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Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 04:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 04:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  how about by the transitive property- Chaminade is leading the Big East...
Chaminade beat Cal
Cal beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova

That's how Chaminade is leading the AAC -- Chaminade beat Cal who beat Stanford who beat ASU who beat Xavier who beat Cincinnati. One less transitive step, even.

Nova #1 team in country.... makes it even funnier.

If we are living our lives by the transitive property, Chaminade will be the #1 seed in March Madness. They might even raise a national championship banner and have a parade. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 02-07-2018 04:13 PM by Wedge.)
02-07-2018 04:13 PM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 04:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  how about by the transitive property- Chaminade is leading the Big East...
Chaminade beat Cal
Cal beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova

That's how Chaminade is leading the AAC -- Chaminade beat Cal who beat Stanford who beat ASU who beat Xavier who beat Cincinnati. One less transitive step, even.

I love that game. A decade ago, I came up with a formula of 1-26 NIT being the number one team. It took 15-20 teams to complete the train.
02-07-2018 04:21 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
found another #1 seed in March Madness... Concordia (Mn)
Virginia lost to West Virginia by 7
West Virginia lost to Iowa St by 16
Iowa St lost to Milwaukee by 18
Milwaukee lost to Concordia Mn by 14

so therefore, Concordia is better than Virginia by 55 points.
02-07-2018 04:24 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
got a pretty small train to connect KP #350 Mississippi Valley with #1 Villanova-
Ms Valley St beat Jackson St by 5
Jackson St beat Nebraska Omaha by 2
Nebraska Omaha beat Drake by 2
Drake beat Wake Forest by 3
Wake Forest beat Syracuse by 6
Syracuse beat Maryland by 2
Maryland beat Butler by 14
Butler beat Villanova by 8
therefore #350 Ms Valley St is 42 points better than #1 Nova
02-07-2018 04:29 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Also, Idaho wins the Transitive Property National Championship in their final year in FBS:

Alabama lost to Auburn who lost to LSU who lost to Troy who lost to South Alabama who lost to Idaho.
02-07-2018 04:42 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #26
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 04:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  found another #1 seed in March Madness... Concordia (Mn)
Virginia lost to West Virginia by 7
West Virginia lost to Iowa St by 16
Iowa St lost to Milwaukee by 18
Milwaukee lost to Concordia Mn by 14

so therefore, Concordia is better than Virginia by 55 points.

Arkansas Tech 86
Concordia-St Paul 67

You know who’s partying in the streets of Russelville...
02-07-2018 06:28 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 03:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Temple is still in it big time right now. Assuming they win these next 2 games(vs USF and ECU)- they're 15-10 with a really good SOS. 4-1 last 5 games and they're in- and would be favored in 2 of those last 5, and 2 of the other 3 they're basically 50/50 propositions. 19-11 and they're at a 28 RPI with a SOS of 14. Heck, 18-12 and they have a RPI of around 36. With wins over Clemson and Auburn included. Teams like that get in most every single time.

The quality wins speak for themselves with Temple. Their bad losses also speak for themselves, however.

If Temple is left out of this, and they don't pick up anymore really bad losses, there's going to be some committee members making exits out the back rather than wanting to take on the hard questions that come with such a snub.
02-07-2018 06:44 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 04:42 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Also, Idaho wins the Transitive Property National Championship in their final year in FBS:

Alabama lost to Auburn who lost to LSU who lost to Troy who lost to South Alabama who lost to Idaho.

LOL

And you can go further. Idaho lost to UNLV who lost to (FCS) Howard who lost to (FCS) Norfolk State who lost to (D2) Virginia State. From D2 to FBS champion in just 8 games. That's got to be a record.
(This post was last modified: 02-07-2018 06:59 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
02-07-2018 06:58 PM
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Nittany_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 06:58 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 04:42 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Also, Idaho wins the Transitive Property National Championship in their final year in FBS:

Alabama lost to Auburn who lost to LSU who lost to Troy who lost to South Alabama who lost to Idaho.

LOL

And you can go further. Idaho lost to UNLV who lost to (FCS) Howard who lost to (FCS) Norfolk State who lost to (D2) Virginia State. From D2 to FBS champion in just 8 games. That's got to be a record.

I think you missed a game in there. Howard beat Norfolk State in 2017. So the chain is actually 10 games: Virginia State > Norfolk State > NC Central > Howard > UNLV > Idaho > South Alabama > Troy > LSU > Auburn > Alabama

Going back to 2016, there's actually a chain that was one game LESS to connect the FBS champion to D2.

Western Oregon > Sacramento State > Montana State > Montana > Northern Iowa > Indiana State > Illinois State > Northwestern > Pittsburgh > Clemson

And in 2014 (2015 had an undefeated FBS champion), there was a FBS Champion to D2 chain that had one less game than 2016. In this case, it's a link between the FBS Champion and the D2 Champion, which is kind of cool:

Colorado State-Pueblo > Sam Houston State > Villanova > Liberty > Appalachian State > Louisiana-Monroe > Wake Forest > Virginia Tech > Ohio State

Good web-site for finding these chains is below:

http://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.co...6&method=2
(This post was last modified: 02-07-2018 10:37 PM by Nittany_Bearcat.)
02-07-2018 10:32 PM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  how about by the transitive property- Chaminade is leading the Big East...
Chaminade beat Cal
Cal beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova

UC Riverside beat Cal
Cal beat SDSU
SDSU beat Gonzaga
Gonzaga beat Texas
Texas beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova.

