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Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
Long term, I don't think the demographics of the Pac 12 footprint will maintain a steady interest in college football and the conference will continue to lag further and further behind.

One possible future for them could emerge if the SEC takes the Oklahoma schools and then eventually acquires Texas. This puts the Big Ten in a tight spot competitively and we might see a partial merger of the Big Ten and Pac 12 AAU schools.
01-05-2018 07:41 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-05-2018 07:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Long term, I don't think the demographics of the Pac 12 footprint will maintain a steady interest in college football and the conference will continue to lag further and further behind.

One possible future for them could emerge if the SEC takes the Oklahoma schools and then eventually acquires Texas. This puts the Big Ten in a tight spot competitively and we might see a partial merger of the Big Ten and Pac 12 AAU schools.

I'm not saying that these are the schools the Big 10 would want, but they are the more natural fits.

In the East: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech.

In the West: Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and California.

The SEC would only be in contention for the North Carolina and Virginia schools to the East and probably only in contention for Texas and Oklahoma in the West. We might look at Kansas as a partnering school, but then again we might not.

So expanding by 8 from the PAC, and picking up two from the Big 12 a conference of 24 would be fairly easily obtained and virtually all of them AAU.
01-05-2018 08:08 PM
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Post: #63
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-04-2018 04:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-04-2018 03:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-04-2018 01:58 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What they are facing is the fact that California dreaming isn't really helping their recruiting on the West Coast, the travel is expensive, and the two schools they play are both capable of handing them losses.

If I were ND I would continue playing USC every year at least. In addition to the cache of that rivalry, several of the best high school football programs in SoCal are at Catholic high schools, and ND recruits them very well.

Also, I don't know where all of ND's support comes from, but to the extent ND is courting support from Catholics who did not attend Notre Dame, there are more Catholics living in California than in any other state, by far. The media could talk about "subway alumni" in New York when ND won their 1966 national title, and New York was the most populous state and home to the largest number of Catholics, but today California has 5 million more Catholics and twice the overall population of New York.

A good % of Catholic's in California are Hispanic and their love of American Football isn't exactly deep.

That is equally true of Catholics in New York, so either way California is a better place for ND to find Catholics who support Notre Dame football.

The overwhelming majority of Hispanics in New York are Puerto Ricans, and they love American football, and baseball as well.
01-06-2018 12:04 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-05-2018 08:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 07:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Long term, I don't think the demographics of the Pac 12 footprint will maintain a steady interest in college football and the conference will continue to lag further and further behind.

One possible future for them could emerge if the SEC takes the Oklahoma schools and then eventually acquires Texas. This puts the Big Ten in a tight spot competitively and we might see a partial merger of the Big Ten and Pac 12 AAU schools.

I'm not saying that these are the schools the Big 10 would want, but they are the more natural fits.

In the East: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech.

In the West: Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and California.

The SEC would only be in contention for the North Carolina and Virginia schools to the East and probably only in contention for Texas and Oklahoma in the West. We might look at Kansas as a partnering school, but then again we might not.

So expanding by 8 from the PAC, and picking up two from the Big 12 a conference of 24 would be fairly easily obtained and virtually all of them AAU.

I agree with your list but I'd drop Utah and add Arizona as possible western options.

I mentioned in another thread about the possibility of 20 member mega conferences andand as long as they maintain 4 divisions of 5 could, under current rules, crown 2 champs. Maybe the SEC and Big Ten could come to an agreement as to who gets those schools that they have mutual interest in and that becomes our new model
01-07-2018 05:39 PM
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Post: #65
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-06-2018 12:04 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  
(01-04-2018 04:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-04-2018 03:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-04-2018 01:58 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What they are facing is the fact that California dreaming isn't really helping their recruiting on the West Coast, the travel is expensive, and the two schools they play are both capable of handing them losses.

If I were ND I would continue playing USC every year at least. In addition to the cache of that rivalry, several of the best high school football programs in SoCal are at Catholic high schools, and ND recruits them very well.

Also, I don't know where all of ND's support comes from, but to the extent ND is courting support from Catholics who did not attend Notre Dame, there are more Catholics living in California than in any other state, by far. The media could talk about "subway alumni" in New York when ND won their 1966 national title, and New York was the most populous state and home to the largest number of Catholics, but today California has 5 million more Catholics and twice the overall population of New York.

A good % of Catholic's in California are Hispanic and their love of American Football isn't exactly deep.

That is equally true of Catholics in New York, so either way California is a better place for ND to find Catholics who support Notre Dame football.

The overwhelming majority of Hispanics in New York are Puerto Ricans, and they love American football, and baseball as well.

Baseball, while not quite universal in all Hispanic countries, is pretty darned popular across the board. Mexico, Cuba, Most of the Islands in the Atlantic, and a goodly portion of South America play baseball.

As to Puerto Ricans, the are a U.S. Territory and have adapted well to our culture as a result. Mexicans, Central Americans and South Americans don't take quickly to football and since those make up the majority of Hispanics in Southern California, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, and the Southeast with the exception of South Florida it makes a big difference.
01-07-2018 06:34 PM
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TerryD Online
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-02-2018 03:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 11:34 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  USC is the biggest rival for Notre Dame - the Trojans are not going away. Stanford is relatively new and could be on the chopping block, IMO.

Having both USC and Stanford on the schedule means the Irish get to play in the state of California every year instead of every other year..

I am always reminded by the Irish, that he who tries to hold onto everything, is incapable of holding onto the most important things. The world has changed around them. Now they have to decide what it is that is the most important to them. They can not continue to juggle Stanford, U.S.C. a prominent Big 10 game, Navy, and play half of an ACC schedule.

It's pretty clear to everyone that the vast majority of recruits are in the Southeast/Southwest. The reason for playing in California every year has changed with the cultural interests of the regions. There is little that they now need that cannot be provided by the ACC. They need to play more games in the Southeast and maintain their alumni base in New York and New England. If they joined in full they would have direct access to the CFP, more Southeastern exposure, games in the Northeast and 3 open games for Navy, U.S.C. and a Big 10 foe. But they would be better served with Cincinnati as a G5 in lieu of a Big 10 game, and keeping U.S.C. w/o Stanford.

ND is simply not going to quit playing Southern Cal and Stanford every year.

Not that Stanford is a long time traditional rivalry, but ND considers it a school that it wants to associate with. Former ND president Father Edmund "Monk" Malloy called Stanford ND's "aspirational peer".

ND wants to play in California every year and will continue to do so.

Don't get caught up in anything that Brian Kelly says about schedules. He has no real say.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 07:47 AM by TerryD.)
01-08-2018 07:34 AM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-03-2018 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 10:16 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  This season Notre Dame played Temple, Miami(OH), and Navy. That's 3 G5 teams, which is typical for a P5 schedule and most contenders only play 2 non P5 opponents.

