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What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
I am of the opinion that the new media model we are going to see is going to be a content driven one, not a market driven one. With that said, controlling content is going to be critical, not just in terms of quantity but quality.

The Big Ten and SEC are by far the most valuable conferences due to the brands they possess. If either of these conferences were to deprive their competitors of their biggest brands as well as some of above average ones you create a market situation where not only does your market value sky rocket because you've augmented yourself with 2-3 elite programs but also, with the addition of some of above average ones, the quality of the rights that the SEC and/or the Big Ten is significantly higher than your rivals dues to the percentage of controlling share of the entire market you have in your inventory. Compare the difference in value between the SEC and an ACC whose best brands are Florida St, Clemson, VT, etc and an SEC who now controls those aforementioned brands and an ACC whose best brands are now Pitt, Syracuse, and BC. A larger set of content also opens the doors for a BTN2 and SECN2 channel as well as digital and streaming platform services that can further enrich the conference war chest.

With that said, I think both conferences would benefit from pursuing a conference model where they have 20 or 24 teams.

Thoughts?
02-01-2018 04:55 PM
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ColKurtz Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
Not going to happen. Even 16 team conferences are iffy. Could make sense with carriage fees driving revenue but that may have already peaked. And the conference networks are already showing mostly content that the networks have passed on. There's no room for a second conference network.

Consider an ACC/SEC merger. That makes no sense because that would mean the SEC's earnings would be subsidizing the new ACC schools. Even FSU and Clemson wouldn't be bringing all of their weight because they are not adding new markets for carriage fees. Ditto for the B1G merging with anyone. Boards and presidents vote on expansion, not fans.

A scheduling arrangement between the highest profile would just as early accomplish adding inventory as voting to become a bloated mess.

If you're a fan of contraction and restoring regional rivalries, though, an 18+ team "conference" is the definitely the way to go, as it would quickly collapse under its own weight.
02-01-2018 05:18 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 05:18 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  Not going to happen. Even 16 team conferences are iffy. Could make sense with carriage fees driving revenue but that may have already peaked. And the conference networks are already showing mostly content that the networks have passed on. There's no room for a second conference network.

Consider an ACC/SEC merger. That makes no sense because that would mean the SEC's earnings would be subsidizing the new ACC schools. Even FSU and Clemson wouldn't be bringing all of their weight because they are not adding new markets for carriage fees. Ditto for the B1G merging with anyone. Boards and presidents vote on expansion, not fans.

A scheduling arrangement between the highest profile would just as early accomplish adding inventory as voting to become a bloated mess.

If you're a fan of contraction and restoring regional rivalries, though, an 18+ team "conference" is the definitely the way to go, as it would quickly collapse under its own weight.

As to the bolded part Muskie was saying that the model would have to be "content" based. We are rapidly headed away from subscription fee based pay models and toward "content" driven ones. Will that happen overnight? No. But it is coming much sooner than people care to think that it will.

It could be driving factor in further expansion, and it could also one day be a reason for groupings to leave some schools behind. I hope we don't get to that point, but it has to be acknowledged that when the group content value is the driving force that slots within that group will have to pull their weight.

And if the rights seeking organizations should lack competitiveness then larger associations for the sake of leveraging contracts might indicate larger conferences and not smaller ones. But that direction is presently unclear.

If FOX holds its Disney shares and stays in the sports broadcasting business then it's mutual relationship with Disney profits leaves some concerns about how competitive the sports rights business will be. If on the other hand rumors prove to be correct that FOX will sell out it's sports broadcast interests to Amazon, then competitiveness for rights will be quite healthy and the need to collectivize for leverage won't be a factor.

Right now the way the distributions are figured if either the SEC or Big 10 added either or both of Texas and Oklahoma it would be extremely difficult to suggest that any further additions added to everyone's bottom line.

I've quipped that if the SEC landed OU and UT the only other two schools that could still add value to the SEC would be Ohio State and Notre Dame. Certainly neither of those would ever join the SEC, but my point was if you want to end realignment for the Big 10 and SEC let Kansas and Texas head to the Big 10 and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State head the the SEC.

In all likelihood both the SEC and Big 10 would be out of the realignment business at that point and the sole reason would be no other additions (not even Virginia or UNC or USC and Stanford) could add to the bottom line. But then both of those additions would be both content additions as well as market additions so the receiving conferences would have hedged their bets as to the future direction of realignment.

However if we move to strictly a content driven model then yes the justification for Florida State and Clemson to the SEC could be made. They are worth much more to TV if they are playing Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, L.S.U., Texas A&M, Florida, Arkansas, and others than they would be worth playing just Miami and Virginia Tech with an occasional important game against Ga Tech, N.C. State, or UNC.

Each event in a content driven model becomes the basis for pay. The more intriguing the game the more you make. Clemson and F.S.U. are intriguing.

