(07-19-2017 05:09 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 03:06 PM)TerryD Wrote:  That goes against ND's whole philosophy and stance on this issue.

ND wants a national schedule and the flexibility to schedule schools from every P5 conference.

What you propose would not allow that.

ND does not want to be "regionalized" by an eight or nine game conference schedule unless forced to at gunpoint.

I know that people want to find new and interesting ways for ND to join a football conference but ND won't unless it is forced to by its program becoming so degraded that no broadcast partner will offer them an individual contract or if a champs only playoff is established.

It will only join a football conference against its will and if forced by outside events, never by its desire to do so.

It has zero desire to do so. Everything ND has done since it joined the Big East as a partial member in 1995 has been designed to keep its football program out of the clutches of any conference.

The marginal "enticements" of getting to play BC and Pitt every year or a some more TV money are irrelevant to ND's position on this issue.

Here again are Jack Swarbrick's recent comments:



Indy Star interview with Jack Swarbrick (7/14/17):


Q: Switching gears, what would it take for Notre Dame to join the ACC full time in football?

A: You can always weigh some circumstance that would do it, but we don’t think that way and we are very comfortable with and focused on our independence because of the things it does for the university, not for us. If we didn’t have a broadcast partner, that would be one thing. But we have a great relationship with NBC and look forward to that continuing. I don’t foresee any change in philosophy which would ever cause us to do it.

[On the first day of ACC media days Thursday, conference Commissioner John Swofford was asked this same question. He said Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member is “not a point of discussion” between the university and the league. "There wasn’t an expectation that at some point in time Notre Dame would ask for full membership in football,” Swofford said. “That is not a point of discussion at this given point in time. Obviously, if Notre Dame reached the point where they wanted to have that discussion, we would readily sit down and speak with them about that."]

Q:Have you found that not having a 13th game or winning a conference is hurting Notre Dame as it pertains to the College Football Playoff?

A: There will be years where not having a conference championship works against us. We understand that, we factor it into our calculus. But, given the schedules we’re building, I’ll be very comfortable arguing most years that our 12 games compare favorably with everybody else’s 13. When you say a 13-game schedule is superior to our 12-game schedule, you have to compare all the games. We’re building schedules that I think will stand up to that comparison well. They’ll be very tough to navigate. No one will ever accuse us of backing in with the schedules we’ve built for the future.

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/col...467734001/


As you can see, this is not even a sports issue for ND, but rather an institutional one.

Right, but we're just talking hypothetically. And after all, things can change.

Right, I gotcha.

We could also all spontaneously turn into amphibious flying kangaroos with pontoon-like lower appendages....hypothetically. :)

Wrong. I can't turn into what I already am.

In this utopian/dystopian near-future (depending on your perspective), the P4 conferences have effectively made the CFP into a showdown between the conference champs via contracts with the major bowls. Championships for conferences with 16 teams have been expanded to 2 rounds, with the 2 division champs and 2 wild cards facing off. Each P4 conference has 16 teams in two 8-team divisions, with 4-team pods rotating between the divisions every two seasons (North+East/South+West, then North+West/South+East, and repeat). Since all P4 conferences have moved to a 9-game schedule here, each team is able to play every other team in their conference at least twice within 4 years (with the exception of teams with protected divisional crossovers, which may take, and cause some other teams to take, more time to play everyone).

The means by which the teams arrived in their conferences here are the same as in the OP, except the ACC took Cincinnati as its 16th instead of UConn. The arrangement of the pods is a bit different though. In the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC, I tried to balance out the pods competitively (while still somewhat respecting geography), either (A) by making all 4 pods roughly equal in average strength or (B) by making the North/South pair roughly equal to each other but significantly stronger or weaker than the East/West pair, which are also roughly equal to each other (the pods in each pair never share a division).

The greatly diminished Big 12 (no longer treated as a power conference) absorbs most of the remaining AAC schools. Navy football goes independent again without major Texas schools to play. The AAC remnants (Tulane, Tulsa, Wichita State) decide to create a more regional conference, bringing on CUSA West and Arkansas State. The rest of CUSA focuses eastward by adding App State, Georgia Southern, and JMU. The Sun Belt taps Missouri State for full membership and invites Liberty and NMSU as football-onlies. Rebuilding conferences aim for 10 football schools to maximize CFP payouts per school.

Here's a MAP of the P4 for your viewing pleasure!