The problem for the Irish this year was the number of ranked teams: Georgia, Michigan State, NC State, USC, Miami, Stanford. That can happen in a conference, too.

That's true, but not nearly as likely since N.D. likes to play names to appease their singular TV contract which Mark, is not competitive with their earning potential in a conference where everyone's brand is used to leverage the amounts.

Let's say N.D. is in a conference. Let's say that conference has 5 ranked teams (a high side estimate even for the SEC) will they play all 5? No. The no conference favors having all their brands play each other which is why we have divisions.

Notre Dame makes 22 million roughly on their TV contract as an independent. There's not one single P conference making that little. Add the advantages of the T3 pooled revenue on a conference network and the gap is even larger.

What they are facing is the fact that California dreaming isn't really helping their recruiting on the West Coast, the travel is expensive, and the two schools they play are both capable of handing them losses.

The recruiting is better in the Southeast and Southwest and yet their schedule isn't really providing them with double access to the Southeast efficiently. Hence the Georgia and Arkansas series they scheduled.

I submit that this is their moment of great decision. Do we stay independent and tweak the schedule South as opposed to West? Do we join a conference in full? If so do we go for recruiting access and stay with the ACC or do we just grab the most cash and head to the Big 10?

While I don't know what they will do, if I were their A.D. and could ignore their Alums I would choose the ACC in full because it checks the most boxes. Southeast exposure on a regular and efficient basis, maintained presence in New England and New York, and the money will improve with our inclusion and with the new network.

I know N.D. is 11th in total revenue now, but it has been 30 years since their last championship in football and they've never won one in men's basketball or baseball.

Heck even the sports writers, who once drooled over N.D. and gave them props when that cred was not due, are dying out now and retiring in record numbers. Add to that the secular nature of today's world and these kids they are recruiting don't see the history that made them special. So they have window that is closing on them and they need to win big now or be forgotten like Fordham and Carlisle.

Playing and beating Clemson and Florida State will now provide the same credibility that they once achieved by beating U.S.C. and Michigan. The ACC still has enough schools that will fall below the Irish in the pecking order that an all ACC schedule will be less difficult than what they try to achieve now and even better if they win the ACC they get in during most years. If we move to a P4 champs only format it would be a lock.

N.D. has been scheduling like it's 1980 and they need a couple of brand wins and a national presence. In 1980 they had plenty of other independents to play. No longer is that the case. Conferences have consolidated the power and N.D.'s power is waning big time by being the lone wolf out of the pack.

I think a big decision is coming and that it "might" link up with the launch of a conference network.

With all due respect, ND football won 10 games two of the last three years and just beat a traditional SEC power in a New Year's Day bowl.

ND is currently ranked #6 by Rivals in recruiting.

ND basketball won the ACC a couple of years ago and finished in the Elite 8 two of the past three years.

ND baseball blows since Paul Manieri left for LSU, but ND hockey is currently ranked #1 in the country and is 12-0 in the Big Ten hockey conference.

ND lacrosse, women's basketball (ranked #2 in the country) and other minor sports are also doing well.

You paint a much more dire picture about ND sports and its present/future than what actually exists.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 07:46 AM by TerryD.)
01-08-2018 07:40 AM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-04-2018 08:23 AM)bullet Wrote:  Notre
(01-03-2018 02:30 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 10:16 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  This season Notre Dame played Temple, Miami(OH), and Navy. That's 3 G5 teams, which is typical for a P5 schedule and most contenders only play 2 non P5 opponents.

The problem for the Irish this year was the number of ranked teams: Georgia, Michigan State, NC State, USC, Miami, Stanford. That can happen in a conference, too.

That's true, but not nearly as likely since N.D. likes to play names to appease their singular TV contract which Mark, is not competitive with their earning potential in a conference where everyone's brand is used to leverage the amounts.

Let's say N.D. is in a conference. Let's say that conference has 5 ranked teams (a high side estimate even for the SEC) will they play all 5? No. The no conference favors having all their brands play each other which is why we have divisions.

Notre Dame makes 22 million roughly on their TV contract as an independent. There's not one single P conference making that little. Add the advantages of the T3 pooled revenue on a conference network and the gap is even larger.

What they are facing is the fact that California dreaming isn't really helping their recruiting on the West Coast, the travel is expensive, and the two schools they play are both capable of handing them losses.

The recruiting is better in the Southeast and Southwest and yet their schedule isn't really providing them with double access to the Southeast efficiently. Hence the Georgia and Arkansas series they scheduled.

I submit that this is their moment of great decision. Do we stay independent and tweak the schedule South as opposed to West? Do we join a conference in full? If so do we go for recruiting access and stay with the ACC or do we just grab the most cash and head to the Big 10?

While I don't know what they will do, if I were their A.D. and could ignore their Alums I would choose the ACC in full because it checks the most boxes. Southeast exposure on a regular and efficient basis, maintained presence in New England and New York, and the money will improve with our inclusion and with the new network.

I know N.D. is 11th in total revenue now, but it has been 30 years since their last championship in football and they've never won one in men's basketball or baseball.

Heck even the sports writers, who once drooled over N.D. and gave them props when that cred was not due, are dying out now and retiring in record numbers. Add to that the secular nature of today's world and these kids they are recruiting don't see the history that made them special. So they have window that is closing on them and they need to win big now or be forgotten like Fordham and Carlisle.

Playing and beating Clemson and Florida State will now provide the same credibility that they once achieved by beating U.S.C. and Michigan. The ACC still has enough schools that will fall below the Irish in the pecking order that an all ACC schedule will be less difficult than what they try to achieve now and even better if they win the ACC they get in during most years. If we move to a P4 champs only format it would be a lock.

N.D. has been scheduling like it's 1980 and they need a couple of brand wins and a national presence. In 1980 they had plenty of other independents to play. No longer is that the case. Conferences have consolidated the power and N.D.'s power is waning big time by being the lone wolf out of the pack.

I think a big decision is coming and that it "might" link up with the launch of a conference network.

Yes, they better get while the getting is good.

One of these days, they're not going to be as attractive and their choices could be made for them.

Notre Dame is still the biggest draw. Getting to the title game in 2012 was important to maintain relevance. But time is slipping away for them. They have 3 issues:

3. Aging fan base. The 3rd and 4th generation Irish Catholics in NYC aren't as tied to them as they once were. Hard to imagine now with 6 Catholics, 2 Jews and 1 Protestant on the Supreme Court, but not that long ago, there had never been a Catholic on the Court. It was dominated by Protestants. JFK was the first Catholic president. It was nearly as big a deal as Obama as the first Black president. They don't have that automatic connection anymore.
2. After two losses, they have little to play for. Meanwhile, their opponents are still gunning for them.
1. Their laudable goal of keeping the University president the highest paid person on campus means schools like Alabama will be paying their coordinators more than Notre Dame pays its head coach. It will get harder and harder to get top flight coaches.