In that kind of model Virginia Tech and Miami would be of interest as well. The only thing that ever made N.C. State or UNC of interest was the market model. In a content driven world it is the competitiveness of every game that pays dividends. Conferences will reshape if this does indeed become the dominant pay model and I believe strongly that it will be within a decade.
02-01-2018 05:46 PM
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chess Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 05:18 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  Not going to happen. Even 16 team conferences are iffy. Could make sense with carriage fees driving revenue but that may have already peaked. And the conference networks are already showing mostly content that the networks have passed on. There's no room for a second conference network.

Consider an ACC/SEC merger. That makes no sense because that would mean the SEC's earnings would be subsidizing the new ACC schools. Even FSU and Clemson wouldn't be bringing all of their weight because they are not adding new markets for carriage fees. Ditto for the B1G merging with anyone. Boards and presidents vote on expansion, not fans.

A scheduling arrangement between the highest profile would just as early accomplish adding inventory as voting to become a bloated mess.

If you're a fan of contraction and restoring regional rivalries, though, an 18+ team "conference" is the definitely the way to go, as it would quickly collapse under its own weight.

Not if the merger is designed to dump the NCAA layer. Consider a Big Ten/ACC/Pac12 merger. The schools resign from the NCAA and create their own tournaments and championships.
02-01-2018 06:39 PM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
More likely: nothing major happens

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02-01-2018 06:58 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
Sounds like if it’s moving to a content driven pay, there’s going to be a lot less money being thrown around college football
02-01-2018 07:53 PM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
The blue bloods will be fine in a content driven model. The others? Maybe not so much.

I don't think anything will cause an 18, 20 or 24 conference structure to occur.
02-01-2018 07:59 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
An SEC that has the Texlahoma 4, Clemson, Florida St, and 4 more choice ACC schools controls more than half of the college football market and as such could probably distribute $50 million per school.

The Big 12 and ACC would roughly be on par with the old Big East in terms of value.
You then have the Pac 12, who has limited value and can't field content in the 12:00 eastern time slot. Better than the other two sure but still miles behind the Big Ten.
Then you have the Big Ten and with the new content you've grabbed you're still way ahead of them.

The south, college football's most passionate geographic region, is solidly in your control. In most of those states you either are the only show in town or vastly more popular than the other options in the state
02-01-2018 08:06 PM
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bullet Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
There could be some conference mergers in order to increase leverage with the networks. There has been discussion of having all the P5 negotiate together. Scott has been pushing that since he took office in the Pac 12.
02-01-2018 08:19 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 05:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-01-2018 05:18 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  Not going to happen. Even 16 team conferences are iffy. Could make sense with carriage fees driving revenue but that may have already peaked. And the conference networks are already showing mostly content that the networks have passed on. There's no room for a second conference network.

Consider an ACC/SEC merger. That makes no sense because that would mean the SEC's earnings would be subsidizing the new ACC schools. Even FSU and Clemson wouldn't be bringing all of their weight because they are not adding new markets for carriage fees. Ditto for the B1G merging with anyone. Boards and presidents vote on expansion, not fans.

A scheduling arrangement between the highest profile would just as early accomplish adding inventory as voting to become a bloated mess.

If you're a fan of contraction and restoring regional rivalries, though, an 18+ team "conference" is the definitely the way to go, as it would quickly collapse under its own weight.

As to the bolded part Muskie was saying that the model would have to be "content" based. We are rapidly headed away from subscription fee based pay models and toward "content" driven ones. Will that happen overnight? No. But it is coming much sooner than people care to think that it will.

It could be driving factor in further expansion, and it could also one day be a reason for groupings to leave some schools behind. I hope we don't get to that point, but it has to be acknowledged that when the group content value is the driving force that slots within that group will have to pull their weight.

And if the rights seeking organizations should lack competitiveness then larger associations for the sake of leveraging contracts might indicate larger conferences and not smaller ones. But that direction is presently unclear.

If FOX holds its Disney shares and stays in the sports broadcasting business then it's mutual relationship with Disney profits leaves some concerns about how competitive the sports rights business will be. If on the other hand rumors prove to be correct that FOX will sell out it's sports broadcast interests to Amazon, then competitiveness for rights will be quite healthy and the need to collectivize for leverage won't be a factor.

Right now the way the distributions are figured if either the SEC or Big 10 added either or both of Texas and Oklahoma it would be extremely difficult to suggest that any further additions added to everyone's bottom line.

I've quipped that if the SEC landed OU and UT the only other two schools that could still add value to the SEC would be Ohio State and Notre Dame. Certainly neither of those would ever join the SEC, but my point was if you want to end realignment for the Big 10 and SEC let Kansas and Texas head to the Big 10 and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State head the the SEC.

