(05-20-2019 08:31 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  I always giggle a little when I read or see people just looking at how many returning starters exist to make a determination whether a team is going to be good or bad in the upcoming season.

Take Duke FB pre-Cutcliffe, for example. They went on a 20-year run of awful"ness" that even Kansas fans laughed at (though, their head coach Mark Mangino had a terrible habit of eating small human beings, but I digress). Duke won 9 conference FB games over a 13 year period.

Yet, during that 13-to-20 year run, they had seasons where they returned a lot of starters. Cut to the chase...if your talent level sucks, your coaching sucks and most of all your culture sucks, then you are very likely going to suck. The flip of that is NDSU, JMU, and others...your talent level is solid, your coaching is solid and most of all your culture is solid, then you are very likely going to be very good - regardless of how many starters you do or do not return. Backups prepare to be champions just like starters do when the culture is right.

I think you need to look at a # of things:
-How many senior starters lost.
-How many non senior starters returning. (to include injured from 2 seasons prior who missed the majority or all of the prior season- for JMU Robinson being an example). You also have offseason losses/suspensions to take into account for a myriad of reasons (health, injury, academic, legal, personal) etc. For ex Maine's 1k+ yards rushing FR RB who was arrested on the domestic violence charge, and the UNH players arrested on felony riot charges, among their multi year starting, All CAA LB.
-All conference lost/returning.
-All American lost/returning. The high impact players.
-Return the starting QB or not?
-Somewhat proven transfers
-Coaching changes. CAA alone JMU, Maine, Elon, W&M. Maine's new HC was/is only 30, but Harasymiak was 29 when he was hired.

As I recall from NDSU's semifinal game notes, they had:
-15 of 22 starters listed as seniors (maybe majority All conference, a # of All Americans). Contrast that to the prior season when they had only 6 or 7 senior starters.
-Junior All conference FB was suspended for the NC game & his senior season due to testing postive for a banned substance.
-Includes losing 3 year, All Conference/AA, 5th rd draft pick QB. They've only had 3 QB starters on their 8 year run. 2 of those were 1st and 5th round draft picks. Now their new QB starter is likely to be a transfer, which as we all know, is a complete wild card.
-At least 6 seniors under NFL contract now (1 drafted & 5 UDFA), a virtually unheard of amount for I-AA. Compare that to one of JMU's greatest senior classes from 2 seasons ago, when had 3 UDFA for the 2018 training camp (Greene, Stinnie, Robinson, with a 4th and 5th, Ankrah & Hyman, getting shots this year).
-Lost HC &half their staff.

JMU slipped last year because in part were so young & inexperienced, often only starting 2 seniors. NDSU will slip at least a little- they aren't going to be as experienced or as good as last year. The question is how much. Of course they will be in the playoffs, and highly likely still a seed, as they're probably the only team that could drop 3 I-AA games and still be a seed.

(05-20-2019 08:10 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(05-20-2019 08:03 AM)Purple Wrote:  

(05-20-2019 06:42 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(05-19-2019 07:38 PM)Purple Wrote:  

(05-16-2019 06:37 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Thats tough to say considering NDSU has yet to prove they are not the kings of the FCS and we havent won anything in two years. I believe in this team as much as the next fan but until we see results on the field I dont think you can make that judgement

Sure I can. You are going on NDSU's history, which will mean doodly squat when they take the field this year. Their winning tradition is great for their fans, but means nothing in 2019.

I am basing my claim (as is the author) on how much the Bison lost last year. They have many big holes to fill and even many of their own hardcore fans predict them losing as many as three or four games this season.

Seriously? Their tradition is winning national championships every year, that does mean something for the mentality and work ethic of the players. How do you or their fans know the players that will be starters this year wont be better than last year? How do you know we will improve on last year or will be on the Bison's level? We did lose four games last year remember? And other than last year NDSU usually drops a game or two along the way to the title
All we can say is that we have more returning players than they do. That's it. They've won 7 of the last 8 so until they drop 3-4 games they are still the top team

Nobody "knows." It's one fan's prediction, based on available data, just for fun.

