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Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
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Win5002 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  
(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

I wasn't trying to say it couldn't be done especially if everyone found homes, I was saying it would be very hard to do what Rocket City Sooner usually advocates in taking 4 of the schools and leaving the rest without a new home.
04-17-2018 08:07 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-17-2018 08:07 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  
(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

I wasn't trying to say it couldn't be done especially if everyone found homes, I was saying it would be very hard to do what Rocket City Sooner usually advocates in taking 4 of the schools and leaving the rest without a new home.

Yeah, there's no way only 4 are getting out until after 2025. Only then is what RCS suggests possible. I just think there's way too much pressure to garner rights for all of these potential carriers for ESPN to let pass by an opportunity to lock up the Big 12 early.
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2018 12:04 PM by JRsec.)
04-17-2018 08:49 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  
(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

A shift like:
Missouri, Louisville and Cincinnati to the Big 12, West Virginia to the SEC and Notre Dame full to the ACC?
04-18-2018 07:30 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-18-2018 07:30 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  
(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

A shift like:
Missouri, Louisville and Cincinnati to the Big 12, West Virginia to the SEC and Notre Dame full to the ACC?

Neither the ACC nor the SEC are going to lose any teams like that. Now, if Wake Forest were to decide to drop down or drop football - I'm sure that could be accommodated. But no one is being traded - ever.
04-18-2018 07:54 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-18-2018 07:54 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:30 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

A shift like:
Missouri, Louisville and Cincinnati to the Big 12, West Virginia to the SEC and Notre Dame full to the ACC?

Neither the ACC nor the SEC are going to lose any teams like that. Now, if Wake Forest were to decide to drop down or drop football - I'm sure that could be accommodated. But no one is being traded - ever.

So Mark, just which school is the loser in that scenario?
ESPN is certainly not a loser, they would have three marketing units instead of two, with each targeting different geographical areas, which means more regional advertisers (more money).
04-18-2018 12:11 PM
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Win5002 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-18-2018 12:11 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:54 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:30 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

A shift like:
Missouri, Louisville and Cincinnati to the Big 12, West Virginia to the SEC and Notre Dame full to the ACC?

Neither the ACC nor the SEC are going to lose any teams like that. Now, if Wake Forest were to decide to drop down or drop football - I'm sure that could be accommodated. But no one is being traded - ever.

So Mark, just which school is the loser in that scenario?
ESPN is certainly not a loser, they would have three marketing units instead of two, with each targeting different geographical areas, which means more regional advertisers (more money).

We have not seen trades before but I do think when you bring up what is beneficial to the network there is something to consider. We all see the tv revenues in the B1G & SEC as the highest and so that is a natural attraction to schools but as we move to more of a content based delivery system instead of markets I think some schools are out of place and therefore under utilized by the networks.

XLance you shifted just a few teams around but I think you don't have the correct teams. I will continue to argue Nebraska & Arkansas would do much better athletically in the Big 12 but another factor people overlook is the value of the content of those teams in respective leagues.

Games involving Nebraska in the Big 12 will be more valuable than games in involving Nebraska in the B1G. I think its an absolute no brainer games involving Arkansas in the Big 12 are more valuable than games involving Arkansas in the SEC.

I think at sometime the networks look at this and it might be more beneficial for the networks for movements like that.

The Big 12's financial demise was greatly exaggerated, albeit understandable with the initial instability. If Nebraska could have known at the time they left(which they couldn't) how financially stable the Big 12 would have been I don't think they would have left unless the academic side has the deciding vote. Also, the B1G has sent clear signals the focus of the league is the eastern teams and barring a OU, Tx addition that will never change. I also think the roadblock to this is Texas will require more Texas teams for them to ever go to the B1G. So I think Nebraska will suffer athletically as a result and their content will not be worth what the B1G and networks had hoped in the beginning.