ACC
East: Florida State, Miami-FL, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

Protected crossovers: North Carolina/Virginia

Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
South: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
West: Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Protected crossovers: Iowa/Wisconsin, Michigan/Ohio State

Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Protected crossovers: none

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
South: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West: LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Protected crossovers: Auburn/Georgia, Kentucky/Tennessee

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, SMU

American
East: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: North Texas, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA
Non-FB: Wichita State

CUSA
North: James Madison, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky
South: Appalachian State, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern

Sun Belt
East: Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Liberty* (ASUN), South Alabama, Troy
West: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri State, New Mexico State* (WAC), Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

FBS Independent
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Massachusetts* (A-10), Navy* (Patriot)

No change: MAC, MWC

* = football only (primary conference)

Notable annual non-conference matchups: Army/Navy, BYU/Utah, Clemson/South Carolina, Colorado/Colorado State, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern/Georgia State, Iowa/Iowa State, Kansas/Kansas State, Kentucky/Louisville, Navy/Notre Dame, Notre Dame/USC, Oklahoma/Texas, SMU/TCU

NY6 Bowls
Peach: ACC vs. SEC
Rose: B10 vs. P16
Orange: ACC vs. B10
Cotton: P16 vs. SEC
Fiesta: ACC vs. P16
Sugar: B10 vs. SEC

Bowl participants rotate in a three-year cycle. For example, in Year 1, the Rose Bowl serves as the CFP semifinal between the B10 and P16 champs. In Year 2, it's a non-CFP game between the #2 teams in the B10 and P16. And in Year 3, it's a non-CFP game between at-large teams. The top FBS team outside the P4 is guaranteed an at-large spot.

This whole scenario is not entirely unrealistic, IMO, although perhaps too logical to be very likely. One of many many possibilities.

(07-21-2017 12:18 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  OK, in this utopian/dystopian near-future (depending on your perspective), the P4 conferences have effectively made the CFP into a showdown between the conference champs. A 13th game has been added to the regular season, and championships for conferences with 16 teams have been expanded to 2 rounds, with the 2 division champs and 2 wild cards facing off. Each P4 conference has 16 teams in two 8-team divisions, with 4-team pods rotating between the divisions every season (North+East/South+West, then North+West/South+East, and repeat). Since all P4 conferences have moved to a 9-game schedule here, each team is able to play every other team in their conference at least once within 2 years (with the exception of teams with protected divisional crossovers, which may take, and cause some other teams to take, 3 years to play everyone).

The means by which the teams arrived in their conferences here are the same as in the OP, except the ACC took Cincinnati as its 16th instead of UConn. The arrangement of the pods is a bit different though. In the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC, I tried to balance out the pods competitively (while still somewhat respecting geography), either (A) by making all 4 pods roughly equal in average strength or (B) by making the North/South pair roughly equal to each other but significantly stronger or weaker than the East/West pair, which are also roughly equal to each other (the pods in each pair never share a division). The greatly diminished Big 12 absorbed almost all the remaining AAC schools, with UConn going independent in football and moving its non-football sports to the Big East.

Here's a MAP for your viewing pleasure!

ACC
East: Florida State, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

Protected crossovers: North Carolina/Virginia

Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
South: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Protected crossovers: Illinois/Northwestern, Michigan/Ohio State

Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Protected crossovers: none

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
South: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West: LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Protected crossovers: Auburn/Georgia, Kentucky/Tennessee

Big 12
North: East Carolina, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Temple, Tulsa
South: Baylor, Central Florida, Navy*, SMU, South Florida, Tulane

* football-only affiliate

FBS Independent
Army, BYU, Connecticut, etc.

Notable annual out-of-conference matchups: Army/Navy, Baylor/TCU, BYU/Utah, Clemson/South Carolina, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Iowa/Iowa State, Kansas/Kansas State, Kentucky/Louisville, Navy/Notre Dame, Notre Dame/USC, Oklahoma/Texas

Not entirely unrealistic, IMO, although perhaps too logical to be very likely. One of many many possibilities.

What if Texas goes Independent like Notre Dame? They want eastern exposure, so they would be looking to be like Notre Dame for playing 5 games against them. That means the PAC 16 lineup could be different since Texas Tech may not be all that interesting to the western schools. They may look at adding Boise State and San Diego State instead. They have said they will keep an alert eye on those two if they improved their academics even more which they were impressed when they added Colorado and Utah. This would give the state of Idaho off the table for any anti-trust lawsuit against the P5 or P4.

Now, we have to reorder the PAC 12.

East:Houston, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah
North:Washington, Washington State, oregon, Oregon State
Southwest:California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Central:Boise State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State

That really hard to get unless they go to more than 16 to get things even out better. PAC 20 might be a little better.

