(03-17-2018 10:46 AM)bluesox Wrote:  San Jose state to the big west makes a lot sense with them dropping football.

The time for them to drop was when they played in the WAC not after they gained admittance to the MWC.

(03-17-2018 10:23 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I don’t think Gonzaga is coming either. I think they used the MWC and it’s less than intelligent commissioner to extract concessions from the WCC.

They are coming - it could get derailed, but very unlikely, the train is way to far down the track. What concession is worth it for them. Gonzaga is not is need of money. And the MWC giving Gonzaga a 30% TV share instead of 25% more than covers anything short of the WCC surrendering 50% of the credits earned. But again it's not about the money. The concession Gonzaga wanted was for the bottom 8 schools to invest and grow their programs. None have (Randy Bennett's relative success is not the result of any school investment or big fan base). That cannot be delivered.

The time for negotiation was earlier. At this point they are discussing schedule details. Or to be more honest the underlings are working out the details as Thompson and Few are rather busy at the moment. Of course the P12 officials are pretty much free to work on Soccer.

(03-17-2018 12:12 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:23 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I don’t think Gonzaga is coming either. I think they used the MWC and it’s less than intelligent commissioner to extract concessions from the WCC.

They are coming - it could get derailed, but very unlikely, the train is way to far down the track. What concession is worth it for them. Gonzaga is not is need of money. And the MWC giving Gonzaga a 30% TV share instead of 25% more than covers anything short of the WCC surrendering 50% of the credits earned. But again it's not about the money. The concession Gonzaga wanted was for the bottom 8 schools to invest and grow their programs. None have (Randy Bennett's relative success is not the result of any school investment or big fan base). That cannot be delivered.

The time for negotiation was earlier. At this point they are discussing schedule details. Or to be more honest the underlings are working out the details as Thompson and Few are rather busy at the moment. Of course the P12 officials are pretty much free to work on Soccer.

This.
I don't understand the belief that is any real hard weighing of options on the behalf of Gonzaga.
They aren't going to get some sort of "most favored" status from MWC. The only "hard" thing is determining how to allocate some amount below 1/12th of MWC revenue to Gonzaga. It isn't likely MWC is going to share any CFP/bowl revenue and will need to allocate some amount of the TV deal to Gonzaga.

A decision has to be made regarding whether Gonzaga has to pay to buy equity into the conference and if so, how much.

I suppose there is always a chance that the parties end up too far apart on the value of the MWC's non-football television and how much the value of Gonzaga changes the equity of the conference. Outside of that, some key constituent group at Gonzaga arguing that the institution is breaking from its mission by aligning with a conference of large public schools seems to be the only thing likely to break this.

UTEP is in a tight spot. Ideally they'd like to be tied to both the Front Range schools and Texas schools. They had it for a while in the 16-team WAC; they thought they'd have it again in the aborted C-USA/MWC merger.

An East/West split in C-USA would yield good results for the Miners.

Short term view: "Gonzaga can get a little bit more money by keeping the credits for it's recent run as a concession from the WCC"

Long term view: "Gonzaga needs to look after it's placement after Mark Few's days end, needs higher profile conference with better visibility. WCC past it's prime too with far many weak programs, 7 lower than the top 9 MWC. GU some years one conference tourney loss away from missing NCAA. Weak conference play has been an issue some years in preparing for NCAA tourney level competition after first round."

The money is pretty equal in the short term; more MWC TV, more WCC credit share. But long term MWC teams produce more credits than WCC schools other than Gonzaga (3 to 1.5) meaning Gonzaga will get more and be ahead on credit shares in a few years (they will have collected 2 of the 6 deep run credits if they move immediately, 3 of 6 if delayed a year).

WCC TV money is pretty minimal. Even if Gonzaga is paid a premium. MWC money is similar to AAC, close to 10x that of WCC. If you divide by 4, for a 25% share for Gonzaga you are still look at a minimum of 2x or 3x the media revenue from the conference (preseason payouts the same). Making the Tournament as an at-large, like Wichita State did, effectively pays off the move.

But all that is only money. And I don't think money is the big issue. The big issue is the lack of fan base and investment by WCC programs (save BYU -- who are a threat to move to the B12). What Gonzaga sees is a conference that wants to bethe religious Ivy League of the west coast. If the WCC replaces Gonzaga with say Seattle, that will completely prove the prevailingdirection of the WCC which GU opposes.