If you want minor movement, Arkansas & Nebraska to the Big 12, WVU to the SEC, and Missouri could go Big 12 or B1G. You might say what is the difference with Missouri and Nebraska, Missouri has some history playing Illinois and they are a filler in either league not a headliner. If Missouri goes to the B1G the Big 12 could take one from Houston, BYU or CSU.
04-18-2018 02:32 PM
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The Grassy Nole Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
I don't believe we will ever see a true "trade" per say because what schools would honestly agree to this? Most probably wouldn't due to the ego found within the leadership found in the Universities, they will refuse to have their institution to essentially becoming a pawn in the theoretical game of chess. In every school's mind they are all at least Queens upon the board, and all of them are far to valuable to be sacrificed for a "bishop".
04-19-2018 01:58 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-19-2018 01:58 PM)The Grassy Nole Wrote:  I don't believe we will ever see a true "trade" per say because what schools would honestly agree to this? Most probably wouldn't due to the ego found within the leadership found in the Universities, they will refuse to have their institution to essentially becoming a pawn in the theoretical game of chess. In every school's mind they are all at least Queens upon the board, and all of them are far to valuable to be sacrificed for a "bishop".

I think you're very much correct.

That and these schools are looking for stability so if you're going to change neighborhoods then it better be a nicer one and it better be worth the trouble.

That's why I think any of these scenarios where schools depart the SEC or B1G for the Big 12 to be a little silly. And this is coming from me...the guy who loves posting crazy scenarios.

It's possible the Big 12 could survive past 2025, but it won't be as strong as it is today should that occur. The Big 12 as we know it is living on borrowed time.
04-19-2018 02:16 PM
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
Missouri's ship sailed long ago and it is ported in Birmingham, where it will stay.07-coffee3
04-19-2018 04:18 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-18-2018 02:32 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 12:11 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:54 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:30 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

A shift like:
Missouri, Louisville and Cincinnati to the Big 12, West Virginia to the SEC and Notre Dame full to the ACC?

Neither the ACC nor the SEC are going to lose any teams like that. Now, if Wake Forest were to decide to drop down or drop football - I'm sure that could be accommodated. But no one is being traded - ever.

So Mark, just which school is the loser in that scenario?
ESPN is certainly not a loser, they would have three marketing units instead of two, with each targeting different geographical areas, which means more regional advertisers (more money).

We have not seen trades before but I do think when you bring up what is beneficial to the network there is something to consider. We all see the tv revenues in the B1G & SEC as the highest and so that is a natural attraction to schools but as we move to more of a content based delivery system instead of markets I think some schools are out of place and therefore under utilized by the networks.

XLance you shifted just a few teams around but I think you don't have the correct teams. I will continue to argue Nebraska & Arkansas would do much better athletically in the Big 12 but another factor people overlook is the value of the content of those teams in respective leagues.

Games involving Nebraska in the Big 12 will be more valuable than games in involving Nebraska in the B1G. I think its an absolute no brainer games involving Arkansas in the Big 12 are more valuable than games involving Arkansas in the SEC.

I think at sometime the networks look at this and it might be more beneficial for the networks for movements like that.

The Big 12's financial demise was greatly exaggerated, albeit understandable with the initial instability. If Nebraska could have known at the time they left(which they couldn't) how financially stable the Big 12 would have been I don't think they would have left unless the academic side has the deciding vote. Also, the B1G has sent clear signals the focus of the league is the eastern teams and barring a OU, Tx addition that will never change. I also think the roadblock to this is Texas will require more Texas teams for them to ever go to the B1G. So I think Nebraska will suffer athletically as a result and their content will not be worth what the B1G and networks had hoped in the beginning.

If you want minor movement, Arkansas & Nebraska to the Big 12, WVU to the SEC, and Missouri could go Big 12 or B1G. You might say what is the difference with Missouri and Nebraska, Missouri has some history playing Illinois and they are a filler in either league not a headliner. If Missouri goes to the B1G the Big 12 could take one from Houston, BYU or CSU.

I would have liked to move Nebraska back to the Big 12, but I'm not sure they could escape. Moving a SEC team to the Big 12 (if the ACC and SEC split all of the schools between them/forged a new conference with the help of ESPN) would be keeping all of the schools within the same family and more money in ESPN's pocket (who will continue to feed us).
04-19-2018 05:03 PM
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-19-2018 05:03 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 02:32 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 12:11 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:54 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:30 AM)XLance Wrote:  A shift like:
Missouri, Louisville and Cincinnati to the Big 12, West Virginia to the SEC and Notre Dame full to the ACC?