Northwest:Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Boise State
Southwest:California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Hawaii
Desert:San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, UNLV, Utah
East:Houston, TCU, Colorado, New Mexico, Colorado State

That would give PAC 12 more states and coverage that they are not getting right now.

(07-21-2017 05:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  What if Texas goes Independent like Notre Dame? They want eastern exposure, so they would be looking to be like Notre Dame for playing 5 games against them. That means the PAC 16 lineup could be different since Texas Tech may not be all that interesting to the western schools. They may look at adding Boise State and San Diego State instead. They have said they will keep an alert eye on those two if they improved their academics even more which they were impressed when they added Colorado and Utah. This would give the state of Idaho off the table for any anti-trust lawsuit against the P5 or P4.

Now, we have to reorder the PAC 12.

East:Houston, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah
North:Washington, Washington State, oregon, Oregon State
Southwest:California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Central:Boise State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State

That really hard to get unless they go to more than 16 to get things even out better. PAC 20 might be a little better.

Northwest:Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Boise State
Southwest:California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Hawaii
Desert:San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, UNLV, Utah
East:Houston, TCU, Colorado, New Mexico, Colorado State

That would give PAC 12 more states and coverage that they are not getting right now.

I don't think the Pac wouldn't add any of the current MWC schools unless it absolutely had to.

(07-22-2017 12:13 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-21-2017 05:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  What if Texas goes Independent like Notre Dame? They want eastern exposure, so they would be looking to be like Notre Dame for playing 5 games against them. That means the PAC 16 lineup could be different since Texas Tech may not be all that interesting to the western schools. They may look at adding Boise State and San Diego State instead. They have said they will keep an alert eye on those two if they improved their academics even more which they were impressed when they added Colorado and Utah. This would give the state of Idaho off the table for any anti-trust lawsuit against the P5 or P4.

Now, we have to reorder the PAC 12.

East:Houston, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah
North:Washington, Washington State, oregon, Oregon State
Southwest:California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Central:Boise State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State

That really hard to get unless they go to more than 16 to get things even out better. PAC 20 might be a little better.

Northwest:Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Boise State
Southwest:California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Hawaii
Desert:San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, UNLV, Utah
East:Houston, TCU, Colorado, New Mexico, Colorado State

That would give PAC 12 more states and coverage that they are not getting right now.

I don't think the Pac wouldn't add any of the current MWC schools unless it absolutely had to.

They did with Utah. A few years ago before the updates, TCU was an R3 like type school where Boise State is at right now. Before now and then, some of these schools could rise or fall depending on their research departments.

4 X 16 is just not possible.

4 X 12/15/18/18 or 4 x 15/15/15/18 is more workable.

At 12, 15, and 18 the conferences can establish 3 divisions. You play 4, 5, or 6 in your divison and you create the division to hearken back to smaller conferneces and more compact geogrpahy.

Your confernece decides how many games you play outside the divisonal round robin. You get three divison winners and you allow for the selection of a wild card.

That creates a 16 school playoff - 12 who got there by winiing their division and 4 as the best school in the conference not to win their divions.

I think this is the way to go to end up with just 4 conferences.

This allows the P12 not to expand. This allows the ACC, SEC, and B10 to expand to 15 or 18 depending on the mix that suites them. That opens 8 spots for the B12 schools, plus any AAC school that better meets the ACC, SEC, or B10 needs.

Texas, OU, Kansas, TT, TCU, and probably West Va are okay if collusion is used to parcel out said schools. I can see a few scenarios where Navy, Tulane, Houston, and Cincy are prefered over ISU, KSU, and OSU. Baylor is DOA and probably Kansas State.

I think this is easier to work than 4 pods, because the 4 pods, guarantee only 3 games, and a number of schools need 4 or 5 such games to feel "whole".

(07-22-2017 12:21 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  They did with Utah. A few years ago before the updates, TCU was an R3 like type school where Boise State is at right now. Before now and then, some of these schools could rise or fall depending on their research departments.

The MWC today is not the same as the one that had BYU, TCU, and Utah. None of the current MWC schools will end up in the Pac anytime soon.

(07-22-2017 02:58 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  4 X 16 is just not possible.

4 X 12/15/18/18 or 4 x 15/15/15/18 is more workable.

At 12, 15, and 18 the conferences can establish 3 divisions. You play 4, 5, or 6 in your divison and you create the division to hearken back to smaller conferneces and more compact geogrpahy.

