https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ita...spartandhp

A Populist party and the openly anti-immigrant Northern League garnered about 50% of the vote in Italy's elections. Other right and center right parties also got significant votes.

imo Trump, Brexit and stuff like this are the final stands before the one world government comes to power.

Some major crisis in the VERY near future will usher them into power, but this is our last gasp and stand before that day comes.

The only thing that is surprising about this is that people are surprised.

Italy's economy has been badly damaged by their involvement in the Euro experiment.

You add to that fact the unchecked migrant crisis with an economically weak landing pad in Italy and you have everything you need for a populist takeover.

(03-05-2018 12:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ita...spartandhp

A Populist party and the openly anti-immigrant Northern League garnered about 50% of the vote in Italy's elections. Other right and center right parties also got significant votes.

Italy is a disaster. Many young and educated Italians leave for Madrid, Paris, Amsterdam, or Germany as soon as they can. Basically, unless you have connections, you can't really get a good job. Promotions are usually done on seniority - not by merit. Educated and talented Italians, of which there are many have been voting with their feet for decades. This isn't the result of any one party or movement. The right wing under Burlesconi was a disaster too.

Its also damn near ungovernable too. Good luck cobbling together a government there. Here's the latest results

Far right/Extreme Nationalist - 32 percent
Center right/largely pro-EU - 37 percent (several parties - not all of them are Burlesconi)
Center left - 23 percent
Far left/Other - 8 percent

As with all things European, you really have to be careful about trying to view their politics through an American political lens. People vote strategically. Either way, Italy - which has its agriculture propped up significantly by EU subsidies ,would be idiotic to leave.

You'd probably see most of the Center right parties as to the left of the Democratic party in the USA

(03-05-2018 09:49 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The only thing that is surprising about this is that people are surprised.

Italy's economy has been badly damaged by their involvement in the Euro experiment.

You add to that fact the unchecked migrant crisis with an economically weak landing pad in Italy and you have everything you need for a populist takeover.

An Italian exit from the EU would be an utter an complete disaster for Italy. Italian agriculture, which is highly inefficient, would be decimated by a departure. And Italian business is really integrated into the EU. And the potential of a loss of 'freedom of movement' for Italian professionals would probably start an exodus by its talent for the doors that would be epic in scope. And that's before the economic recession kicked off by a exit from the Euro kicked in.

Anyone remember Italy before they joined the EU? Chaos, corruption, and crisis after crisis. By the way I'm going to add another c to that list. Currency. Italy would most certainly be ejected from the Euro if they left the EU. A collapse of epic proportions would ensue. Debasing your currency only works when doing so can actually help you compete with low cost manufacturers. Italy can't debase its currency enough to make its manufacturing competitive with China and India. And while lower costs should marginally help out high end Italian manufacturers, those will be wiped out by the loss of markets and investments. Oh, and get ready for double digit interest rates and massive inflation. Sure, a new equilibrium would eventually be reached, but that would take at least half a decade (probably much more), and there'd be a very nasty economic correction, hitting Italy far harder than any other EU nation, while that occurred.

Brexit has been a real problem for the UK....and remember, the UK doesn't have to change currency to leave. Italy would have to float a new currency to leave. Good God, what a nightmare. Lets just look at mortgages and corporate debt. All of those notes are denominated in Euros. Italy could just, by fiat, change the terms of those agreements to Nuovo Lira, but that would result in endless lawsuits and a complete lack of anyone to loan them any capital for decades. If they leave the existing financial arrangements in Euros and leave, then you expose your population and companies to massive problems if (when - its Italy) the Italian currency sinks like a rock versus the Euro. And good luck trying to actually use monetary policy with a new currency and an untrusted government to help your economy....The new government would probably have to be a complete slave to the globalists in order to prevent an economic collapse, because no one will trust them.

With a populist/extreme nationalist government leading an exit from the Euro, and one electorally dependent upon subsidy sucking agricultural subsidy regions leading the departure....who in their right mind would want some Nuovo Lira exposure?

Basically, only financially strong countries can even consider leaving the Euro. Greece recognized they couldn't leave, even under more drastic circumstances. Italy isn't financially strong, so they'd leave the EU at their own extreme peril.

(03-05-2018 10:36 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 09:49 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The only thing that is surprising about this is that people are surprised.

Italy's economy has been badly damaged by their involvement in the Euro experiment.

You add to that fact the unchecked migrant crisis with an economically weak landing pad in Italy and you have everything you need for a populist takeover.

