(02-28-2018 01:42 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 01:36 PM)appst89 Wrote:  Because you dims are just so much smarter than everyone else, right?

Attitudes like yours are a large part of the reason Trump won. It's pretty obvious you still haven't recognized that, and I hope you never do.

Many liberals are arrogant and entitled and seriously believe they have the right, not to argue with us, but to drive us out of the public square and out of existence.

As you said, I hope they keep at it.

We've figured out a path forward that doesn't include the Cernovichian dynamic. Its impossible to reach people who just are going to discount any view that doesn't confirm their existing views. Science says X, Trumpers say Y. CNN is fake news, but Infowars and Gateway Pundit are to be believed. Either way, you got your 43 percent last time as a high water mark, and that isn't going to be enough even if demographics wasn't working against your side bigly.

BTW, it is absolutely true that higher educated districts (defined as percentage with college degrees) vote in greater percentages against Trumpists. Its not like Trumpers don't routinely dismiss science, medicine, fact based reporting, etc. anyway. Why be upset if people are buying what the Trumpers are selling (opposition to empirically derived science and academic research in policy). Of course, those with more training in academic matters are going to be more likely to scoff at the GOP's plan.

Also please note, Trump's bump from the tax bill appears to have stalled and started to reverse in every poll except Rasmussen. He got half of the people that voted for him in 2016 back that left him in 2017 as a result. He has added virtually no one to his support base. His electoral college victory was a 1 in a 100 shot that went in the bucket. But demographics, combined with Trump's offensive behavior as President has just moved that basket back another 50 feet or more for next time.

(02-28-2018 02:28 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 01:42 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 01:36 PM)appst89 Wrote:  Because you dims are just so much smarter than everyone else, right?

Attitudes like yours are a large part of the reason Trump won. It's pretty obvious you still haven't recognized that, and I hope you never do.

Many liberals are arrogant and entitled and seriously believe they have the right, not to argue with us, but to drive us out of the public square and out of existence.

As you said, I hope they keep at it.

We've figured out a path forward that doesn't include the Cernovichian dynamic. Its impossible to reach people who just are going to discount any view that doesn't confirm their existing views. Science says X, Trumpers say Y. CNN is fake news, but Infowars and Gateway Pundit are to be believed. Either way, you got your 43 percent last time as a high water mark, and that isn't going to be enough even if demographics wasn't working against your side bigly.

BTW, it is absolutely true that higher educated districts (defined as percentage with college degrees) vote in greater percentages against Trumpists. Its not like Trumpers don't routinely dismiss science, medicine, fact based reporting, etc. anyway. Why be upset if people are buying what the Trumpers are selling (opposition to empirically derived science and academic research in policy). Of course, those with more training in academic matters are going to be more likely to scoff at the GOP's plan.

Also please note, Trump's bump from the tax bill appears to have stalled and started to reverse in every poll except Rasmussen. He got half of the people that voted for him in 2016 back that left him in 2017 as a result. He has added virtually no one to his support base. His electoral college victory was a 1 in a 100 shot that went in the bucket. But demographics, combined with Trump's offensive behavior as President has just moved that basket back another 50 feet or more for next time.

As I said, I hope you never figure out why you lost.

And in the meantime, I'll go back and look at your accuracy in predicting things up to this point and just chuckle.

(02-28-2018 02:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Now lets move on to the Special election in South Carolina's 5th Congressional District. 70 percent white. Largely rural. Voted for Trump by 20 percent. The GOP candidate did win....by 3%. GOP margin -17%

Parnell was able to garner a lot of votes because he was considered a political outsider (he wasn't. He's a swamp creature having worked for both the DOJ and the House Ways and Means committee in the past) He's already announced a run in 2018, let's see if he can pull off the political outsider con job in his second campaign in less than a year, and do it this time without distancing himself from the DNC like he did in the special election campaign. Using the embarrassment that is James Clyburn in your announcement video is certainly not going to help in the 5th.

Quote:HD 84, Trump by 34%, GOP won by 20%. GOP margin -14%

A race between two political outsiders.

Quote:HD 48 Trump by 25%. GOP won by 20%. GOP margin -5%

Fairly unremarkable retired Sheriff beats a political newcomer that distanced herself from the DNC.

Quote:HD 70 Clinton by 33%. Dems won by 57%. GOP margin -24%

A Black woman wins a district that is 61% black by 57%. Against a white man? Oh and she was from the portion of the district that has the majority of the population? I'm shocked! Shocked I tell you!