Your confernece decides how many games you play outside the divisonal round robin. You get three divison winners and you allow for the selection of a wild card.

That creates a 16 school playoff - 12 who got there by winiing their division and 4 as the best school in the conference not to win their divions.

I think this is the way to go to end up with just 4 conferences.

This allows the P12 not to expand. This allows the ACC, SEC, and B10 to expand to 15 or 18 depending on the mix that suites them. That opens 8 spots for the B12 schools, plus any AAC school that better meets the ACC, SEC, or B10 needs.

Texas, OU, Kansas, TT, TCU, and probably West Va are okay if collusion is used to parcel out said schools. I can see a few scenarios where Navy, Tulane, Houston, and Cincy are prefered over ISU, KSU, and OSU. Baylor is DOA and probably Kansas State.

I think this is easier to work than 4 pods, because the 4 pods, guarantee only 3 games, and a number of schools need 4 or 5 such games to feel "whole".

Oh, a 4x16 is certainly possible. Going to an unprecedented (in the modern CFB era) 18 seems like a bit much, at least for this upcoming round of realignment. Conferences, being inherently conservative, are more likely to go from 12/14 to 16 than to jump straight to 18, especially since more mouths to feed may mean a reduced payout per school. I think it's naive to assume that the other power conferences will work together to save every Big 12 school. Each conference is in it for itself alone. They'll each take what they want/can from the Big 12, and the remnants will fall down to the G# just like the Big East/American did. It's likely that the surviving Big 12 members will replenish their numbers by drawing from the American, perhaps effectively merging the two conferences.

Baylor, ISU, and KSU are almost certainly screwed. They will go down with the Big 12 ship. The other 5 non-UT/OU schools have at least some reasonable chance of "rescue" by a power conference. And a few current non-power schools (UConn, Cincy, Houston) may have their opportunity to shine, as did Utah, TCU, and Louisville before them. Navy and Tulane are not players in the next round of realignment in terms of who will join a power conference.

Also, if a school wants an annual matchup outside its pod, there are always protected crossovers.

(07-22-2017 03:41 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-22-2017 12:21 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  They did with Utah. A few years ago before the updates, TCU was an R3 like type school where Boise State is at right now. Before now and then, some of these schools could rise or fall depending on their research departments.

The MWC today is not the same as the one that had BYU, TCU, and Utah. None of the current MWC schools will end up in the Pac anytime soon.

(07-22-2017 02:58 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  4 X 16 is just not possible.

4 X 12/15/18/18 or 4 x 15/15/15/18 is more workable.

At 12, 15, and 18 the conferences can establish 3 divisions. You play 4, 5, or 6 in your divison and you create the division to hearken back to smaller conferneces and more compact geogrpahy.

Your confernece decides how many games you play outside the divisonal round robin. You get three divison winners and you allow for the selection of a wild card.

That creates a 16 school playoff - 12 who got there by winiing their division and 4 as the best school in the conference not to win their divions.

I think this is the way to go to end up with just 4 conferences.

This allows the P12 not to expand. This allows the ACC, SEC, and B10 to expand to 15 or 18 depending on the mix that suites them. That opens 8 spots for the B12 schools, plus any AAC school that better meets the ACC, SEC, or B10 needs.

Texas, OU, Kansas, TT, TCU, and probably West Va are okay if collusion is used to parcel out said schools. I can see a few scenarios where Navy, Tulane, Houston, and Cincy are prefered over ISU, KSU, and OSU. Baylor is DOA and probably Kansas State.

I think this is easier to work than 4 pods, because the 4 pods, guarantee only 3 games, and a number of schools need 4 or 5 such games to feel "whole".

Oh, a 4x16 is certainly possible. Going to an unprecedented (in the modern CFB era) 18 seems like a bit much, at least for this upcoming round of realignment. Conferences, being inherently conservative, are more likely to go from 12/14 to 16 than to jump straight to 18, especially since more mouths to feed may mean a reduced payout per school. I think it's naive to assume that the other power conferences will work together to save every Big 12 school. Each conference is in it for itself alone. They'll each take what they want/can from the Big 12, and the remnants will fall down to the G# just like the Big East/American did. It's likely that the surviving Big 12 members will replenish their numbers by drawing from the American, perhaps effectively merging the two conferences.

Baylor, ISU, and KSU are almost certainly screwed. They will go down with the Big 12 ship. The other 5 non-UT/OU schools have at least some reasonable chance of "rescue" by a power conference. And a few current non-power schools (UConn, Cincy, Houston) may have their opportunity to shine, as did Utah, TCU, and Louisville before them. Navy and Tulane are not players in the next round of realignment in terms of who will join a power conference.

