(12-07-2017 10:04 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 09:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 07:06 PM)SubGod22 Wrote:  I seem to remember Aresco saying they would start talking in January. I know it was brought up when he was on one of our local shows after we were officially added tot he conference.

Fall of 2016, after the Big 12 expansion scare, Aresco said he would be talking with ESPN in December (now a year ago), and we've never heard anything of it.

We'll see what happens.

When Aresco asked about renegotiating Espn probably told him



Thus the lack of news.

Hopefully he doesn't become Morrie Kessler (who kept asking Tommy for his money)

(12-07-2017 04:12 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

All of the so called p5 programs have gotten decades of tv exposure so yes they shoved down their games down our throats a million times already of course you should expect those type rating numbers.

AAC is only getting started and if exposure equals that from the so called p5 I'm confident we'll see similar type numbers but much sooner, tv ratings I mean.

Our games also includes zero publicity and promotion from ESPN. I'm sure that if someone else like NBC were interested they'll already have figured this into the equation through their own analytics

(12-07-2017 04:19 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 10:04 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 09:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 07:06 PM)SubGod22 Wrote:  I seem to remember Aresco saying they would start talking in January. I know it was brought up when he was on one of our local shows after we were officially added tot he conference.

Fall of 2016, after the Big 12 expansion scare, Aresco said he would be talking with ESPN in December (now a year ago), and we've never heard anything of it.

We'll see what happens.

When Aresco asked about renegotiating Espn probably told him



Thus the lack of news.

Hopefully he doesn't become Morrie Kessler (who kept asking Tommy for his money)

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

Basically, the value of the AAC TV deal is concentrated in its top 10-20 games (which is honestly true of all conferences). My feeling is the AAC is a tremendous bargain and offers superior "bang for the buck" at anything below 10 million per team.

(12-07-2017 06:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

Basically, the value of the AAC TV deal is concentrated in its top 10-20 games (which is honestly true of all conferences). My feeling is the AAC is a tremendous bargain and offers superior "bang for the buck" at anything below 10 million per team.

I agree that the AAC provides ESPN a tremendous bargain. However, the top 6-8 games are the only ones that provide value. Games 9-20 don't really carry enough to value to merit anywhere close to $10M per team. You could argue the top 8 games merit about $3M per game, on average. The next 12 games would be lucky to be valued at $1M per game. Throw in the CCG, and you're still under $50M - or about $4M per team.

That's still a nice raise, but no way to justify $10M per team - $120M per year.

(12-07-2017 06:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

Basically, the value of the AAC TV deal is concentrated in its top 10-20 games (which is honestly true of all conferences). My feeling is the AAC is a tremendous bargain and offers superior "bang for the buck" at anything below 10 million per team.

The AAC has a pretty good core well known programs... I really like to see NBC step up to the plate and take this AAC property from under ESPN noses.

Even at $8million - $12million NBC will still come out well ahead... Or like you say, a tremendous bargain.

AC, I really hope NBC offers you all a contract. I think even if it were for a little less than ESPN, NBC will promote the AAC as P6. I just don't see ESPN ever doing that. So in saying that, I see 4-5 million per team. I hope the AAC and Aresco look long term and not short term. Possibly less money now on non-ESPN network could lead to P6 long term. Here is to hoping Santa brings an NBC contract to you all for Christmas.

I had a friend of mine who is in the national sports media, tell me today, that Aresco has been meeting with Amazon, Facebook, and Google and wants them to bid. He thinks they main goal of this is to simply encourage to ESPN to up their bid, from the value of the current contract. He doesn't know the level of interest of those companies though.

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

I saw another analysis where the AAC's viewership were compared directly with P5 viewership over the course of a full season and factored in the network and timeslot. I can't find it and don't remember all the exact details, but the conclusion was that in the worst case comparison (same network and timeslot) the AAC viewership were 30% - 40% of the P5 and the best case comparison the AAC ratings were 60% - 70% of the P5.

