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Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
China has conducted a 'war'—not trade—with steel, experts say

Despite China signaling moves to cut its excess steel production capacity, industry chiefs say the country has declared a metals "war" that has had a "devastating" impact for the rest of the world's industry.

Overcapacity in the steel industry has been a thorn in the side of the sector in recent years, pushing prices down and making it harder for some steel companies to survive.

China's low-cost metal producers have been widely cited as the main culprit for the glut. In particular, the world's second largest economy has been accused of "dumping" cheap steel on to global markets, due to a slowdown in domestic demand, in a bid to gain market share. However Beijing has denied any wrongdoing and has said that its costs are lower than other producers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/20/china-st...y-war.html
03-06-2018 11:53 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
[Image: 7WX8rY0L?format=jpg&name=600x314]

U.S. industries decimated by dumping of cheap steel by China, others
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tariff...2018-03-02
03-06-2018 11:54 AM
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Post: #43
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 11:14 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 11:00 AM)Crebman Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 10:37 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  In the ranges that they are looking at, a 15% VAT would accomplish virtually the same thing, and would not run afoul of international law or subject us to retaliatory tariffs that appear to be on the horizon.
This is a really stupid move by Trump. Do a consumption tax instead and we could balance the budget, reduce income taxes, implement a subsistence-level guaranteed basic income, AND institute a Bismarck universal private health care system. All of those things.
Is it a stupid move when the entity that would have to pass it into law won't do it because it might dilute their power via taxation??

That's the reason it's not happening. If I can't pass out the goodies in the form of selective tax breaks, how can I get my re-election funded?

But somebody needs to start putting country over team and principle over person. Like you (I think), I'm afraid I don't see it really happening.

and has been so effectively argued against that I don't recall one Democrat (even those who aggressively want us to model Europe) suggesting it as anything but a tax on the poor and middle class... and even some Republicans have bought into this, because it works.

The idea of a prefund of course solves this, but if I said that i wouldn't trust a prefund because while it might be 100% today, they are going to make it 90%, then 80, then 70.... MOST people would agree... and if i said that while prices will go up (by the amount of the tax) but so will incomes.... MOST people wouldn't trust it.

Even if you trusted 100% the people putting it in place, you wouldn't trust future politicians to stand by it.
03-06-2018 12:38 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 12:38 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 11:14 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 11:00 AM)Crebman Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 10:37 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  In the ranges that they are looking at, a 15% VAT would accomplish virtually the same thing, and would not run afoul of international law or subject us to retaliatory tariffs that appear to be on the horizon.
This is a really stupid move by Trump. Do a consumption tax instead and we could balance the budget, reduce income taxes, implement a subsistence-level guaranteed basic income, AND institute a Bismarck universal private health care system. All of those things.
Is it a stupid move when the entity that would have to pass it into law won't do it because it might dilute their power via taxation??
That's the reason it's not happening. If I can't pass out the goodies in the form of selective tax breaks, how can I get my re-election funded?
But somebody needs to start putting country over team and principle over person. Like you (I think), I'm afraid I don't see it really happening.
and has been so effectively argued against that I don't recall one Democrat (even those who aggressively want us to model Europe) suggesting it as anything but a tax on the poor and middle class... and even some Republicans have bought into this, because it works.
The idea of a prefund of course solves this, but if I said that i wouldn't trust a prefund because while it might be 100% today, they are going to make it 90%, then 80, then 70.... MOST people would agree... and if i said that while prices will go up (by the amount of the tax) but so will incomes.... MOST people wouldn't trust it.
Even if you trusted 100% the people putting it in place, you wouldn't trust future politicians to stand by it.

But here's the thing. It's the reason why we are getting our asses kicked on trade deals. Everybody else gets to charge a "tariff" on imports without having to call it a tariff, and they get to subsidize exports without having to call it a subsidy, all perfectly in accord with well-established international law. If we try to retaliate with tariffs, we are going to find 1) some of them are not going to be permitted under international law, and 2) to the extent that they are permitted, they are going to be met with retaliatory tariffs coming back at us that will do more harm than we can do good.
03-06-2018 12:50 PM
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ericsrevenge76 Online
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Post: #45
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 11:42 AM)ODU BLUE Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 12:35 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 03:39 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 03:34 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Good luck stopping Globalism.

