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How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #21
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 02:40 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.

Thing is, there's little evidence that the Big 12 has any such problem, as it schools are getting $34m from the conference this year.

And AZ and Arizona State aren't valuable because of state population, but because they are regarded nationally as "big time" schools.

E.g., people here in Baton Rouge don't follow Arizona or Arizona State, probably not 1 in 10 LSU fans could tell you who either of their football coaches are.

But if LSU scheduled either one for a football game, home or away, the reaction from the fan base would be along the lines of "oh, that's a pretty big game, a game against a prominent power from another P5 conference", and they would look forward to it. The AD would get credited with making a good "big time" OOC matchup, as opposed to a low-value throwaway matchup. Ditto if they played either in a bowl game.

In short, AZ and ASU have national respect as big time programs. No, not Alabama or USC level, but big time still.

That's the kind of status that both bring to any table.

Doesnt matter. The rules for adding P5's are the same as adding G5's. The two schools need to bring almost 70 million in TV value just for the Big12 to break even on the addition (otherwise, there isnt any economic incentive to add schools). The Arizona schools curently have a combined media value of closer to 40 million. In order to actually create an incentive to add those two, they actually need to bring something like 85 million in value (and that only provides each current member ONE extra million each---much of which will be eaten up in travel costs). I dont see it---"P5" schools or not. If your adding a Cali school with an Zona school---now you have something.

If the Big12 can continue to get a media payout that is competitive with the other P5's---but only have to divide it (and their other revenue sources) 10 ways rather than 12 or 14 ways----there honestly isnt much economic incentive to add anyone.

My guess is the Big12 stands pat---unless UT and/or Oklahoma leave. I dont think UT will get a better deal elsewhere---and I think the B12 will give Oklahoma a similar sweetheart deal rather than have them leave. If those two DO depart---the dynamic changes significantly and its very unlikely the Arizona schools would be interested in coming on board very diminished B12.


Wrong. It ISN'T the same for P5 and G5.

P5 schools --- fairly or not --- have the perception of being bigger than their G5 counterparts.

If the Big XII could lure 2 Power 5 programs in an expansion, suddenly they go from the weakest perceived P5 conference to one of the strongest.

Not only that, but in this example, when you snag the top 2 schools in a state and that state ranks 15th in population, and the other states in your conference footprint rank 2nd (Texas), 28th (Oklahoma), 30th (Iowa), 34th (Kansas) and 38th (west Virginia) ... you definitely create positive momentum for any kind of media contracts you are negotiating.

Actually, Im completely correct. P5's and G5's have different values. I never said they didnt. What I said is when it comes to realignment, the math is the same for both. Whoever you add has to bring more MEDIA value than the current average amount of the TOTAL PER SCHOOL CONFERENCE PAYOUT or they actually LOWER the total per school payout. Whichever 2 schools are added needs to have a combined media value of about 80 million to make it work.

Average Big12 payoput per school--34 million

Current Media share of Arizona--20 million
Current Media share of Arizona St--20 million

(34 million x 10) + 40=380 million

380 million divided by 12 = 31.66 million per school......thats significantly LESS than the Big12 makes today.

Same calculation with Arizona+Arizona St being worth 80 million works out to 35 million a school....a whole one million dollars a school more than they make today.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2018 03:08 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-18-2018 02:58 PM
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Post: #22
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 10:36 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I was thinking about this for a couple reasons: the Pac-12 has developed a trend of not being very good in basketball the last 8 years or so, and basketball is a big deal to Arizona; the Big 12 TV deal is better than that of the Pac-12; the Arizona schools would get better TV time slots for games; and Texas recruiting markets are better for football than those of California.

2 years ago I wouldn't have given this any thought, but now I start to wonder.


Also, would the Pac-10 even expand at that point? It would seem to be pointless.

Never going to happen. Arizona and Arizona State live on California recruiting. Not just for athletics, but also for students. 11% of Arizona's students come from California. Arizona has six alumni chapters in California alone.

Arizona State recently landed their best recruit (Taeshon Cherry) in basketball since James Harden:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...es-harden/

Both Harden and Cherry are from Southern California. Arizona State had 21 football recruits for their 2018 class. Thirteen are from California, two from Arizona.

