What would be the acceptable back up plans of the other P4 conferences if any of these scenarios happened. And please limit the movements to take each P conference to no more than 16 teams. And there shall be no partials and there shall be only 4 conferences:

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:


(A.) SEC: I think that without Oklahoma that the Big 10 would not find enough value in Kansas to take them. The SEC however might see an opportunity to still cover some bases to the West by adding T.C.U. and Kansas. Kansas nails down the boundary extension from Kentucky through Kansas. T.C.U. gives us another Texas school but also a presence in the DFW area.

Big 10: Would stay at 14 at wait to see if Eastern targets become available in 2035-7.

ACC: Would have an opportunity to snag WVU. They do and Notre Dame to help secure the ACC North goes all in.



(B.) SEC: The SEC would make a play for Texas and whoever they desired to bring. If this fails we do nothing.


ACC: Makes an attempt to lure Texas and settles for West Virginia. Notre Dame may or may not go all in for this.

PAC: Makes a play for Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U. and another (Kansas State/Iowa State). If they fail they do nothing.



©: Big 10: Makes a play for Texas and Kansas. If it fails they do nothing.

ACC: Makes a play for Texas and if it fails they take West Virginia.

PAC 12: Makes a play for Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Kansas State. If it fails they do nothing.



Conclusion: West Virginia is an excellent fallback position for the ACC no matter the circumstance.

There isn't enough in the Big 12 for contingencies to be successful for everyone. There are truly scenarios where it is preferable to do nothing.

For the PAC it's Texa-homa or Texas two / Kansas two or nothing.


So it seems to me that somebody is much more likely to hit a home run with a multiple school grab here. So perhaps 16 is unrealistic. Perhaps it is more likely that either the PAC / SEC / or Big 10 score a huge get with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and a 4th. Or perhaps the SEC/ACC absorption of the Big 12 is truly a more likely outcome.

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:

Neither the Big Ten or the SEC expand in this scenario. Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and West Virginia would stick together and see which conference gives them the best offer. The Big 12 might stick around if only to keep the automatic bid and try to bring up a few programs to keep them from sliding further. The likes of BYU, Houston, UCF and USF would get looks.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

This scenario might end up being beneficial to Texas if they play their cards right. The Horns would be subject to heavy overtures from the ACC, Pac-12, AAC, a desperate Big 12 and even the SEC might make them an offer in hopes of stopping a move northwards (even if slim chance). I could see a scenario where UT (with maybe a new ally like BYU) would help stabilize the Big 12 in exchange for getting certain privileges like a scheduling agreement or adding more Texas programs to the conference. West Virginia would make overtures to the ACC but keep the Horns in contact in case that fails. How far would the ACC go in winning over UT knowing that KU and OU are unavailable?

I think it would come down to between the Pac-12 and Big 12, with the Big 12 being the odds on favorite because of geography and the opportunity to add Texas teams that the PAC can't accept.

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

Could an offer of Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Kansas State work for the Pac-12? The Big Ten would find that in-state politics and the desperate situation for the Big 12 make offering UT and KU too problematic from their standpoint. The ACC might offer but the political snags would be similar for them as well. The Big 12 could still manage to stick together as long and UT and KU stick together and add some quality programs from the AAC.

(04-06-2018 10:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Conclusion: West Virginia is an excellent fallback position for the ACC no matter the circumstance.

This. Unless ESPN can broker an ACC/SEC absorb Big XII deal.

Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

Already off topic but do the top 4 change based on the league?

Big 10: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State
PAC 12: Texas, tech, Oklahoma, Kansas
ACC: Texas, OK, WVU, Kansas/TCU (?)
SEC: Texas, OK, Kansas, TCU

Big 10 can't take Tech or OK State so Iowa State is their fourth.

PAC has alot of flexibility but needs Texas markets

ACC: WVU has alot of value

SEC: not sure we would need TCU if we had Texas and OK so maybe Iowa State just like the Big 10? I dunno.