Also, if a school wants an annual matchup outside its pod, there are always protected crossovers.

No, there are not enough of those for some schools.

UNC has to protect Duke, NC State and UVa. They would also like to protect GT and get WF if they can.

GT has to protect Clemson and wants to protect Duke, and NC as well as have an annual game with Miami or FSU.

Tennessee has to protect Alabama, Vandy, and would want to protect Kentucky and Florida.

The pod system gives you only three permanent games. Everything else is perpetual motion, but is fair only if the original POD is fair.

If you are the ACC schools are you really going to allow the following POD - UNC, NC State, Duke, and WF and have Miami, FSU, GT, and CU in another?

If Texas is not willing to go to the Pacific, there is not going to be a Pac 16. I never said the SEC, B10, or ACC HAD to go to 18, just that the numbers of 12, 15, and 18 all allow three divisions and creates more "winners".

Most Plausible 4X16. The Big One hits and California falls into the Pacific.

Notre Dame and WVU join the ACC
UConn and Missouri join the Big 10
Cincinnati, USF and Houston join the SEC
Big 12 invites rest of Pac except Washington St.

Other than that its pretty hard to see the conferences working together to create a 4X16.

Speaking of Texas, one of the reasons I don't seem them in a Pac 16 is not enough partners in the Central Time Zone - here's how a PAC 18 addressed that:

PAC Plains - Texas, TT, TCU, OU, OSU, Kansas
PAC Pacific - USC, Arizona, Utah, Cal, Washington, Oregon
PAC Cascades - UCLA, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Oregon State

Give each school two permaent rivals in the other divison:

Texas, Stanford, Cal
OU, Southern Cal, UCLA
TCU, WSU, Washington
Kansas, Utah, Colorado
Ok State, Oregon State, Oregon
TT, Arizona, Arizona State

So Texas for example always has Oklahoma, TCU, Kansas, Ok State, and Texas Tech, plus Stanford and Cal. That's five central time zone games and the other four are split home and home - essentially just three trips to the West Coast a season. Cal and Southern Cal, and Stanford and UCLA would need to schedule outside the conference regime to meet more once every five years - a big downside but you can't get votes from WSU, Washington, Oregon, and OSU without them having at least two games with California teams.

Most every year Oklahoma, Texas, or perhaps TCU will host a playoff game. USC, Oregon, Washington, Stanford on the other side.

They could play the championship game not at the stadium of the highest seed, but in the new NFL stadium in Vegas, where it's easy to fly in on a moments notice.

Is this likely to happen - no.

But I really thing divisions of three are more workable than four pods and will give more satisfaction be that at 12, 15, or 18 schools.

(07-22-2017 06:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  Most Plausible 4X16. The Big One hits and California falls into the Pacific.

Notre Dame and WVU join the ACC
UConn and Missouri join the Big 10
Cincinnati, USF and Houston join the SEC
Big 12 invites rest of Pac except Washington St.

Other than that its pretty hard to see the conferences working together to create a 4X16.

If California falls into the ocean the B10 invites Colorado over UConn and they take that over the B12.

(07-22-2017 06:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  Most Plausible 4X16. The Big One hits and California falls into the Pacific.

Notre Dame and WVU join the ACC
UConn and Missouri join the Big 10
Cincinnati, USF and Houston join the SEC
Big 12 invites rest of Pac except Washington St.

Other than that its pretty hard to see the conferences working together to create a 4X16.

They needn't work together to reach 16. The ACC, Big Ten, and SEC all reached 14 around the same time, but they definitely didn't work together to get there. 16 is just the next logical step after 14 (as 14 was after 12). The Pac is likely to skip over 14 to 16 due to its unique geography.

(07-22-2017 06:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  Most Plausible 4X16. The Big One hits and California falls into the Pacific.

Notre Dame and WVU join the ACC
UConn and Missouri join the Big 10
Cincinnati, USF and Houston join the SEC
Big 12 invites rest of Pac except Washington St.

Other than that its pretty hard to see the conferences working together to create a 4X16.

If the Big One does strike, it'll impact the whole West Coast more than it does California alone.

(07-22-2017 06:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(07-22-2017 03:41 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-22-2017 12:21 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  They did with Utah. A few years ago before the updates, TCU was an R3 like type school where Boise State is at right now. Before now and then, some of these schools could rise or fall depending on their research departments.