The WCC has had the better part of a decade to address the issues, and is now reduced to "what if we give you even more money to stay." If you didn't like the company you were working at and have your heart set on a new job, is a $10,000 a year raise enough to get you to stay and do the same crappy work you hate?

(03-17-2018 10:46 AM)bluesox Wrote:  San Jose state to the big west makes a lot sense with them dropping football.

big west commish just said (to my surprise) that the conference plans to go forward with 11 members. not closing the door on further expansion, but any 12th member would have to be compelling.

San Jose State ain't compelling.

(03-17-2018 03:15 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:46 AM)bluesox Wrote:  San Jose state to the big west makes a lot sense with them dropping football.

big west commish just said (to my surprise) that the conference plans to go forward with 11 members. not closing the door on further expansion, but any 12th member would have to be compelling.

San Jose State ain't compelling.

Surely more compelling than CSUB...?

(03-17-2018 03:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 03:15 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:46 AM)bluesox Wrote:  San Jose state to the big west makes a lot sense with them dropping football.

big west commish just said (to my surprise) that the conference plans to go forward with 11 members. not closing the door on further expansion, but any 12th member would have to be compelling.

San Jose State ain't compelling.

Surely more compelling than CSUB...?

CSUB has an NIT semis appearance and NCAA Tourneament appearance in the last five years. SJSU has a 2-28 and 4-26 season.

And the Birds were just a throw-in to get UCSD

(03-17-2018 03:33 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 03:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 03:15 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:46 AM)bluesox Wrote:  San Jose state to the big west makes a lot sense with them dropping football.

big west commish just said (to my surprise) that the conference plans to go forward with 11 members. not closing the door on further expansion, but any 12th member would have to be compelling.

San Jose State ain't compelling.

Surely more compelling than CSUB...?

CSUB has an NIT semis appearance and NCAA Tourneament appearance in the last five years. SJSU has a 2-28 and 4-26 season.

And the Birds were just a throw-in to get UCSD

Well, it's moot anyway. SJSU won't drop football now.

SJSU isn't going anywhere. The MWC can't get rid of them, just as the Big East can't get rid of DePaul, the A10 of Dusquesne and Fordham, and LaSalle, or the ACC of Wake Forest. These are lottery winners, you have to live with them. EVry conference has one or a few.

We can flip the coin and ask, can the WCC get rid of Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara, Portland, San Diego, and San Francisco who haven't produced a thing for well over a decade? The answer is of course not, you are stuck with whom you have. And in the case of the WCC it is BYU (who want to be in the Big 12) and Gonzaga (who have athletics on par with Academics in their profile) who do not fit, not the other way around.

Such questions are simply stupid to ask. And largely irrelevant. 9 of the 11 MWC schools play in Arenas and the last two years average 8,000 fans per game. 8 of the 10 WCC schools play in gyms and average just over 2,000 fans a game.

One good tournament team in the MWC would see those numbers rise and interest swell. The WCC already has that team, and it just looks like the Big West in attendance. Seattle fits that group, and is exactly why the Zags want to leave. The worry the Zags have is the ability to recruit in the future with that sort of conference. January and February are just killing time until the NCAA. The games are meaningless.

(03-17-2018 03:39 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  SJSU isn't going anywhere. The MWC can't get rid of them, just as the Big East can't get rid of DePaul, the A10 of Dusquesne and Fordham, and LaSalle, or the ACC of Wake Forest. These are lottery winners, you have to live with them. EVry conference has one or a few.

We can flip the coin and ask, can the WCC get rid of Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara, Portland, San Diego, and San Francisco who haven't produced a thing for well over a decade? The answer is of course not, you are stuck with whom you have. And in the case of the WCC it is BYU (who want to be in the Big 12) and Gonzaga (who have athletics on par with Academics in their profile) who do not fit, not the other way around.

Such questions are simply stupid to ask. And largely irrelevant. 9 of the 11 MWC schools play in Arenas and the last two years average 8,000 fans per game. 8 of the 10 WCC schools play in gyms and average just over 2,000 fans a game.

One good tournament team in the MWC would see those numbers rise and interest swell. The WCC already has that team, and it just looks like the Big West in attendance. Seattle fits that group, and is exactly why the Zags want to leave. The worry the Zags have is the ability to recruit in the future with that sort of conference. January and February are just killing time until the NCAA. The games are meaningless.

This may be a stupid question, but where's the line drawn between arenas and gyms? It seems more like a continuum.

Nerdlinger, here's that interview with the commish.

https://m.soundcloud.com/user-829195441/...is-farrell

At the 8:30 mark. "No need to go to 12, but if the right school presented itself - either in California or a near-by state - we'd look into it."

19:25 - "for us to break the mold it would have to be a compelling reason."

leaves room for interpretation.

I would expect Gonzaga to MWC announces in the next 3-4 weeks.

I have a hard time buying that MWC would take BYU without football. Just the principle of the matter.
Only concession I can see MWC making for BYU is a phase-in to accommodate their existing schedules. Bring all sports now, and slowly increasing the number of conference football games until they get up to 8.

BYU doesn't have to be an independent to join the Big XII. They can join MWC and leave, TCU did it with Big East and Big XII.

I don't think its very likely BYU would bend but their choice is WCC sans Gonzaga or go MWC.

(03-17-2018 12:12 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:23 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I don’t think Gonzaga is coming either. I think they used the MWC and it’s less than intelligent commissioner to extract concessions from the WCC.

They are coming - it could get derailed, but very unlikely, the train is way to far down the track. What concession is worth it for them. Gonzaga is not is need of money. And the MWC giving Gonzaga a 30% TV share instead of 25% more than covers anything short of the WCC surrendering 50% of the credits earned. But again it's not about the money. The concession Gonzaga wanted was for the bottom 8 schools to invest and grow their programs. None have (Randy Bennett's relative success is not the result of any school investment or big fan base). That cannot be delivered.

The time for negotiation was earlier. At this point they are discussing schedule details. Or to be more honest the underlings are working out the details as Thompson and Few are rather busy at the moment. Of course the P12 officials are pretty much free to work on Soccer.

We have no idea what Gonzaga wants to do and we have no idea if they are discussing scheduling details. That is pure speculation. Listening to Mark Few in an interview with Doug Gottlieb this week, he mentioned the "changing landscape" in college basketball and if they were going to change conferences, getting to a "bigger platform." It did not sound like he knew when and if that would happen. He mentioned that they have talked to a number of conferences, not just the MWC.

Few keeps talking about the "Gonzaga Brand" and protecting it. If the landscape is indeed changing, a school like Gonzaga cannot get caught sleeping. They will need to find the best place for them to land and that could be the Mountain West, but it might not be and it might not be this year.

Carruthers brought up a "rumor" about the MWC expanding to 16. That would not be for football. There is not enough revenue to make 16 work in football for a G5 conference. That would have to be for basketball and the idea would have to be the creation of some kind of power conference for basketball that was good for 4-5 bids per season. That idea will probably remain a "rumor."

(03-17-2018 04:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I would expect Gonzaga to MWC announces in the next 3-4 weeks.

I have a hard time buying that MWC would take BYU without football. Just the principle of the matter.
Only concession I can see MWC making for BYU is a phase-in to accommodate their existing schedules. Bring all sports now, and slowly increasing the number of conference football games until they get up to 8.

BYU doesn't have to be an independent to join the Big XII. They can join MWC and leave, TCU did it with Big East and Big XII.

I don't think its very likely BYU would bend but their choice is WCC sans Gonzaga or go MWC.

I think the AAC should give them an alternative.

(03-17-2018 04:22 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 12:12 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:23 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I don’t think Gonzaga is coming either. I think they used the MWC and it’s less than intelligent commissioner to extract concessions from the WCC.

They are coming - it could get derailed, but very unlikely, the train is way to far down the track. What concession is worth it for them. Gonzaga is not is need of money. And the MWC giving Gonzaga a 30% TV share instead of 25% more than covers anything short of the WCC surrendering 50% of the credits earned. But again it's not about the money. The concession Gonzaga wanted was for the bottom 8 schools to invest and grow their programs. None have (Randy Bennett's relative success is not the result of any school investment or big fan base). That cannot be delivered.

The time for negotiation was earlier. At this point they are discussing schedule details. Or to be more honest the underlings are working out the details as Thompson and Few are rather busy at the moment. Of course the P12 officials are pretty much free to work on Soccer.

We have no idea what Gonzaga wants to do and we have no idea if they are discussing scheduling details. That is pure speculation. Listening to Mark Few in an interview with Doug Gottlieb this week, he mentioned the "changing landscape" in college basketball and if they were going to change conferences, getting to a "bigger platform." It did not sound like he knew when and if that would happen. He mentioned that they have talked to a number of conferences, not just the MWC.

Few keeps talking about the "Gonzaga Brand" and protecting it. If the landscape is indeed changing, a school like Gonzaga cannot get caught sleeping. They will need to find the best place for them to land and that could be the Mountain West, but it might not be and it might not be this year.

Carruthers brought up a "rumor" about the MWC expanding to 16. That would not be for football. There is not enough revenue to make 16 work in football for a G5 conference. That would have to be for basketball and the idea would have to be the creation of some kind of power conference for basketball that was good for 4-5 bids per season. That idea will probably remain a "rumor."

Agree. 16 sounds unlikley. That said---what if its 16 in basketball and 14 in football?

BYU + UTEP all sports.

New Mexico St and Gonzaga for olympics. My guess is the money might make sense there. Plus--its kinda of an insurance policy that makes it almost impossible the AAC could pry the front range school away from that set up (not that this is major concern at this point).

(03-17-2018 07:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 04:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I would expect Gonzaga to MWC announces in the next 3-4 weeks.

I have a hard time buying that MWC would take BYU without football. Just the principle of the matter.
Only concession I can see MWC making for BYU is a phase-in to accommodate their existing schedules. Bring all sports now, and slowly increasing the number of conference football games until they get up to 8.

BYU doesn't have to be an independent to join the Big XII. They can join MWC and leave, TCU did it with Big East and Big XII.

I don't think its very likely BYU would bend but their choice is WCC sans Gonzaga or go MWC.

I think the AAC should give them an alternative.

I would love to see the American add UNLV and SDSU for all sports. BYU and Gonzaga for everything but football. 14/16 model.

Basketball and olympic sport divisions, roughly you can change the south and north to make one side stronger.

West: SDSU, UNLV, Gonzaga, BYU
Midwest: Houston, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State
South: Tulane, UCF, USF, ECU
North: Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn

(03-17-2018 07:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 04:22 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 12:12 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:23 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I don’t think Gonzaga is coming either. I think they used the MWC and it’s less than intelligent commissioner to extract concessions from the WCC.

They are coming - it could get derailed, but very unlikely, the train is way to far down the track. What concession is worth it for them. Gonzaga is not is need of money. And the MWC giving Gonzaga a 30% TV share instead of 25% more than covers anything short of the WCC surrendering 50% of the credits earned. But again it's not about the money. The concession Gonzaga wanted was for the bottom 8 schools to invest and grow their programs. None have (Randy Bennett's relative success is not the result of any school investment or big fan base). That cannot be delivered.

The time for negotiation was earlier. At this point they are discussing schedule details. Or to be more honest the underlings are working out the details as Thompson and Few are rather busy at the moment. Of course the P12 officials are pretty much free to work on Soccer.

We have no idea what Gonzaga wants to do and we have no idea if they are discussing scheduling details. That is pure speculation. Listening to Mark Few in an interview with Doug Gottlieb this week, he mentioned the "changing landscape" in college basketball and if they were going to change conferences, getting to a "bigger platform." It did not sound like he knew when and if that would happen. He mentioned that they have talked to a number of conferences, not just the MWC.

Few keeps talking about the "Gonzaga Brand" and protecting it. If the landscape is indeed changing, a school like Gonzaga cannot get caught sleeping. They will need to find the best place for them to land and that could be the Mountain West, but it might not be and it might not be this year.

Carruthers brought up a "rumor" about the MWC expanding to 16. That would not be for football. There is not enough revenue to make 16 work in football for a G5 conference. That would have to be for basketball and the idea would have to be the creation of some kind of power conference for basketball that was good for 4-5 bids per season. That idea will probably remain a "rumor."

Agree. 16 sounds unlikley. That said---what if its 16 in basketball and 14 in football?

BYU + UTEP all sports.

New Mexico St and Gonzaga for olympics. My guess is the money might make sense there. Plus--its kinda of an insurance policy that makes it almost impossible the AAC could pry the front range school away from that set up (not that this is major concern at this point).

That's an intriguing idea and might help grease the skids for NMSU getting football games scheduled.

(03-16-2018 04:57 PM)NoDak Wrote:  

(03-16-2018 04:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2018 04:08 PM)NoDak Wrote:  

(03-16-2018 03:49 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  By Office of President | Published March 13, 2018
Chancellor Garrey Carruthers
"While at the WAC Basketball Tournament, I met with the Presidents and Athletic Directors of the WAC schools to discuss business as well as the challenges facing the Conference regarding membership. The WAC is initiating an aggressive membership campaign. Commissioner Jeff Hurd said “something was going to happen and happen soon” regarding conference alignments and realignments. One rumor was the Mountain West would become a 16-member conference with two-8 member divisions. NMSU could come into play as a new member, along with UTEP. "

NMSU Chancellor

Very much doubt that UTEP would want to lose contact with CUSA Texas schools and go to a conference with NMSU. UTEP wouldn’t gain but would be a loser in almost all respects that matter to Presidents.

Not true. UTEP would bolt for the MW in a second.

Maybe UTEPs fans want to bolt, but CUSA schools in Texas are needed. Taking most CUSA Texas schools to the MWC would be the best scenario for UTEP and CUSA. Not sure if that would be good for the MWC.

In the MWC UTEP would have twice as many schools within the same distance as the 3 Texas schools and 7 as their 4th closest in CUSA. Makes perfect sense.

El Paso to (ground miles)
San Antonio - 550
Denton - 640
Houston - Houston - 750
Ruston - 890
Hattiesburg - 1130
Birmingham - 1275
Murfreesboro - 1325

Las Cruces - 45
Albuquerque - 265
Colorado Springs - 640
San Diego - 725
Las Vegas - 726
Fort Collins - 745
Laramie - 845
Reno - 1175


Other than the name of the school UTEP has virtually nothing in common with the rest of Texas.

(03-17-2018 10:23 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 02:30 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Sactowndog,

I just don't think BYU will be coming. I do believe they will have conversations all year long after Gonzaga moves, especially as they head into winter and work with ESPN and maybe CBS, who will be working with the MWC to figure out the next 6 to 8 year TV deals. This will shelve the WCC expansion efforts for a year as they have to wait out BYU's exploration to know what the configuration of the league will be (is it 9 looking for a 10th or 8 looking for possibly two schools, a 9th and a 10th? And do they need to select someone that BYU approves of?)

In the end I think the growing shortness of distance to the end of the Big 12 Grant of Rights and Oklahoma's realignment decision makes it difficult for BYU to commit to a MWC path right away. In three or four years as the picture going forward becomes clearer I think they might decide the B12 path is closed and they should get more serious in talks with the MWC. Money is not a decisive factor, although football independence pays better than MWC membership for all sports, despite the smaller playoff payout. I do think a scheduling agreement will come out of it initially, football kicking in perhaps in 2022, but basketball maybe earlier as a sort of mutual kicking the tires.

Now were BYU to decide to come into the MWC, and the MWC were willing to put off Football membership decision another 4 or so years (given the contractual issues BYU would face), then I am not at all sure the MWC would add anyone for Olympics. They'd live with 13. If odd was a bad enough problem, they might invite a Baseball affiliate, a Softball affiliate, and a Women's Volleyball affiliate (if they can be found) and just live with 13 in Basketball. Since the individual sports are just end of season meets, you really don't care how many you have. Now if and when BYU finally joins in Football, only then would you really have to get serious about a 14th member - realistically that six years out in the future, and the B12 realignment could change everything by then.

I don’t think Gonzaga is coming either. I think they used the MWC and it’s less than intelligent commissioner to extract concessions from the WCC.

If Gonzaga gets concessions they stay in the WCC where they are top dog.

If they do move to the WCC, BYU stays in the WCC as the potential top dog collecting shares of Gonzaga departure funds and shares of the NCAA college credits Gonzaga leaves behind, while their FB program remains independent, to see if there is realignment with the B-12 when the GOR's runs out. In the mean time the MWC remains intact with 12 for FB and 12 for BB and the Olympic Sports.

Down the road if the B12 rejects BYU again they rejoin the MWC for all sports. One of UTEP or NMST are added to get to 14 to balance out BYU's addition. IF NMST is added, CUSA stays at 14. If UTEP is added, NMST joins CUSA to keep balance in the Western Division. A NMST addition to either CUSA or the MWC adds the potential for additional NCAA Tournament bids for the conference that takes them in.

Both NMST and UTEP could be added to the MWC if BYU goes to the B-12 or just flat out rejects the MWC all together down the road. NMST and UTEP in this case get the MWC to 14 for all sports. Doubt this happens though and the MWC stays at 12 for FB, BB, and Olympic Sports with the Hawaii / Gonzaga combo.

The WAC and the WCC should begin exploring the possibility of a merger right now in the event that all of the above goes down over the next several years and then divide into two divisions to keep travel costs down if need be.