We'll never surrender our country or its people to the false song of globalism.


Well, "we" as in you and I will not, but the bible is clear there is a final world government coming with the antichrist as the final world rule. And all nations will join up with him.

America will join up with the globalists when the time comes. It will likely be a global crisis that ushers it in. The nations of the world are 90% of the way there now, it should be obvious to everyone. But most are spiritually blinded or already totally on board with it.

Right now we are having our last stand against them imo. Thanks to Trump, Brexit and some other things. Its just a temporary slowdown though.

""we" as in you and I will not" ........ I'm going with you. I don't want anything to do with the pain and suffering that comes along with the antichrist's rule. The way I read it you/I will be gone before anyone knows who he is.


I fully agree
03-06-2018 01:05 PM
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JTiger Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 10:37 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  In the ranges that they are looking at, a 15% VAT would accomplish virtually the same thing, and would not run afoul of international law or subject us to retaliatory tariffs that appear to be on the horizon.

This is a really stupid move by Trump. Do a consumption tax instead and we could balance the budget, reduce income taxes, implement a subsistence-level guaranteed basic income, AND institute a Bismarck universal private health care system. All of those things.

I would argue that at consumption tax like a national sales tax would be more fair than the current income tax system we have now. That way there are no loopholes and everyone pays their share.

But as stated above it would end the lobbying in DC so that isn't going to happen. Publicly fund congressional and presidential campaigns to get the special interest money out of the game.
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2018 01:36 PM by JTiger.)
03-06-2018 01:34 PM
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Post: #47
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 12:50 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  But here's the thing. It's the reason why we are getting our asses kicked on trade deals. Everybody else gets to charge a "tariff" on imports without having to call it a tariff, and they get to subsidize exports without having to call it a subsidy, all perfectly in accord with well-established international law. If we try to retaliate with tariffs, we are going to find 1) some of them are not going to be permitted under international law, and 2) to the extent that they are permitted, they are going to be met with retaliatory tariffs coming back at us that will do more harm than we can do good.

Owl, Half the country or more doesn't understand the relationship between imports/exports and their jobs/income. They think China dumping steel (or whomever) and thus making it cheap is a good thing for us.

I agree 100% that this is the right solution, and I agree 100% that it needs to be done. I also note that 'Republicans' have been increasingly pushing it since Perot or even earlier, with almost every one of the 57 (joking) candidates who recently ran for the post presenting some version of it, which allowed people to make distinctions in the differences, but made it harder for them to argue that it was a bad idea in general... but despite the global popularity of it, I've never seen one democrat on any level in any election run on the idea. Luxury tax and sales tax with exemptions for basics is the closest I've ever seen, which is why I once embraced the idea of a national sales tax. If it's not regressive for the state/county, then why is it regressive at the Federal level. The VAT and prefund is of course cleaner, but we're 30 years into it and still haven't seen a serious proposal for such a plan. The current political environment is class and race warfare.... and this is a monstrous target for those claims
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2018 01:57 PM by Hambone10.)
03-06-2018 01:55 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 07:27 AM)JTiger Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 04:31 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  Global trade war is not a good idea.

But threatening global trade war to force these people to the table to stop their unfair trade practices is a good idea.

Which is Trump up to? No clue.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk

It's a game of poker with serious consequences depending on who wins. Either way it will upset the status quo on how we trade and that uncertainty will wreak havoc on the markets. Some will benefit but many will be hurt by it. My industry buys steel and we are nervous about the availability and lead times for steel products coming up.

Not really any consequences at all for us in a trade war. We are currently by far the worlds biggest loser in trade. No one else is even close. OUr trade deficit is about 800 billion a year---the next closest is about 160 billion a year. We cant fall below last place---and it last place as in the field has lapped us about 3 or 4 times.