(04-07-2018 08:16 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

Already off topic but do the top 4 change based on the league?

Big 10: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State
PAC 12: Texas, tech, Oklahoma, Kansas
ACC: Texas, OK, WVU, Kansas/TCU (?)
SEC: Texas, OK, Kansas, TCU

Big 10 can't take Tech or OK State so Iowa State is their fourth.

PAC has alot of flexibility but needs Texas markets

ACC: WVU has alot of value

SEC: not sure we would need TCU if we had Texas and OK so maybe Iowa State just like the Big 10? I dunno.

We already have Texas's chief rival outside of Oklahoma and we have their #3 oldest rival in Arkansas. So I think we might still have to handle OSU to get OU. So maybe our 4 would be Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas. But I agree that if moving to 4 with WVU headed to the ACC that Iowa State is a possibility, but then so might Texas Tech or Oklahoma State. Truly if we were getting Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas the 4th member probably wouldn't matter much one way or the other.

(04-07-2018 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 08:16 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

Already off topic but do the top 4 change based on the league?

Big 10: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State
PAC 12: Texas, tech, Oklahoma, Kansas
ACC: Texas, OK, WVU, Kansas/TCU (?)
SEC: Texas, OK, Kansas, TCU

Big 10 can't take Tech or OK State so Iowa State is their fourth.

PAC has alot of flexibility but needs Texas markets

ACC: WVU has alot of value

SEC: not sure we would need TCU if we had Texas and OK so maybe Iowa State just like the Big 10? I dunno.

We already have Texas's chief rival outside of Oklahoma and we have their #3 oldest rival in Arkansas. So I think we might still have to handle OSU to get OU. So maybe our 4 would be Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas. But I agree that if moving to 4 with WVU headed to the ACC that Iowa State is a possibility, but then so might Texas Tech or Oklahoma State. Truly if we were getting Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas the 4th member probably wouldn't matter much one way or the other.

I guess I'm asking about value outside of who we have to take to get who. So ideally, we'd want Texas, OK, and Kansas, but who provides the most value after that. It may very well be OSU.

(04-07-2018 11:09 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 08:16 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

Already off topic but do the top 4 change based on the league?

Big 10: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State
PAC 12: Texas, tech, Oklahoma, Kansas
ACC: Texas, OK, WVU, Kansas/TCU (?)
SEC: Texas, OK, Kansas, TCU

Big 10 can't take Tech or OK State so Iowa State is their fourth.

PAC has alot of flexibility but needs Texas markets

ACC: WVU has alot of value

SEC: not sure we would need TCU if we had Texas and OK so maybe Iowa State just like the Big 10? I dunno.

We already have Texas's chief rival outside of Oklahoma and we have their #3 oldest rival in Arkansas. So I think we might still have to handle OSU to get OU. So maybe our 4 would be Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas. But I agree that if moving to 4 with WVU headed to the ACC that Iowa State is a possibility, but then so might Texas Tech or Oklahoma State. Truly if we were getting Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas the 4th member probably wouldn't matter much one way or the other.

I guess I'm asking about value outside of who we have to take to get who. So ideally, we'd want Texas, OK, and Kansas, but who provides the most value after that. It may very well be OSU.

Actually I think last year WVU had the best numbers, but Oklahoma State had a higher value according to the WSJ. So if WVU is headed to the ACC then OSU probably would be 4th based on all other criteria.

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

But, what if B1G strikes first and takes only OU and KU? Would any conference be interested in taking Texas and more than one other? What combination of Texas plus other schools would make financial sense? Or, to put it differently, is there a conference that would take four schools unless they get both Texas and OU?

(04-08-2018 07:16 AM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

But, what if B1G strikes first and takes only OU and KU? Would any conference be interested in taking Texas and more than one other? What combination of Texas plus other schools would make financial sense? Or, to put it differently, is there a conference that would take four schools unless they get both Texas and OU?