Quote:HD 31 Clinton by 48% Dems won it by 83% GOP margin -35%

A dim wins an election against a RINO. Myers angered what little base he had in the district when he started talking about expanding Medicare. He garnered exactly 109 votes.

Quote:HD 99 Trump by 23% GOP won by 13% GOP margin -10%

Y'all lost your shot at this district because Nancy Mace is going to be a thorn in the dim's side for a long, long time. It might start in Columbia but when it's said and done she'll be in DC. First female Cadet to graduate from The Citadel, successful businesswoman, and one of the most driven individuals I've ever personally met. Her opponent is yet another dim who distanced themselves from the DNC. Seems to be a good strategy in SC.

(02-28-2018 02:28 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Its impossible to reach people who just are going to discount any view that doesn't confirm their existing views.

It might be stereotypical to think that you, a gay liberal white male activist who supports liberal causes and gets all his news, opinion and science from far-left media and whom almost certainly doesn't have any close Trump friends wouldn't confirm any of your own biases, nosiree, but I'm just a science denying Trump voter what do I know?

(02-28-2018 03:35 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 02:28 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Its impossible to reach people who just are going to discount any view that doesn't confirm their existing views.

It might be stereotypical to think that you, a gay liberal white male activist who supports liberal causes and gets all his news, opinion and science from far-left media and whom almost certainly doesn't have any close Trump friends wouldn't confirm any of your own biases, nosiree, but I'm just a science denying Trump voter what do I know?

You'd be wrong. I'm from Alabama. I'm 'white'. 75% of white Alabamians are Trumpers. I think I understand the dynamic more than you think.

The vulgarity of Trump plays a part in our opposition to him, but its basically a revulsion at his policies too.

Again, the Trumpers have spend 2 years now ignoring empirical science on the big stage (since Trump announced). It should surprise no one that educated Americans largely reject a movement that rejects them.

You can't build your movement around opposition to facts and science and then be surprised and offended when people who support fact based empirically driven policy and fact based analysis reject your movement.

Again, percentage of voters with a college degree is starting to become a very important predictor of Democratic voting likelihood.

(02-28-2018 03:08 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 02:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Now lets move on to the Special election in South Carolina's 5th Congressional District. 70 percent white. Largely rural. Voted for Trump by 20 percent. The GOP candidate did win....by 3%. GOP margin -17%

Parnell was able to garner a lot of votes because he was considered a political outsider (he wasn't. He's a swamp creature having worked for both the DOJ and the House Ways and Means committee in the past) He's already announced a run in 2018, let's see if he can pull off the political outsider con job in his second campaign in less than a year, and do it this time without distancing himself from the DNC like he did in the special election campaign. Using the embarrassment that is James Clyburn in your announcement video is certainly not going to help in the 5th.

Quote:HD 84, Trump by 34%, GOP won by 20%. GOP margin -14%

A race between two political outsiders.

Quote:HD 48 Trump by 25%. GOP won by 20%. GOP margin -5%

Fairly unremarkable retired Sheriff beats a political newcomer that distanced herself from the DNC.

Quote:HD 70 Clinton by 33%. Dems won by 57%. GOP margin -24%

A Black woman wins a district that is 61% black by 57%. Against a white man? Oh and she was from the portion of the district that has the majority of the population? I'm shocked! Shocked I tell you!

Quote:HD 31 Clinton by 48% Dems won it by 83% GOP margin -35%

A dim wins an election against a RINO. Myers angered what little base he had in the district when he started talking about expanding Medicare. He garnered exactly 109 votes.

Quote:HD 99 Trump by 23% GOP won by 13% GOP margin -10%

Y'all lost your shot at this district because Nancy Mace is going to be a thorn in the dim's side for a long, long time. It might start in Columbia but when it's said and done she'll be in DC. First female Cadet to graduate from The Citadel, successful businesswoman, and one of the most driven individuals I've ever personally met. Her opponent is yet another dim who distanced themselves from the DNC. Seems to be a good strategy in SC.

Again, every race is going away from you. Every. Single. Last. One. And most of your candidates have been actually good recruits (from a political, if not a policy perspective).

Its a shame that a beneficiary of the left would roll over on the group that paved the way for her to attend the Citadel. I remember the Cernovichian "Save the Males" fight over The Citidel when it went down (most of my SC family are Citadel grads). But that school is a really really, REALLY, right wing place anyway. I suppose you do the right thing even knowing that it won't be appreciated sometimes.