Fixing #2 may help with #3, but they will never be what they once were. #1 is a real problem regardless of whether they join a conference or not.

Recruiting isn't as big an issue. The Big 10 gets more recruits out of Florida than anywhere else. You just need recruiters with connections to the high schools to get your foot in the door. The Big 12 schools the last couple of years have done better in Louisiana than SEC schools not named LSU.

#1 is a myth. Brian Kelly makes $5.5 million a year from all sources.

They just had a handshake deal with former DC Mike Elko to increase his pay from $1 million a year to $1.5 million. He then came back with A&M's $1.8 million dollar offer after agreeing to an extension with ND. They told him to pound sand, but it is not like ND is not paying coaches a competitive salary.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 07:50 AM by TerryD.)
01-08-2018 07:44 AM
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TerryD Online
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Post: #69
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-04-2018 03:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-04-2018 01:58 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What they are facing is the fact that California dreaming isn't really helping their recruiting on the West Coast, the travel is expensive, and the two schools they play are both capable of handing them losses.

If I were ND I would continue playing USC every year at least. In addition to the cache of that rivalry, several of the best high school football programs in SoCal are at Catholic high schools, and ND recruits them very well.

Also, I don't know where all of ND's support comes from, but to the extent ND is courting support from Catholics who did not attend Notre Dame, there are more Catholics living in California than in any other state, by far. The media could talk about "subway alumni" in New York when ND won their 1966 national title, and New York was the most populous state and home to the largest number of Catholics, but today California has 5 million more Catholics and twice the overall population of New York.

A good % of Catholic's in California are Hispanic and their love of American Football isn't exactly deep.

I travel to San Antonio often for ND football and baseball games.

The are a large number of Hispanics in the San Antonio area that are huge ND fans.
01-08-2018 07:45 AM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 07:40 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 10:16 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  This season Notre Dame played Temple, Miami(OH), and Navy. That's 3 G5 teams, which is typical for a P5 schedule and most contenders only play 2 non P5 opponents.

The problem for the Irish this year was the number of ranked teams: Georgia, Michigan State, NC State, USC, Miami, Stanford. That can happen in a conference, too.

That's true, but not nearly as likely since N.D. likes to play names to appease their singular TV contract which Mark, is not competitive with their earning potential in a conference where everyone's brand is used to leverage the amounts.

Let's say N.D. is in a conference. Let's say that conference has 5 ranked teams (a high side estimate even for the SEC) will they play all 5? No. The no conference favors having all their brands play each other which is why we have divisions.

Notre Dame makes 22 million roughly on their TV contract as an independent. There's not one single P conference making that little. Add the advantages of the T3 pooled revenue on a conference network and the gap is even larger.

What they are facing is the fact that California dreaming isn't really helping their recruiting on the West Coast, the travel is expensive, and the two schools they play are both capable of handing them losses.

The recruiting is better in the Southeast and Southwest and yet their schedule isn't really providing them with double access to the Southeast efficiently. Hence the Georgia and Arkansas series they scheduled.

I submit that this is their moment of great decision. Do we stay independent and tweak the schedule South as opposed to West? Do we join a conference in full? If so do we go for recruiting access and stay with the ACC or do we just grab the most cash and head to the Big 10?

While I don't know what they will do, if I were their A.D. and could ignore their Alums I would choose the ACC in full because it checks the most boxes. Southeast exposure on a regular and efficient basis, maintained presence in New England and New York, and the money will improve with our inclusion and with the new network.

I know N.D. is 11th in total revenue now, but it has been 30 years since their last championship in football and they've never won one in men's basketball or baseball.

Heck even the sports writers, who once drooled over N.D. and gave them props when that cred was not due, are dying out now and retiring in record numbers. Add to that the secular nature of today's world and these kids they are recruiting don't see the history that made them special. So they have window that is closing on them and they need to win big now or be forgotten like Fordham and Carlisle.

Playing and beating Clemson and Florida State will now provide the same credibility that they once achieved by beating U.S.C. and Michigan. The ACC still has enough schools that will fall below the Irish in the pecking order that an all ACC schedule will be less difficult than what they try to achieve now and even better if they win the ACC they get in during most years. If we move to a P4 champs only format it would be a lock.

N.D. has been scheduling like it's 1980 and they need a couple of brand wins and a national presence. In 1980 they had plenty of other independents to play. No longer is that the case. Conferences have consolidated the power and N.D.'s power is waning big time by being the lone wolf out of the pack.

I think a big decision is coming and that it "might" link up with the launch of a conference network.

With all due respect, ND football won 10 games two of the last three years and just beat a traditional SEC power in a New Year's Day bowl.

ND is currently ranked #6 by Rivals in recruiting.

ND basketball won the ACC a couple of years ago and finished in the Elite 8 two of the past three years.

ND baseball blows since Paul Manieri left for LSU, but ND hockey is currently ranked #1 in the country and is 12-0 in the Big Ten hockey conference.

ND lacrosse, women's basketball (ranked #2 in the country) and other minor sports are also doing well.

You paint a much more dire picture about ND sports and its present/future than what actually exists.

Look what part time conference affiliation has done for the Irish........you're welcome!04-cheers
01-08-2018 11:08 AM
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Post: #71
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
Terry,

I don't think anyone's saying that Notre Dame is in a bad place right now. I think we're saying that ND is going to have to make some decisions in the future because the football prowess has been trending down for the last 3 decades.

At the end of the day, football drives the bus for any power program. For Notre Dame, they have sustained independence and foregone the benefits of conference membership because of the truly special football brand that they have, but no brand is 100% self-perpetuating.

The post Lou Holtz era has been up and down to say the least. National championship level teams haven't come nearly as often as they once did. In fact, the only time ND produced an undefeated team in recent years(2012) turned out to be an occasion where they were thoroughly outmatched on every level by their title game opponent. Now, we could write that off as an isolated incident because ND wouldn't be the first team Alabama has shown up in the past decade. What's more telling though is that ND hasn't really been in the hunt outside of that season.

We can't ignore that because as the world changes around ND, the Irish must compensate somehow to maintain their course.

This season was pretty good, but ND tapered off near the end and was dominated by a Miami team that looked anything but unbeatable during the season. Point being, ND's best years don't look like the best years of all the powers around them. Something has changed.

Now, it's entirely possible that ND under Brian Kelly is about to start running off great seasons, but the last 20 years or so wouldn't indicate that.

At some point, ND is going to have to do something to secure their economic future because right now the economics of it are pretty much the only thing sustaining ND's place in the world. In a sense, it's like you're a guy who spent a long life in the work force and is currently enjoying the fruits of retirement. Problem is that the bank account is getting low and the doctor just told you that you're going to live for another 80 years. If ND maintains good but not great status for another 20 years then things might start to look very different. All of a sudden, you're going to need history majors to figure out exactly where ND fell off the map.