The Pac-12 has not developed a trend of not being very good in basketball. They had a bad 2018 for a number of reasons. In 2017, seven schools made the tournament, three made the sweet sixteen and one made the final four. in 2016, seven teams made the NCAA Tournament. Two of the best basketball programs in the country are in the PAC-12 in UCLA and Arizona. They will be fine.

Going forward, Oregon is #2 in basketball recruiting and UCLA #3 in the country according to 247sports. Rivals has UCLA #2 and Oregon #3. Arizona was in the top five, but they have lost their entire recruiting class to the FBI investigation.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2018 04:25 PM by SoCalBobcat78.)
03-18-2018 04:22 PM
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Post: #23
How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
Maybe if Colorado was still in the conference in place of West Virginia and BYU/Utah in place of TCU. The Big 12 would have a western wing in such a case. Otherwise, it makes no sense.
03-18-2018 05:05 PM
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Pervis_Griffith Offline
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Post: #24
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 02:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 02:40 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.

Thing is, there's little evidence that the Big 12 has any such problem, as it schools are getting $34m from the conference this year.

And AZ and Arizona State aren't valuable because of state population, but because they are regarded nationally as "big time" schools.

E.g., people here in Baton Rouge don't follow Arizona or Arizona State, probably not 1 in 10 LSU fans could tell you who either of their football coaches are.

But if LSU scheduled either one for a football game, home or away, the reaction from the fan base would be along the lines of "oh, that's a pretty big game, a game against a prominent power from another P5 conference", and they would look forward to it. The AD would get credited with making a good "big time" OOC matchup, as opposed to a low-value throwaway matchup. Ditto if they played either in a bowl game.

In short, AZ and ASU have national respect as big time programs. No, not Alabama or USC level, but big time still.

That's the kind of status that both bring to any table.

Doesnt matter. The rules for adding P5's are the same as adding G5's. The two schools need to bring almost 70 million in TV value just for the Big12 to break even on the addition (otherwise, there isnt any economic incentive to add schools). The Arizona schools curently have a combined media value of closer to 40 million. In order to actually create an incentive to add those two, they actually need to bring something like 85 million in value (and that only provides each current member ONE extra million each---much of which will be eaten up in travel costs). I dont see it---"P5" schools or not. If your adding a Cali school with an Zona school---now you have something.

If the Big12 can continue to get a media payout that is competitive with the other P5's---but only have to divide it (and their other revenue sources) 10 ways rather than 12 or 14 ways----there honestly isnt much economic incentive to add anyone.

My guess is the Big12 stands pat---unless UT and/or Oklahoma leave. I dont think UT will get a better deal elsewhere---and I think the B12 will give Oklahoma a similar sweetheart deal rather than have them leave. If those two DO depart---the dynamic changes significantly and its very unlikely the Arizona schools would be interested in coming on board very diminished B12.


Wrong. It ISN'T the same for P5 and G5.

P5 schools --- fairly or not --- have the perception of being bigger than their G5 counterparts.

If the Big XII could lure 2 Power 5 programs in an expansion, suddenly they go from the weakest perceived P5 conference to one of the strongest.

Not only that, but in this example, when you snag the top 2 schools in a state and that state ranks 15th in population, and the other states in your conference footprint rank 2nd (Texas), 28th (Oklahoma), 30th (Iowa), 34th (Kansas) and 38th (west Virginia) ... you definitely create positive momentum for any kind of media contracts you are negotiating.

Actually, Im completely correct. P5's and G5's have different values. I never said they didnt. What I said is when it comes to realignment, the math is the same for both. Whoever you add has to bring more MEDIA value than the current average amount of the TOTAL PER SCHOOL CONFERENCE PAYOUT or they actually LOWER the total per school payout. Whichever 2 schools are added needs to have a combined media value of about 80 million to make it work.

Average Big12 payoput per school--34 million

Current Media share of Arizona--20 million
Current Media share of Arizona St--20 million

(34 million x 10) + 40=380 million

380 million divided by 12 = 31.66 million per school......thats significantly LESS than the Big12 makes today.