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  You'd be wrong. I'm from Alabama. I'm 'white'. 75% of white Alabamians are Trumpers. I think I understand the dynamic more than you think.

And yet, at least on this board, you work as hard as you can to belittle Trump supporters as little more than illiterate bumpkins. You make no attempt to understand our voting rational, have no respect for our rights, our cultural mores, nor any of what we define as our priorities. We're just, wrong.

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The vulgarity of Trump plays a part in our opposition to him, but its basically a revulsion at his policies too.

We've learned our vulgarity from the liberal culture we all live in. Besides, you’ll form a better picture of President Trump if you focus on what he does, as opposed to what people like you say about him. Trump isn’t crazy, but he sure drives you crazy and you must get beyond that......

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, the Trumpers have spend 2 years now ignoring empirical science on the big stage (since Trump announced). It should surprise no one that educated Americans largely reject a movement that rejects them.

Here's some science: illegal immigration is down, the economy is growing and the tax breaks are working.

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, percentage of voters with a college degree is starting to become a very important predictor of Democratic voting likelihood.

Run with that like it's Hilary 2016.

(02-28-2018 04:19 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  You'd be wrong. I'm from Alabama. I'm 'white'. 75% of white Alabamians are Trumpers. I think I understand the dynamic more than you think.

And yet, at least on this board, you work as hard as you can to belittle Trump supporters as little more than illiterate bumpkins. You make no attempt to understand our voting rational, have no respect for our rights, our cultural mores, nor any of what we define as our priorities. We're just, wrong.

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The vulgarity of Trump plays a part in our opposition to him, but its basically a revulsion at his policies too.

We've learned our vulgarity from the liberal culture we all live in. Besides, you’ll form a better picture of President Trump if you focus on what he does, as opposed to what people like you say about him. Trump isn’t crazy, but he sure drives you crazy and you must get beyond that......

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, the Trumpers have spend 2 years now ignoring empirical science on the big stage (since Trump announced). It should surprise no one that educated Americans largely reject a movement that rejects them.

Here's some science: illegal immigration is down, the economy is growing and the tax breaks are working.

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, percentage of voters with a college degree is starting to become a very important predictor of Democratic voting likelihood.

Run with that like it's Hilary 2016.

LOL. If your values are to discriminate against everyone who isn't a white, male, cis, Christian from a supremacist perspective (which is basically Trumpism)...then we're not going to have much respect for your values. Vote however you want. We will never respect Cernovichian values or racist/homophobic/transphobic/misogynistic values.

The problem with many Trumpers is that they don't get it. They think that they own this country. Its for white cis straight Christian males to decide what is 'good enough' for everyone else. They should have 100 percent control over all decisions and its up to them to unilaterally decide whats 'good enough' for those who aren't. And you can overheat the economy as much as you want....you're going to continue to have serious problems connecting with minorities unless you change the supremacist dynamic in this country.

And if you'd like your movement to stop Trump supporters being characterized (successfully btw) as being comprised of a group of poorly educated white straight males who cannot or will not employ logic and reason to this Administration and the GOP's policies and statements, then yea, you're going to take a reputation hit for it.

Getting 43 percent on the national vote and then acting like you won 80 percent of the vote isn't working for you guys.

(02-28-2018 04:36 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  If your values are to discriminate against everyone who isn't a white, male, cis, Christian from a supremacist perspective (which is basically Trumpism)...then we're not going to have much respect for your values. Vote however you want. We will never respect Cernovichian values or racist/homophobic/transphobic/misogynistic values.

Aaaaaaaaaaaand there it is.

(02-28-2018 11:03 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-27-2018 11:49 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Quote:The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

By comparison, President Obama earned 43% approval on this date in the second year of his presidency

Trump 50%
Obama 43%


lol...

There are a lot of other polls showing Trumps approval numbers sinking again. Rasmussen is kind of the outlier. But hey, there are actual data points rather than polls to look at as well. They're called special elections.

Out in the real world, there were 3 special elections last night. Lets recap

1) NH - State House (R defending seat). Trump won the district by 12 points. The Dem took it by 9 last night

2) CT - State House (R defending seat). Trump won it by 13. The Dems took the seat last night by 2 percent. This district hadn't been won by a Democrat in 44 years.

3) KY - State House (R defending seat). Trump won it by 70 points. The Dem lost, but gained 20 points on Trumps performance in 2016. Fun fact, the majority of this district is in a county that has never voted for a Democrat for President ever (even during the Depression).