In all likelihood both the SEC and Big 10 would be out of the realignment business at that point and the sole reason would be no other additions (not even Virginia or UNC or USC and Stanford) could add to the bottom line. But then both of those additions would be both content additions as well as market additions so the receiving conferences would have hedged their bets as to the future direction of realignment.

However if we move to strictly a content driven model then yes the justification for Florida State and Clemson to the SEC could be made. They are worth much more to TV if they are playing Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, L.S.U., Texas A&M, Florida, Arkansas, and others than they would be worth playing just Miami and Virginia Tech with an occasional important game against Ga Tech, N.C. State, or UNC.

Each event in a content driven model becomes the basis for pay. The more intriguing the game the more you make. Clemson and F.S.U. are intriguing.

In that kind of model Virginia Tech and Miami would be of interest as well. The only thing that ever made N.C. State or UNC of interest was the market model. In a content driven world it is the competitiveness of every game that pays dividends. Conferences will reshape if this does indeed become the dominant pay model and I believe strongly that it will be within a decade.

I appreciate the support.

I think adding the Texlahoma 4, Florida St and Clemson is a case of

14 + 4 + 2 = 28

My logic behind going beyond that is it eliminates the value option that a network who isn't partnered with you could try to take by picking up ACC or Big 12 rights to cut into your territory. In gutting both leagues the end product is concentrating the best of 3 leagues into a conference roughly the size of 2 conferences. With streaming and conference owned/partially owned networks being the way of the future your large inventory becomes an asset rather than liability.
02-01-2018 09:17 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 08:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  There could be some conference mergers in order to increase leverage with the networks. There has been discussion of having all the P5 negotiate together. Scott has been pushing that since he took office in the Pac 12.

It won't happen until everyone's ox is gored. As long as there are a couple of big winners in the money game it won't happen. And I seriously doubt that anybody wants to help Scott.
02-01-2018 09:18 PM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
It's usually the entity that is currently getting the smallest slice of the pie that wants to negotiate as a group. I don't hear much from the B1G and the SEC about wanting the other conferences to be their partners in negotiating with the media. There's probably a reason for that.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2018 10:15 PM by ken d.)
02-01-2018 10:14 PM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 09:17 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-01-2018 05:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-01-2018 05:18 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  Not going to happen. Even 16 team conferences are iffy. Could make sense with carriage fees driving revenue but that may have already peaked. And the conference networks are already showing mostly content that the networks have passed on. There's no room for a second conference network.

Consider an ACC/SEC merger. That makes no sense because that would mean the SEC's earnings would be subsidizing the new ACC schools. Even FSU and Clemson wouldn't be bringing all of their weight because they are not adding new markets for carriage fees. Ditto for the B1G merging with anyone. Boards and presidents vote on expansion, not fans.

A scheduling arrangement between the highest profile would just as early accomplish adding inventory as voting to become a bloated mess.

If you're a fan of contraction and restoring regional rivalries, though, an 18+ team "conference" is the definitely the way to go, as it would quickly collapse under its own weight.

As to the bolded part Muskie was saying that the model would have to be "content" based. We are rapidly headed away from subscription fee based pay models and toward "content" driven ones. Will that happen overnight? No. But it is coming much sooner than people care to think that it will.

It could be driving factor in further expansion, and it could also one day be a reason for groupings to leave some schools behind. I hope we don't get to that point, but it has to be acknowledged that when the group content value is the driving force that slots within that group will have to pull their weight.

And if the rights seeking organizations should lack competitiveness then larger associations for the sake of leveraging contracts might indicate larger conferences and not smaller ones. But that direction is presently unclear.

If FOX holds its Disney shares and stays in the sports broadcasting business then it's mutual relationship with Disney profits leaves some concerns about how competitive the sports rights business will be. If on the other hand rumors prove to be correct that FOX will sell out it's sports broadcast interests to Amazon, then competitiveness for rights will be quite healthy and the need to collectivize for leverage won't be a factor.

Right now the way the distributions are figured if either the SEC or Big 10 added either or both of Texas and Oklahoma it would be extremely difficult to suggest that any further additions added to everyone's bottom line.

I've quipped that if the SEC landed OU and UT the only other two schools that could still add value to the SEC would be Ohio State and Notre Dame. Certainly neither of those would ever join the SEC, but my point was if you want to end realignment for the Big 10 and SEC let Kansas and Texas head to the Big 10 and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State head the the SEC.

In all likelihood both the SEC and Big 10 would be out of the realignment business at that point and the sole reason would be no other additions (not even Virginia or UNC or USC and Stanford) could add to the bottom line. But then both of those additions would be both content additions as well as market additions so the receiving conferences would have hedged their bets as to the future direction of realignment.