From what I can see, NDSU lost a ton of talent last year. I'm not predicting the Bison will be winless, or a basement dweller, or even under .500. I'm simply "predicting" that they will not be the dominant team of past. They will likely make the playoffs, in my opinion, but without home games in the Fargloo, they don't have a "history" of doing well. Thus, I don't see them in Frisco next year.

Just one fan's prediction. Time will tell how close I come.

Yep - the same predication that has likely been made incorrrectly 1,000s of times the last 7 years. I believe they are working on 7 of 8 years. And to think JMU was the foundation for their first national championship.

I don't know where you saw thousands of "predications" over the past 7 or 8 years that the Bison were not going to be in Frisco, but if you don't see a difference between the NDSU of the past 7 or 8 years and the Bison of 2019, then you aren't paying attention.

(05-20-2019 11:43 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(05-20-2019 08:31 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  I always giggle a little when I read or see people just looking at how many returning starters exist to make a determination whether a team is going to be good or bad in the upcoming season.

Take Duke FB pre-Cutcliffe, for example. They went on a 20-year run of awful"ness" that even Kansas fans laughed at (though, their head coach Mark Mangino had a terrible habit of eating small human beings, but I digress). Duke won 9 conference FB games over a 13 year period.

Yet, during that 13-to-20 year run, they had seasons where they returned a lot of starters. Cut to the chase...if your talent level sucks, your coaching sucks and most of all your culture sucks, then you are very likely going to suck. The flip of that is NDSU, JMU, and others...your talent level is solid, your coaching is solid and most of all your culture is solid, then you are very likely going to be very good - regardless of how many starters you do or do not return. Backups prepare to be champions just like starters do when the culture is right.

I think you need to look at a # of things:
-How many senior starters lost.
-How many non senior starters returning. (to include injured from 2 seasons prior who missed the majority or all of the prior season- for JMU Robinson being an example). You also have offseason losses/suspensions to take into account for a myriad of reasons (health, injury, academic, legal, personal) etc. For ex Maine's 1k+ yards rushing FR RB who was arrested on the domestic violence charge, and the UNH players arrested on felony riot charges, among their multi year starting, All CAA LB.
-All conference lost/returning.
-All American lost/returning. The high impact players.
-Return the starting QB or not?
-Somewhat proven transfers
-Coaching changes. CAA alone JMU, Maine, Elon, W&M. Maine's new HC was/is only 30, but Harasymiak was 29 when he was hired.

As I recall from NDSU's semifinal game notes, they had:
-15 of 22 starters listed as seniors (maybe majority All conference, a # of All Americans). Contrast that to the prior season when they had only 6 or 7 senior starters.
-Junior All conference FB was suspended for the NC game & his senior season due to testing postive for a banned substance.
-Includes losing 3 year, All Conference/AA, 5th rd draft pick QB. They've only had 3 QB starters on their 8 year run. 2 of those were 1st and 5th round draft picks. Now their new QB starter is likely to be a transfer, which as we all know, is a complete wild card.
-At least 6 seniors under NFL contract now (1 drafted & 5 UDFA), a virtually unheard of amount for I-AA. Compare that to one of JMU's greatest senior classes from 2 seasons ago, when had 3 UDFA for the 2018 training camp (Greene, Stinnie, Robinson, with a 4th and 5th, Ankrah & Hyman, getting shots this year).
-Lost HC &half their staff.

JMU slipped last year because in part were so young & inexperienced, often only starting 2 seniors. NDSU will slip at least a little- they aren't going to be as experienced or as good as last year. The question is how much. Of course they will be in the playoffs, and highly likely still a seed, as they're probably the only team that could drop 3 I-AA games and still be a seed.

Exactly! I couldn't have said it better. The Bison could actually lose three games and still get a seed, but if they win out in the playoffs and wind up in Frisco, it will be luck, not due to dominating the subdivision as in years past. My opinion.