Basically, the election results are showing a consistent 20 point swing to the Dems in special elections. I imagine that the real swing will be closer to 10 percent in the midterms (basically midterms have a lesser 'enthusiasm gap' than special elections).

You're also seeing massive turnout increases for the Dems as well. I'm not really worried about Rasmussen's outlier poll. You're free to cling to it if it makes you feel better.

lol... i'm clinging to the net 1,042-seat gain during Obama's 8 years.

I think the Dems have just a bit more to go to get that evened out.

(02-28-2018 04:36 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:19 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  You'd be wrong. I'm from Alabama. I'm 'white'. 75% of white Alabamians are Trumpers. I think I understand the dynamic more than you think.

And yet, at least on this board, you work as hard as you can to belittle Trump supporters as little more than illiterate bumpkins. You make no attempt to understand our voting rational, have no respect for our rights, our cultural mores, nor any of what we define as our priorities. We're just, wrong.

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The vulgarity of Trump plays a part in our opposition to him, but its basically a revulsion at his policies too.

We've learned our vulgarity from the liberal culture we all live in. Besides, you’ll form a better picture of President Trump if you focus on what he does, as opposed to what people like you say about him. Trump isn’t crazy, but he sure drives you crazy and you must get beyond that......

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, the Trumpers have spend 2 years now ignoring empirical science on the big stage (since Trump announced). It should surprise no one that educated Americans largely reject a movement that rejects them.

Here's some science: illegal immigration is down, the economy is growing and the tax breaks are working.

(02-28-2018 04:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, percentage of voters with a college degree is starting to become a very important predictor of Democratic voting likelihood.

Run with that like it's Hilary 2016.

LOL. If your values are to discriminate against everyone who isn't a white, male, cis, Christian from a supremacist perspective (which is basically Trumpism)...then we're not going to have much respect for your values. Vote however you want. We will never respect Cernovichian values or racist/homophobic/transphobic/misogynistic values.

The problem with many Trumpers is that they don't get it. They think that they own this country. Its for white cis straight Christian males to decide what is 'good enough' for everyone else. They should have 100 percent control over all decisions and its up to them to unilaterally decide whats 'good enough' for those who aren't. And you can overheat the economy as much as you want....you're going to continue to have serious problems connecting with minorities unless you change the supremacist dynamic in this country.

And if you'd like your movement to stop Trump supporters being characterized (successfully btw) as being comprised of a group of poorly educated white straight males who cannot or will not employ logic and reason to this Administration and the GOP's policies and statements, then yea, you're going to take a reputation hit for it.

Getting 43 percent on the national vote and then acting like you won 80 percent of the vote isn't working for you guys.

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using CSNbbs mobile app

(02-28-2018 04:41 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:36 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  If your values are to discriminate against everyone who isn't a white, male, cis, Christian from a supremacist perspective (which is basically Trumpism)...then we're not going to have much respect for your values. Vote however you want. We will never respect Cernovichian values or racist/homophobic/transphobic/misogynistic values.

Aaaaaaaaaaaand there it is.

lol, wtf are "Cernovichian values"?

These values?

It must be eating tom up that someone more educated and well spoken, with a larger reach, is taking his main wedge issue away from him.

Quote:A Night For Freedom, a growing crusade developed by internet sensation Mike Cernovich, is one of these movements. I was privileged to attend a recent event in Washington, D.C. over the weekend, after attending CPAC.

The first thing that impressed me was the class, and yes, the diversity, of the attendees. These were well-dressed people, from all walks of life, talking big ideas. Many flew in from the far-flung regions of America to attend. There were whites, blacks, and Latinos, young and old, Christians, atheists, and yes, Muslims. No one seemed to care about your race, ethnicity, religion, or economic status; what people did care about was your love for America and your views on how to stop the Marxist sickness infecting the country.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201...-big-tent/

(02-28-2018 07:39 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:41 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:36 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  If your values are to discriminate against everyone who isn't a white, male, cis, Christian from a supremacist perspective (which is basically Trumpism)...then we're not going to have much respect for your values. Vote however you want. We will never respect Cernovichian values or racist/homophobic/transphobic/misogynistic values.

Aaaaaaaaaaaand there it is.

lol, wtf are "Cernovichian values"?

Basically the manosphere movement. Basically whatever a caricature of a 'he man' wants, is supreme in society.