An Italian exit from the EU would be an utter an complete disaster for Italy. Italian agriculture, which is highly inefficient, would be decimated by a departure. And Italian business is really integrated into the EU. And the potential of a loss of 'freedom of movement' for Italian professionals would probably start an exodus by its talent for the doors that would be epic in scope. And that's before the economic recession kicked off by a exit from the Euro kicked in.

Anyone remember Italy before they joined the EU? Chaos, corruption, and crisis after crisis. By the way I'm going to add another c to that list. Currency. Italy would most certainly be ejected from the Euro if they left the EU. A collapse of epic proportions would ensue. Debasing your currency only works when doing so can actually help you compete with low cost manufacturers. Italy can't debase its currency enough to make its manufacturing competitive with China and India. And while lower costs should marginally help out high end Italian manufacturers, those will be wiped out by the loss of markets and investments. Oh, and get ready for double digit interest rates and massive inflation. Sure, a new equilibrium would eventually be reached, but that would take at least half a decade (probably much more), and there'd be a very nasty economic correction, hitting Italy far harder than any other EU nation, while that occurred.

Brexit has been a real problem for the UK....and remember, the UK doesn't have to change currency to leave. Italy would have to float a new currency to leave. Good God, what a nightmare. Lets just look at mortgages and corporate debt. All of those notes are denominated in Euros. Italy could just, by fiat, change the terms of those agreements to Nuovo Lira, but that would result in endless lawsuits and a complete lack of anyone to loan them any capital for decades. If they leave the existing financial arrangements in Euros and leave, then you expose your population and companies to massive problems if (when - its Italy) the Italian currency sinks like a rock versus the Euro.

With a populist/extreme nationalist government leading an exit from the Euro, and one electorally dependent upon subsidy sucking agricultural subsidy regions leading the departure....who in their right mind would want some Nuovo Lira exposure?

Basically, only financially strong countries can even consider leaving the Euro. Greece recognized they couldn't leave, even under more drastic circumstances. Italy isn't financially strong, so they'd leave the EU at their own extreme peril.

Italy, like Greece, is screwed no matter what they do. Demographic trends—primarily an aging population and declining birth rate means economic growth isn’t going to happen for decades—perhaps never again—in those countries. Thier downward spiral can’t be stopped at this point.

(03-05-2018 11:07 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 10:36 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 09:49 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The only thing that is surprising about this is that people are surprised.

Italy's economy has been badly damaged by their involvement in the Euro experiment.

You add to that fact the unchecked migrant crisis with an economically weak landing pad in Italy and you have everything you need for a populist takeover.

An Italian exit from the EU would be an utter an complete disaster for Italy. Italian agriculture, which is highly inefficient, would be decimated by a departure. And Italian business is really integrated into the EU. And the potential of a loss of 'freedom of movement' for Italian professionals would probably start an exodus by its talent for the doors that would be epic in scope. And that's before the economic recession kicked off by a exit from the Euro kicked in.

Anyone remember Italy before they joined the EU? Chaos, corruption, and crisis after crisis. By the way I'm going to add another c to that list. Currency. Italy would most certainly be ejected from the Euro if they left the EU. A collapse of epic proportions would ensue. Debasing your currency only works when doing so can actually help you compete with low cost manufacturers. Italy can't debase its currency enough to make its manufacturing competitive with China and India. And while lower costs should marginally help out high end Italian manufacturers, those will be wiped out by the loss of markets and investments. Oh, and get ready for double digit interest rates and massive inflation. Sure, a new equilibrium would eventually be reached, but that would take at least half a decade (probably much more), and there'd be a very nasty economic correction, hitting Italy far harder than any other EU nation, while that occurred.

Brexit has been a real problem for the UK....and remember, the UK doesn't have to change currency to leave. Italy would have to float a new currency to leave. Good God, what a nightmare. Lets just look at mortgages and corporate debt. All of those notes are denominated in Euros. Italy could just, by fiat, change the terms of those agreements to Nuovo Lira, but that would result in endless lawsuits and a complete lack of anyone to loan them any capital for decades. If they leave the existing financial arrangements in Euros and leave, then you expose your population and companies to massive problems if (when - its Italy) the Italian currency sinks like a rock versus the Euro.

With a populist/extreme nationalist government leading an exit from the Euro, and one electorally dependent upon subsidy sucking agricultural subsidy regions leading the departure....who in their right mind would want some Nuovo Lira exposure?

Basically, only financially strong countries can even consider leaving the Euro. Greece recognized they couldn't leave, even under more drastic circumstances. Italy isn't financially strong, so they'd leave the EU at their own extreme peril.

Italy, like Greece, is screwed no matter what they do. Demographic trends—primarily an aging population and declining birth rate means economic growth isn’t going to happen for decades—perhaps never again—in those countries. Thier downward spiral can’t be stopped at this point.

Import Polish and Russian plumbers instead of North African day laborers.

(03-05-2018 11:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 11:07 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 10:36 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 09:49 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The only thing that is surprising about this is that people are surprised.

Italy's economy has been badly damaged by their involvement in the Euro experiment.

You add to that fact the unchecked migrant crisis with an economically weak landing pad in Italy and you have everything you need for a populist takeover.

An Italian exit from the EU would be an utter an complete disaster for Italy. Italian agriculture, which is highly inefficient, would be decimated by a departure. And Italian business is really integrated into the EU. And the potential of a loss of 'freedom of movement' for Italian professionals would probably start an exodus by its talent for the doors that would be epic in scope. And that's before the economic recession kicked off by a exit from the Euro kicked in.

Anyone remember Italy before they joined the EU? Chaos, corruption, and crisis after crisis. By the way I'm going to add another c to that list. Currency. Italy would most certainly be ejected from the Euro if they left the EU. A collapse of epic proportions would ensue. Debasing your currency only works when doing so can actually help you compete with low cost manufacturers. Italy can't debase its currency enough to make its manufacturing competitive with China and India. And while lower costs should marginally help out high end Italian manufacturers, those will be wiped out by the loss of markets and investments. Oh, and get ready for double digit interest rates and massive inflation. Sure, a new equilibrium would eventually be reached, but that would take at least half a decade (probably much more), and there'd be a very nasty economic correction, hitting Italy far harder than any other EU nation, while that occurred.

Brexit has been a real problem for the UK....and remember, the UK doesn't have to change currency to leave. Italy would have to float a new currency to leave. Good God, what a nightmare. Lets just look at mortgages and corporate debt. All of those notes are denominated in Euros. Italy could just, by fiat, change the terms of those agreements to Nuovo Lira, but that would result in endless lawsuits and a complete lack of anyone to loan them any capital for decades. If they leave the existing financial arrangements in Euros and leave, then you expose your population and companies to massive problems if (when - its Italy) the Italian currency sinks like a rock versus the Euro.

With a populist/extreme nationalist government leading an exit from the Euro, and one electorally dependent upon subsidy sucking agricultural subsidy regions leading the departure....who in their right mind would want some Nuovo Lira exposure?

Basically, only financially strong countries can even consider leaving the Euro. Greece recognized they couldn't leave, even under more drastic circumstances. Italy isn't financially strong, so they'd leave the EU at their own extreme peril.

Italy, like Greece, is screwed no matter what they do. Demographic trends—primarily an aging population and declining birth rate means economic growth isn’t going to happen for decades—perhaps never again—in those countries. Thier downward spiral can’t be stopped at this point.

Import Polish and Russian plumbers instead of North African day laborers.

There's lots of both (Poles and Russians, but the biggest group are Albanians) in Italy. But I have a question, why are Russian plumbers better than say, African ones from Eritrea for example?

I'm confused as to why you would have that preference. Russians, like Eritreans are Christian Orthodox, not Roman Catholic. Russians aren't particularly close to Italians in outlook either. Eritreans actually have more familiarity with Italian culture. So it really can't be culture can it? What could possibly be the reason you'd prefer Russians to Africans?

But to answer the questions about the Italian birth rate ...its a combination of many factors, most notably an economy where its young and specifically its educated young leave in large numbers for more liberal areas. Now they're going there largely for economic rather than cultural reasons but that's an issue as well.

In addition, Italian culture is kind of set up to inhibit childbirth. First, the economy doesn't lend itself to affordable housing, which makes a lot of young Italians live in areas where they simply don't have enough housing to feel comfortable raising a family.

But you really can't blame the low child birth rate on social issues. Italy is a notable laggard on same sex marriage and abortion. The Catholic Church occupies a very strong role in Italian society and the state.

The solution is....the same as that in the USA....import ethnic groups that WILL have more children than the natives. Those kids will be Italian. BTW, Russia and Poland have abysmal birth rates too. African countries...a lot more.

They need to do a much better job of patrolling their shores to stop the boats with the illegals.

(03-05-2018 11:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 11:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 11:07 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 10:36 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 09:49 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The only thing that is surprising about this is that people are surprised.

Italy's economy has been badly damaged by their involvement in the Euro experiment.

You add to that fact the unchecked migrant crisis with an economically weak landing pad in Italy and you have everything you need for a populist takeover.

An Italian exit from the EU would be an utter an complete disaster for Italy. Italian agriculture, which is highly inefficient, would be decimated by a departure. And Italian business is really integrated into the EU. And the potential of a loss of 'freedom of movement' for Italian professionals would probably start an exodus by its talent for the doors that would be epic in scope. And that's before the economic recession kicked off by a exit from the Euro kicked in.

Anyone remember Italy before they joined the EU? Chaos, corruption, and crisis after crisis. By the way I'm going to add another c to that list. Currency. Italy would most certainly be ejected from the Euro if they left the EU. A collapse of epic proportions would ensue. Debasing your currency only works when doing so can actually help you compete with low cost manufacturers. Italy can't debase its currency enough to make its manufacturing competitive with China and India. And while lower costs should marginally help out high end Italian manufacturers, those will be wiped out by the loss of markets and investments. Oh, and get ready for double digit interest rates and massive inflation. Sure, a new equilibrium would eventually be reached, but that would take at least half a decade (probably much more), and there'd be a very nasty economic correction, hitting Italy far harder than any other EU nation, while that occurred.

Brexit has been a real problem for the UK....and remember, the UK doesn't have to change currency to leave. Italy would have to float a new currency to leave. Good God, what a nightmare. Lets just look at mortgages and corporate debt. All of those notes are denominated in Euros. Italy could just, by fiat, change the terms of those agreements to Nuovo Lira, but that would result in endless lawsuits and a complete lack of anyone to loan them any capital for decades. If they leave the existing financial arrangements in Euros and leave, then you expose your population and companies to massive problems if (when - its Italy) the Italian currency sinks like a rock versus the Euro.

With a populist/extreme nationalist government leading an exit from the Euro, and one electorally dependent upon subsidy sucking agricultural subsidy regions leading the departure....who in their right mind would want some Nuovo Lira exposure?

Basically, only financially strong countries can even consider leaving the Euro. Greece recognized they couldn't leave, even under more drastic circumstances. Italy isn't financially strong, so they'd leave the EU at their own extreme peril.

Italy, like Greece, is screwed no matter what they do. Demographic trends—primarily an aging population and declining birth rate means economic growth isn’t going to happen for decades—perhaps never again—in those countries. Thier downward spiral can’t be stopped at this point.

Import Polish and Russian plumbers instead of North African day laborers.

There's lots of both (Poles and Russians, but the biggest group are Albanians) in Italy. But I have a question, why are Russian plumbers better than say, African ones from Eritrea for example?

I'm confused as to why you would have that preference. Russians, like Eritreans are Christian Orthodox, not Roman Catholic. Russians aren't particularly close to Italians in outlook either. Eritreans actually have more familiarity with Italian culture. So it really can't be culture can it? What could possibly be the reason you'd prefer Russians to Africans?

But to answer the questions about the Italian birth rate ...its a combination of many factors, most notably an economy where its young and specifically its educated young leave in large numbers for more liberal areas. Now they're going there largely for economic rather than cultural reasons but that's an issue as well.

In addition, Italian culture is kind of set up to inhibit childbirth. First, the economy doesn't lend itself to affordable housing, which makes a lot of young Italians live in areas where they simply don't have enough housing to feel comfortable raising a family.

But you really can't blame the low child birth rate on social issues. Italy is a notable laggard on same sex marriage and abortion. The Catholic Church occupies a very strong role in Italian society and the state.

The solution is....the same as that in the USA....import ethnic groups that WILL have more children than the natives. Those kids will be Italian. BTW, Russia and Poland have abysmal birth rates too. African countries...a lot more.

You know the answer. The people coming from Africa are generally low skilled and desperate. Other Europeans are more likely to be skilled.

Could be discussing the fall of the Roman Empire here.
A great influx of people who just want a job with no interest in assimilation into the local culture.
No wait, maybe that’s America we were discussing.

(03-05-2018 01:32 PM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  Could be discussing the fall of the Roman Empire here.
A great influx of people who just want a job with no interest in assimilation into the local culture.
No wait, maybe that’s America we were discussing.

Well Gibbon said the primary factors in the decline and fall of the Roman Empire were high taxes and letting millions of desperate barbarians in over the border (the Goths (edit-not the Vandals) who were fleeing the Huns and the Romans relented, letting them across the river, having no idea how many there were).

(03-05-2018 01:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 11:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 11:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 11:07 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-05-2018 10:36 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  An Italian exit from the EU would be an utter an complete disaster for Italy. Italian agriculture, which is highly inefficient, would be decimated by a departure. And Italian business is really integrated into the EU. And the potential of a loss of 'freedom of movement' for Italian professionals would probably start an exodus by its talent for the doors that would be epic in scope. And that's before the economic recession kicked off by a exit from the Euro kicked in.

Anyone remember Italy before they joined the EU? Chaos, corruption, and crisis after crisis. By the way I'm going to add another c to that list. Currency. Italy would most certainly be ejected from the Euro if they left the EU. A collapse of epic proportions would ensue. Debasing your currency only works when doing so can actually help you compete with low cost manufacturers. Italy can't debase its currency enough to make its manufacturing competitive with China and India. And while lower costs should marginally help out high end Italian manufacturers, those will be wiped out by the loss of markets and investments. Oh, and get ready for double digit interest rates and massive inflation. Sure, a new equilibrium would eventually be reached, but that would take at least half a decade (probably much more), and there'd be a very nasty economic correction, hitting Italy far harder than any other EU nation, while that occurred.

Brexit has been a real problem for the UK....and remember, the UK doesn't have to change currency to leave. Italy would have to float a new currency to leave. Good God, what a nightmare. Lets just look at mortgages and corporate debt. All of those notes are denominated in Euros. Italy could just, by fiat, change the terms of those agreements to Nuovo Lira, but that would result in endless lawsuits and a complete lack of anyone to loan them any capital for decades. If they leave the existing financial arrangements in Euros and leave, then you expose your population and companies to massive problems if (when - its Italy) the Italian currency sinks like a rock versus the Euro.

With a populist/extreme nationalist government leading an exit from the Euro, and one electorally dependent upon subsidy sucking agricultural subsidy regions leading the departure....who in their right mind would want some Nuovo Lira exposure?

Basically, only financially strong countries can even consider leaving the Euro. Greece recognized they couldn't leave, even under more drastic circumstances. Italy isn't financially strong, so they'd leave the EU at their own extreme peril.

Italy, like Greece, is screwed no matter what they do. Demographic trends—primarily an aging population and declining birth rate means economic growth isn’t going to happen for decades—perhaps never again—in those countries. Thier downward spiral can’t be stopped at this point.

Import Polish and Russian plumbers instead of North African day laborers.

There's lots of both (Poles and Russians, but the biggest group are Albanians) in Italy. But I have a question, why are Russian plumbers better than say, African ones from Eritrea for example?

I'm confused as to why you would have that preference. Russians, like Eritreans are Christian Orthodox, not Roman Catholic. Russians aren't particularly close to Italians in outlook either. Eritreans actually have more familiarity with Italian culture. So it really can't be culture can it? What could possibly be the reason you'd prefer Russians to Africans?

But to answer the questions about the Italian birth rate ...its a combination of many factors, most notably an economy where its young and specifically its educated young leave in large numbers for more liberal areas. Now they're going there largely for economic rather than cultural reasons but that's an issue as well.

In addition, Italian culture is kind of set up to inhibit childbirth. First, the economy doesn't lend itself to affordable housing, which makes a lot of young Italians live in areas where they simply don't have enough housing to feel comfortable raising a family.

But you really can't blame the low child birth rate on social issues. Italy is a notable laggard on same sex marriage and abortion. The Catholic Church occupies a very strong role in Italian society and the state.

The solution is....the same as that in the USA....import ethnic groups that WILL have more children than the natives. Those kids will be Italian. BTW, Russia and Poland have abysmal birth rates too. African countries...a lot more.

You know the answer. The people coming from Africa are generally low skilled and desperate. Other Europeans are more likely to be skilled.

That's not the answer I was thinking of. Working class emigres are usually low skilled and desperate. You don't leave your own country unless there are some push factors, especially for a place like Italy.

Really? We're talking about plumbers. Its not rocket science. What long term skills do you need? Basic literacy and concepts of math plus the ability to work hard are all that really needed.

Come on man, there's no particular reason why Italy should import Russians over Eritreans. BTW, Russians leaving Russia don't largely go to Italy anyway. Working class Russian emigres strongly prefer the USA, Canada, Spain and Germany.