The MWC today is not the same as the one that had BYU, TCU, and Utah. None of the current MWC schools will end up in the Pac anytime soon.

(07-22-2017 02:58 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  4 X 16 is just not possible.

4 X 12/15/18/18 or 4 x 15/15/15/18 is more workable.

At 12, 15, and 18 the conferences can establish 3 divisions. You play 4, 5, or 6 in your divison and you create the division to hearken back to smaller conferneces and more compact geogrpahy.

Your confernece decides how many games you play outside the divisonal round robin. You get three divison winners and you allow for the selection of a wild card.

That creates a 16 school playoff - 12 who got there by winiing their division and 4 as the best school in the conference not to win their divions.

I think this is the way to go to end up with just 4 conferences.

This allows the P12 not to expand. This allows the ACC, SEC, and B10 to expand to 15 or 18 depending on the mix that suites them. That opens 8 spots for the B12 schools, plus any AAC school that better meets the ACC, SEC, or B10 needs.

Texas, OU, Kansas, TT, TCU, and probably West Va are okay if collusion is used to parcel out said schools. I can see a few scenarios where Navy, Tulane, Houston, and Cincy are prefered over ISU, KSU, and OSU. Baylor is DOA and probably Kansas State.

I think this is easier to work than 4 pods, because the 4 pods, guarantee only 3 games, and a number of schools need 4 or 5 such games to feel "whole".

Oh, a 4x16 is certainly possible. Going to an unprecedented (in the modern CFB era) 18 seems like a bit much, at least for this upcoming round of realignment. Conferences, being inherently conservative, are more likely to go from 12/14 to 16 than to jump straight to 18, especially since more mouths to feed may mean a reduced payout per school. I think it's naive to assume that the other power conferences will work together to save every Big 12 school. Each conference is in it for itself alone. They'll each take what they want/can from the Big 12, and the remnants will fall down to the G# just like the Big East/American did. It's likely that the surviving Big 12 members will replenish their numbers by drawing from the American, perhaps effectively merging the two conferences.

Baylor, ISU, and KSU are almost certainly screwed. They will go down with the Big 12 ship. The other 5 non-UT/OU schools have at least some reasonable chance of "rescue" by a power conference. And a few current non-power schools (UConn, Cincy, Houston) may have their opportunity to shine, as did Utah, TCU, and Louisville before them. Navy and Tulane are not players in the next round of realignment in terms of who will join a power conference.

Also, if a school wants an annual matchup outside its pod, there are always protected crossovers.

No, there are not enough of those for some schools.

UNC has to protect Duke, NC State and UVa. They would also like to protect GT and get WF if they can.

GT has to protect Clemson and wants to protect Duke, and NC as well as have an annual game with Miami or FSU.

Tennessee has to protect Alabama, Vandy, and would want to protect Kentucky and Florida.

The pod system gives you only three permanent games. Everything else is perpetual motion, but is fair only if the original POD is fair.

If you are the ACC schools are you really going to allow the following POD - UNC, NC State, Duke, and WF and have Miami, FSU, GT, and CU in another?

Using the 4 division/pod system you could technically protect 6 games a year by designating a permanent cross over in each pod. Using the ACC divisions that were posted above as an example

Quote:ACC
East: Florida State, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

North Carolina would play the bolded teams every year then they would play the rest of each pod once every 3 years

Year 1: 6 protected games + FSU, Miami, VTech
Year 2: 6 protected games + BC, ND & Syracuse
Year 3: 6 protected games + Cincinnati, Clemson & Louisville

(07-22-2017 06:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  No, there are not enough of those for some schools.

UNC has to protect Duke, NC State and UVa. They would also like to protect GT and get WF if they can.

GT has to protect Clemson and wants to protect Duke, and NC as well as have an annual game with Miami or FSU.

Tennessee has to protect Alabama, Vandy, and would want to protect Kentucky and Florida.

The pod system gives you only three permanent games. Everything else is perpetual motion, but is fair only if the original POD is fair.

If you are the ACC schools are you really going to allow the following POD - UNC, NC State, Duke, and WF and have Miami, FSU, GT, and CU in another?

If Texas is not willing to go to the Pacific, there is not going to be a Pac 16. I never said the SEC, B10, or ACC HAD to go to 18, just that the numbers of 12, 15, and 18 all allow three divisions and creates more "winners".

The advantage of having fewer protected annual in-conference matchups (i.e., the few that matter the most) is that a team can still play the less important matchups every other year.