(02-28-2018 08:52 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 07:39 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:41 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:36 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  If your values are to discriminate against everyone who isn't a white, male, cis, Christian from a supremacist perspective (which is basically Trumpism)...then we're not going to have much respect for your values. Vote however you want. We will never respect Cernovichian values or racist/homophobic/transphobic/misogynistic values.

Aaaaaaaaaaaand there it is.

lol, wtf are "Cernovichian values"?

Basically the manosphere movement. Basically whatever a caricature of a 'he man' wants, is supreme in society.

LOL, you need a better face for whatever that movement is, because that certainly isn't Cernovich. Perhaps 10 years ago.

Even if it was, that would still be better than the soylent grin nu-male, if I cry, that means I'm right and you have to do what I say-way of doing things.

BTW, I did look up the Rasmussen Poll.

It turns out that virtually no one refers to their polling much because

1) Rasmussen uses a combination of online surveys and landline automated surveys
2) Rasmussen uses a proprietary set of internals that they don't release. They do admit that they weight the data, but don't say how they're weighting the data

Basically RCP (which is right leaning as well) uses it in their average. No one else pays attention to it.

The Washington Post did a long analysis of the data to try to back into their polling. Its a pretty good read https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/poli...6defa6e247

I think the Rasmussen Poll isn't completely worthless, as it does appear to track well with Republican support for Trump (as far as direction goes). But other, more transparent polls are showing that as well.

What Rasmussen appears to not do well is sample Democrats and Independents.

Basically if older white Republicans are showing up in very large percentages as voters, then you'd look at the Rasmussen outlier poll to get the predicted result. But that hasn't been happening in the special elections (actually if anything, its been lower than the historical average, not higher).

---

Either way its an interesting read.

Most (or 2nd most, depending on how you look at it) accurate poll in 2016.

(02-28-2018 04:41 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 04:36 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  If your values are to discriminate against everyone who isn't a white, male, cis, Christian from a supremacist perspective (which is basically Trumpism)...then we're not going to have much respect for your values. Vote however you want. We will never respect Cernovichian values or racist/homophobic/transphobic/misogynistic values.

Aaaaaaaaaaaand there it is.

Lol

(02-28-2018 09:43 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Most (or 2nd most, depending on how you look at it) accurate poll in 2016.

Rasmussen always pegs the GOP at the highest level. One election, the stopped watch got it right. Basically the GOP wrung out their 100 percent level (which was 43 percent of the electorate).

In normal elections, they're usually really bad. And in a wave Democratic election, you'll see their numbers be really out of whack. Although, since they don't release their internals, they can try and manually get rid of their bias two days before the election to retain what little credibility they have.

(02-28-2018 02:28 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 01:42 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 01:36 PM)appst89 Wrote:  Because you dims are just so much smarter than everyone else, right?

Attitudes like yours are a large part of the reason Trump won. It's pretty obvious you still haven't recognized that, and I hope you never do.

Many liberals are arrogant and entitled and seriously believe they have the right, not to argue with us, but to drive us out of the public square and out of existence.

As you said, I hope they keep at it.

We've figured out a path forward that doesn't include the Cernovichian dynamic. Its impossible to reach people who just are going to discount any view that doesn't confirm their existing views. Science says X, Trumpers say Y. CNN is fake news, but Infowars and Gateway Pundit are to be believed. Either way, you got your 43 percent last time as a high water mark, and that isn't going to be enough even if demographics wasn't working against your side bigly.

BTW, it is absolutely true that higher educated districts (defined as percentage with college degrees) vote in greater percentages against Trumpists. Its not like Trumpers don't routinely dismiss science, medicine, fact based reporting, etc. anyway. Why be upset if people are buying what the Trumpers are selling (opposition to empirically derived science and academic research in policy). Of course, those with more training in academic matters are going to be more likely to scoff at the GOP's plan.

Also please note, Trump's bump from the tax bill appears to have stalled and started to reverse in every poll except Rasmussen. He got half of the people that voted for him in 2016 back that left him in 2017 as a result. He has added virtually no one to his support base. His electoral college victory was a 1 in a 100 shot that went in the bucket. But demographics, combined with Trump's offensive behavior as President has just moved that basket back another 50 feet or more for next time.

I heart your continued “predictions”.

You’ve gotten so many correct so far.

A State house seat in Connecticut... lol.

IF, and that’s a massive if, the dims retake the House (no shot at the Senate), I hope like hell FranSicko Nan and party leader Maxine launch impeachment proceedings.

That schitshow would have folks voting R for the next 20 yrs.

Too.... freaking.... funny