Let's look at it like this...when did the day come when Notre Dame felt the need to sign a deal with a league like the ACC for 5 games a season?

Those of us on the outside looking in tend to marvel at how ND was able to swing a sweetheart deal like that, but we're actually looking at it in reverse. 30 or 40 years ago, that never would have happened. ND would not have in any way needed the ACC. What changed? When did the leverage shift?

Actually, I think that's a fine example of time marching on. ND is still powerful enough that they don't have to fully join a conference. They are no longer powerful enough, however, that they can be truly independent of any conference.

The great benefit of a good conference is that the total value outweighs the sum of the parts. As a collective, any good conference helps lift the sails of all its members. That's not just a matter of good competition. It's a matter of economics.

So right now, Notre Dame is fine because you're Notre Dame. What happens when Notre Dame isn't Notre Dame anymore?
01-08-2018 12:03 PM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 12:03 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  The post Lou Holtz era has been up and down to say the least. National championship level teams haven't come nearly as often as they once did.

Which king program hasn't gone through this?

With Saban, Alabama has made almost every other team look ordinary, but look at the Tide between the retirement of Stallings and the hire of Saban.

USC between Robinson I and Carroll, and after Carroll.

Texas after 2009. Also: David McWilliams. John Mackovic.

Michigan, Ohio State, etc., etc. They all have had down periods.

Also, joining a conference isn't a cure-all for a football program's ups and downs. Miami is the best example of that. The best thing you can say about football indies that have joined a major conference is that they leveraged football to improve the situation for their other sports -- again, Miami is one of the best examples of that; Florida State and South Carolina are also good examples. But, Notre Dame already obtained those advantages while retaining nominal football independence.
01-08-2018 12:30 PM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 12:03 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Terry,

I don't think anyone's saying that Notre Dame is in a bad place right now. I think we're saying that ND is going to have to make some decisions in the future because the football prowess has been trending down for the last 3 decades.

At the end of the day, football drives the bus for any power program. For Notre Dame, they have sustained independence and foregone the benefits of conference membership because of the truly special football brand that they have, but no brand is 100% self-perpetuating.

The post Lou Holtz era has been up and down to say the least. National championship level teams haven't come nearly as often as they once did. In fact, the only time ND produced an undefeated team in recent years(2012) turned out to be an occasion where they were thoroughly outmatched on every level by their title game opponent. Now, we could write that off as an isolated incident because ND wouldn't be the first team Alabama has shown up in the past decade. What's more telling though is that ND hasn't really been in the hunt outside of that season.

We can't ignore that because as the world changes around ND, the Irish must compensate somehow to maintain their course.

This season was pretty good, but ND tapered off near the end and was dominated by a Miami team that looked anything but unbeatable during the season. Point being, ND's best years don't look like the best years of all the powers around them. Something has changed.

Now, it's entirely possible that ND under Brian Kelly is about to start running off great seasons, but the last 20 years or so wouldn't indicate that.

At some point, ND is going to have to do something to secure their economic future because right now the economics of it are pretty much the only thing sustaining ND's place in the world. In a sense, it's like you're a guy who spent a long life in the work force and is currently enjoying the fruits of retirement. Problem is that the bank account is getting low and the doctor just told you that you're going to live for another 80 years. If ND maintains good but not great status for another 20 years then things might start to look very different. All of a sudden, you're going to need history majors to figure out exactly where ND fell off the map.

Let's look at it like this...when did the day come when Notre Dame felt the need to sign a deal with a league like the ACC for 5 games a season?

Those of us on the outside looking in tend to marvel at how ND was able to swing a sweetheart deal like that, but we're actually looking at it in reverse. 30 or 40 years ago, that never would have happened. ND would not have in any way needed the ACC. What changed? When did the leverage shift?

Actually, I think that's a fine example of time marching on. ND is still powerful enough that they don't have to fully join a conference. They are no longer powerful enough, however, that they can be truly independent of any conference.

The great benefit of a good conference is that the total value outweighs the sum of the parts. As a collective, any good conference helps lift the sails of all its members. That's not just a matter of good competition. It's a matter of economics.

So right now, Notre Dame is fine because you're Notre Dame. What happens when Notre Dame isn't Notre Dame anymore?



Well, past history is just that. Past history. I thought that ND fans were the ones supposedly stuck in the past. :)

A rather small nit. ND hadn't been trending down for three decades, but only for 20 years (1993-2012). :)

It had a great run from 1988-93, but hadn't been the same since it forced out Lou Holtz and hired a series of mediocre coaches.

But, ND won 12 games in 2012 and 10 games each in 2015 and 2017. That didn't happen at all (double digit wins) between 1993-2012, except for 10 win seasons in 2002 and 2006.

Three double digit wins in 6 years and two in three years is a change in the right direction.

First, I think that the program is in much better shape today than at any time since 1993. Kelly has gone 69-34, recruited well and has brought much needed stability to the program in his eight years at the helm.

Certainly, he has been the best post-Holtz head coach, by a long shot. He is no Rockne or Ara, but much better than Davie, Willingham and Weis.

Second, I am pretty much convinced that the ND administration doesn't really want to do everything necessary to win a championship or really cares about winning national titles any longer. They don't want football to become too big again and, in their minds, overshadow academics.

They would certainly market the hell out of a national championship if the chips fell just right (like perhaps if in 2012 ND ended up playing Kansas State instead of Alabama?), but the administration doesn't really want to do whatever is necessary to compete with Alabama, Ohio State, etc....

The administration forced out Frank Leahy in 1953, Ara Parseghian in 1974 and Lou Holtz in 1996 over similar "overshadowing" concerns, so this is a fairly routine, cyclical thing at ND.

The current administration seems want to maintain 9-10 wins and hope/let the money keep coming in from the fans, NBC, Under Armour and donors. That seems to be the current goal to have a program that is good enough to be maybe top ten to fifteen, that seems to be the desired goal.

Otherwise, ND could lower academic standards for football players (often overstated, but clearly higher than NCAA standards) and could try to make a big splash by offering a big time coach $10 million a year.

They won't do either. They also will continue to kick kids out or suspend them for failing to meet internal ND academic standards (remember Julius Jones, for instance? He had to sit out the 2002 season because he didn't meet ND's standards but was NCAA eligible and would have played in many other places) and for things like having a girl in the dorms or hotel room after curfew (like they suspended RB Deon MacIntosh from the 2018 Citrus Bowl).

If that is the case (that ND won't go all out to win championships), and given that ND wants to be the national Catholic university, why worry about things like the playoffs and football conference membership?

They would rather schedule like they did this year, with trips to Boston, Miami and Palo Alto, than do what JR suggests.

