy wins, so perhaps a portion of the CFP payout would still go the G# as compensation.

Unlikely in that conferences like the SEC and Big Ten (and ACC) will want the chance to place two schools in the playoffs.

With a 4-team playoff, I wouldn't think the selection committee would take two schools from the same conference. With an 8-team playoff, sure, but I don't know how likely that is. The proposed lengthening of the season by a week (ostensibly for student-athlete rest) could be in preparation for a CFP expansion, though I would expect a 13-game regular season to be a more likely outcome.
07-19-2017 10:28 AM
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RE: Plausible Routes to a 4x16 Power Conference Alignment?
(07-19-2017 10:28 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-19-2017 10:17 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-19-2017 10:08 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-18-2017 01:53 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is solidly dug in on football independence and has no interest in joining the ACC in that sport, no matter what enticements there may be (short of a P4 conference champ only playoff scenario).

This is an interesting point. In the event of a Big 12 collapse and a P4 scenario in the near future, what are the odds that the CFP becomes an official playoff between the P4 conference champs? The current CFP deal expires after the 2025 season, right around the time of the potential realignment, so it would be an ideal time to change the format.

This would formally rule out G# schools from playoff eligibility, even though they have virtually no chance of qualifying under the current system anyway. The P4 would still need the G# schools for extra home games and relatively easy wins, so perhaps a portion of the CFP payout would still go the G# as compensation.

Unlikely in that conferences like the SEC and Big Ten (and ACC) will want the chance to place two schools in the playoffs.

With a 4-team playoff, I wouldn't think the selection committee would take two schools from the same conference. With an 8-team playoff, sure, but I don't know how likely that is. The proposed lengthening of the season by a week (ostensibly for student-athlete rest) could be in preparation for a CFP expansion, though I would expect a 13-game regular season to be a more likely outcome.

I think the committee under the right scenario and I'm not talking about the "every other conference champion has 3 losses" scenario.

Imagine this: Alabama and Florida each go undefeated in the SEC. They meet in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game and Alabama wins in OT or at least the score is within 7. I would bet money that both Alabama and Florida would be in the CFP regardless of the other conferences.
07-19-2017 10:38 AM
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