Texas and either Texas Tech or T.C.U. would be appealing to about any other conference. The interest in football and the nearly 30 million in Texas add to anyone's bottom line. But to be specific, under those circumstances only the PAC would be likely takers of Texas plus 3 of their buddies. It's possible that the ACC might make that kind of offer but I consider them less likely to do so than the PAC.

(04-08-2018 12:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-08-2018 07:16 AM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

But, what if B1G strikes first and takes only OU and KU? Would any conference be interested in taking Texas and more than one other? What combination of Texas plus other schools would make financial sense? Or, to put it differently, is there a conference that would take four schools unless they get both Texas and OU?

Texas and either Texas Tech or T.C.U. would be appealing to about any other conference. The interest in football and the nearly 30 million in Texas add to anyone's bottom line. But to be specific, under those circumstances only the PAC would be likely takers of Texas plus 3 of their buddies. It's possible that the ACC might make that kind of offer but I consider them less likely to do so than the PAC.

You are probably correct, though it might depend some on which buddies... make it WVU + Texas + 2 Texas buddies and you have a deal, IMO.

ESPN will want to keep the ACC as an all ETZ league.
The ideal situation for the SEC would be Texas and Oklahoma.
Then the best situation for the ACC would be Notre Dame and West Virginia.

As was stated earlier, nobody really wants to go beyond 16.

As far as TCU goes, they have 8891 undergraduates as of 2017. I like TCU, but is the university large enough to be in another P5 conference? They average around 47,000 in football but what else can they bring to the SEC, or anyone else? They rank 78th in National Universities. Anyone know what their research programs encompass?

(04-09-2018 12:32 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  As far as TCU goes, they have 8891 undergraduates as of 2017. I like TCU, but is the university large enough to be in another P5 conference? They average around 47,000 in football but what else can they bring to the SEC, or anyone else? They rank 78th in National Universities. Anyone know what their research programs encompass?

Their research will go up. They are adding a medical school. What they offer is a chance to play in DFW 6 times a year. And anyone who takes them can only hope that they grow.

I think they would be a fall back position for the SEC should we miss out on Oklahoma. But that's the only way they have value to us. To the PAC, especially if they add the medical school, they have some potential.

(04-08-2018 07:16 AM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

But, what if B1G strikes first and takes only OU and KU? Would any conference be interested in taking Texas and more than one other? What combination of Texas plus other schools would make financial sense? Or, to put it differently, is there a conference that would take four schools unless they get both Texas and OU?

That's an interesting question, the implication being that either one of UT/OU cannot carry three others. But what if 4 with either one includes two states instead of one? I think it's possible with UT but not OU. Oklahoma's too small for OU to carry three with them. UT can carry OU, KU or TT. OU can carry KU or OSU. If UT can carry TT then a third team may have to come from another state. That's where Okie State may come in. Yes, Okie State's academics are suspect for the Pac-12 but: a) they're a public school; b) they'll help an acquiring conference expand beyond Texas and into Oklahoma. Who might be the fourth school? My guess is Rice University. They're small but already have the academic chops, plus located in a major market. With a large endowment Rice can basically pay their way in.

The question would then become could UT and Rice carry two others to the Pac-12.

(04-09-2018 01:48 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-08-2018 07:16 AM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

But, what if B1G strikes first and takes only OU and KU? Would any conference be interested in taking Texas and more than one other? What combination of Texas plus other schools would make financial sense? Or, to put it differently, is there a conference that would take four schools unless they get both Texas and OU?

That's an interesting question, the implication being that either one of UT/OU cannot carry three others. But what if 4 with either one includes two states instead of one? I think it's possible with UT but not OU. Oklahoma's too small for OU to carry three with them. UT can carry OU, KU or TT. OU can carry KU or OSU. If UT can carry TT then a third team may have to come from another state. That's where Okie State may come in. Yes, Okie State's academics are suspect for the Pac-12 but: a) they're a public school; b) they'll help an acquiring conference expand beyond Texas and into Oklahoma. Who might be the fourth school? My guess is Rice University. They're small but already have the academic chops, plus located in a major market. With a large endowment Rice can basically pay their way in.