So, looking at what the P5 conferences are receiving from TV, the AAC's actual value based on viewership should be in the $10M - $13M range. ESPN will surely find a reason to screw us over...but that's what we SHOULD be paid based on viewership comparisons.

(12-07-2017 07:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 06:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

Basically, the value of the AAC TV deal is concentrated in its top 10-20 games (which is honestly true of all conferences). My feeling is the AAC is a tremendous bargain and offers superior "bang for the buck" at anything below 10 million per team.

I agree that the AAC provides ESPN a tremendous bargain. However, the top 6-8 games are the only ones that provide value. Games 9-20 don't really carry enough to value to merit anywhere close to $10M per team. You could argue the top 8 games merit about $3M per game, on average. The next 12 games would be lucky to be valued at $1M per game. Throw in the CCG, and you're still under $50M - or about $4M per team.

That's still a nice raise, but no way to justify $10M per team - $120M per year.

That depends on the year. In 2015 the AAC has 16 games over 1 million viewers. Look at this way—the top 20 AAC games all are comparable to some P5 pairings (likely lower end pairings) on similar networks. But let’s remember—the last open bidding for P5 games cost the winners 400 million (or close to 30 million a team) for a package that doesn’t include all the inventory still held back for the B10 Network.
All I’m saying is if you can get half the ratings at one third the price (or less), that’s a bargain. Once you pass 10 million per team, your starting to pay closer to the P5 per viewer rate.

I’m simply pointing out how high you could go and still be a comparative bargain. I’m not suggesting the AAC will walk away from the negotiating table with a 10 million per team deal.

(12-07-2017 10:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 07:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 06:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

Basically, the value of the AAC TV deal is concentrated in its top 10-20 games (which is honestly true of all conferences). My feeling is the AAC is a tremendous bargain and offers superior "bang for the buck" at anything below 10 million per team.

I agree that the AAC provides ESPN a tremendous bargain. However, the top 6-8 games are the only ones that provide value. Games 9-20 don't really carry enough to value to merit anywhere close to $10M per team. You could argue the top 8 games merit about $3M per game, on average. The next 12 games would be lucky to be valued at $1M per game. Throw in the CCG, and you're still under $50M - or about $4M per team.

That's still a nice raise, but no way to justify $10M per team - $120M per year.

That depends on the year. In 2015 the AAC has 16 games over 1 million viewers. Look at this way—the top 20 AAC games all are comparable to some P5 pairings (likely lower end pairings) on similar networks. But let’s remember—the last open bidding for P5 games cost the winners 400 million (or close to 30 million a team) for a package that doesn’t include all the inventory still held back for the B10 Network.
All I’m saying is if you can get half the ratings at one third the price (or less), that’s a bargain. Once you pass 10 million per team, your starting to pay closer to the P5 per viewer rate.

I’m simply pointing out how high you could go and still be a comparative bargain. I’m not suggesting the AAC will walk away from the negotiating table with a 10 million per team deal.

Our championship game alone should be valued at $5-7 million minimum. Our basketball league should be worth at least $15 million minimum. We should be at $19 million low side before we negotiate our football without championship game. I'm upping my prediction to $6 million each. Great news would be $8-10 million.

(12-07-2017 10:28 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 10:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 07:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 06:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 03:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  I've done a bit of research, using the sportsmediawatch website:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

The average 2017 ABC college football broadcast did about 4M viewers. The median is about 3.5M. The 12pm and 3:30pm ET ABC broadcast average closer to about 3.2-3.4M viewers - and the 7pm ET primetime ABC broadcasts get closer to 6M viewers. The top-10 ABC broadcasts ranged from 5M to 12M viewers.

The average 2017 ESPN college football broadcast does about 2M viewers. The median is about 1.8M. The 10pm ET late night and weeknight games do a little less, closer to 1.7M and the 7pm ET primetime ESPN broadcasts do more, about 3M viewers. The top-10 ESPN broadcasts ranged from 3.5M to 7M viewers.