Neither the ACC nor the SEC are going to lose any teams like that. Now, if Wake Forest were to decide to drop down or drop football - I'm sure that could be accommodated. But no one is being traded - ever.

So Mark, just which school is the loser in that scenario?
ESPN is certainly not a loser, they would have three marketing units instead of two, with each targeting different geographical areas, which means more regional advertisers (more money).

We have not seen trades before but I do think when you bring up what is beneficial to the network there is something to consider. We all see the tv revenues in the B1G & SEC as the highest and so that is a natural attraction to schools but as we move to more of a content based delivery system instead of markets I think some schools are out of place and therefore under utilized by the networks.

XLance you shifted just a few teams around but I think you don't have the correct teams. I will continue to argue Nebraska & Arkansas would do much better athletically in the Big 12 but another factor people overlook is the value of the content of those teams in respective leagues.

Games involving Nebraska in the Big 12 will be more valuable than games in involving Nebraska in the B1G. I think its an absolute no brainer games involving Arkansas in the Big 12 are more valuable than games involving Arkansas in the SEC.

I think at sometime the networks look at this and it might be more beneficial for the networks for movements like that.

The Big 12's financial demise was greatly exaggerated, albeit understandable with the initial instability. If Nebraska could have known at the time they left(which they couldn't) how financially stable the Big 12 would have been I don't think they would have left unless the academic side has the deciding vote. Also, the B1G has sent clear signals the focus of the league is the eastern teams and barring a OU, Tx addition that will never change. I also think the roadblock to this is Texas will require more Texas teams for them to ever go to the B1G. So I think Nebraska will suffer athletically as a result and their content will not be worth what the B1G and networks had hoped in the beginning.

If you want minor movement, Arkansas & Nebraska to the Big 12, WVU to the SEC, and Missouri could go Big 12 or B1G. You might say what is the difference with Missouri and Nebraska, Missouri has some history playing Illinois and they are a filler in either league not a headliner. If Missouri goes to the B1G the Big 12 could take one from Houston, BYU or CSU.

I would have liked to move Nebraska back to the Big 12, but I'm not sure they could escape. Moving a SEC team to the Big 12 (if the ACC and SEC split all of the schools between them/forged a new conference with the help of ESPN) would be keeping all of the schools within the same family and more money in ESPN's pocket (who will continue to feed us).
Lance, the ACC schools are making less than any other P5 conference. Maybe the ACC should worry about being divided up. How much more do you think FSU and Clemson will put up with, taking the money they get from ACC membership. I bet they are seeing green and deserve it.
04-19-2018 10:28 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-19-2018 10:28 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  
(04-19-2018 05:03 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 02:32 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 12:11 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-18-2018 07:54 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Neither the ACC nor the SEC are going to lose any teams like that. Now, if Wake Forest were to decide to drop down or drop football - I'm sure that could be accommodated. But no one is being traded - ever.

So Mark, just which school is the loser in that scenario?
ESPN is certainly not a loser, they would have three marketing units instead of two, with each targeting different geographical areas, which means more regional advertisers (more money).

We have not seen trades before but I do think when you bring up what is beneficial to the network there is something to consider. We all see the tv revenues in the B1G & SEC as the highest and so that is a natural attraction to schools but as we move to more of a content based delivery system instead of markets I think some schools are out of place and therefore under utilized by the networks.

XLance you shifted just a few teams around but I think you don't have the correct teams. I will continue to argue Nebraska & Arkansas would do much better athletically in the Big 12 but another factor people overlook is the value of the content of those teams in respective leagues.

Games involving Nebraska in the Big 12 will be more valuable than games in involving Nebraska in the B1G. I think its an absolute no brainer games involving Arkansas in the Big 12 are more valuable than games involving Arkansas in the SEC.

I think at sometime the networks look at this and it might be more beneficial for the networks for movements like that.