Same calculation with Arizona+Arizona St being worth 80 million works out to 35 million a school....a whole one million dollars a school more than they make today.


If this was the calculation, the Big XII would never add ANYBODY. If two P5 schools, in the 15th largest state, can't move the needle, then there won't be any G5 schools that can come close.

But if the Big XII had the chance to add Arizona and Arizona State, they would do it in a heartbeat. And I bet the TV partners pony up the money to at least keep them even.


$340 million dollars for a population of 39 million
39 million divided by $340 million is 0.114

$408 million for a population of 46 million
46 million divided by $408 million is 0.112

It's a wash.
03-18-2018 05:17 PM
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Post: #25
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 11:44 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  SDSU will surely be dropping football as they only have an NFL type stadium to play in and are the only major school in that area. Ok.




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The city of San Diego wants to tear it down. SDSU is trying to raise money to get the property. And it all has to go through voters.
03-18-2018 06:36 PM
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Post: #26
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 10:36 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I was thinking about this for a couple reasons: the Pac-12 has developed a trend of not being very good in basketball the last 8 years or so, and basketball is a big deal to Arizona; the Big 12 TV deal is better than that of the Pac-12; the Arizona schools would get better TV time slots for games; and Texas recruiting markets are better for football than those of California.

2 years ago I wouldn't have given this any thought, but now I start to wonder.


Also, would the Pac-10 even expand at that point? It would seem to be pointless.

Short of the California schools leaving the Pac-12, the Arizona schools would have no interest in joining the Big-12. Access to Texas will never be able to replace what they have and depend on from California in terms of recruiting and access to alumni.
03-18-2018 07:56 PM
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Post: #27
How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 02:35 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 02:01 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you dumped the 22 members of the Big 12 and Pac 12 into a bag and pulled out the best 14 or 16 you'd have a pretty nice conference.

Each league is hampered in their efforts to generate revenue by the weaker members. If you had a conference of:

West: Wash, Ore, Cal, Stan, USC, UCLA, Ariz, Ariz St
East: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Okla St, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor

Now that's not a bad league

Trade Baylor for Utah and maybe you've got something there.


This is nuts, first off Oregon State and Wazzu have plenty to say and the PAC 12 is basically perfect as is, each has a travel partner and it all works well. 16 teams would soon cause the whole thing to collapse.


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03-18-2018 08:05 PM
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Post: #28
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
Doesn't the Pac-12 have a grant of rights which would make any Pac-12 school locked into the league?
03-18-2018 08:07 PM
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Post: #29
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 08:07 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Doesn't the Pac-12 have a grant of rights which would make any Pac-12 school locked into the league?
Yes, the Pac-12 has had one in place for a few years now it runs through the remainder of their media rights deal though it is a near certainty to be extended and tied into the next media rights deal they agree to.
03-18-2018 08:34 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #30
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 05:17 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 02:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 02:40 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Thing is, there's little evidence that the Big 12 has any such problem, as it schools are getting $34m from the conference this year.

And AZ and Arizona State aren't valuable because of state population, but because they are regarded nationally as "big time" schools.

E.g., people here in Baton Rouge don't follow Arizona or Arizona State, probably not 1 in 10 LSU fans could tell you who either of their football coaches are.

But if LSU scheduled either one for a football game, home or away, the reaction from the fan base would be along the lines of "oh, that's a pretty big game, a game against a prominent power from another P5 conference", and they would look forward to it. The AD would get credited with making a good "big time" OOC matchup, as opposed to a low-value throwaway matchup. Ditto if they played either in a bowl game.

In short, AZ and ASU have national respect as big time programs. No, not Alabama or USC level, but big time still.

That's the kind of status that both bring to any table.

Doesnt matter. The rules for adding P5's are the same as adding G5's. The two schools need to bring almost 70 million in TV value just for the Big12 to break even on the addition (otherwise, there isnt any economic incentive to add schools). The Arizona schools curently have a combined media value of closer to 40 million. In order to actually create an incentive to add those two, they actually need to bring something like 85 million in value (and that only provides each current member ONE extra million each---much of which will be eaten up in travel costs). I dont see it---"P5" schools or not. If your adding a Cali school with an Zona school---now you have something.

If the Big12 can continue to get a media payout that is competitive with the other P5's---but only have to divide it (and their other revenue sources) 10 ways rather than 12 or 14 ways----there honestly isnt much economic incentive to add anyone.

My guess is the Big12 stands pat---unless UT and/or Oklahoma leave. I dont think UT will get a better deal elsewhere---and I think the B12 will give Oklahoma a similar sweetheart deal rather than have them leave. If those two DO depart---the dynamic changes significantly and its very unlikely the Arizona schools would be interested in coming on board very diminished B12.


Wrong. It ISN'T the same for P5 and G5.

P5 schools --- fairly or not --- have the perception of being bigger than their G5 counterparts.

If the Big XII could lure 2 Power 5 programs in an expansion, suddenly they go from the weakest perceived P5 conference to one of the strongest.

Not only that, but in this example, when you snag the top 2 schools in a state and that state ranks 15th in population, and the other states in your conference footprint rank 2nd (Texas), 28th (Oklahoma), 30th (Iowa), 34th (Kansas) and 38th (west Virginia) ... you definitely create positive momentum for any kind of media contracts you are negotiating.

Actually, Im completely correct. P5's and G5's have different values. I never said they didnt. What I said is when it comes to realignment, the math is the same for both. Whoever you add has to bring more MEDIA value than the current average amount of the TOTAL PER SCHOOL CONFERENCE PAYOUT or they actually LOWER the total per school payout. Whichever 2 schools are added needs to have a combined media value of about 80 million to make it work.

Average Big12 payoput per school--34 million

Current Media share of Arizona--20 million
Current Media share of Arizona St--20 million

(34 million x 10) + 40=380 million

380 million divided by 12 = 31.66 million per school......thats significantly LESS than the Big12 makes today.

Same calculation with Arizona+Arizona St being worth 80 million works out to 35 million a school....a whole one million dollars a school more than they make today.


If this was the calculation, the Big XII would never add ANYBODY. If two P5 schools, in the 15th largest state, can't move the needle, then there won't be any G5 schools that can come close.

But if the Big XII had the chance to add Arizona and Arizona State, they would do it in a heartbeat. And I bet the TV partners pony up the money to at least keep them even.


$340 million dollars for a population of 39 million
39 million divided by $340 million is 0.114

$408 million for a population of 46 million
46 million divided by $408 million is 0.112

It's a wash.

Its not a wash. You simply dont understand that the total conference payout is not the same thing as the media payout. ESPN is paying about 20 million each for the Big12 teams. The rest of that 34 million dollar payout is from CFP, NCAA credits, and other bowl income. That doesnt change because you add 2 teams--it just gets split more ways.

The truth is---these payouts have reached the level where only certain teams make sense as additions anymore--unless you have a conference network to help monetize an addition (like Rutgers and all those NY cable boxes).

You keep thinking im making the argument that a G5 can bring that kind of revenue. It cant. We've already seen that when the B12 nixed expansion. The only way it was going to work in that case was if the network paid full pro-rata share (20 million) for the new teams and the Big12 put the new teams on a graduated share system where they only got say a quarter share in year 1 (then a half share in year 2, etc). Even then---it wasn't really making the existing schools much extra money--and it would actually cost them money once the new teams reached full share status. Since the 2016 Big12/ESPN contract actually required ESPN to pay FULL pro-rata rate for the new team (G5 or P5), the math is basically the same for P5's. It is what it is.

To make it economically worth it for the Big12---you need a Florida or a USC to come calling....because---for the time being, dividing the money pot just 10 ways is paying off big for the Big12.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2018 08:40 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-18-2018 08:36 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #31
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
Is the Big 12 successful in spite of being 10 teams or is the Big 12 successful because it is only 10 teams? The advantages of 10 are becoming more clear. Divide the big ticket items like postseason revenue and tier 1 revenue less ways. The round robin scheduling is also a stabilizing factor. And without a Conference network one of the big reasons to expand- increase your footprint for more “homes”- isn’t there. Not to mention one of the other carrots- the football conf championship game- is gone.

Bottom line- the league is pretty much committed to a 10 team model. It’s working, too.
03-19-2018 07:47 AM
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RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 12:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Big XII would welcome Arizona and Arizona State with open arms.

Just don't see a situation where either thinks that the Big XII is a better fit for who they are academically and athletically than the Pac-12.

Are you joking?
03-19-2018 08:39 AM
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Post: #33
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
Big XII should kick out West Virginia and add BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State and New Mexico.
03-19-2018 08:51 AM
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Post: #34
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 10:36 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I was thinking about this for a couple reasons: the Pac-12 has developed a trend of not being very good in basketball the last 8 years or so, and basketball is a big deal to Arizona; the Big 12 TV deal is better than that of the Pac-12; the Arizona schools would get better TV time slots for games; and Texas recruiting markets are better for football than those of California.

2 years ago I wouldn't have given this any thought, but now I start to wonder.


Also, would the Pac-10 even expand at that point? It would seem to be pointless.

It all depends on whether the PAC gets their act together.

Most of the conferences TV deals expire around 2025 so they should begin negotiating in the next couple years. If the PAC can't strike a deal similar to what the SEC & B1G get, they might be inclined to look. They also might be inclined to look if the PAC Network can't strike a deal or find a distribution partner to put them on par with the other conference networks.

We all know that the bottom line is that $$ talks and BS walks. If the new deals being struck appear to leave the PAC in the rear-view mirror, don't be surprised if the phone starts ringing to other conferences. I can't see UA/ASU (of USC for that matter...) sitting pat with making 10's of millions less than their colleagues in other conferences.
03-19-2018 09:15 AM
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Post: #35
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 08:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 05:17 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 02:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 02:40 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Doesnt matter. The rules for adding P5's are the same as adding G5's. The two schools need to bring almost 70 million in TV value just for the Big12 to break even on the addition (otherwise, there isnt any economic incentive to add schools). The Arizona schools curently have a combined media value of closer to 40 million. In order to actually create an incentive to add those two, they actually need to bring something like 85 million in value (and that only provides each current member ONE extra million each---much of which will be eaten up in travel costs). I dont see it---"P5" schools or not. If your adding a Cali school with an Zona school---now you have something.

If the Big12 can continue to get a media payout that is competitive with the other P5's---but only have to divide it (and their other revenue sources) 10 ways rather than 12 or 14 ways----there honestly isnt much economic incentive to add anyone.

My guess is the Big12 stands pat---unless UT and/or Oklahoma leave. I dont think UT will get a better deal elsewhere---and I think the B12 will give Oklahoma a similar sweetheart deal rather than have them leave. If those two DO depart---the dynamic changes significantly and its very unlikely the Arizona schools would be interested in coming on board very diminished B12.


Wrong. It ISN'T the same for P5 and G5.

P5 schools --- fairly or not --- have the perception of being bigger than their G5 counterparts.

If the Big XII could lure 2 Power 5 programs in an expansion, suddenly they go from the weakest perceived P5 conference to one of the strongest.

Not only that, but in this example, when you snag the top 2 schools in a state and that state ranks 15th in population, and the other states in your conference footprint rank 2nd (Texas), 28th (Oklahoma), 30th (Iowa), 34th (Kansas) and 38th (west Virginia) ... you definitely create positive momentum for any kind of media contracts you are negotiating.

Actually, Im completely correct. P5's and G5's have different values. I never said they didnt. What I said is when it comes to realignment, the math is the same for both. Whoever you add has to bring more MEDIA value than the current average amount of the TOTAL PER SCHOOL CONFERENCE PAYOUT or they actually LOWER the total per school payout. Whichever 2 schools are added needs to have a combined media value of about 80 million to make it work.

Average Big12 payoput per school--34 million

Current Media share of Arizona--20 million
Current Media share of Arizona St--20 million

(34 million x 10) + 40=380 million

380 million divided by 12 = 31.66 million per school......thats significantly LESS than the Big12 makes today.

Same calculation with Arizona+Arizona St being worth 80 million works out to 35 million a school....a whole one million dollars a school more than they make today.


If this was the calculation, the Big XII would never add ANYBODY. If two P5 schools, in the 15th largest state, can't move the needle, then there won't be any G5 schools that can come close.

But if the Big XII had the chance to add Arizona and Arizona State, they would do it in a heartbeat. And I bet the TV partners pony up the money to at least keep them even.


$340 million dollars for a population of 39 million
39 million divided by $340 million is 0.114

$408 million for a population of 46 million
46 million divided by $408 million is 0.112

It's a wash.

Its not a wash. You simply dont understand that the total conference payout is not the same thing as the media payout. ESPN is paying about 20 million each for the Big12 teams. The rest of that 34 million dollar payout is from CFP, NCAA credits, and other bowl income. That doesnt change because you add 2 teams--it just gets split more ways.

The truth is---these payouts have reached the level where only certain teams make sense as additions anymore--unless you have a conference network to help monetize an addition (like Rutgers and all those NY cable boxes).

You keep thinking im making the argument that a G5 can bring that kind of revenue. It cant. We've already seen that when the B12 nixed expansion. The only way it was going to work in that case was if the network paid full pro-rata share (20 million) for the new teams and the Big12 put the new teams on a graduated share system where they only got say a quarter share in year 1 (then a half share in year 2, etc). Even then---it wasn't really making the existing schools much extra money--and it would actually cost them money once the new teams reached full share status. Since the 2016 Big12/ESPN contract actually required ESPN to pay FULL pro-rata rate for the new team (G5 or P5), the math is basically the same for P5's. It is what it is.

To make it economically worth it for the Big12---you need a Florida or a USC to come calling....because---for the time being, dividing the money pot just 10 ways is paying off big for the Big12.

I don't think it takes a USC or Florida, but your point is valid. It takes a lot to generate that type of money. New members do add to the non-TV revenue, but other than NCAA tourney credits, its not necessarily proportional. Tourney credits depend on how successful they are.
03-19-2018 09:26 AM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #36
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-19-2018 08:39 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Big XII would welcome Arizona and Arizona State with open arms.

Just don't see a situation where either thinks that the Big XII is a better fit for who they are academically and athletically than the Pac-12.

Are you joking?

Not at all. Spent quite a bit of time in Arizona. They don't perceive themselves as schools that would align with the Big XII, same as Colorado who took on greater travel to align with a conference that fit their self-perception.
03-19-2018 09:43 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #37
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-18-2018 01:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.

Thing is, there's little evidence that the Big 12 has any such problem, as it schools are getting $34m from the conference this year.

And AZ and Arizona State aren't valuable because of state population, but because they are regarded nationally as "big time" schools.

E.g., people here in Baton Rouge don't follow Arizona or Arizona State, probably not 1 in 10 LSU fans could tell you who either of their football coaches are.

But if LSU scheduled either one for a football game, home or away, the reaction from the fan base would be along the lines of "oh, that's a pretty big game, a game against a prominent power from another P5 conference", and they would look forward to it. The AD would get credited with making a good "big time" OOC matchup, as opposed to a low-value throwaway matchup. Ditto if they played either in a bowl game.

In short, AZ and ASU have national respect as big time programs. No, not Alabama or USC level, but big time still.

That's the kind of status that both bring to any table.

Doesnt matter. The rules for adding P5's are the same as adding G5's.

I think it does. If last year, the Big 12 was going to add Arizona and Arizona State, ESPN would have had zero problem with ponying up the extra money to keep the Big 12 whole in terms of per school payout.
03-19-2018 09:57 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #38
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-19-2018 09:43 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-19-2018 08:39 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Big XII would welcome Arizona and Arizona State with open arms.

Just don't see a situation where either thinks that the Big XII is a better fit for who they are academically and athletically than the Pac-12.

Are you joking?

Not at all. Spent quite a bit of time in Arizona. They don't perceive themselves as schools that would align with the Big XII, same as Colorado who took on greater travel to align with a conference that fit their self-perception.

Agreed. From an institutional perspective, the Arizona schools definitely want to be associated with Stanford, UCLA, Berkeley, etc. It was the same thing with Colorado. That will always be a challenge for the Big 12 - while the league might make as much or more money than other P5 conferences, they don't really look at many of the Big 12 schools outside of UT as an institutional or aspirational peer.

Also, the other major risk with the Big 12 (which also likely won't ever change) is that any money advantage that it might currently have over the Pac-12 is almost entirely based on the presence of the University of Texas, which is arguably the single most valuable school in all of college sports from a conference realignment perspective. The Big 12 is built like an superstar-driven NBA team: its fortunes entirely rest on retaining its super-megastar of Texas in the same way that the Cleveland Cavaliers franchise entirely rests on retaining LeBron James. The Cavs are NOT a great franchise, but rather a team that is riding a transcendent megastar (as evidenced by how the Cavs looked when LeBron when to the Heat for 4 years).

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the University of Texas has the largest athletic department, the largest state population, the 3 largest individual TV markets (and 4 of the top 5 TV markets), the top athletic recruiting territory across all sports, the fastest growing demographic base, AND the best academics in the entire Big 12. ALL of that is wrapped in one school for the Big 12, whereas all of those factors are spread across multiple schools in the other P5 conferences. THAT is why the Big 12, regardless of how much money it might be making at a given time, is so much more vulnerable. It simply doesn't have the diversity that other P5 leagues have: all of the other P5 leagues could lose their single most valuable athletic program yet would still have other "lesser" schools that deliver large TV markets, top tier academics and/or great demographics. Texas leaving the Big 12 would literally make that league collapse, which is why no other P5 schools will bother with listening to a Big 12 offer no matter how much money they might have today.

Now, it might be the case that Texas is perfectly happy in the Big 12 and they're not going anywhere for a long time. In fact, I'd say that's very likely the case since I've come to the conclusion that Texas being able to exert control over an entire league of this nature is more important to them than potentially making more money as an equal peer in other conferences. So, I don't think the Big 12 is going to collapse. However, the point is that all of that is still contingent on the whims of a single school, which is a risk factor that schools in other P5 leagues aren't realistically going to take.
03-19-2018 10:30 AM
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HHOOTter Offline
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Post: #39
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-19-2018 10:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(03-19-2018 09:43 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-19-2018 08:39 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Big XII would welcome Arizona and Arizona State with open arms.

Just don't see a situation where either thinks that the Big XII is a better fit for who they are academically and athletically than the Pac-12.

Are you joking?

Not at all. Spent quite a bit of time in Arizona. They don't perceive themselves as schools that would align with the Big XII, same as Colorado who took on greater travel to align with a conference that fit their self-perception.

Agreed. From an institutional perspective, the Arizona schools definitely want to be associated with Stanford, UCLA, Berkeley, etc. It was the same thing with Colorado. That will always be a challenge for the Big 12 - while the league might make as much or more money than other P5 conferences, they don't really look at many of the Big 12 schools outside of UT as an institutional or aspirational peer.

Also, the other major risk with the Big 12 (which also likely won't ever change) is that any money advantage that it might currently have over the Pac-12 is almost entirely based on the presence of the University of Texas, which is arguably the single most valuable school in all of college sports from a conference realignment perspective. The Big 12 is built like an superstar-driven NBA team: its fortunes entirely rest on retaining its super-megastar of Texas in the same way that the Cleveland Cavaliers franchise entirely rests on retaining LeBron James. The Cavs are NOT a great franchise, but rather a team that is riding a transcendent megastar (as evidenced by how the Cavs looked when LeBron when to the Heat for 4 years).

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the University of Texas has the largest athletic department, the largest state population, the 3 largest individual TV markets (and 4 of the top 5 TV markets), the top athletic recruiting territory across all sports, the fastest growing demographic base, AND the best academics in the entire Big 12. ALL of that is wrapped in one school for the Big 12, whereas all of those factors are spread across multiple schools in the other P5 conferences. THAT is why the Big 12, regardless of how much money it might be making at a given time, is so much more vulnerable. It simply doesn't have the diversity that other P5 leagues have: all of the other P5 leagues could lose their single most valuable athletic program yet would still have other "lesser" schools that deliver large TV markets, top tier academics and/or great demographics. Texas leaving the Big 12 would literally make that league collapse, which is why no other P5 schools will bother with listening to a Big 12 offer no matter how much money they might have today.

Now, it might be the case that Texas is perfectly happy in the Big 12 and they're not going anywhere for a long time. In fact, I'd say that's very likely the case since I've come to the conclusion that Texas being able to exert control over an entire league of this nature is more important to them than potentially making more money as an equal peer in other conferences. So, I don't think the Big 12 is going to collapse. However, the point is that all of that is still contingent on the whims of a single school, which is a risk factor that schools in other P5 leagues aren't realistically going to take.

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03-19-2018 11:00 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #40
RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire?
(03-19-2018 10:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(03-19-2018 09:43 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-19-2018 08:39 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Big XII would welcome Arizona and Arizona State with open arms.

Just don't see a situation where either thinks that the Big XII is a better fit for who they are academically and athletically than the Pac-12.

Are you joking?

Not at all. Spent quite a bit of time in Arizona. They don't perceive themselves as schools that would align with the Big XII, same as Colorado who took on greater travel to align with a conference that fit their self-perception.

Agreed. From an institutional perspective, the Arizona schools definitely want to be associated with Stanford, UCLA, Berkeley, etc. It was the same thing with Colorado. That will always be a challenge for the Big 12 - while the league might make as much or more money than other P5 conferences, they don't really look at many of the Big 12 schools outside of UT as an institutional or aspirational peer.

Also, the other major risk with the Big 12 (which also likely won't ever change) is that any money advantage that it might currently have over the Pac-12 is almost entirely based on the presence of the University of Texas, which is arguably the single most valuable school in all of college sports from a conference realignment perspective. The Big 12 is built like an superstar-driven NBA team: its fortunes entirely rest on retaining its super-megastar of Texas in the same way that the Cleveland Cavaliers franchise entirely rests on retaining LeBron James. The Cavs are NOT a great franchise, but rather a team that is riding a transcendent megastar (as evidenced by how the Cavs looked when LeBron when to the Heat for 4 years).

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the University of Texas has the largest athletic department, the largest state population, the 3 largest individual TV markets (and 4 of the top 5 TV markets), the top athletic recruiting territory across all sports, the fastest growing demographic base, AND the best academics in the entire Big 12. ALL of that is wrapped in one school for the Big 12, whereas all of those factors are spread across multiple schools in the other P5 conferences. THAT is why the Big 12, regardless of how much money it might be making at a given time, is so much more vulnerable. It simply doesn't have the diversity that other P5 leagues have: all of the other P5 leagues could lose their single most valuable athletic program yet would still have other "lesser" schools that deliver large TV markets, top tier academics and/or great demographics. Texas leaving the Big 12 would literally make that league collapse, which is why no other P5 schools will bother with listening to a Big 12 offer no matter how much money they might have today.

Now, it might be the case that Texas is perfectly happy in the Big 12 and they're not going anywhere for a long time. In fact, I'd say that's very likely the case since I've come to the conclusion that Texas being able to exert control over an entire league of this nature is more important to them than potentially making more money as an equal peer in other conferences. So, I don't think the Big 12 is going to collapse. However, the point is that all of that is still contingent on the whims of a single school, which is a risk factor that schools in other P5 leagues aren't realistically going to take.

I agree it hinges on UT (and to a lesser degree, OU) being content. The Big 12 will exist as long as UT is happy. But what is not to be happy about for both UT and the rest of the league? The model has produced strong revenues for all and competitive teams. And even though there is unequal sharing, it is based on monetization of third tier rights, not codified structure which is more palatable. And the on the field rivalries and competition is fun and strong. The league isn't dominated by UT athletically. Maybe that will change but I think the tight geography and round robins (other than WVU, of course) helps all the schools in terms of branding and familiarity. I live in Big 10 country and it seems to me the spread out geography and schedules is an intrinsic advantage to the bell cow schools.
03-19-2018 11:48 AM
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