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Lord Stanley Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Texas Primaries
I enjoy political victories at the expense of Democrats.
03-07-2018 03:31 PM
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Post: #22
RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 12:48 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:33 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  [quote='UTSAMarineVet09' pid='15140657' dateline='1520443223']
I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.

That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.

Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.

Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40.

Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.

you did not make any predictions on post #4?
[/quote

I thought you were complaining about my post on turnout

LOL. I did. There will be exactly 1 Republican representing Harris County at large after this election. Every single other countywide official is going to lose. Every single judge (save Ed Emmitt - he's the one that will hold on to his seat) will lose. County Treasurer. County Clerk. Every single at large seat save County Judge.

CD-7 is probably flipping too. Especially when you realize that while pretty much everyone who is voting in the Dem primary will vote for whoever the Dem is and that the voters who voted against Culburtson in the Republican primary wont be supporting Culbertson - they're Democrats who voted in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing it. This whole DCCC vs Moser isn't really going anywhere either. She won't win and her supporters will still support Fletcher. And if she does win, everyone will support her as well. Remember, Republicans are supposed to outperform in primaries. Culbertson had a very bad night.

CD-23 is probably gone too. That district is just going to be a very hard retention in 2018. Its 75% minority. And Hurd had a hard time carrying it last time. Any movement to the Dems is fatal to him.

CD-32 is looking pretty good for a pickup at this point. Its a legit 50-50 district, but that's a real flip opportunity even now.

You guys did pull CD-2 off the table for now. Gosh, Kath-a-leen Wall would have been a gift from heaven for the Democrats.

Culberson is more likely to get back up to 60% than he is to lose. He got 56% with the Trump albatross in 2016 in a solid, but moderate Republican district. Republicans can take district 7, the district of George HW Bush (67-71) and Bill Archer (71-01) and Culberson since to the bank.
03-07-2018 03:57 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 03:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:48 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:33 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  [quote='UTSAMarineVet09' pid='15140657' dateline='1520443223']
I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.

That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.

Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.

Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40.

Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.

you did not make any predictions on post #4?
[/quote

I thought you were complaining about my post on turnout

LOL. I did. There will be exactly 1 Republican representing Harris County at large after this election. Every single other countywide official is going to lose. Every single judge (save Ed Emmitt - he's the one that will hold on to his seat) will lose. County Treasurer. County Clerk. Every single at large seat save County Judge.

CD-7 is probably flipping too. Especially when you realize that while pretty much everyone who is voting in the Dem primary will vote for whoever the Dem is and that the voters who voted against Culburtson in the Republican primary wont be supporting Culbertson - they're Democrats who voted in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing it. This whole DCCC vs Moser isn't really going anywhere either. She won't win and her supporters will still support Fletcher. And if she does win, everyone will support her as well. Remember, Republicans are supposed to outperform in primaries. Culbertson had a very bad night.

CD-23 is probably gone too. That district is just going to be a very hard retention in 2018. Its 75% minority. And Hurd had a hard time carrying it last time. Any movement to the Dems is fatal to him.

CD-32 is looking pretty good for a pickup at this point. Its a legit 50-50 district, but that's a real flip opportunity even now.

You guys did pull CD-2 off the table for now. Gosh, Kath-a-leen Wall would have been a gift from heaven for the Democrats.

Culberson is more likely to get back up to 60% than he is to lose. He got 56% with the Trump albatross in 2016 in a solid, but moderate Republican district. Republicans can take district 7, the district of George HW Bush (67-71) and Bill Archer (71-01) and Culberson since to the bank.

LOL. The 23% percent who voted against him in the GOP Primary were Democrats voting in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing so.