The Big 12's financial demise was greatly exaggerated, albeit understandable with the initial instability. If Nebraska could have known at the time they left(which they couldn't) how financially stable the Big 12 would have been I don't think they would have left unless the academic side has the deciding vote. Also, the B1G has sent clear signals the focus of the league is the eastern teams and barring a OU, Tx addition that will never change. I also think the roadblock to this is Texas will require more Texas teams for them to ever go to the B1G. So I think Nebraska will suffer athletically as a result and their content will not be worth what the B1G and networks had hoped in the beginning.

If you want minor movement, Arkansas & Nebraska to the Big 12, WVU to the SEC, and Missouri could go Big 12 or B1G. You might say what is the difference with Missouri and Nebraska, Missouri has some history playing Illinois and they are a filler in either league not a headliner. If Missouri goes to the B1G the Big 12 could take one from Houston, BYU or CSU.

I would have liked to move Nebraska back to the Big 12, but I'm not sure they could escape. Moving a SEC team to the Big 12 (if the ACC and SEC split all of the schools between them/forged a new conference with the help of ESPN) would be keeping all of the schools within the same family and more money in ESPN's pocket (who will continue to feed us).
Lance, the ACC schools are making less than any other P5 conference. Maybe the ACC should worry about being divided up. How much more do you think FSU and Clemson will put up with, taking the money they get from ACC membership. I bet they are seeing green and deserve it.

That will not be the case much longer, Medic.
04-20-2018 04:21 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-17-2018 06:52 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 04:46 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Wasn't it Greg Sankey who more or less shut down Finebaum from talking about these things last year?

I can see certain media outlets trying to stir rumors up for the sake of page views as someone else mentioned, but you are right. It does seem that the decision makers have their lips sealed.

I would even theorize that Boren was playing a game designed to put pressure on Texas when he went public with all his statements the last couple of years. He was a politician after all and I doubt he was conducting business in the open.

Bump

Yes, they are all tight lipped. But then right now they are trying their best to figure out what's going to happen with the basketball situation, what's going to happen with stipend caps, and how to monetize the streaming.

But, everyone knows that there is about to be a major rights war. ESPN tried to pull of a coup of the top product of the Big 12 in 2010. I expect a reprise of that attempt with even more secrecy and with only a few handling any exchange of information between networks and conferences and networks and prospective schools and conferences and prospective schools.

We'll know when it hits the crawler.
04-22-2018 12:03 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-22-2018 12:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 06:52 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 04:46 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Wasn't it Greg Sankey who more or less shut down Finebaum from talking about these things last year?

I can see certain media outlets trying to stir rumors up for the sake of page views as someone else mentioned, but you are right. It does seem that the decision makers have their lips sealed.

I would even theorize that Boren was playing a game designed to put pressure on Texas when he went public with all his statements the last couple of years. He was a politician after all and I doubt he was conducting business in the open.

Bump

Yes, they are all tight lipped. But then right now they are trying their best to figure out what's going to happen with the basketball situation, what's going to happen with stipend caps, and how to monetize the streaming.

But, everyone knows that there is about to be a major rights war. ESPN tried to pull of a coup of the top product of the Big 12 in 2010. I expect a reprise of that attempt with even more secrecy and with only a few handling any exchange of information between networks and conferences and networks and prospective schools and conferences and prospective schools.

We'll know when it hits the crawler.

And even then JR, it might not be accurate.
04-22-2018 08:56 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-22-2018 08:56 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 12:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 06:52 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 04:46 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Wasn't it Greg Sankey who more or less shut down Finebaum from talking about these things last year?

I can see certain media outlets trying to stir rumors up for the sake of page views as someone else mentioned, but you are right. It does seem that the decision makers have their lips sealed.

I would even theorize that Boren was playing a game designed to put pressure on Texas when he went public with all his statements the last couple of years. He was a politician after all and I doubt he was conducting business in the open.

Bump

Yes, they are all tight lipped. But then right now they are trying their best to figure out what's going to happen with the basketball situation, what's going to happen with stipend caps, and how to monetize the streaming.