The question would then become could UT and Rice carry two others to the Pac-12.

I don't think either OU or UT can carry more than one buddy. Simply this, Texas and Oklahoma are not going to move unless they get an increase in revenue, something on the order of B1G/SEC payouts, ie, ~$50M. Conference do not want unequal distributions. The PAC would have 16 teams. The total conference payout would be $800M per year.

The PAC 2017 payout is estimated to be $29.5M per school for a 12 team total of slightly less than $360M. The PAC would have to find an additional $440M to make this work. Would Texas, Rice, and two other schools (not Oklahoma) add $440M in revenue?

The killer for this strategies is the need to raise every conference member to B1G/SEC levels. The math works a lot better for the SEC or the B1G because those conferences don't have to raise their own payouts to their members. Adding four teams to the SEC/B1G only costs $200M while adding four teams to PAC costs $440M.

(04-09-2018 12:32 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  As far as TCU goes, they have 8891 undergraduates as of 2017. I like TCU, but is the university large enough to be in another P5 conference? They average around 47,000 in football but what else can they bring to the SEC, or anyone else? They rank 78th in National Universities. Anyone know what their research programs encompass?

Texas Tech would be a better option than TCU if gathering more eyeballs in DFW is the goal. Honestly, just grab the two Oklahoma schools and you should have added about the same amount of fan support in that market and added a new state that deeply supports collegiate athletics.

(04-09-2018 12:24 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-09-2018 01:48 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-08-2018 07:16 AM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 06:42 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Only UT and OU are truly masters of their destiny since they are the only XII schools who would be worth acquiring. UT and OU could, reasonably take along one, and only one, additional school. That means six schools will be left behind. None of these six schools would be attractive to any of the other conferences either...

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC:
Every other conference stands pat. Adding additional XII schools would cost them more than they make.

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10:

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC:

B&C are basically the same scenario. I suspect Texas would take TTU with them to a new conference. If OU/KU go B1G, then UT could go to the SEC or the PAC. If OU goes to the SEC, then Texas would go to the PAC.

Or, Texas could just reform the SWC with the remnants of the XII plus a few G5 teams.

All of this is why I believe that 16 will not be the ending point and that if someone raids the Big 12 they will be at minimum seeking 4 schools and possibly more. The Big 10 is the only one that can't pursue more. Even if they push for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma they would have to find a 4th elsewhere unless they took Iowa State, so I suppose it's possible for them if they go that route.

But, what if B1G strikes first and takes only OU and KU? Would any conference be interested in taking Texas and more than one other? What combination of Texas plus other schools would make financial sense? Or, to put it differently, is there a conference that would take four schools unless they get both Texas and OU?

That's an interesting question, the implication being that either one of UT/OU cannot carry three others. But what if 4 with either one includes two states instead of one? I think it's possible with UT but not OU. Oklahoma's too small for OU to carry three with them. UT can carry OU, KU or TT. OU can carry KU or OSU. If UT can carry TT then a third team may have to come from another state. That's where Okie State may come in. Yes, Okie State's academics are suspect for the Pac-12 but: a) they're a public school; b) they'll help an acquiring conference expand beyond Texas and into Oklahoma. Who might be the fourth school? My guess is Rice University. They're small but already have the academic chops, plus located in a major market. With a large endowment Rice can basically pay their way in.

The question would then become could UT and Rice carry two others to the Pac-12.

I don't think either OU or UT can carry more than one buddy. Simply this, Texas and Oklahoma are not going to move unless they get an increase in revenue, something on the order of B1G/SEC payouts, ie, ~$50M. Conference do not want unequal distributions. The PAC would have 16 teams. The total conference payout would be $800M per year.