For 2017 ESPN2, the average is about 650K viewers, with a little more on Saturday and closer to 500K for late 10pm ET Saturday and weeknight games. The median was about 480K. The top-10 ESPN2 broadcasts ranged from about 1M to 2.1M.

The three AAC 2017 regular season games and the AAC CCG on ABC achieved or surpassed the averages. UCF-USF (4.64M), Memphis-UCLA(3.24M), Houston-Texas-Tech(3.85M), and UCF-Memphis(3.8M).

All of the AAC 2017 games on ESPN this year did substantially worse than the average and no where close to the top. Only USF-Illinois was somewhat close to the average, with 1.37M viewers.

The AAC had some above the ESPN2 average, Memphis-Tulsa (683K), Cincinnati-Temple (697K) and Cincinnati-Navy (753K), and some below, UCF-SMU (369K), UCF-Memphis (first time, 442K), USF-Tulane (284K).


What this tells me is that the very best AAC games are worthy of P5 money, but not elite P5 money. The next tier of 6-8 games are worthy of the occasional ESPN or ESPN2 broadcast, but they're not likely to significantly exceed average time slot expectations. There are also a handful of games that are worthy of filler for ESPNU. I'm sure there will be an increase in the AAC contract, but the lack of ability to generate elite ratings will keep the AAC well below even the halfway benchmark compared to P5 payout levels.

Basically, the value of the AAC TV deal is concentrated in its top 10-20 games (which is honestly true of all conferences). My feeling is the AAC is a tremendous bargain and offers superior "bang for the buck" at anything below 10 million per team.

I agree that the AAC provides ESPN a tremendous bargain. However, the top 6-8 games are the only ones that provide value. Games 9-20 don't really carry enough to value to merit anywhere close to $10M per team. You could argue the top 8 games merit about $3M per game, on average. The next 12 games would be lucky to be valued at $1M per game. Throw in the CCG, and you're still under $50M - or about $4M per team.

That's still a nice raise, but no way to justify $10M per team - $120M per year.

That depends on the year. In 2015 the AAC has 16 games over 1 million viewers. Look at this way—the top 20 AAC games all are comparable to some P5 pairings (likely lower end pairings) on similar networks. But let’s remember—the last open bidding for P5 games cost the winners 400 million (or close to 30 million a team) for a package that doesn’t include all the inventory still held back for the B10 Network.
All I’m saying is if you can get half the ratings at one third the price (or less), that’s a bargain. Once you pass 10 million per team, your starting to pay closer to the P5 per viewer rate.

I’m simply pointing out how high you could go and still be a comparative bargain. I’m not suggesting the AAC will walk away from the negotiating table with a 10 million per team deal.

Our championship game alone should be valued at $5-7 million minimum. Our basketball league should be worth at least $15 million minimum. We should be at $19 million low side before we negotiate our football without championship game. I'm upping my prediction to $6 million each. Great news would be $8-10 million.

I would definitely bid that separately. I also would refuse to sell inventory to anyone without guaranteed windows defined in the contract. No more of of this sub-license crap. We don’t need ESPN to sell content to CBS-Sports. If CBS-Sports wants AAC content—then they will need to buy it from us. The sublicensing model effectively undermines the bidding process because CBS can get it cheaper down the road by not bidding and letting ESPN pick it up cheap—then just buy the ESPN surplus for peanuts. I would make it clear to all interested parties that bids with sub-licensing clauses will not be entertained.

(12-07-2017 09:27 PM)fanhood Wrote:  I had a friend of mine who is in the national sports media, tell me today, that Aresco has been meeting with Amazon, Facebook, and Google and wants them to bid. He thinks they main goal of this is to simply encourage to ESPN to up their bid, from the value of the current contract. He doesn't know the level of interest of those companies though.