But, everyone knows that there is about to be a major rights war. ESPN tried to pull of a coup of the top product of the Big 12 in 2010. I expect a reprise of that attempt with even more secrecy and with only a few handling any exchange of information between networks and conferences and networks and prospective schools and conferences and prospective schools.

We'll know when it hits the crawler.

And even then JR, it might not be accurate.

Well that's true. But since 2009 this has been the absolute quietest post tourney period we've had. In every other year as soon as basketball finished realignment news bubbled. Not now. Not from the twitterati, not from the network beat reporters, not from the talking heads on sports shows, not from the rogue college president, not from the commissioners, nothing.

With so much up in the air I don't find it at all strange except for the experience of it.

And at a time when so much is active with the networks, with the possible advent of new competition for rights, and as the footprint subscription model comes to a halt, I promise you that something is happening. But this time it's quiet because it's happening with those who are in charge of the news.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see something happen prior to the launch of the ACCN. But I equally wouldn't be surprised if 2024 came and went without anything being decided. Sometimes out of chaos comes creation, but sometimes out of chaos comes paralysis. If the networks see opportunity they'll act. If the networks see too much risk or uncertainty they will decide to act when they have more information and a better feel for the future. Either way something is happening, but it could be a large and sudden realignment move, or a new GOR for the Big 12 and another 10 years. That's a long time for us, but nothing in the life of a network.
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2018 10:59 PM by JRsec.)
04-24-2018 10:53 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-24-2018 10:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 08:56 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 12:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 06:52 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(04-16-2018 04:46 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Wasn't it Greg Sankey who more or less shut down Finebaum from talking about these things last year?

I can see certain media outlets trying to stir rumors up for the sake of page views as someone else mentioned, but you are right. It does seem that the decision makers have their lips sealed.

I would even theorize that Boren was playing a game designed to put pressure on Texas when he went public with all his statements the last couple of years. He was a politician after all and I doubt he was conducting business in the open.

Bump

Yes, they are all tight lipped. But then right now they are trying their best to figure out what's going to happen with the basketball situation, what's going to happen with stipend caps, and how to monetize the streaming.

But, everyone knows that there is about to be a major rights war. ESPN tried to pull of a coup of the top product of the Big 12 in 2010. I expect a reprise of that attempt with even more secrecy and with only a few handling any exchange of information between networks and conferences and networks and prospective schools and conferences and prospective schools.

We'll know when it hits the crawler.

And even then JR, it might not be accurate.

Well that's true. But since 2009 this has been the absolute quietest post tourney period we've had. In every other year as soon as basketball finished realignment news bubbled. Not now. Not from the twitterati, not from the network beat reporters, not from the talking heads on sports shows, not from the rogue college president, not from the commissioners, nothing.

With so much up in the air I don't find it at all strange except for the experience of it.

And at a time when so much is active with the networks, with the possible advent of new competition for rights, and as the footprint subscription model comes to a halt, I promise you that something is happening. But this time it's quiet because it's happening with those who are in charge of the news.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see something happen prior to the launch of the ACCN. But I equally wouldn't be surprised if 2024 came and went without anything being decided. Sometimes out of chaos comes creation, but sometimes out of chaos comes paralysis. If the networks see opportunity they'll act. If the networks see too much risk or uncertainty they will decide to act when they have more information and a better feel for the future. Either way something is happening, but it could be a large and sudden realignment move, or a new GOR for the Big 12 and another 10 years. That's a long time for us, but nothing in the life of a network.

Texas had 5 options to begin with:
B1G
PAC
SEC
ACC
Big 12


two realistically have been eliminated:
PAC
B1G


and then there were three........................
04-27-2018 11:22 PM
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The Grassy Nole Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-27-2018 11:22 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-24-2018 10:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 08:56 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 12:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-17-2018 06:52 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  Bump

Yes, they are all tight lipped. But then right now they are trying their best to figure out what's going to happen with the basketball situation, what's going to happen with stipend caps, and how to monetize the streaming.