The PAC 2017 payout is estimated to be $29.5M per school for a 12 team total of slightly less than $360M. The PAC would have to find an additional $440M to make this work. Would Texas, Rice, and two other schools (not Oklahoma) add $440M in revenue?

The killer for this strategies is the need to raise every conference member to B1G/SEC levels. The math works a lot better for the SEC or the B1G because those conferences don't have to raise their own payouts to their members. Adding four teams to the SEC/B1G only costs $200M while adding four teams to PAC costs $440M.

The PAC could add revenues by selling half of their network to a Fox or ESPN type of company that will reorganize the PAC Network of channels and get better National distribution. If not, the PAC has to figure out a way to make their investment more profitable and competitive to other P5 conferences or risk a greater financial gap and possible deflections of its own dissatisfied members.

(04-06-2018 10:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What would be the acceptable back up plans of the other P4 conferences if any of these scenarios happened. And please limit the movements to take each P conference to no more than 16 teams. And there shall be no partials and there shall be only 4 conferences:

(A.) Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State move to the PAC

(B.) Oklahoma and Kansas move to the Big 10

(C.) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC

A - Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St > PAC

It'd be tough for me to imagine much happens in the immediate if this were to occur. I'd think the B1G would want to lure Kansas but would they accept Iowa St or a non-AAU school like Kansas St or Connecticut? I have my doubts. I don't think the B1G expands.

I think we'd see the SEC add Kansas and West Virginia. Both are flagships with great basketball. Kansas' football is a dumpster fire but they are AAU and...well...Jayhawks basketball. West Virginia is to the ACC as Missouri was to the B1G - a good fit but rejected by the conference.

Under these rules, the ACC would be obligated to keep spot #16 for Notre Dame. So let's consider two options -
Notre Dame and ACC part ways: ACC should consider any combination of TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, and Connecticut. My preference would be TCU and Cincinnati but both Texas metro schools would be good additions.
Notre Dame joins in football: ACC should add Cincinnati. The Bearcats have a small, recent, but relevant history with Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. They fit in the ACC footprint and add a school in B1G territory.

Power Conferences...

PAC
West: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech

B1G
West: Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

SEC
West: Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama
East: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, West Virginia

ACC (with Notre Dame)
Atlantic: Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina St, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College
Coastal: Louisville, Cincinnati, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami

B - Oklahoma, Kansas > B1G

The SEC will jump immediately but wisely. They will make a play for Texas which will likely require Texas Tech. Which would be fine. Texas A&M may not be happy but the $$$ will help.

I'll presume the ACC gets Notre Dame and they also bite the bullet on West Virginia which is still a good addition. If Notre Dame says no, then Cincinnati for #16.

The PAC would need a Central Time Zone presence or they'll fall away quickly. They add TCU, Houston, Oklahoma St, and Kansas St. This puts them in Texas with two moderately solid programs. All four have had recent success in basketball as well.

Power Conferences...

PAC
West: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Houston

B1G
West: Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

SEC
West: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
East: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina

ACC (with Notre Dame)
Atlantic: Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina St, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College
Coastal: Louisville, West Virginia, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami

C - Oklahoma, Oklahoma St > SEC

This addition will put the SEC on pause for a while. If, down the road, the right school is available and wants to be in the SEC then that relationship would occur.

The B1G would want to react similarly to the SEC in scenario B above. I would doubt Texas would head north even with a buddy. However, there just isn't a viable option for the B1G outside of Kansas. The B1G would go up to 15 with the Jayhawks and leave #16 open until the right school became available.

The PAC would offer a sweetheart deal to Texas to bring 3 local friends. Texas joins with Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston.

The ACC does the same thing as in scenario B above.

Power Conferences...

PAC
West: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston

B1G
West: Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Central: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan St
East: Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

SEC
West: Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
East: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina

ACC (with Notre Dame)
Atlantic: Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina St, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College
Coastal: Louisville, West Virginia, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami