Just in case your Monday wasn't going smoothly, here's this...

What's FPI again?
For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the abridged version is that factors used in the preseason model include:
-Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
-Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall, and on defense
-Whether a team has a returning head coach
-Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

AAC Rankings:
46 – Memphis
53 – UCF
62 – Houston
64 – USF
77 - Tulane
78 – Navy
81 – Temple
86 – Tulsa
90 – SMU
94 – Cindy
110 – ECU
119 - UConn

After finishing with 3 teams in the top 25, it's only natural that we'd have a preseason ceiling of 46, cuz reasons.

Full article: Some Booooollsh***

(03-12-2018 02:29 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Just in case your Monday wasn't going smoothly, here's this...

What's FPI again?
For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the abridged version is that factors used in the preseason model include:
-Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
-Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall, and on defense
-Whether a team has a returning head coach
-Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

AAC Rankings:
46 – Memphis
53 – UCF
62 – Houston
64 – USF
77 - Tulane
78 – Navy
81 – Temple
86 – Tulsa
90 – SMU
94 – Cindy
110 – ECU
119 - UConn

After finishing with 3 teams in the top 25, it's only natural that we'd have a preseason ceiling of 46, cuz reasons.

Full article: Some Booooollsh***

Boy, UCF must have REALLY pissed off the monopoly to have them come out with those eff you ratings.

(03-12-2018 02:29 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Just in case your Monday wasn't going smoothly, here's this...

What's FPI again?
For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the abridged version is that factors used in the preseason model include:
-Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
-Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall, and on defense
-Whether a team has a returning head coach
-Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

AAC Rankings:
46 – Memphis
53 – UCF
62 – Houston
64 – USF
77 - Tulane
78 – Navy
81 – Temple
86 – Tulsa
90 – SMU
94 – Cindy
110 – ECU
119 - UConn

After finishing with 3 teams in the top 25, it's only natural that we'd have a preseason ceiling of 46, cuz reasons.

Full article: Some Booooollsh***

ESPN pushing their G5 narrative to keep media rights deal low. No surprises here.

(03-12-2018 02:56 PM)fishpro1098 Wrote:  

(03-12-2018 02:29 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Just in case your Monday wasn't going smoothly, here's this...

What's FPI again?
For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the abridged version is that factors used in the preseason model include:
-Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
-Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall, and on defense
-Whether a team has a returning head coach
-Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

AAC Rankings:
46 – Memphis
53 – UCF
62 – Houston
64 – USF
77 - Tulane
78 – Navy
81 – Temple
86 – Tulsa
90 – SMU
94 – Cindy
110 – ECU
119 - UConn

After finishing with 3 teams in the top 25, it's only natural that we'd have a preseason ceiling of 46, cuz reasons.

Full article: Some Booooollsh***

ESPN pushing their G5 narrative to keep media rights deal low. No surprises here.

The stupid thing is that they tout on their instructional video how accurate FPI is. I wonder if they mean FPI now, or adjusted FPI 2 minutes before kickoff.

Either way, I want the math. I want to know if it's based solely on the 4 factors listed above with consistent weighting for every team, or if they are monkeying with the numbers to get the results they want.

I am surprised that UCF is not first.

They're fixing the glitch.

If all AAC teams start out the season unranked, it makes it immensely harder to climb into consideration for top 4 even if you go unbeaten.

(03-12-2018 02:39 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  

(03-12-2018 02:29 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Just in case your Monday wasn't going smoothly, here's this...

What's FPI again?
For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the abridged version is that factors used in the preseason model include:
-Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
-Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall, and on defense
-Whether a team has a returning head coach
-Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

AAC Rankings:
46 – Memphis
53 – UCF
62 – Houston
64 – USF
77 - Tulane
78 – Navy
81 – Temple
86 – Tulsa
90 – SMU
94 – Cindy
110 – ECU
119 - UConn

After finishing with 3 teams in the top 25, it's only natural that we'd have a preseason ceiling of 46, cuz reasons.

Full article: Some Booooollsh***

Boy, UCF must have REALLY pissed off the monopoly to have them come out with those eff you ratings.

you shouldn't really take it too seriously. even after UCF beat Auburn, they still ranked below them in the FPI.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...eamratings

this is more useful for gambling.

ESPNs FPI
2017 Final ranking vs Preseason 2017
UCF 15 vs 63
Memphis 30 vs 43
USF 44 vs 51
Navy 54 vs 71
Houston 56 vs 59
SMU 72 vs 79
Temple 79 vs 82
Tulane 83 vs 78
Tulsa 89 vs 67
Cincinnati 106 vs 90
Connecticut 115 vs 120
ECU 116 vs 97

Top 7 AAC teams all outperformed the prediction, by an average of 14 spots.
4 of the bottom 5 underperformed prediction, by a similar average of 15.5 spots

By comparison, eight of their preseason top ten finished in the top ten. The average miss in the top 25 (absolute value, no +/-) was only 8.76 spots, and that was skewed by Tennessee underperforming by 53 spots and Florida by 35