Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Michigan State: NCAA tourney
Author Message
Captain Bearcat Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,310
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 190
I Root For: UC
Location: Normal, IL & Cincy
Post: #1
Michigan State: NCAA tourney
Michigan State will present a dilemma for the NCAA tournament committee.

Positive: they're going to win the Big 10 regular season title. They're 28-3, with the only losses coming to top-30 RPI teams (Duke on neutral court, @Ohio State, Michigan). They pass the eye test for a #2, maybe even a #1 seed.

Negative: They only have 3 Quadrant 1 victories (top-30 home, top-50 neutral court, top-75 away count as Quadrant 1) They only have 5 Quadrant 2 wins (31-75 home, neutral 51-100, road 76-135).

In other words, they have fewer Quadrant 1 wins AND fewer Quadrant 2 wins than most 5 seeds will have.

The RPI does not like the Big 10 this year: according to RPI, MSU's schedule is considerably easier than Rhode Island, Nevada, Buffalo, WKU, or Middle Tennessee. This is despite a decent nonconference slate for MSU that included Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, UConn, and Depaul.
03-02-2018 10:21 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 30,466
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 284
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
Would have 2 more Quadrant 1 wins this week. That would give them 5. That's not too far behind a team like a Xavier who has 6 right now- and has a chance for 2 more.
03-02-2018 10:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Captain Bearcat Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,310
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 190
I Root For: UC
Location: Normal, IL & Cincy
Post: #3
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
(03-02-2018 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Would have 2 more Quadrant 1 wins this week. That would give them 5. That's not too far behind a team like a Xavier who has 6 right now- and has a chance for 2 more.

What 2 are those?
Tonight they play Wisconsin (111) - not Quadrant 1

If they win, they play either Nebraska (52, not Quadrant 1) or Michigan

If they win, they play either Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, or Rutgers. Penn State and Rutgers wouldn't be Quadrant 1 (but it probably won't be them).

So they'd have to win out AND play the right opponents to get two more Quad 1 victories.
03-02-2018 10:49 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Captain Bearcat Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,310
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 190
I Root For: UC
Location: Normal, IL & Cincy
Post: #4
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
As of right now, the 3 seeds projected by Lunardi:

Cincinnati: 5 Q1, 8 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)
Wichita: 5 Q1, 10 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)
Auburn: 7 Q1, 4 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q2)
Tennessee: 5 Q1, 7 Q2 (plus conference tourney)

The 5 seeds:
Michigan: 4 Q1, 4 Q2 (plus last conference tourney)
Kentucky: 3 Q1, 8 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)
Gonzaga: 3 Q1, 3 Q2 (plus conference tourney)
Clemson: 4 Q1, 7 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)
03-02-2018 11:05 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 30,466
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 284
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
(03-02-2018 10:49 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-02-2018 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Would have 2 more Quadrant 1 wins this week. That would give them 5. That's not too far behind a team like a Xavier who has 6 right now- and has a chance for 2 more.

What 2 are those?
Tonight they play Wisconsin (111) - not Quadrant 1

If they win, they play either Nebraska (52, not Quadrant 1) or Michigan

If they win, they play either Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, or Rutgers. Penn State and Rutgers wouldn't be Quadrant 1 (but it probably won't be them).

So they'd have to win out AND play the right opponents to get two more Quad 1 victories.

Nebraska with a win today would definitely be a Q1 game.

If Penn St beats both Purdue and Ohio St- they could potentially get into the top 50. Just today beating Ohio St would have their RPI up by 14 spots from 81 to 67. So very possible if not likely that Penn St would be a tier 1 game. But even if they don't get into the top 50- it would be another tier 2 win, plus it would elevate their home Penn St win to tier 2 from 3. So instead of 3 and 5 it would be 4 and 7.
03-02-2018 11:14 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

ken d Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 8,956
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 362
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
Post: #6
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
(03-02-2018 10:21 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Michigan State will present a dilemma for the NCAA tournament committee.

Positive: they're going to win the Big 10 regular season title. They're 28-3, with the only losses coming to top-30 RPI teams (Duke on neutral court, @Ohio State, Michigan). They pass the eye test for a #2, maybe even a #1 seed.

Negative: They only have 3 Quadrant 1 victories (top-30 home, top-50 neutral court, top-75 away count as Quadrant 1) They only have 5 Quadrant 2 wins (31-75 home, neutral 51-100, road 76-135).

In other words, they have fewer Quadrant 1 wins AND fewer Quadrant 2 wins than most 5 seeds will have.

The RPI does not like the Big 10 this year: according to RPI, MSU's schedule is considerably easier than Rhode Island, Nevada, Buffalo, WKU, or Middle Tennessee. This is despite a decent nonconference slate for MSU that included Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, UConn, and Depaul.

If the dilemma persists through the end of regular season, then the committee will simply abandon the metrics and say we think MSU deserves a 1 or 2 seed. At the end of the day, they will follow the metrics only when they support their personal "eye test".
03-02-2018 12:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wedge Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 13,744
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 441
I Root For: California
Location: Bear Territory
Post: #7
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
(03-02-2018 12:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  If the dilemma persists through the end of regular season, then the committee will simply abandon the metrics and say we think MSU deserves a 1 or 2 seed. At the end of the day, they will follow the metrics only when they support their personal "eye test".

Also known as the "name on the front of the jersey" test.

If this was the resume of, say, Rhode Island, the committee would punish them for the weaknesses in their resume and downplay their strengths.
03-02-2018 12:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 30,466
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 284
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #8
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
Xavier and Michigan St would be a fascinating way of looking at how the committee looks at things....
The committee now sees 6 ratings....... RPI, KPI, SOR (resume ranks) BPI, KP, Sag (predictive ranks)
Xavier has in resume ranks 3/4/2- so average of 3. but in predictive ranks 13/14/11- average of 12.7. Total average of 7.8
Michigan St has in resume ranks 14/13/4- so average of 10.3. But in predictive ranks 6/6/4- so average of 5.3. Total average also 7.8

How does the committee rank those 2 will be interesting to say the least.
03-02-2018 01:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Captain Bearcat Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,310
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 190
I Root For: UC
Location: Normal, IL & Cincy
Post: #9
RE: Michigan State: NCAA tourney
Michigan State loses to Michigan in the Big 10 tourney semifinals.

So they're stuck at 3 Q1 wins and 5 Q2 wins (pending RPI changes in the next week).
03-03-2018 10:21 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2018 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2018 MyBB Group.