Two of the ACC pods I proposed are relatively weak:

North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse (ND is of course a strong team but the pod average is dragged down by the others)
South: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest

... while the other two are relatively strong:

East: Florida State, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

Since the weak North and weak South pods never share a division, nor do the strong East and strong West pods, then you get a balance of sorts despite the alternation of the pods between divisions. Each division always has both a weak and a strong pod.

Year One: North+East / South+West
Year Two: North+West / South+East
(and repeat)

So all the NC schools can play every year and it doesn't so much matter that their pod is so weak. You'll note I did split up Clemson+GT and FSU+Miami. Altogether they make for a nice pod geographically-speaking, but they had to be separated for competitive balance.

I provided for at least one protected crossover (UNC/UVa). UNC will be playing one of the Florida teams every 2 years out of 3.

You could have a protected crossover for Duke/Georgia Tech if it's crucial. Otherwise, they're playing every other year as it is.

As for the SEC, Tennessee shares a pod with Alabama and Vandy and so will play them annually. I also added a protected crossover with Kentucky. Florida and Tennessee will be playing every other year as it is.

I agree that a Pac greater than 12 would only really happen if UT joins. That's why I had them join the Pac.

Regardless of whether the conference has 2, 3, 4, or no divisions, you can still have 4 teams qualify for the conference playoffs. There's no particular need to create divisions simply so an extra team can get a trophy.

(07-22-2017 08:51 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  Using the 4 division/pod system you could technically protect 6 games a year by designating a permanent cross over in each pod. Using the ACC divisions that were posted above as an example

Quote:ACC
East: Florida State, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

North Carolina would play the bolded teams every year then they would play the rest of each pod once every 3 years

Year 1: 6 protected games + FSU, Miami, VTech
Year 2: 6 protected games + BC, ND & Syracuse
Year 3: 6 protected games + Cincinnati, Clemson & Louisville

This is true, but for most schools having this many protected matchups is unnecessary. Think of the so-called "rivalry" between Boston College and Virginia Tech, or that between Kentucky and Mississippi State over in the SEC. Keeping the schedule fluid allows for more diversity in opponents and a quicker rotation through the entire conference.

(06-13-2017 10:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Hi all! I'm new to the board. I'd love to see a 4x16 power conference realignment, even if simply for the symmetry and balance of it. Unfortunately, plausible routes that lead there are not so easy to envision. Below is what I think to be the most plausible route (at the moment). Feel free to critique my scenario and to post your own!

With the expiration of the Big 12's grant of media rights looming in 2025, the collapse of the conference seems imminent. Those members that have escape routes begin feeling them out, while the other conferences circle like sharks around a sinking ship.

The Pac-12 strikes first, securing the Longhorns and sealing the fate of the Big 12. Part of the deal is that three other schools in UT's backyard tag along. The Sooners balk at the offer and instead opt for the SEC. A relieved Oklahoma State also receives an invitation from the SEC (at the urging of OU and the Oklahoma state legislature). Fortunately, there isn't enough bad blood between UT and OU over the split to prevent an annual out-of-conference Red River Showdown.

The move by OU limits the Longhorns' options for travel partners. Texas Tech is deemed acceptable by the Pac, as it was when the first offer to UT was made back in 2010. The Pac sneers at TCU for being a religious school, but their academics are nothing to scoff at, so the Horned Frogs also receive an invite. In a situation similar to the formation of the Big 12 in 1996, Baylor angles for the fourth Texas slot. However, the scandal-ridden Bears are turned down, as the Pac invites Houston instead and in this manner becomes the Pac-16.

The Big Ten cannot pass up the chance to add to its basketball chops and pick up another state, admitting Kansas as its 15th member. While the Big Ten sat at an odd number of schools for two decades before the acquisition of Nebraska, it's not an ideal situation from a scheduling standpoint, so a 16th member is sought. Iowa State meets the basic qualifications but offers nothing new. The Big Ten would love to add Notre Dame, though the Irish are yoked to the ACC until the expiration of that conference's GOR in 2036.

The 16th member of the Big Ten ends up being a school which had recently begged to get in: Missouri. A school's voluntarily leaving the SEC had seemed unthinkable for many, but the Big Ten is a better fit for the Tigers in terms of culture and academics, and the timing is right. The defection is facilitated by the SEC's lack of a financial penalty for departing schools. Indignant over the coup, the SEC taps an ecstatic West Virginia as a replacement.

By this time, it has become evident that 16-school conferences are what's in. The ACC, as the weakest remaining power conference, must go with the flow or risking falling too far behind. Notre Dame also sees the writing on the wall and finally relinquishes its football independence for a spot in the ACC and a decent chance at a CFP championship. The ACC considers adding Cincinnati over Connecticut to better bolster its football reputation, but ultimately selects UConn for its stellar hoops.

