(03-19-2018 09:43 AM)arkstfan Wrote: (03-19-2018 08:39 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote: (03-18-2018 12:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote: Big XII would welcome Arizona and Arizona State with open arms.
Just don't see a situation where either thinks that the Big XII is a better fit for who they are academically and athletically than the Pac-12.
Are you joking?
Not at all. Spent quite a bit of time in Arizona. They don't perceive themselves as schools that would align with the Big XII, same as Colorado who took on greater travel to align with a conference that fit their self-perception.
Agreed. From an institutional perspective, the Arizona schools definitely want to be associated with Stanford, UCLA, Berkeley, etc. It was the same thing with Colorado. That will always be a challenge for the Big 12 - while the league might make as much or more money than other P5 conferences, they don't really look at many of the Big 12 schools outside of UT as an institutional or aspirational peer.
Also, the other major risk with the Big 12 (which also likely won't ever change) is that any money advantage that it might currently have over the Pac-12 is almost entirely based on the presence of the University of Texas, which is arguably the single most valuable school in all of college sports from a conference realignment perspective. The Big 12 is built like an superstar-driven NBA team: its fortunes entirely rest on retaining its super-megastar of Texas in the same way that the Cleveland Cavaliers franchise entirely rests on retaining LeBron James. The Cavs are NOT a great franchise, but rather a team that is riding a transcendent megastar (as evidenced by how the Cavs looked when LeBron when to the Heat for 4 years).
I've said it before and I'll say it again: the University of Texas has the largest athletic department, the largest state population, the 3 largest individual TV markets (and 4 of the top 5 TV markets), the top athletic recruiting territory across all sports, the fastest growing demographic base, AND the best academics in the entire Big 12. ALL of that is wrapped in one school for the Big 12, whereas all of those factors are spread across multiple schools in the other P5 conferences. THAT is why the Big 12, regardless of how much money it might be making at a given time, is so much more vulnerable. It simply doesn't have the diversity that other P5 leagues have: all of the other P5 leagues could lose their single most valuable athletic program yet would still have other "lesser" schools that deliver large TV markets, top tier academics and/or great demographics. Texas leaving the Big 12 would literally make that league collapse, which is why no other P5 schools will bother with listening to a Big 12 offer no matter how much money they might have today.
Now, it might be the case that Texas is perfectly happy in the Big 12 and they're not going anywhere for a long time. In fact, I'd say that's very likely the case since I've come to the conclusion that Texas being able to exert control over an entire league of this nature is more important to them than potentially making more money as an equal peer in other conferences. So, I don't think the Big 12 is going to collapse. However, the point is that all of that is still contingent on the whims of a single school, which is a risk factor that schools in other P5 leagues aren't realistically going to take.