However if we move to strictly a content driven model then yes the justification for Florida State and Clemson to the SEC could be made. They are worth much more to TV if they are playing Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, L.S.U., Texas A&M, Florida, Arkansas, and others than they would be worth playing just Miami and Virginia Tech with an occasional important game against Ga Tech, N.C. State, or UNC.

Each event in a content driven model becomes the basis for pay. The more intriguing the game the more you make. Clemson and F.S.U. are intriguing.

In that kind of model Virginia Tech and Miami would be of interest as well. The only thing that ever made N.C. State or UNC of interest was the market model. In a content driven world it is the competitiveness of every game that pays dividends. Conferences will reshape if this does indeed become the dominant pay model and I believe strongly that it will be within a decade.

I appreciate the support.

I think adding the Texlahoma 4, Florida St and Clemson is a case of

14 + 4 + 2 = 28

Did you fail the third grade?
02-01-2018 10:26 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
There will NEVER be mega conferences, too many, mouths to feed, also too many teams to determine league champs. There are too many different interests, anything over 14 is unworkable.
But dream on if you want to.

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(This post was last modified: 02-01-2018 11:20 PM by Jjoey52.)
02-01-2018 11:19 PM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 11:19 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  There will NEVER be mega conferences, too many, mouths to feed, also too many teams to determine league champs. There are too many different interests, anything over 14 is unworkable.
But dream on if you want to.

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What makes 14 specifically the limit?
02-01-2018 11:37 PM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 11:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(02-01-2018 11:19 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  There will NEVER be mega conferences, too many, mouths to feed, also too many teams to determine league champs. There are too many different interests, anything over 14 is unworkable.
But dream on if you want to.

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What makes 14 specifically the limit?

Mike Slive was asked about the size of conferences while he was still the commissioner of the SEC. His reply was that the size of conferences is only limited by profitability.

So if you add schools that don't add much you can add more. If you add schools that add a lot, it's harder to find more that add to the bottom line.

Everyone wants a shot at Texas and Oklahoma because they are two top 7 revenue generators and represent 2 of only 3 schools that have a economic impact on their region that exceeds 1 Billion dollars. Expanding with either or both means that the receiving conference has expanded as efficiently as is likely possible with regards to profitability.
02-01-2018 11:45 PM
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What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 11:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(02-01-2018 11:19 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  There will NEVER be mega conferences, too many, mouths to feed, also too many teams to determine league champs. There are too many different interests, anything over 14 is unworkable.
But dream on if you want to.

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What makes 14 specifically the limit?


14 works, last time 16 was tried, it fell apart. Of corse, 16 could be tried again, but that would be the max.


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02-02-2018 12:56 AM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-02-2018 12:56 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(02-01-2018 11:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(02-01-2018 11:19 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  There will NEVER be mega conferences, too many, mouths to feed, also too many teams to determine league champs. There are too many different interests, anything over 14 is unworkable.
But dream on if you want to.

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What makes 14 specifically the limit?


14 works, last time 16 was tried, it fell apart. Of corse, 16 could be tried again, but that would be the max.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

16 was tried by the WAC and it was hardly geographically compact. You have to keep that in mind. Both the SEC and B1G are capable of having 16 and still staying fairly confined geographically.

What I don't buy is either of those two conferences trying to swoop awkwardly into another region. North Carolina and Virginia could certainly come into play but the SEC isn't going to take Pitt, Iowa State, or Kansas any more than the Big 10 is going to take Georgia Tech and Miami. We'll both stay geographically well defined.
02-02-2018 03:18 AM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 04:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I am of the opinion that the new media model we are going to see is going to be a content driven one, not a market driven one. With that said, controlling content is going to be critical, not just in terms of quantity but quality.

The Big Ten and SEC are by far the most valuable conferences due to the brands they possess. If either of these conferences were to deprive their competitors of their biggest brands as well as some of above average ones you create a market situation where not only does your market value sky rocket because you've augmented yourself with 2-3 elite programs but also, with the addition of some of above average ones, the quality of the rights that the SEC and/or the Big Ten is significantly higher than your rivals dues to the percentage of controlling share of the entire market you have in your inventory. Compare the difference in value between the SEC and an ACC whose best brands are Florida St, Clemson, VT, etc and an SEC who now controls those aforementioned brands and an ACC whose best brands are now Pitt, Syracuse, and BC. A larger set of content also opens the doors for a BTN2 and SECN2 channel as well as digital and streaming platform services that can further enrich the conference war chest.

With that said, I think both conferences would benefit from pursuing a conference model where they have 20 or 24 teams.

Thoughts?
The alien megastructure has a better chance of existing than your mega conferences have of coming into being. It's not happening guy.

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02-02-2018 08:04 AM
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RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
I think supply and demand, coupled with Benjamins will settle this issue. Without consumers nothing will work. 07-coffee3
02-02-2018 08:46 AM
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