His ideas are not what ND wants, not what they hope to accomplish, not their goals. To the administration, it is about more than just football.

In other words, "good but not great" is good enough for ND's administration. It drives ND football fans wild, but that seems to be the current landscape.

ND seems to have decided that the best way the football program can serve ND's internal (non-sports) goals is to continue to be a football independent indefinitely, come what may.

ND uses independence to attract students from all over the country. It thinks that the national exposure of its schedules helps in that regard.

That is why ND clings to indy status despite all of the perceived drawbacks from same that non-ND fans discuss on message boards.

So, it is really not even a football issue primarily when it comes to ND football scheduling. Brian Kelly is just (for now) the football coach. He has almost zero say about the football schedules.

I think that fans of other programs look at the ND situation all wrong, thinking that ND's administration thinks like other traditional programs do and will make decisions accordingly. It doesn't.

If ND wanted to make the most TV money (the main driver of conference realignment) then it would have simply joined the Big Ten. Instead, there was no chance of that. Likewise, ND could likely make more TV money by joining the ACC in full, but it isn't likely to do that, either.

ND isn't run like Alabama, Ohio State or Texas. It just isn't. It also often doesn't think the way that other programs do, as far as analyzing goals and methods.

ND was not interested in positioning itself to maximize its TV revenues. I know that is some kind of conference realignment heresy, but it is true.

Hell, it could have put its TV rights on the market for ESPN and others to bid, but did not bother to do that.

It just renewed with NBC instead, at a time (2013) of rising TV contracts by ESPN and Fox.

It sees the NBC contract merely as a means to an end, in that it "makes enough" TV money to keep ND football independent. That is the goal, independence by and for itself.

The TV money is just a way to accomplish and maintain that independence.

ND athletics fully funds all of its athletic programs/scholarships and still sends about millions every year to the academic side of the university:

"Notre Dame plans to continue using revenues from the contract to fund the school's financial-aid endowment for the general student body, not including athletes. The school said that since 1991, about 6,300 undergraduates have received nearly $80 million in aid from revenue generated through the NBC contract.

Notre Dame also uses NBC revenues to endow doctoral fellowships in its graduate school and MBA scholarships in its Mendoza College of Business."

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...-deal-2025


It could keep that profit within the athletic department but doesn't think that way.

That is my long winded version of saying that the ND administration actually likes where its athletic programs are right now and doesn't see any problems like other fans on the outside might think.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 03:58 PM by TerryD.)
01-08-2018 01:10 PM
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Post: #74
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 12:30 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-08-2018 12:03 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  The post Lou Holtz era has been up and down to say the least. National championship level teams haven't come nearly as often as they once did.

Which king program hasn't gone through this?

With Saban, Alabama has made almost every other team look ordinary, but look at the Tide between the retirement of Stallings and the hire of Saban.

USC between Robinson I and Carroll, and after Carroll.

Texas after 2009. Also: David McWilliams. John Mackovic.

Michigan, Ohio State, etc., etc. They all have had down periods.

Also, joining a conference isn't a cure-all for a football program's ups and downs. Miami is the best example of that. The best thing you can say about football indies that have joined a major conference is that they leveraged football to improve the situation for their other sports -- again, Miami is one of the best examples of that; Florida State and South Carolina are also good examples. But, Notre Dame already obtained those advantages while retaining nominal football independence.

That's not what I'm getting at.

Every great program has ups and downs on the field, absolutely. The question is an economic one more than anything. There's a reason all these other independents have joined leagues and it wasn't always about improving the quality of the football product. Nor am I saying that if Notre Dame does join a conference that their football product will once again become elite. It may never again become elite no matter what they do...nobody knows.

What I'm getting at is that Notre Dame, as an athletic entity, relies on two basic things for their revenue:

1. A great football reputation
2. A national following more likely to be made up of Catholics than anything else.

The football rep has taken a hit in the last 20 years in part because the world of college athletics has evolved while Notre Dame has not. Huge TV contracts are now a part of what makes the world go 'round. ND is disadvantaged here because as an independent, they can't draw on the earning power of a collection of marketable schools. They still get a good TV contract, no doubt, but it's not nearly as much as it could be if ND shared full media rights with a Power conference.

The other independents ultimately joined a league for one simple reason: there is strength in numbers. On its most basic level, what makes college athletics work is that you have institutions that are willing to cooperate with one another for the sake of mutual self-interest. The spirit of competition motivates these schools to engage with each other in a way that otherwise would be quite foreign and probably not at all productive with regard to facilitating the broad purpose of higher education. Of course, we can talk about academic partnerships, grant sharing, and the like, but that's an entirely different dynamic and really doesn't have anything to do with athletics.

The colleges bother to field athletic teams because, even when it costs money to do so, competing in sports and being successful in that effort brings positive attention to a school and helps indirectly achieve the goals of higher education. As much as people like to talk about these colleges being money-making machines, they're really in this game to promote themselves. They're trying to attract students, build alumni, and foster a sense of community that encourages loyalty. In a way, college athletic teams are like a product that the university is selling. They want their product to be the best it can be so they can get as much return on investment as possible.

The odd thing about this product is that it doesn't sell in a vacuum. In order for your product to be worth something, you have to have other schools who are interested in the same goals. Get these schools on the same page and all of sudden you're scheduling competitions against one another. It's not purely about winning or losing though. Remember, this is all about self-interest at the end of the day. So along came someone with the idea that getting a group of schools together to form conferences would multiply the effect of promoting the schools more than simply engaging in competition. They were right.

The stronger the relationships between these groups of schools, the better the promotion. Now, not everyone would engage in these relationships at the outset and for some it has taken quite some time to convince them to become a part of the collective. But remember what the goal of college athletics was in the first place...self-promotion. Conferences achieve that goal better than anything anyone else has come up with. Thus, all the big time independents of the last few decades, except Notre Dame, broke down and found a home and not a one of them has gone back.

Just about the only time a school leaves a conference is to get into a better one. In fact, the only school I know of that has abandoned their conference relationships for independence in the last few decades is BYU. They did it in an attempt to increase their exposure after in-state rival Utah had received an invite to the Pac 12. In other words, self-promotion was motivating the Cougars and they felt the need to make that move because maintaining a lesser association would have been harmful as it pertained to measuring themselves against Utah. Even then, they didn't pursue independence for its own sake. They would have surely taken an invite to the Pac 12 or the Big 12 had an offer been made. You could point to some other examples in past generations like Georgia Tech or South Carolina, but after fairly short periods they joined another conference. Any other schools pursuing independence did it purely to maintain or gain status as an FBS school.