To the bank? That's a bold statement. LOL. He got 56% against James Cargas in 2016. I know James. He's nice, but he's not a serious candidate. Basically he got 56% running against a random name on the ballot. He had no money either (btw, half the Dems running against Culbertson are raising money faster than he is). BTW, he ran yesterday as well for the Dem nomination. He came in dead last out of 7 candidates, gaining exactly 2 percent of the vote. As a 2 time nominee, that should give you an idea how formidable Cargas is as a campaigner. 56% against that competition, even in a Clinton +2 district isn't exactly a sign of strength. Culberson has two very tough candidates running in the Dem runoff that are going to be VERY well funded and both of them are VERY tough campaigners. There are lots of Republicans living in that district that don't like Culbertson AND his district is gaining thousands of new voters each month (and they don't appear to be Trumpers either - a lot of the new residents of the district are coming from out of state). He's no moderate, but a doctrinaire right winger that has the added detraction of not being particularly liked by the Trumpers either. One potential mitigation is that while Lupe Valdez at the top of the ticket helps the Dems elsewhere, White would be better in CD-7. But either way, I think any rational view of that result last night for Culbertson would be that he's in as much trouble as we're saying he is. Only thing that helped him was that Weston didn't make the Dem runoff. But I think that means Fletcher, who is really polished and will outraise him, is likely to be the nominee.

We shall see in November, but I'm feeling really good about the Dems chances in that district. Heck, the GOP primary (which featured a really, really, really nasty race for State Rep in it - that drew in LOTS of voters - and a LOT of voters that have no intention of voting for Culbertson in November) only outdrew the Dem primary in the district by 2 percent. And in District 7, which has historically been VERY Conservative, that's an amazing development.

60%? No way. 56%? No way. 50.1%? Unlikely, but possible.

Basically last night took CD-2 further away from a pickup. But I think CD-32 went closer to a pickup and CD-23 is still looking dire (and by dire - I mean REALLY dire) for the GOP. CD-7, I'd say its somewhere between 'lean Dem' and 'likely Dem' at this point.

----

BTW, I'm just chuckling thinking of, in the unlikely case that Culbertson hangs on through 2021 in that district, how the Texas GOP intends to gerrymander the Heights/Montrose/Galleria/Bellaire to try and keep Anglo Dems from having a seat in Congress. TX-2 is getting more Hispanic in its north. so keeping the Heights/Montrose portion of it in that district isn't going to work on a 10 year redistrict. TX-7 can't afford any more Democratic voters. The VRA will prevent much more dilution of Ron Green's, Lee's, or Gene Green's seats either. And TX-10 is kind of looking tenuous too going forward (not this year, unless there's a truly massive blue wave - but in 2 or 3 cycles - sure). Olsen's district is experiencing Demographic changes too. My guess is that some of the surrounding district's Congressmen (and candidates) actually WANT the Dems to take the seat, because otherwise there's going to be a death fight to try and avoid having Houston West of Downtown and East of the Beltway in their districts. Then they can just pack all their Anglo Dem voters into that seat and try to save themselves.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 04:39 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 04:06 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 04:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 03:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:48 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:33 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  [quote='UTSAMarineVet09' pid='15140657' dateline='1520443223']
I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.

That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.

Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.

Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40.

Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.

you did not make any predictions on post #4?
[/quote

I thought you were complaining about my post on turnout

LOL. I did. There will be exactly 1 Republican representing Harris County at large after this election. Every single other countywide official is going to lose. Every single judge (save Ed Emmitt - he's the one that will hold on to his seat) will lose. County Treasurer. County Clerk. Every single at large seat save County Judge.

CD-7 is probably flipping too. Especially when you realize that while pretty much everyone who is voting in the Dem primary will vote for whoever the Dem is and that the voters who voted against Culburtson in the Republican primary wont be supporting Culbertson - they're Democrats who voted in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing it. This whole DCCC vs Moser isn't really going anywhere either. She won't win and her supporters will still support Fletcher. And if she does win, everyone will support her as well. Remember, Republicans are supposed to outperform in primaries. Culbertson had a very bad night.

CD-23 is probably gone too. That district is just going to be a very hard retention in 2018. Its 75% minority. And Hurd had a hard time carrying it last time. Any movement to the Dems is fatal to him.

CD-32 is looking pretty good for a pickup at this point. Its a legit 50-50 district, but that's a real flip opportunity even now.

You guys did pull CD-2 off the table for now. Gosh, Kath-a-leen Wall would have been a gift from heaven for the Democrats.

Culberson is more likely to get back up to 60% than he is to lose. He got 56% with the Trump albatross in 2016 in a solid, but moderate Republican district. Republicans can take district 7, the district of George HW Bush (67-71) and Bill Archer (71-01) and Culberson since to the bank.

LOL. The 23% percent who voted against him in the GOP Primary were Democrats voting in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing so.

To the bank? That's a bold statement. LOL. He got 56% against James Cargas in 2016. I know James. He's nice, but he's not a serious candidate. Basically he got 56% running against a random name on the ballot. He had no money either (btw, half the Dems running against Culbertson are raising money faster than he is). There are lots of Republicans living in that district that don't like Culbertson AND his district is gaining thousands of new voters each month (and they don't appear to be Trumpers either). He's no moderate, but a doctrinaire right winger that has the added detraction of not being particularly liked by the Trumpers either.

We shall see in November, but I'm feeling really good about the Dems chances in that district. Heck, the GOP primary (which featured a really, really, really nasty race for State Rep in it - that drew in LOTS of voters - and a LOT of voters that have no intention of voting for Culbertson in November) only outdrew the Dem primary in the district by 2 percent. And in District 7, which has historically been VERY Conservative, that's an amazing development.

60%? No way. 56%? No way. 50.1%? Unlikely, but possible.

He got 60% in 2014 and 64% in 2012. I lived in 7 for many years. He's to the right of a lot of the district (including me), and he's no George HW Bush or Bill Archer, but he's "right" on the right issues. The district is not going to vote for a Democrat and you've really got nothing but wishful thinking and lots of solid Republicans who didn't vote for Trump but who have and will continue to vote for Culberson.
03-07-2018 04:12 PM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Texas Primaries
Tom, your style of analysis went out the door with Trump's victory. There is a new political playbook and it doesn't have even one chapter on what you are writing about.....
03-07-2018 04:19 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 04:19 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Tom, your style of analysis went out the door with Trump's victory. There is a new political playbook and it doesn't have even one chapter on what you are writing about.....

Nationalists, social cultural warriors, and flat earth trade protectionists aren't really part of the dynamic in CD-7. Its an Anglo district, but one that rebukes the Christian Right, voted for Clinton, and is highly educated too.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 05:09 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 04:43 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 04:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 04:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 03:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:48 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:33 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.

Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.

Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40.

Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.

you did not make any predictions on post #4?
[/quote

I thought you were complaining about my post on turnout

LOL. I did. There will be exactly 1 Republican representing Harris County at large after this election. Every single other countywide official is going to lose. Every single judge (save Ed Emmitt - he's the one that will hold on to his seat) will lose. County Treasurer. County Clerk. Every single at large seat save County Judge.

CD-7 is probably flipping too. Especially when you realize that while pretty much everyone who is voting in the Dem primary will vote for whoever the Dem is and that the voters who voted against Culburtson in the Republican primary wont be supporting Culbertson - they're Democrats who voted in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing it. This whole DCCC vs Moser isn't really going anywhere either. She won't win and her supporters will still support Fletcher. And if she does win, everyone will support her as well. Remember, Republicans are supposed to outperform in primaries. Culbertson had a very bad night.

CD-23 is probably gone too. That district is just going to be a very hard retention in 2018. Its 75% minority. And Hurd had a hard time carrying it last time. Any movement to the Dems is fatal to him.

CD-32 is looking pretty good for a pickup at this point. Its a legit 50-50 district, but that's a real flip opportunity even now.

You guys did pull CD-2 off the table for now. Gosh, Kath-a-leen Wall would have been a gift from heaven for the Democrats.

Culberson is more likely to get back up to 60% than he is to lose. He got 56% with the Trump albatross in 2016 in a solid, but moderate Republican district. Republicans can take district 7, the district of George HW Bush (67-71) and Bill Archer (71-01) and Culberson since to the bank.

LOL. The 23% percent who voted against him in the GOP Primary were Democrats voting in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing so.

To the bank? That's a bold statement. LOL. He got 56% against James Cargas in 2016. I know James. He's nice, but he's not a serious candidate. Basically he got 56% running against a random name on the ballot. He had no money either (btw, half the Dems running against Culbertson are raising money faster than he is). There are lots of Republicans living in that district that don't like Culbertson AND his district is gaining thousands of new voters each month (and they don't appear to be Trumpers either). He's no moderate, but a doctrinaire right winger that has the added detraction of not being particularly liked by the Trumpers either.

We shall see in November, but I'm feeling really good about the Dems chances in that district. Heck, the GOP primary (which featured a really, really, really nasty race for State Rep in it - that drew in LOTS of voters - and a LOT of voters that have no intention of voting for Culbertson in November) only outdrew the Dem primary in the district by 2 percent. And in District 7, which has historically been VERY Conservative, that's an amazing development.

60%? No way. 56%? No way. 50.1%? Unlikely, but possible.

He got 60% in 2014 and 64% in 2012. I lived in 7 for many years. He's to the right of a lot of the district (including me), and he's no George HW Bush or Bill Archer, but he's "right" on the right issues. The district is not going to vote for a Democrat and you've really got nothing but wishful thinking and lots of solid Republicans who didn't vote for Trump but who have and will continue to vote for Culberson.

Yes, against a hapless candidate (handing out scrawled business cards as his campaign literature) with no money, he got 64% in 2012, 60% in 2014, 56% in 2016. He'll be facing a well funded, much more polished and serious candidate this time. We shall see. I strongly suspect it will be you who will be surprised in November. BTW, watch out for the increasing African American vote in the NW part of the district too. Its not just the West Montrose/Galleria/Afton Oaks/Greensway/Bellaire areas that are problems for the GOP. That South of 1-10 corridor in the district is still VERY right wing, but that area really isn't gaining population. Second Baptist might be in that district, but it really no longer represents that district. Neither does Hotze.

By the way, Culbertson hasn't faced a well funded challenger since 2006. That year, also a big Democratic year, and in a district FAR more conservative than his is now.....he got 52%. Most of the people in Afton Oaks now weren't there for the 'no rail on Richmond' movement in 2006 and could care less if rail gets built anyway. That's what saved him last time. There's no local issue like that to exploit this time.

And Culbertson has fundraising problems too. In all those years, he never managed to bank a stash for a tough race. Rumor is that he's a lazy campaigner too. Now he's in a real fight, and I suspect the big shots aren't going to want to invest in a district that is going to be VERY expensive to play in. Furthermore, the fact that the neighboring district TX-2 isn't in play is going to deter the big money outsiders from getting too involved in this race. Too much expense for just one seat when there are far cheaper ways to spend that money. BTW, the Dems, who are largely raising the money from within the district, WILL make it rain for Fletcher or Moser. How did he spend half a million in the primary? WTF did he buy with that money? Certainly not much that I could see. Maybe he blew it all on ads on KSEV and tablecloth inserts at Taste of Texas and buying endorsements on the million different 'pay to play' endorsement cards of dubious value in the GOP Primary (and of even less value in a General election). And 23% of the voters still voted for someone else in his primary. My guess it went to overpriced consultants. His GOTV sucked too. Fletchers GOTV most definitely did not suck.

Basically, Culbertson was running against a random name out of the phone book the last 3 cycles and is down to 56%. Culbertson could win, but 56% is pretty damn near impossible barring some sort of scandal.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 05:17 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 04:49 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 04:49 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 04:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 04:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 03:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:48 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  you did not make any predictions on post #4?
[/quote

I thought you were complaining about my post on turnout

LOL. I did. There will be exactly 1 Republican representing Harris County at large after this election. Every single other countywide official is going to lose. Every single judge (save Ed Emmitt - he's the one that will hold on to his seat) will lose. County Treasurer. County Clerk. Every single at large seat save County Judge.

CD-7 is probably flipping too. Especially when you realize that while pretty much everyone who is voting in the Dem primary will vote for whoever the Dem is and that the voters who voted against Culburtson in the Republican primary wont be supporting Culbertson - they're Democrats who voted in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing it. This whole DCCC vs Moser isn't really going anywhere either. She won't win and her supporters will still support Fletcher. And if she does win, everyone will support her as well. Remember, Republicans are supposed to outperform in primaries. Culbertson had a very bad night.

CD-23 is probably gone too. That district is just going to be a very hard retention in 2018. Its 75% minority. And Hurd had a hard time carrying it last time. Any movement to the Dems is fatal to him.

CD-32 is looking pretty good for a pickup at this point. Its a legit 50-50 district, but that's a real flip opportunity even now.

You guys did pull CD-2 off the table for now. Gosh, Kath-a-leen Wall would have been a gift from heaven for the Democrats.

Culberson is more likely to get back up to 60% than he is to lose. He got 56% with the Trump albatross in 2016 in a solid, but moderate Republican district. Republicans can take district 7, the district of George HW Bush (67-71) and Bill Archer (71-01) and Culberson since to the bank.

LOL. The 23% percent who voted against him in the GOP Primary were Democrats voting in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing so.

To the bank? That's a bold statement. LOL. He got 56% against James Cargas in 2016. I know James. He's nice, but he's not a serious candidate. Basically he got 56% running against a random name on the ballot. He had no money either (btw, half the Dems running against Culbertson are raising money faster than he is). There are lots of Republicans living in that district that don't like Culbertson AND his district is gaining thousands of new voters each month (and they don't appear to be Trumpers either). He's no moderate, but a doctrinaire right winger that has the added detraction of not being particularly liked by the Trumpers either.

We shall see in November, but I'm feeling really good about the Dems chances in that district. Heck, the GOP primary (which featured a really, really, really nasty race for State Rep in it - that drew in LOTS of voters - and a LOT of voters that have no intention of voting for Culbertson in November) only outdrew the Dem primary in the district by 2 percent. And in District 7, which has historically been VERY Conservative, that's an amazing development.

60%? No way. 56%? No way. 50.1%? Unlikely, but possible.

He got 60% in 2014 and 64% in 2012. I lived in 7 for many years. He's to the right of a lot of the district (including me), and he's no George HW Bush or Bill Archer, but he's "right" on the right issues. The district is not going to vote for a Democrat and you've really got nothing but wishful thinking and lots of solid Republicans who didn't vote for Trump but who have and will continue to vote for Culberson.

Yes, against a hapless candidate (handing out scrawled business cards as his campaign literature) with no money, he got 64% in 2012, 60% in 2014, 56% in 2016. He'll be facing a well funded, much more polished and serious candidate this time. We shall see. I strongly suspect it will be you who will be surprised in November. BTW, watch out for the increasing African American vote in the NW part of the district too. Its not just the West Montrose/Galleria/Afton Oaks/Greensway/Bellaire areas that are problems for the GOP. That South of 1-10 corridor in the district is still VERY right wing, but that area really isn't gaining population. Second Baptist might be in that district, but it really no longer represents that district. Neither does Hotze.

By the way, Culbertson hasn't faced a well funded challenger since 2006. That year, also a big Democratic year, and in a district FAR more conservative than his is now.....he got 52%. Most of the people in Afton Oaks now weren't there for the 'no rail on Richmond' movement in 2006 and could care less if rail gets built anyway. That's what saved him last time. There's no local issue like that to exploit this time.

And Culbertson has fundraising problems too. In all those years, he never managed to bank a stash for a tough race. Rumor is that he's a lazy campaigner too. Now he's in a real fight, and I suspect the big shots aren't going to want to invest in a district that is going to be VERY expensive to play in. Furthermore, the fact that the neighboring district TX-2 isn't in play is going to deter the big money outsiders from getting too involved in this race. Too much expense for just one seat when there are far cheaper ways to spend that money. BTW, the Dems, who are largely raising the money from within the district, WILL make it rain for Fletcher or Moser. How did he spend half a million in the primary? WTF did he buy with that money? Certainly not much that I could see. Maybe he blew it all on ads on KSEV and tablecloth inserts at Taste of Texas and buying endorsements on the million different 'pay to play' endorsement cards of dubious value in the GOP Primary (and of even less value in a General election). And 23% of the voters still voted for someone else in his primary. My guess it went to overpriced consultants. His GOTV sucked too. Fletchers GOTV most definitely did not suck.

Basically, Culbertson was running against a random name out of the phone book the last 3 cycles and is down to 56%. Culbertson could win, but 56% is pretty damn near impossible barring some sort of scandal.

Spending 1.2 billion still didn't convince enough people to vote for Hillary. No amount of spending is going to convince someone like me- a moderately conservative professional (which a lot of the voters in that district are) to vote for a Liberal Democrat. Even though Culberson is very right, he isn't offensively so (like Tom Delay could be). It would take a MASSIVE difference in turnout. And as fired up as the Democrats are, their extremism is firing up a lot on the right. And off years are generally better for Republican turnout.
03-07-2018 05:22 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 05:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 04:49 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 04:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 04:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 03:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  Culberson is more likely to get back up to 60% than he is to lose. He got 56% with the Trump albatross in 2016 in a solid, but moderate Republican district. Republicans can take district 7, the district of George HW Bush (67-71) and Bill Archer (71-01) and Culberson since to the bank.

LOL. The 23% percent who voted against him in the GOP Primary were Democrats voting in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing so.

To the bank? That's a bold statement. LOL. He got 56% against James Cargas in 2016. I know James. He's nice, but he's not a serious candidate. Basically he got 56% running against a random name on the ballot. He had no money either (btw, half the Dems running against Culbertson are raising money faster than he is). There are lots of Republicans living in that district that don't like Culbertson AND his district is gaining thousands of new voters each month (and they don't appear to be Trumpers either). He's no moderate, but a doctrinaire right winger that has the added detraction of not being particularly liked by the Trumpers either.

We shall see in November, but I'm feeling really good about the Dems chances in that district. Heck, the GOP primary (which featured a really, really, really nasty race for State Rep in it - that drew in LOTS of voters - and a LOT of voters that have no intention of voting for Culbertson in November) only outdrew the Dem primary in the district by 2 percent. And in District 7, which has historically been VERY Conservative, that's an amazing development.

60%? No way. 56%? No way. 50.1%? Unlikely, but possible.

He got 60% in 2014 and 64% in 2012. I lived in 7 for many years. He's to the right of a lot of the district (including me), and he's no George HW Bush or Bill Archer, but he's "right" on the right issues. The district is not going to vote for a Democrat and you've really got nothing but wishful thinking and lots of solid Republicans who didn't vote for Trump but who have and will continue to vote for Culberson.

Yes, against a hapless candidate (handing out scrawled business cards as his campaign literature) with no money, he got 64% in 2012, 60% in 2014, 56% in 2016. He'll be facing a well funded, much more polished and serious candidate this time. We shall see. I strongly suspect it will be you who will be surprised in November. BTW, watch out for the increasing African American vote in the NW part of the district too. Its not just the West Montrose/Galleria/Afton Oaks/Greensway/Bellaire areas that are problems for the GOP. That South of 1-10 corridor in the district is still VERY right wing, but that area really isn't gaining population. Second Baptist might be in that district, but it really no longer represents that district. Neither does Hotze.

By the way, Culbertson hasn't faced a well funded challenger since 2006. That year, also a big Democratic year, and in a district FAR more conservative than his is now.....he got 52%. Most of the people in Afton Oaks now weren't there for the 'no rail on Richmond' movement in 2006 and could care less if rail gets built anyway. That's what saved him last time. There's no local issue like that to exploit this time.

And Culbertson has fundraising problems too. In all those years, he never managed to bank a stash for a tough race. Rumor is that he's a lazy campaigner too. Now he's in a real fight, and I suspect the big shots aren't going to want to invest in a district that is going to be VERY expensive to play in. Furthermore, the fact that the neighboring district TX-2 isn't in play is going to deter the big money outsiders from getting too involved in this race. Too much expense for just one seat when there are far cheaper ways to spend that money. BTW, the Dems, who are largely raising the money from within the district, WILL make it rain for Fletcher or Moser. How did he spend half a million in the primary? WTF did he buy with that money? Certainly not much that I could see. Maybe he blew it all on ads on KSEV and tablecloth inserts at Taste of Texas and buying endorsements on the million different 'pay to play' endorsement cards of dubious value in the GOP Primary (and of even less value in a General election). And 23% of the voters still voted for someone else in his primary. My guess it went to overpriced consultants. His GOTV sucked too. Fletchers GOTV most definitely did not suck.

Basically, Culbertson was running against a random name out of the phone book the last 3 cycles and is down to 56%. Culbertson could win, but 56% is pretty damn near impossible barring some sort of scandal.

Spending 1.2 billion still didn't convince enough people to vote for Hillary. No amount of spending is going to convince someone like me- a moderately conservative professional (which a lot of the voters in that district are) to vote for a Liberal Democrat. Even though Culberson is very right, he isn't offensively so (like Tom Delay could be). It would take a MASSIVE difference in turnout. And as fired up as the Democrats are, their extremism is firing up a lot on the right. And off years are generally better for Republican turnout.

You are correct, off years are USUALLY better for Republican turnout. But the Dems came within 4,000 votes of outdrawing the GOP in the primary (where its even more of an advantage for the GOP) in CD7 and that's before you factor in the impact of all of those Democrats voting in the GOP Primary to help Sarah Davis fend off Dopukil. Texas' Democratic primary results were mildly disappointing in some parts of the state (although they certainly showed a dramatic increase in participation by Dems). Those results were definitely not disappointing in CD7. Or really in Harris County in general. Sometimes the percentage voting against a GOP incumbent are usually from right wingers who want to send a message to the candidate and who will certainly vote for that candidate against a Democrat. Yesterday, in CD7, that wasn't the case. That 23 percent voting against Culbertson represented a lot of Davis voters, who will crawl over broken glass to vote for Fletcher or Moser.


Look at it this way. In 2016, the Democratic and Republican primary voter turnout in District 7 was as follows. Democratic voters....~36,000 Republican voters ~78,000. So the GOP beat the Dems in primary turnout by a 69-31 margin (by the way, there was a contested and contentious Dem primary that year for President). Culbertson, running against a very weak candidate converted that into a 56-44 win. This year, the primary voting totals in the district were as follows: Democrats 34,107 and Republicans 38,044. So roughly a 53-47% split. And we most certainly know that the GOP primary number, unlike the Democratic one, included a significant number of crossover voters with no intention of voting for Culbertson in the general (some Davis voters). Combine that MASSIVE drop in primary margin, Culbertson's money woes, plus a much better candidate for the Dems, and the Trump environment - which is not very popular in CD7....And I don't see that as encouraging for Culbertson. If anything, he probably had the worst night of any GOP Congressional incumbent in Texas.

Yea, I'd rate CD7 as 'lean Dem' and possibly 'likely Dem'. It would take a LOT to get Culbertson to 56%.

---

By the way, the Texas GOP did have a good night in another Houston area CD, CD-2 (I'm disappointed we won't see Kath-a-leen waste another 50 million of her husbands money on ads extolling Trump, firing a shotgun at the camera, and basically acting like she's the next idiot in the Star Wars Cantina - and still then probably losing to a Democrat because a third of the district is offended by her ads, a third is laughing at the ads, and everyone wants her to just shut the hell up). But in CD-7....It was a very bad result for them.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 05:56 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 05:41 PM
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Kronke Offline
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RE: Texas Primaries
tom, you have to prove to be right about something (anything) before anyone is going to stop to read your walls of text.
03-07-2018 06:02 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 06:02 PM)Kronke Wrote:  tom, you have to prove to be right about something (anything) before anyone is going to stop to read your walls of text.

You're welcome to not comment on it if you'd don't like. All I did was post the numbers from the 2016 and 2018 primaries in CD7 and provide a bit of context. It wouldn't surprise me if you felt that Larry SECEDE Kilgore would be a great fit for CD7.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 06:10 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 06:09 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Texas Primaries
[Image: DXt6DgYWAAA1JU4.jpg]
03-07-2018 07:51 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 12:18 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  LOL. Dem Primary vote was up by 90%. GOP primary vote was up by 15%. In 2016, the GOP primary vote was double that of the Dems, and the GOP only won by single digits.

It can be really hard to judge a general election by a primary. Remember that turnout for primaries is usually way lower than for general elections. Also people vote in opposite parties primaries all the time (in my area, a lot of Democrats voted in the GOP primary so they could vote for Sarah Davis).

The key is the direction of the movement.

I think its pretty clear that TX-7, TX-23, and TX-32 are all still in deep trouble for the GOP. The GOP dodged a bullet in TX-2 when Kath-a-leen Wall lost in her risible attempt to buy a Congressional seat. Harris County is looking like a Dem sweep (Emmitt will keep his seat though - everyone else is probably toast). Fort Bend may flip too.

I did enjoy Rafael Cruz's first attack ad on Beto O'Rourke. Basically attacks Beto for having a nickname.

This race ain't over, but you're free to think it is.

The race was over before O'Rourke even filed to run. Cruz will beat O'Rourke. If they actually have a debate, than Cruz will mop the floor with him in November.

Dems may pick up some seats in the liberal hubs like Houston, but Texas is a very big state, and there are more then enough small town conservatives, like me, to keep Texas very red.

As long as Cruz keeps irritating the establishment RINOs in Washington, he will keep his seat as long as he likes.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2018 06:42 PM by Side Show Joe.)
03-07-2018 09:09 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 07:51 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  [Image: DXt6DgYWAAA1JU4.jpg]

Funny that you mention that. The average age during early voting for the GOP in Texas in the largest 15 counties this year was.....65.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 11:00 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-07-2018 10:59 PM
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 12:18 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The key is the direction of the movement.

I think it obvious that the key is 'getting more votes'.

FTR, the direction of the movement of BOTH was by your own admission, UP. OF COURSE it was up more in the group that had three candidates and lost the last election versus the one that won.

This whole idea that once a trend moves one way, it continues is ridiculous. The left should have learned that after all of the predictions (there are posts by many of these same people alluding to this) talking about how the demographics are all favoring Democrats and that Republicans won't be in power for the next 20+ years.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2018 11:48 PM by Hambone10.)
03-07-2018 11:46 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 11:46 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 12:18 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The key is the direction of the movement.

I think it obvious that the key is 'getting more votes'.

FTR, the direction of the movement of BOTH was by your own admission, UP. OF COURSE it was up more in the group that had three candidates and lost the last election versus the one that won.

This whole idea that once a trend moves one way, it continues is ridiculous. The left should have learned that after all of the predictions (there are posts by many of these same people alluding to this) talking about how the demographics are all favoring Democrats and that Republicans won't be in power for the next 20+ years.

Yes, GOP turnout up (maybe) 15 percent. Dem turnout up 90 percent. That's statewide compared to 2014. In CD7, Dem turnout vs 2014. Up 402.0% percent. GOP turnout vs 2014...Up 0.6%

I don't think you're going to like the results of analysis of increases in Democratic voting between Democratic primaries and the general election versus the Republicans.

Yes, Rafael is still favored, but its not over. And CD23, CD7, and CD32 are looking like tossups or lean Dem seats at this point.

LOL, Trump and his enablers aren't likely to be any more popular in November than they are now. But we will see.

----

Basically Trump managed an EC win by pulling off a 1 in 100 percent chance of losing the popular vote by 3 million and cobbling together an inside straight flush run in selected states. I wouldn't read too much into it either.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2018 12:29 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-08-2018 12:20 AM
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ericsrevenge76 Online
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-07-2018 06:02 PM)Kronke Wrote:  tom, you have to prove to be right about something (anything) before anyone is going to stop to read your walls of text.


Agreed.
03-08-2018 12:24 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-08-2018 12:24 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 06:02 PM)Kronke Wrote:  tom, you have to prove to be right about something (anything) before anyone is going to stop to read your walls of text.


Agreed.

LOL. Thanks for your participation in the thread.
03-08-2018 12:33 AM
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ericsrevenge76 Online
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RE: Texas Primaries
(03-08-2018 12:33 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-08-2018 12:24 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  
(03-07-2018 06:02 PM)Kronke Wrote:  tom, you have to prove to be right about something (anything) before anyone is going to stop to read your walls of text.


Agreed.

LOL. Thanks for your participation in the thread.


LOL. Your welcome.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2018 04:42 AM by ericsrevenge76.)
03-08-2018 04:41 AM
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RE: Texas Primaries
Personally I was disappointed by the results. Beto can still upset Cruz but I certainly have less optimism about that happening than I did earlier in the week. The main issue I see is governor Abbott is very popular and the democrats won't have a strong candidate at the front of the ticket.
03-08-2018 06:57 AM
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