Sadly, Iowa State and Kansas State fall down the AAC or MWC along with Baylor.

Thus we arrive at a 4x16 power conference alignment. (Here's a map!) Each conference consists of four 4-team "pods," which alternate between two 8-team divisions every two years. For two years it's the "Northeast" and "Southwest" Divisions, and for the next two it's the "Northwest" and "Southeast" Divisions.

ACC
East: Boston College, Connecticut, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
West: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Protected crossovers: Boston College/Notre Dame, North Carolina/Virginia

Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
South: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
West: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Protected crossovers: Illinois/Northwestern, Michigan/Ohio State

Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Protected crossovers: none

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Protected crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia

Annual interconference matchups
Clemson/South Carolina
Florida/Florida State
Georgia/Georgia Tech
Kentucky/Louisville
Notre Dame/USC
Oklahoma/Texas

The conference schedule is 9 games across the board. For two years, each team plays a home-and-home against the 3 teams in its pod, the 4 other teams in its division, and 2 teams from the "opposite" pod (i.e., North vs. South, East vs. West). For the next two years, each team plays a home-and-home against the 3 teams in its pod again, the 4 other teams in its division (this time it's a different pod of 4), and the other 2 teams from the opposite pod. This way, with the exception of protected crossovers, each team plays every other team in its conference twice in 4 years.

Conference championships proceed between the two divisions as they do currently. The CFP becomes a de facto (if not de jure) competition between the champions of the four remaining power conferences.

So what do you all think? Poke (constructive) holes in this scenario if you see any, and submit your own scenarios! :)

It's not perfect...but short of starting from square one and realigning things from scratch, nothing will be perfect. I think it's a very high scenario on plausibility and desirability.

I'd rather see OU and OkSt go with Texas and Tech to the Pac-12.
I still wouldn't mind seeing your Mizzou/Kansas addition to the Big Ten. It may not add much flash to the Big Ten, but it adds consistency of product regionally that is a nice feature.
The SEC might be a bit hardpressed then to find a suitable team #14-16...outside of West Virginia. Houston? TCU? Baylor? Kansas State? Maybe a USF or UCF?

Oh...and I also think the conference semifinal/automatic playoff bid for conference champ idea would be probable.

I think this might work even if it's not a perfect 4x16 breakdown. If the Pac-12 is happy to allow the SEC/Big Ten/ACC at 16 teams each to allow a semifinal and a championship game AS LONG AS their champ gets an auto-bid too, then that would work splendidly for them. The SEC/Big Ten/ACC path is a bit harder, for sure, but CFB is so wonky as it is, why not?

A thought I had: If at least one power conference were to reach 16 schools, perhaps they might lobby the NCAA to permit a 2-round, 4-team championship for any conference that reaches 16 schools. What are the odds of this succeeding? And if it did succeed, could this trigger expansion by those power conferences with fewer than 16, even if they would otherwise not have expanded?

I suspect this may not be plausible. For the lobbying to succeed, the request may have to be for a 2-round championship regardless of conference size, or perhaps with 12 or 14 as a minimum instead. This would get the backing of those conferences not seeking to expand. And in any case, there might be hesitation by the NCAA to permit such a change due to the potential for realignment-related instability.

(02-08-2018 02:21 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  A thought I had: If at least one power conference were to reach 16 schools, perhaps they might lobby the NCAA to permit a 2-round, 4-team championship for any conference that reaches 16 schools. What are the odds of this succeeding? And if it did succeed, could this trigger expansion by those power conferences with fewer than 16, even if they would otherwise not have expanded?

I suspect this may not be plausible. For the lobbying to succeed, the request may have to be for a 2-round championship regardless of conference size, or perhaps with 12 or 14 as a minimum instead. This would get the backing of those conferences not seeking to expand. And in any case, there might be hesitation by the NCAA to permit such a change due to the potential for realignment-related instability.

That would mean the teams in the national title game would have played 16 games that season (12 regular season, two conference playoffs, two CFP). That might be a bridge too far for approval. Plus there's really no need for a second layer of conference postseason with just 16 teams, since scheduling with eight-team divisions is still easy enough (seven in-division games, one or two interdivision games).

Now if conferences got big enough to go to three or four divisions, the two-round proposal would have more support, I'd think (four division champs or three champs and a wild card). But it would probably require most if not all conferences to swell to that point.