Well, that’s been well documented. I don’t expect any of those streaming platforms to be significant players. Frankly, they would have to pay a huge premium before moving first or second tier content to that type of social media platform would make sense. That said, more bidders is always good news for sellers.

2019-20 is the last year of the contract.

Usually, that means a new contract is in place in the summer of 2019. Which means negotiations begin 6-12 months before the new contract is signed.

We have one football season and two basketball seasons left to impress.

(12-08-2017 12:48 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  2019-20 is the last year of the contract.

Usually, that means a new contract is in place in the summer of 2019. Which means negotiations begin 6-12 months before the new contract is signed.

We have one football season and two basketball seasons left to impress.

Sounds about right. Could even be earlier. The often talked about rejected offer from ESPN was presented to the Big East in April of 2011--on a deal that didnt expire until summer 2013. The Big10 deal with Fox was leaking out in April of 2016 (for a football season that wouldnt begin until late August of 2017).

https://www.si.com/college-football/2016...l-football

So that indicates the negotiating window could easily be as far out as 12 months (or longer). Plus, ESPN has apparently been willing to look at extending properties even earlier than that (28 months for the old BE and nearly 3 years in the case of the MAC).

If UCF pulls off a miracle and blows out Auburn....... quite possible ESPN starts negotiating early to avoid new data points the next two seasons which would work against any low ball offer.

I hope Aresco strings together a totally new, outside the box meda package..

some on ESPN, some on NBC, some on Amazon, etc.

Its the best way for us to maximize exposure and $

I have some charts I created in case he calls me to be part of the meetings. I'm on stand by.

I wonder if we'll go to 20 conference basketball games as a part of the next TV deal.

The Big Ten has announced it will go to a 20-game conference schedule (from the current 18) next season. The ACC is expected to do so the following season.

We've had 99 conference home games in the inventory the last several years. This year, we have 108. Going to 20 conference games gives us 120.

But more than that, if the other major basketball conferences go to 20, that means less nonconference opportunities to play us. We'd have to fill those spots with games against lesser conferences.

Might as well fill those spots with conference games.

(12-08-2017 06:44 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I wonder if we'll go to 20 conference basketball games as a part of the next TV deal.

The Big Ten has announced it will go to a 20-game conference schedule (from the current 18) next season. The ACC is expected to do so the following season.

We've had 99 conference home games in the inventory the last several years. This year, we have 108. Going to 20 conference games gives us 120.

But more than that, if the other major basketball conferences go to 20, that means less nonconference opportunities to play us. We'd have to fill those spots with games against lesser conferences.

Might as well fill those spots with conference games.

doubtful

the divide in the AAC is pretty big and the top 5 or so teams are not going to want to be forced to play the bottom 5 twice a year at this point. Those extra games are better for marquee OOC games for the top 5 or 6 teams.

(12-08-2017 06:46 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(12-08-2017 06:44 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I wonder if we'll go to 20 conference basketball games as a part of the next TV deal.

The Big Ten has announced it will go to a 20-game conference schedule (from the current 18) next season. The ACC is expected to do so the following season.

We've had 99 conference home games in the inventory the last several years. This year, we have 108. Going to 20 conference games gives us 120.

But more than that, if the other major basketball conferences go to 20, that means less nonconference opportunities to play us. We'd have to fill those spots with games against lesser conferences.

Might as well fill those spots with conference games.

doubtful

the divide in the AAC is pretty big and the top 5 or so teams are not going to want to be forced to play the bottom 5 twice a year at this point. Those extra games are better for marquee OOC games for the top 5 or 6 teams.

Going to 20 means that you play home and homes with all except 2 schools.

Just like it was the last 3 years.

This year, you play home ahd homes with all except 4 schools. Houston only sees the following schools once: Tulsa, Memphis, UConn and UCF.

If they do it right, scheduling strength on strength, going to 20 will help SOS, not hurt it.