The difference between the Chinese surplus (China has the largest surplus in the world) and our deficit (we have the largest trade deficit in the world) is 1.4 TRILLION dollars. Thats the consequences of losing the trade war. We already lost because we have played the game so badly. Anything we do will be an improvement.
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2018 06:20 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-06-2018 06:11 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 12:50 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 12:38 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 11:14 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 11:00 AM)Crebman Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 10:37 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  In the ranges that they are looking at, a 15% VAT would accomplish virtually the same thing, and would not run afoul of international law or subject us to retaliatory tariffs that appear to be on the horizon.
This is a really stupid move by Trump. Do a consumption tax instead and we could balance the budget, reduce income taxes, implement a subsistence-level guaranteed basic income, AND institute a Bismarck universal private health care system. All of those things.
Is it a stupid move when the entity that would have to pass it into law won't do it because it might dilute their power via taxation??
That's the reason it's not happening. If I can't pass out the goodies in the form of selective tax breaks, how can I get my re-election funded?
But somebody needs to start putting country over team and principle over person. Like you (I think), I'm afraid I don't see it really happening.
and has been so effectively argued against that I don't recall one Democrat (even those who aggressively want us to model Europe) suggesting it as anything but a tax on the poor and middle class... and even some Republicans have bought into this, because it works.
The idea of a prefund of course solves this, but if I said that i wouldn't trust a prefund because while it might be 100% today, they are going to make it 90%, then 80, then 70.... MOST people would agree... and if i said that while prices will go up (by the amount of the tax) but so will incomes.... MOST people wouldn't trust it.
Even if you trusted 100% the people putting it in place, you wouldn't trust future politicians to stand by it.

But here's the thing. It's the reason why we are getting our asses kicked on trade deals. Everybody else gets to charge a "tariff" on imports without having to call it a tariff, and they get to subsidize exports without having to call it a subsidy, all perfectly in accord with well-established international law. If we try to retaliate with tariffs, we are going to find 1) some of them are not going to be permitted under international law, and 2) to the extent that they are permitted, they are going to be met with retaliatory tariffs coming back at us that will do more harm than we can do good.

You recognize that. So do they. Like I said, if they dont like our "fair" trade policies---then don't trade with us. We are both the worlds largest market and the worlds largest net trade loser. A trade war hurts them far more than it hurts us--which is why we effectively hold all the cards. The EU VAT is basically 15% plus whatever any member country wants to add to that. So, essentially its a 20-25% tarriff on all US goods. Screw them. They have essentially been in trade war with the US for years. PLUS our industry has a to pay a higher tax rate to cover the cost of subsidizing the defense of the friggin EU countries against the Russian. If they want to get in a trade war---we have all sorts of ways to tighten the screws.
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2018 06:30 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-06-2018 06:27 PM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
800 Billion dollar trade deficit.

We could dump osha, the eeoc, the epa, pay our people starvation wages and be competitve

Or we can fight back. A service industry economy produces servants

2017
China 831 million metric tons
U.S. 81

1967
China 14
U.S. 115

I guess we use second hand warships from Asia after they finish colonization.

The United States is the number one importer of Steel.
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2018 07:08 PM by shere khan.)
03-06-2018 06:45 PM
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Post: #51
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-06-2018 06:11 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 07:27 AM)JTiger Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 04:31 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  Global trade war is not a good idea.

But threatening global trade war to force these people to the table to stop their unfair trade practices is a good idea.

Which is Trump up to? No clue.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk

It's a game of poker with serious consequences depending on who wins. Either way it will upset the status quo on how we trade and that uncertainty will wreak havoc on the markets. Some will benefit but many will be hurt by it. My industry buys steel and we are nervous about the availability and lead times for steel products coming up.

Not really any consequences at all for us in a trade war. We are currently by far the worlds biggest loser in trade. No one else is even close. OUr trade deficit is about 800 billion a year---the next closest is about 160 billion a year. We cant fall below last place---and it last place as in the field has lapped us about 3 or 4 times.

The difference between the Chinese surplus (China has the largest surplus in the world) and our deficit (we have the largest trade deficit in the world) is 1.4 TRILLION dollars. Thats the consequences of losing the trade war. We already lost because we have played the game so badly. Anything we do will be an improvement.