Highlander power at UCR.
02-07-2018 11:33 PM
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lew240z Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
In the early '70's, Southern Colorado State College beat Air Force who beat Oregon who be national champions UCLA.
02-08-2018 12:49 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #32
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Meant to post this in this thread:

WKU’s stub means Hilltoppers have to win AQ now. No one’s getting in with a 4-5 record against Tier 3 schools.

Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga
Rhode Island
Nevada
Boise
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State

is the new list, imo. SMC/GU/URI safely in. MTSU/NMSU have to win out until title games.
02-08-2018 01:02 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
At this point, in mid-February, if the bracket "consensus" has a team among the top 9 seeds, they're in unless they have a really bad run down the stretch, i.e. they probably have to lose at least 3 to be out.

If the "consensus" is that a team is 10 or 11, they're barely on the good side of the bubble. Realistically a team from a non-power conference, if they're not looking like a top-9 seed today, is either going to have to win their autobid or win pretty much every game before their conference tournament final. A team from a power conference that is projected on the bubble often has the chance to pick up a high-quality win among their remaining games to balance out a loss, but teams that don't have any remaining top-30 opponents will have their chances damaged more by any loss.
02-08-2018 02:05 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-08-2018 01:02 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Meant to post this in this thread:

WKU’s stub means Hilltoppers have to win AQ now. No one’s getting in with a 4-5 record against Tier 3 schools.

Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga
Rhode Island
Nevada
Boise
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State

is the new list, imo. SMC/GU/URI safely in. MTSU/NMSU have to win out until title games.
WKU doesn't have much margin for error but that neutral-site win against Purdue is a hell of an arrow in their quiver. Middle Tennessee has the better resume on paper but when humans digest it and go by whatever methods they choose, a win against a 1 or 2 seed will often carry outsize weight.

If WKU wins out the rest of the regular season except for a second loss to Middle Tennessee (a reasonable projection, though ODU and @UAB will be tricky), that gives them an RPI of 43 and the No. 2 seed in the CUSA tournament. If they get La. Tech in the 7-10 game and win, it goes up to 37 (as of now, of course, numbers will fluctuate until then). If that happens, a win over ODU gets them to 32; a loss, back to 43. Sub UAB in the semi and it becomes 35 win/46 loss. And if THAT happens, even a loss to Middle Tennessee in the final takes them to 33 (ODU semi win) or 35 (UAB).

In other words, if WKU wins all the games in which it should be favored and gets to the CUSA final against Middle Tennessee, they're going to be in pretty good shape even with a loss there. Obviously if they win out the regular season, including a win against Middle Tennessee, their case gets a lot better. And one more non-MTSU loss (or quarterfinal tournament flameout) probably does cripple them. But there's a reasonable case for WKU to get an at-large bid — with a neutral-site win against Purdue its possible ace in the hole.
02-08-2018 02:25 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-08-2018 02:05 PM)Wedge Wrote:  At this point, in mid-February, if the bracket "consensus" has a team among the top 9 seeds, they're in unless they have a really bad run down the stretch, i.e. they probably have to lose at least 3 to be out.

If the "consensus" is that a team is 10 or 11, they're barely on the good side of the bubble. Realistically a team from a non-power conference, if they're not looking like a top-9 seed today, is either going to have to win their autobid or win pretty much every game before their conference tournament final. A team from a power conference that is projected on the bubble often has the chance to pick up a high-quality win among their remaining games to balance out a loss, but teams that don't have any remaining top-30 opponents will have their chances damaged more by any loss.

I'd say it's closer to 8. A 9 seed right now could be as low as 36, and only like about 8-10 spots away from the cut line(and really could be as few as about 6 spots). That's hardly really comfortable. And there's still a lot of big games late that can make a huge difference from the teams in the 10-11 range.
02-08-2018 02:56 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-08-2018 02:25 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  In other words, if WKU wins all the games in which it should be favored and gets to the CUSA final against Middle Tennessee, they're going to be in pretty good shape even with a loss there. Obviously if they win out the regular season, including a win against Middle Tennessee, their case gets a lot better. And one more non-MTSU loss (or quarterfinal tournament flameout) probably does cripple them. But there's a reasonable case for WKU to get an at-large bid — with a neutral-site win against Purdue its possible ace in the hole.

Assuming Purdue finishes strong and doesn't trip up in the upcoming weeks, it would help WKU. But, I think the loss at UTSA puts them at AQ or bust now. SMU is probably not a tournament team, and can't help WKU. There's good losses, and some potential NCAAT teams on the schedule from MVC (Mo State), OVC (Belmont), and Horizon (Wright State), but I don't see the Purdue win outshining it all. There's losses to Ohio and Wisky. Granted, the team wasn't 100% then; those sting. 4-5 vs. Group 3...not helping.
02-09-2018 05:04 AM
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jdgaucho Offline
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RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Boise lost at Utah State. that hurts
02-11-2018 11:03 AM
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RandomFan Offline
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RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
I think Nevada is pretty safe after beating Boise last night. They did lose their starting PG to a torn Achilles though. Boise probably needs the AQ now.

NMSU fell @ Utah Valley tonight.
02-15-2018 11:26 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #39
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Gonzaga
Saint Mary’s
Rhode Island
Nevada
Middle Tennessee

I think everyone else will have to win the autobid.
02-15-2018 11:35 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
NMSU was probably always AQ or else, but, now that's a bit more settled after last night.

SMC botched one last night, too, in San Fran. I'd be worried. Maybe not as worried if Temple had pulled the upset in Wichita, but, it was a good night for Houston...if they weren't a certainty before, they are now; in at someone else's expense. I would hate seeing SMC sitting this out again for someone like Nebraska or Penn State...some programs are just not allowed a night off in their conference.

St. Bonaventure is starting to show up again. Big one tonight for them.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 05:41 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
02-16-2018 05:34 AM
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