For this point, it comes down to this: conferences are a means to an end. Self-promotion is the real game and as time passes Notre Dame is going to lose ground without the buoying effects of a conference partnership. That is especially true in an era when so much revenue is at stake. If ND continues on its path then it will fall down the ladder as numerous other P5 schools will start bringing in more revenue simply because of their association. That will make it harder for Notre Dame to compete and the whole thing becomes one vicious cycle.

On the 2nd point, Catholic identity in this county is not what it used to be. We can debate on whether or not the Catholic religion is gaining or losing steam in the US. What is really not up for debate is that Catholics have been integrated into every level of modern society. No longer do you find large swaths of people that will look down upon or mistrust someone simply because that person is Catholic. What that means is that Catholics in general are less likely to coalesce around their own commonality.

In the old days, it wouldn't have been a great exaggeration to say every Catholic football player wanted to go to Notre Dame or that every Catholic football fan felt some sort of connection to ND whether they went to the school or not. That time has passed.

I'm not Catholic, but in college I had a few friends who were. Not a one of them had an affinity for Notre Dame and they enjoyed seeing the Irish go down to Bama with glee. Remember, I'm from the Deep South where Catholicism is not remotely the predominant religion or demographic. One might think that in this sort of environment, a particular demographic would be more likely to link arms. These Catholics felt no allegiance to ND in any way whatsoever.

Now with certainty, there are some parts of the country where Notre Dame is still pretty darn popular, but the two spheres I've outlined above are no longer working in Notre Dame's favor. That means one thing. If Notre Dame doesn't draw a special level of attention to themselves by being an elite football squad then eventually they become an also-ran. It's just a matter of time.

If I was running Notre Dame then I would think long and hard about this and I would probably be more proactive than reactive. The longer ND waits, the more these trends have time to take hold. I would rather spend my time building on Notre Dame's legacy than re-building it because of lost time.
01-08-2018 04:03 PM
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Post: #75
RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 01:10 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Well, past history is just that. Past history. I thought that ND fans were the ones supposedly stuck in the past. :)

You're talking to an Alabama fan. All I did was live in the past until about 2007. I'm very comfortable there...lol

My point though is that the past is the best indicator of what will happen in the future. The last 20 years have been very atypical in Notre Dame's history which means something somewhere has gone awry.

(01-08-2018 01:10 PM)TerryD Wrote:  A rather small nit. ND hadn't been trending down for three decades, but only for 20 years (1993-2012). :)

It had a great run from 1988-93, but hadn't been the same since it forced out Lou Holtz and hired a series of mediocre coaches.

But, ND won 12 games in 2012 and 10 games each in 2015 and 2017. That didn't happen at all (double digit wins) between 1993-2012, except for 10 win seasons in 2002 and 2006.

Three double digit wins in 6 years and two in three years is a change in the right direction.

First, I think that the program is in much better shape today than at any time since 1993. Kelly has gone 69-34, recruited well and has brought much needed stability to the program in his eight years at the helm.

Certainly, he has been the best post-Holtz head coach, by a long shot. He is no Rockne or Ara, but much better than Davie, Willingham and Weis.

Second, I am pretty much convinced that the ND administration doesn't really want to do everything necessary to win a championship or really cares about winning national titles any longer. They don't want football to become too big again and, in their minds, overshadow academics.

They would certainly market the hell out of a national championship if the chips fell just right (like perhaps if in 2012 ND ended up playing Kansas State instead of Alabama?), but the administration doesn't really want to do whatever is necessary to compete with Alabama, Ohio State, etc....

The administration forced out Frank Leahy in 1953, Ara Parseghian in 1974 and Lou Holtz in 1996 over similar "overshadowing" concerns, so this is a fairly routine, cyclical thing at ND.

The current administration seems want to maintain 9-10 wins and hope/let the money keep coming in from the fans, NBC, Under Armour and donors. That seems to be the current goal to have a program that is good enough to be maybe top ten to fifteen, that seems to be the desired goal.

Otherwise, ND could lower academic standards for football players (often overstated, but clearly higher than NCAA standards) and could try to make a big splash by offering a big time coach $10 million a year.

They won't do either. They also will continue to kick kids out or suspend them for failing to meet internal ND academic standards (remember Julius Jones, for instance? He had to sit out the 2002 season because he didn't meet ND's standards but was NCAA eligible and would have played in many other places) and for things like having a girl in the dorms or hotel room after curfew (like they suspended RB Deon MacIntosh from the 2018 Citrus Bowl).

If that is the case (that ND won't go all out to win championships), and given that ND wants to be the national Catholic university, why worry about things like the playoffs and football conference membership?

They would rather schedule like they did this year, with trips to Boston, Miami and Palo Alto, than do what JR suggests.

His ideas are not what ND wants, not what they hope to accomplish, not their goals. To the administration, it is about more than just football.

In other words, "good but not great" is good enough for ND's administration. It drives ND football fans wild, but that seems to be the current landscape.

ND seems to have decided that the best way the football program can serve ND's internal (non-sports) goals is to continue to be a football independent indefinitely, come what may.

ND uses independence to attract students from all over the country. It thinks that the national exposure of its schedules helps in that regard.

That is why ND clings to indy status despite all of the perceived drawbacks from same that non-ND fans discuss on message boards.

So, it is really not even a football issue primarily when it comes to ND football scheduling. Brian Kelly is just (for now) the football coach. He has almost zero say about the football schedules.

I think that fans of other programs look at the ND situation all wrong, thinking that ND's administration thinks like other traditional programs do and will make decisions accordingly. It doesn't.

If ND wanted to make the most TV money (the main driver of conference realignment) then it would have simply joined the Big Ten. Instead, there was no chance of that. Likewise, ND could likely make more TV money by joining the ACC in full, but it isn't likely to do that, either.

ND isn't run like Alabama, Ohio State or Texas. It just isn't. It also often doesn't think the way that other programs do, as far as analyzing goals and methods.

ND was not interested in positioning itself to maximize its TV revenues. I know that is some kind of conference realignment heresy, but it is true.

Hell, it could have put its TV rights on the market for ESPN and others to bid, but did not bother to do that.

It just renewed with NBC instead, at a time (2013) of rising TV contracts by ESPN and Fox.

It sees the NBC contract merely as a means to an end, in that it "makes enough" TV money to keep ND football independent. That is the goal, independence by and for itself.

The TV money is just a way to accomplish and maintain that independence.

ND athletics fully funds all of its athletic programs/scholarships and still sends about millions every year to the academic side of the university:

"Notre Dame plans to continue using revenues from the contract to fund the school's financial-aid endowment for the general student body, not including athletes. The school said that since 1991, about 6,300 undergraduates have received nearly $80 million in aid from revenue generated through the NBC contract.

Notre Dame also uses NBC revenues to endow doctoral fellowships in its graduate school and MBA scholarships in its Mendoza College of Business."

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...-deal-2025


It could keep that profit within the athletic department but doesn't think that way.