Unless the other countries actually raise tariffs on bourbon and jeans as they've threatened. Kentucky might disagree with you that there aren't any consequences.

We certainly have a very unbalanced trade defect. That can be blamed on MANY administrations and both sides of the aisle. If this works, Trump will look like a genius, if not ...
03-07-2018 07:44 AM
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stinkfist Online
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Post: #52
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-07-2018 07:44 AM)JTiger Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 06:11 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 07:27 AM)JTiger Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 04:31 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  Global trade war is not a good idea.

But threatening global trade war to force these people to the table to stop their unfair trade practices is a good idea.

Which is Trump up to? No clue.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk

It's a game of poker with serious consequences depending on who wins. Either way it will upset the status quo on how we trade and that uncertainty will wreak havoc on the markets. Some will benefit but many will be hurt by it. My industry buys steel and we are nervous about the availability and lead times for steel products coming up.

Not really any consequences at all for us in a trade war. We are currently by far the worlds biggest loser in trade. No one else is even close. OUr trade deficit is about 800 billion a year---the next closest is about 160 billion a year. We cant fall below last place---and it last place as in the field has lapped us about 3 or 4 times.

The difference between the Chinese surplus (China has the largest surplus in the world) and our deficit (we have the largest trade deficit in the world) is 1.4 TRILLION dollars. Thats the consequences of losing the trade war. We already lost because we have played the game so badly. Anything we do will be an improvement.

Unless the other countries actually raise tariffs on bourbon and jeans as they've threatened. Kentucky might disagree with you that there aren't any consequences.

We certainly have a very unbalanced trade defect. That can be blamed on MANY administrations and both sides of the aisle. If this works, Trump will look like a genius, if not ...

I'm sticking with my initial reaction....I don't like it being implemented this way at all....

toss in wanting to invest in infrastructure down the road, and the residual inflationary possibility becomes more of a reality....

this is a bad move.....too fast, too soon after the tax cuts......
03-07-2018 07:57 AM
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Post: #53
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-05-2018 08:59 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 08:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 08:32 PM)Paul M Wrote:  It's a military and national security issue today. Wont be tomorrow (next week, next month, whenever) when Trump drops it.
If if that happens we lost absolutely nothing. We have 800 billion dollar trade deficit. Basically, we have nothing to lose and everything to gain by changing our trade positions.

The really amazing thing is that we have this huge trade deficit while being one of the least involved nations in international trade. We import, but we don't export, is what those statistics, taken together, would say.

I agree with you that a consumption or VAT tax is a better way to go to level the playing field (assuming we eliminate the income tax), but don't see it happening because of politics. It does seem like the US has little to lose and a lot to gain from challenging the status quo and engaging in protectionism. Exporters lose in a trade war. We're a massive importer, it would help our native industries to an incredible degree.
03-07-2018 08:16 AM
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Post: #54
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-07-2018 08:16 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 08:59 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 08:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 08:32 PM)Paul M Wrote:  It's a military and national security issue today. Wont be tomorrow (next week, next month, whenever) when Trump drops it.
If if that happens we lost absolutely nothing. We have 800 billion dollar trade deficit. Basically, we have nothing to lose and everything to gain by changing our trade positions.

The really amazing thing is that we have this huge trade deficit while being one of the least involved nations in international trade. We import, but we don't export, is what those statistics, taken together, would say.

I agree with you that a consumption or VAT tax is a better way to go to level the playing field (assuming we eliminate the income tax), but don't see it happening because of politics. It does seem like the US has little to lose and a lot to gain from challenging the status quo and engaging in protectionism. Exporters lose in a trade war. We're a massive importer, it would help our native industries to an incredible degree.

it's the only logical macro path....and they continue to ignore it for obvious reasons.....

this is the one area I was hoping the #DJTexperiment would make the biggest change of all...

I wish I could play one rd. of golf with him and bark between shots....

there's nothing easy when attempting to drain the swamp.....however, he's taking a hard-line position whilst gambling with too many livelihoods relative to the gain potential on this one....

this is a Yuge misstep....it's a potential USD crippler....
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 09:13 AM by stinkfist.)
03-07-2018 09:11 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
Guys are we the biggest loser in trade? Are we really?

Basically, we get cheaper goods and manufacturing inputs than the rest of the world. That helps us in many ways. Also, since the rest of the world appears willing to finance exports to us, seemingly forever, in our own currency....so guess what? Great, thanks for the heavily discounted stuff. And by stuff, I don't mean just TVs and Cars, but inputs as well.

And God forbid that a country with overcapacity and a overreliance on exports tries to actually harm our currency. THEY would be the big losers if they did so. During the 2008 financial crisis, Russia approached China to ask them to help them collapse the US economy by dumping treasuries. China told them "are you nuts?" and actually started buying them. Basically, most of the world is reliant, either directly or indirectly, on a strong dollar. And basically the US is making the world give us free, or heavily discounted, money as a result.

There's a reason why countries with high tariffs usually tend to suck. They tend to fight to keep industries that they aren't really competitive in at the expense of industries that they would be better competitors in. It also incentivizes workers to choose paths that aren't the best use of their talents, from an economic standpoint. Think of it as a form of "Dutch Disease".

I know, you're going to throw out China as an example of a country with high tariffs and a growing economy. Protectionism CAN work, but only in countries where the manufacturing value added is completely based upon price. China doesn't really innovate. China just tries to be the lowest cost provider of a good or service. That's great for getting from having a bottom 10 per capita income to a lower middle income pci, but then it always stalls. Because that game only works when your workers are making crap money. The reason China's growth has pretty much stalled is because they're reaching a stage of development where competing with Bangladesh on price is no longer much of an economic driver (to say nothing of a way out of poverty for the 800 million Chinese who live in households making less (usually far less) than 10,000 USD per year). To grow from a cheap manufacturer of basic goods to a middle income or developed economy, a transition has to take place where low cost manufacturing is substituted with value added manufacturing, innovation, and value added service provision. Japan and Korea made that transition. China? Not so much.

Yes, it can go too far, and yes, there will be winners and losers (especially workers in mature industries) from it, but there are definitely winners from our current low tariff policy. And I'd argue that the economy is better off as a result.

Oh, and the USA is a huge exporter of services, such as Consulting, Finance, etc. This really is where a lot of the higher paying jobs are and where much more value is for the American economy. That, too, can be a subject to what effectively can be called tariffs.

---


So Trump's economic policy appears to be doubling down on 150 year old technologies (Coal, Internal Combustion Engines, Steel) at the expense of innovative technologies that will grow our country at a faster rate. We're never going to be cheaper than Brazil or China or India on those things (at least I hope not - it would mean our workers would be making less than those counterparts), so I see no problem with letting them provide a greater share of those inputs at a lower price than we could make them ourselves....and....giving us heavily discounted money to buy them.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 10:43 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 10:41 AM
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BuffaloTN Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-07-2018 10:41 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys are we the biggest loser in trade? Are we really?

Yes.
03-07-2018 11:05 AM
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Post: #57
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-07-2018 07:44 AM)JTiger Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 06:11 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 07:27 AM)JTiger Wrote:  
(03-05-2018 04:31 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  Global trade war is not a good idea.

But threatening global trade war to force these people to the table to stop their unfair trade practices is a good idea.

Which is Trump up to? No clue.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk

It's a game of poker with serious consequences depending on who wins. Either way it will upset the status quo on how we trade and that uncertainty will wreak havoc on the markets. Some will benefit but many will be hurt by it. My industry buys steel and we are nervous about the availability and lead times for steel products coming up.

Not really any consequences at all for us in a trade war. We are currently by far the worlds biggest loser in trade. No one else is even close. OUr trade deficit is about 800 billion a year---the next closest is about 160 billion a year. We cant fall below last place---and it last place as in the field has lapped us about 3 or 4 times.

The difference between the Chinese surplus (China has the largest surplus in the world) and our deficit (we have the largest trade deficit in the world) is 1.4 TRILLION dollars. Thats the consequences of losing the trade war. We already lost because we have played the game so badly. Anything we do will be an improvement.

Unless the other countries actually raise tariffs on bourbon and jeans as they've threatened. Kentucky might disagree with you that there aren't any consequences.

We certainly have a very unbalanced trade defect. That can be blamed on MANY administrations and both sides of the aisle. If this works, Trump will look like a genius, if not ...

Let them. The net affect is positive for the US. Look, even if the EU did that ----Kentucky bourbon isnt going to disappear. The US steel and aluminum industry might very well dissappear.

Besides, those Kentucky products are already effective working against a EU "tarrif". The EU just calls it a VAT tax. When the US slaps tariffs on wine and EU autos---the EU will eventually start to realize the loser in any trade war where you have a huge trade surplus is going to be them. I'd also add---I'll bet that most of the "European" steel this tarriff would effect isnt even European made. Its reshipped Chinese steel.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 11:36 AM by Attackcoog.)
03-07-2018 11:23 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-07-2018 10:41 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys are we the biggest loser in trade? Are we really?

Basically, we get cheaper goods and manufacturing inputs than the rest of the world. That helps us in many ways. Also, since the rest of the world appears willing to finance exports to us, seemingly forever, in our own currency....so guess what? Great, thanks for the heavily discounted stuff. And by stuff, I don't mean just TVs and Cars, but inputs as well.

And God forbid that a country with overcapacity and a overreliance on exports tries to actually harm our currency. THEY would be the big losers if they did so. During the 2008 financial crisis, Russia approached China to ask them to help them collapse the US economy by dumping treasuries. China told them "are you nuts?" and actually started buying them. Basically, most of the world is reliant, either directly or indirectly, on a strong dollar. And basically the US is making the world give us free, or heavily discounted, money as a result.

There's a reason why countries with high tariffs usually tend to suck. They tend to fight to keep industries that they aren't really competitive in at the expense of industries that they would be better competitors in. It also incentivizes workers to choose paths that aren't the best use of their talents, from an economic standpoint. Think of it as a form of "Dutch Disease".

I know, you're going to throw out China as an example of a country with high tariffs and a growing economy. Protectionism CAN work, but only in countries where the manufacturing value added is completely based upon price. China doesn't really innovate. China just tries to be the lowest cost provider of a good or service. That's great for getting from having a bottom 10 per capita income to a lower middle income pci, but then it always stalls. Because that game only works when your workers are making crap money. The reason China's growth has pretty much stalled is because they're reaching a stage of development where competing with Bangladesh on price is no longer much of an economic driver (to say nothing of a way out of poverty for the 800 million Chinese who live in households making less (usually far less) than 10,000 USD per year). To grow from a cheap manufacturer of basic goods to a middle income or developed economy, a transition has to take place where low cost manufacturing is substituted with value added manufacturing, innovation, and value added service provision. Japan and Korea made that transition. China? Not so much.

Yes, it can go too far, and yes, there will be winners and losers (especially workers in mature industries) from it, but there are definitely winners from our current low tariff policy. And I'd argue that the economy is better off as a result.

Oh, and the USA is a huge exporter of services, such as Consulting, Finance, etc. This really is where a lot of the higher paying jobs are and where much more value is for the American economy. That, too, can be a subject to what effectively can be called tariffs.

---


So Trump's economic policy appears to be doubling down on 150 year old technologies (Coal, Internal Combustion Engines, Steel) at the expense of innovative technologies that will grow our country at a faster rate. We're never going to be cheaper than Brazil or China or India on those things (at least I hope not - it would mean our workers would be making less than those counterparts), so I see no problem with letting them provide a greater share of those inputs at a lower price than we could make them ourselves....and....giving us heavily discounted money to buy them.

Here's the thing. You are looking at Chinese steel dumping as essentially thier government subsidizing end products in the US. Thats true. It does do that.

However, you need to ask the question---why would any government do that?

The answer is they dont see it as subsidizing your end products. They see it as BUYING your manufacturing base. It just takes awhile.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 11:33 AM by Attackcoog.)
03-07-2018 11:32 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
(03-07-2018 11:32 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 10:41 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys are we the biggest loser in trade? Are we really?

Basically, we get cheaper goods and manufacturing inputs than the rest of the world. That helps us in many ways. Also, since the rest of the world appears willing to finance exports to us, seemingly forever, in our own currency....so guess what? Great, thanks for the heavily discounted stuff. And by stuff, I don't mean just TVs and Cars, but inputs as well.

And God forbid that a country with overcapacity and a overreliance on exports tries to actually harm our currency. THEY would be the big losers if they did so. During the 2008 financial crisis, Russia approached China to ask them to help them collapse the US economy by dumping treasuries. China told them "are you nuts?" and actually started buying them. Basically, most of the world is reliant, either directly or indirectly, on a strong dollar. And basically the US is making the world give us free, or heavily discounted, money as a result.

There's a reason why countries with high tariffs usually tend to suck. They tend to fight to keep industries that they aren't really competitive in at the expense of industries that they would be better competitors in. It also incentivizes workers to choose paths that aren't the best use of their talents, from an economic standpoint. Think of it as a form of "Dutch Disease".

I know, you're going to throw out China as an example of a country with high tariffs and a growing economy. Protectionism CAN work, but only in countries where the manufacturing value added is completely based upon price. China doesn't really innovate. China just tries to be the lowest cost provider of a good or service. That's great for getting from having a bottom 10 per capita income to a lower middle income pci, but then it always stalls. Because that game only works when your workers are making crap money. The reason China's growth has pretty much stalled is because they're reaching a stage of development where competing with Bangladesh on price is no longer much of an economic driver (to say nothing of a way out of poverty for the 800 million Chinese who live in households making less (usually far less) than 10,000 USD per year). To grow from a cheap manufacturer of basic goods to a middle income or developed economy, a transition has to take place where low cost manufacturing is substituted with value added manufacturing, innovation, and value added service provision. Japan and Korea made that transition. China? Not so much.

Yes, it can go too far, and yes, there will be winners and losers (especially workers in mature industries) from it, but there are definitely winners from our current low tariff policy. And I'd argue that the economy is better off as a result.

Oh, and the USA is a huge exporter of services, such as Consulting, Finance, etc. This really is where a lot of the higher paying jobs are and where much more value is for the American economy. That, too, can be a subject to what effectively can be called tariffs.

---


So Trump's economic policy appears to be doubling down on 150 year old technologies (Coal, Internal Combustion Engines, Steel) at the expense of innovative technologies that will grow our country at a faster rate. We're never going to be cheaper than Brazil or China or India on those things (at least I hope not - it would mean our workers would be making less than those counterparts), so I see no problem with letting them provide a greater share of those inputs at a lower price than we could make them ourselves....and....giving us heavily discounted money to buy them.

Here's the thing. You are looking at Chinese steel dumping as essentially thier government subsidizing end products in the US. Thats true. It does do that.

However, you need to ask the question---why would any government do that?

The answer is they dont see it as subsidizing your end products. They see it as BUYING your manufacturing base. It just takes awhile.

LOL. Another fun fact about mature industries. Like Steel, they're very difficult to monopolize. So China can try all they want to monopolize it.. Currently we import 2.3% of our steel imports from China. We can get t-shirts from any number of countries.

China subsidizes exports because they never figured out a way out of the dollar trap (or Euro trap) that impacts every single country that tries to manufacture their way from low income to high income. During phase 1, the poor but manufacturing country will run a trade surplus with the world. If they don't have a floating currency, they'll have to keep that surplus effectively in a foreign currency. China now has too many dollars and an economy where its so damn big that it requires them to keep exporting to the USA and Europe. They keep giving us discounted stuff because the alternative would be to destroy their economy

When people play the "China is an economic threat to the USA" card. I always like to ask them to pretend they're the head of the Bank of China and just try to do anything to the US that doesn't destroy their economy.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 01:02 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 01:02 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Globalist Having A Meltdown Over Steel
Right now China desperately needs the US Navy to protect their oil supply line to the Middle East. They have zero ability to secure their own oil supply, without which they are serious trouble. And that serious trouble is spelled zero economy and widespread famine.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 01:12 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
03-07-2018 01:08 PM
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