(02-06-2018 04:58 PM)ken d Wrote: At the end of the day, the one who is paying the bills gets the biggest say. What does ESPN want?
Priority #1 for ESPN would be to have arguably the top economic impact school not yet lassoed clearly in one of their holding pens.
Once they are assured that they have the Texas product then their ancillary concerns might be addressed.
Where does Texas do the most good? ACC
Where does Texas make the most money for them? SEC
Would the SEC be well satisfied with Oklahoma? Yes
Would Oklahoma in the SEC destabilize the ACC by increasing the revenue gap? Yes
Would Texas in the ACC offset and compliment Oklahoma's addition to the SEC? Yes
How do we get them there? You are going to have to allow Texas essentially to anchor a new division of the ACC.
Is that doable? Yes. Baylor, Houston/Rice, T.C.U. and one other in a 20 team ACC gives Texas their own division with at least 3 other Texas schools.
Will that fly with the ACC? It has been rumored not to have flown with North Carolina in 2010-1 when Deloss was looking because UNC apparently didn't want to lose voting control over "their" conference.
I strongly suggest that the biggest thing that has stood in the way of the ACCN having been reality two years ago and the ACC having closed the revenue gap was North Carolina's inability to grow the conference dynamically out of fear of losing control.
There are two ways to get Texas to consider the ACC. One was the oft rumored swap of Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC in 2010-1 to make room for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Notre Dame way back then. That one is probably dead and buried.
But if ESPN truly wanted to nail down the product of the Big 12 prior to the end of the GOR when other interested parties could bid up the buying price they could simply expand the ACC and SEC to 20 schools each absorb the Big 12 between the two of them and pay them both amounts that secured the product against Big 10 revenue growth and then the Mouse would own 8 of the top 10 revenue producers and 15 of the top 25 between the two conferences. And with that boost in revenue some of the ACC and SEC schools would be filling some of those 10 spots in the top 25 that they currently don't occupy.
What I don't see happening is Texas taking an independent deal because it hurts their minor sports with insane travel expenses. Create a division for them and it becomes doable.
Otherwise the cheapest and most efficient play for ESPN is to take Texa-homa to the SEC. The minor sports play near home, play old rivals and current ones too, and the investment in securing that property is much less.
However if it is content they want, why not take all 10 and arrange them in a reasonable fashion between the two conferences.
In another thread I suggested: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State and West Virginia to the SEC. If we get paid to take them nobody would gripe much, especially since 5 of them would be in their own division.
I suggested that the ACC take Texas, Baylor, Houston, and T.C.U. along with Kansas State and N.D. all in (which for 50 million in TV revenue seems reasonable). That puts the ACCN in all of the top cities in Texas picks up the Kansas market and gives Texas their home division to play.
Nothing solves the voting issue in the ACC however. U.N.C. can count on the three other Carolina schools, Virginia and probably Virginia Tech. They once counted on Clemson but the Tigers might vote with the football first schools if Texas and Notre Dame were all in. N.D. would have some support from the Old Big East schools. Texas could count on the 4 buddies they would bring. Then in a 20 school conference 6 votes doesn't block something U.N.C. disagrees with and 6 votes doesn't pass what they want. So there would be 4 factions:
Notre Dame: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College
Texas: Baylor, T.C.U., Houston/Rice, and another, perhaps Kansas State
Core: Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Va Tech
Football First: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Floater: Louisville
So the very parts of the assembled Frankenstein have to work in concert if they are going to grow and thrive. But between U.N.C., Texas, Notre Dame and the growing swagger of the Clemson/F.S.U. faction there is way too much ego to control long enough to grow what is needed.
This ultimately will be ESPN's mess to handle. It is why I suggested paying the ACC slightly above their product value if they grew to 20. 50 million per school would probably be enough to pacify all parties and have a truce of greed long enough to pull it off.
Otherwise Occam's Razor says Texa-homa gives ESPN 80% of the total value of the Big 12 with a lot less headache and that the SEC would be the best possible place to capitalize off of that investment and the most likely ESPN held property strong enough to endure it.