That is my long winded version of saying that the ND administration actually likes where its athletic programs are right now and doesn't see any problems like other fans on the outside might think.

See my post above where I tackle a lot of this.

I understand completely that it's not necessarily about football success. The higher level concerns are actually why I think Notre Dame needs to address its current situation.
01-08-2018 04:14 PM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 04:14 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-08-2018 01:10 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Well, past history is just that. Past history. I thought that ND fans were the ones supposedly stuck in the past. :)

You're talking to an Alabama fan. All I did was live in the past until about 2007. I'm very comfortable there...lol

My point though is that the past is the best indicator of what will happen in the future. The last 20 years have been very atypical in Notre Dame's history which means something somewhere has gone awry.

(01-08-2018 01:10 PM)TerryD Wrote:  A rather small nit. ND hadn't been trending down for three decades, but only for 20 years (1993-2012). :)

It had a great run from 1988-93, but hadn't been the same since it forced out Lou Holtz and hired a series of mediocre coaches.

But, ND won 12 games in 2012 and 10 games each in 2015 and 2017. That didn't happen at all (double digit wins) between 1993-2012, except for 10 win seasons in 2002 and 2006.

Three double digit wins in 6 years and two in three years is a change in the right direction.

First, I think that the program is in much better shape today than at any time since 1993. Kelly has gone 69-34, recruited well and has brought much needed stability to the program in his eight years at the helm.

Certainly, he has been the best post-Holtz head coach, by a long shot. He is no Rockne or Ara, but much better than Davie, Willingham and Weis.

Second, I am pretty much convinced that the ND administration doesn't really want to do everything necessary to win a championship or really cares about winning national titles any longer. They don't want football to become too big again and, in their minds, overshadow academics.

They would certainly market the hell out of a national championship if the chips fell just right (like perhaps if in 2012 ND ended up playing Kansas State instead of Alabama?), but the administration doesn't really want to do whatever is necessary to compete with Alabama, Ohio State, etc....

The administration forced out Frank Leahy in 1953, Ara Parseghian in 1974 and Lou Holtz in 1996 over similar "overshadowing" concerns, so this is a fairly routine, cyclical thing at ND.

The current administration seems want to maintain 9-10 wins and hope/let the money keep coming in from the fans, NBC, Under Armour and donors. That seems to be the current goal to have a program that is good enough to be maybe top ten to fifteen, that seems to be the desired goal.

Otherwise, ND could lower academic standards for football players (often overstated, but clearly higher than NCAA standards) and could try to make a big splash by offering a big time coach $10 million a year.

They won't do either. They also will continue to kick kids out or suspend them for failing to meet internal ND academic standards (remember Julius Jones, for instance? He had to sit out the 2002 season because he didn't meet ND's standards but was NCAA eligible and would have played in many other places) and for things like having a girl in the dorms or hotel room after curfew (like they suspended RB Deon MacIntosh from the 2018 Citrus Bowl).

If that is the case (that ND won't go all out to win championships), and given that ND wants to be the national Catholic university, why worry about things like the playoffs and football conference membership?

They would rather schedule like they did this year, with trips to Boston, Miami and Palo Alto, than do what JR suggests.

His ideas are not what ND wants, not what they hope to accomplish, not their goals. To the administration, it is about more than just football.

In other words, "good but not great" is good enough for ND's administration. It drives ND football fans wild, but that seems to be the current landscape.

ND seems to have decided that the best way the football program can serve ND's internal (non-sports) goals is to continue to be a football independent indefinitely, come what may.

ND uses independence to attract students from all over the country. It thinks that the national exposure of its schedules helps in that regard.

That is why ND clings to indy status despite all of the perceived drawbacks from same that non-ND fans discuss on message boards.

So, it is really not even a football issue primarily when it comes to ND football scheduling. Brian Kelly is just (for now) the football coach. He has almost zero say about the football schedules.

I think that fans of other programs look at the ND situation all wrong, thinking that ND's administration thinks like other traditional programs do and will make decisions accordingly. It doesn't.

If ND wanted to make the most TV money (the main driver of conference realignment) then it would have simply joined the Big Ten. Instead, there was no chance of that. Likewise, ND could likely make more TV money by joining the ACC in full, but it isn't likely to do that, either.

ND isn't run like Alabama, Ohio State or Texas. It just isn't. It also often doesn't think the way that other programs do, as far as analyzing goals and methods.

ND was not interested in positioning itself to maximize its TV revenues. I know that is some kind of conference realignment heresy, but it is true.

Hell, it could have put its TV rights on the market for ESPN and others to bid, but did not bother to do that.

It just renewed with NBC instead, at a time (2013) of rising TV contracts by ESPN and Fox.

It sees the NBC contract merely as a means to an end, in that it "makes enough" TV money to keep ND football independent. That is the goal, independence by and for itself.

The TV money is just a way to accomplish and maintain that independence.

ND athletics fully funds all of its athletic programs/scholarships and still sends about millions every year to the academic side of the university:

"Notre Dame plans to continue using revenues from the contract to fund the school's financial-aid endowment for the general student body, not including athletes. The school said that since 1991, about 6,300 undergraduates have received nearly $80 million in aid from revenue generated through the NBC contract.

Notre Dame also uses NBC revenues to endow doctoral fellowships in its graduate school and MBA scholarships in its Mendoza College of Business."

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...-deal-2025


It could keep that profit within the athletic department but doesn't think that way.

That is my long winded version of saying that the ND administration actually likes where its athletic programs are right now and doesn't see any problems like other fans on the outside might think.

See my post above where I tackle a lot of this.

I understand completely that it's not necessarily about football success. The higher level concerns are actually why I think Notre Dame needs to address its current situation.


Understood. My "thesis" is similar to yours except for one thing.

The priests that run ND (plus most alumni and well heeled donors) and make the major decisions do not see it that way. Quite the opposite in fact.

They strongly feel that independence is the best way to market their school, not by joining a conference (which they see as running counter to what they want for their school).

So, that is my basis for statements like "ND football is not going to join the ACC any time soon."

They are not going to give up their current status unless/until the playoffs are legally mandated as P4 champs only.

They feel that they can recruit players on the academics, alumni job network and a shot at the playoffs, even if it is a tougher road.

They know that once they are legally prohibited from qualifying for the playoffs they can no longer make that sale. If that happens, ND football will be in the ACC about ten minutes later.

But..until then, status quo.

(BTW, I enjoyed the discussion, thanks).
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 04:57 PM by TerryD.)
01-08-2018 04:55 PM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 12:03 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Terry,

I don't think anyone's saying that Notre Dame is in a bad place right now. I think we're saying that ND is going to have to make some decisions in the future because the football prowess has been trending down for the last 3 decades.

At the end of the day, football drives the bus for any power program. For Notre Dame, they have sustained independence and foregone the benefits of conference membership because of the truly special football brand that they have, but no brand is 100% self-perpetuating.

The post Lou Holtz era has been up and down to say the least. National championship level teams haven't come nearly as often as they once did. In fact, the only time ND produced an undefeated team in recent years(2012) turned out to be an occasion where they were thoroughly outmatched on every level by their title game opponent. Now, we could write that off as an isolated incident because ND wouldn't be the first team Alabama has shown up in the past decade. What's more telling though is that ND hasn't really been in the hunt outside of that season.

We can't ignore that because as the world changes around ND, the Irish must compensate somehow to maintain their course.

This season was pretty good, but ND tapered off near the end and was dominated by a Miami team that looked anything but unbeatable during the season. Point being, ND's best years don't look like the best years of all the powers around them. Something has changed.

Now, it's entirely possible that ND under Brian Kelly is about to start running off great seasons, but the last 20 years or so wouldn't indicate that.

At some point, ND is going to have to do something to secure their economic future because right now the economics of it are pretty much the only thing sustaining ND's place in the world. In a sense, it's like you're a guy who spent a long life in the work force and is currently enjoying the fruits of retirement. Problem is that the bank account is getting low and the doctor just told you that you're going to live for another 80 years. If ND maintains good but not great status for another 20 years then things might start to look very different. All of a sudden, you're going to need history majors to figure out exactly where ND fell off the map.

Let's look at it like this...when did the day come when Notre Dame felt the need to sign a deal with a league like the ACC for 5 games a season?

Those of us on the outside looking in tend to marvel at how ND was able to swing a sweetheart deal like that, but we're actually looking at it in reverse. 30 or 40 years ago, that never would have happened. ND would not have in any way needed the ACC. What changed? When did the leverage shift?

Actually, I think that's a fine example of time marching on. ND is still powerful enough that they don't have to fully join a conference. They are no longer powerful enough, however, that they can be truly independent of any conference.

The great benefit of a good conference is that the total value outweighs the sum of the parts. As a collective, any good conference helps lift the sails of all its members. That's not just a matter of good competition. It's a matter of economics.

So right now, Notre Dame is fine because you're Notre Dame. What happens when Notre Dame isn't Notre Dame anymore?
And Notre Dame still only had two options-the ACC and the Big 12, which supposedly wanted 6 conference games. The Big 10, SEC and Pac 12 wouldn't take them in partial membership and the Big East really didn't want them anymore with their football revenues overwhelming the BE schools in non-rev sports.

Now they have the ACC through 2036. But will the ACC always be happy with that deal?
01-08-2018 05:13 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 04:55 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Understood. My "thesis" is similar to yours except for one thing.

The priests that run ND (plus most alumni and well heeled donors) and make the major decisions do not see it that way. Quite the opposite in fact.

They strongly feel that independence is the best way to market their school, not by joining a conference (which they see as running counter to what they want for their school).

So, that is my basis for statements like "ND football is not going to join the ACC any time soon."

They are not going to give up their current status unless/until the playoffs are legally mandated as P4 champs only.

They feel that they can recruit players on the academics, alumni job network and a shot at the playoffs, even if it is a tougher road.

They know that once they are legally prohibited from qualifying for the playoffs they can no longer make that sale. If that happens, ND football will be in the ACC about ten minutes later.

But..until then, status quo.

(BTW, I enjoyed the discussion, thanks).

Indeed, good discussion.

You may be right, but I'm a little confused why the powers that be at ND would see it that way.

I can understand why independence could work very well with regard to certain priorities. It's worked quite well for many decades after all. I don't really see how it would be better though at achieving the goals we're laying out.

While I agree it's not all about the money, the ACC is actually quite advantageous for ND as opposed to the Big Ten where they could admittedly make more. You've got exposure in all the largest markets up and down the East Coast. You've got access to some of the best recruiting hot spots in the game. You're also ensured to be playing near large numbers of Catholics throughout some of the most Catholic rich areas of the country. Throw in exposure on a conference network in this same footprint and that's not a bad deal.

From a purely football perspective, they're already playing 5 games against ACC competition. This always represents 5 games in the type of markets that ND wants to promote themselves within.

That gives them 7 additional games to play with. Navy takes one and that generally represents a home game. If ND was interested in playing USC and Stanford annually then that's 2 more. We've got 4 left. The regular series' with Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue seemed to have been put on ice. Not that ND won't ever go back to playing them regularly, but obviously they altered their approach for a reason.

Basically the only regions of the country ND is not currently tapping on an annual basis are the Southwest, Upper Midwest, Mid-South, Northwest, and Rocky Mountain region. Now of course, not all of these regions could be tapped annually within reason and that's not such a big deal as most of the population centers of the country are outside of these areas.

What gets me though is that ND could take 3 more games against ACC competition and cement to a higher degree their exposure up and down the Eastern seaboard. That still gives them 1 extra game to flip flop between maybe a school from Texas or a school from the heart of the Midwest. Maybe throw BYU in every now and then. Now, that could be quite a difficult schedule in most years, but I don't see the downside as far as marketing the school.

The upside of course is that you immediately make a good bit more in TV money. ND could keep doing whatever it is they want to do with that money. The only difference is that they would have more of it.

You'd also have an opportunity to play for a conference championship. Another game against a strong opponent in a decent market is just another bonus for the goal of self promotion.
01-08-2018 05:44 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
In most discussions about the future of Notre Dame football, I see a consistent theme. Many posters look at ND's stance and assume that it could, and inevitably would, change if the money was right. They also assume that pursuit of national championships in football is the foremost consideration.

But as someone pointed out, the priests at ND have their own agenda, and it might not consider either of those things to be at or near the top of their list. People have underestimated the resolve of those leaders to put academic interests first for as long as I have heard the cynics.

When you have been saying something for fifty years, and backed your words with your actions, maybe you deserve to be believed and not cynically questioned.
01-08-2018 06:42 PM
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(01-08-2018 06:42 PM)ken d Wrote:  In most discussions about the future of Notre Dame football, I see a consistent theme. Many posters look at ND's stance and assume that it could, and inevitably would, change if the money was right. They also assume that pursuit of national championships in football is the foremost consideration.

But as someone pointed out, the priests at ND have their own agenda, and it might not consider either of those things to be at or near the top of their list. People have underestimated the resolve of those leaders to put academic interests first for as long as I have heard the cynics.

When you have been saying something for fifty years, and backed your words with your actions, maybe you deserve to be believed and not cynically questioned.

Its an interesting discussion, but the university president and faculty all voted to join the Big 10 less than 20 years ago. They felt it was in the university's best interest academically. At that point the alumni threw a fit and the board of trustees rejected it. All indications at the time were that the football fans wanting independence were the driving factors. Doesn't mean the media got it right, but that was the clear implication.
01-09-2018 11:20 AM
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