But, everyone knows that there is about to be a major rights war. ESPN tried to pull of a coup of the top product of the Big 12 in 2010. I expect a reprise of that attempt with even more secrecy and with only a few handling any exchange of information between networks and conferences and networks and prospective schools and conferences and prospective schools.

We'll know when it hits the crawler.

And even then JR, it might not be accurate.

Well that's true. But since 2009 this has been the absolute quietest post tourney period we've had. In every other year as soon as basketball finished realignment news bubbled. Not now. Not from the twitterati, not from the network beat reporters, not from the talking heads on sports shows, not from the rogue college president, not from the commissioners, nothing.

With so much up in the air I don't find it at all strange except for the experience of it.

And at a time when so much is active with the networks, with the possible advent of new competition for rights, and as the footprint subscription model comes to a halt, I promise you that something is happening. But this time it's quiet because it's happening with those who are in charge of the news.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see something happen prior to the launch of the ACCN. But I equally wouldn't be surprised if 2024 came and went without anything being decided. Sometimes out of chaos comes creation, but sometimes out of chaos comes paralysis. If the networks see opportunity they'll act. If the networks see too much risk or uncertainty they will decide to act when they have more information and a better feel for the future. Either way something is happening, but it could be a large and sudden realignment move, or a new GOR for the Big 12 and another 10 years. That's a long time for us, but nothing in the life of a network.

Texas had 5 options to begin with:
B1G
PAC
SEC
ACC
Big 12


two realistically have been eliminated:
PAC
B1G


and then there were three........................

Where is the Texas goes Indy option? I still feel that is more viable than most would like to admit
04-30-2018 03:20 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-30-2018 03:20 PM)The Grassy Nole Wrote:  
(04-27-2018 11:22 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-24-2018 10:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 08:56 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 12:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Yes, they are all tight lipped. But then right now they are trying their best to figure out what's going to happen with the basketball situation, what's going to happen with stipend caps, and how to monetize the streaming.

But, everyone knows that there is about to be a major rights war. ESPN tried to pull of a coup of the top product of the Big 12 in 2010. I expect a reprise of that attempt with even more secrecy and with only a few handling any exchange of information between networks and conferences and networks and prospective schools and conferences and prospective schools.

We'll know when it hits the crawler.

And even then JR, it might not be accurate.

Well that's true. But since 2009 this has been the absolute quietest post tourney period we've had. In every other year as soon as basketball finished realignment news bubbled. Not now. Not from the twitterati, not from the network beat reporters, not from the talking heads on sports shows, not from the rogue college president, not from the commissioners, nothing.

With so much up in the air I don't find it at all strange except for the experience of it.

And at a time when so much is active with the networks, with the possible advent of new competition for rights, and as the footprint subscription model comes to a halt, I promise you that something is happening. But this time it's quiet because it's happening with those who are in charge of the news.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see something happen prior to the launch of the ACCN. But I equally wouldn't be surprised if 2024 came and went without anything being decided. Sometimes out of chaos comes creation, but sometimes out of chaos comes paralysis. If the networks see opportunity they'll act. If the networks see too much risk or uncertainty they will decide to act when they have more information and a better feel for the future. Either way something is happening, but it could be a large and sudden realignment move, or a new GOR for the Big 12 and another 10 years. That's a long time for us, but nothing in the life of a network.

Texas had 5 options to begin with:
B1G
PAC
SEC
ACC
Big 12


two realistically have been eliminated:
PAC
B1G


and then there were three........................

Where is the Texas goes Indy option? I still feel that is more viable than most would like to admit

That only happens with a rebuilt and weakened version of the current B12 (sans Oklahoma).
04-30-2018 04:28 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-30-2018 03:20 PM)The Grassy Nole Wrote:  
(04-27-2018 11:22 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-24-2018 10:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 08:56 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 12:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Yes, they are all tight lipped. But then right now they are trying their best to figure out what's going to happen with the basketball situation, what's going to happen with stipend caps, and how to monetize the streaming.

But, everyone knows that there is about to be a major rights war. ESPN tried to pull of a coup of the top product of the Big 12 in 2010. I expect a reprise of that attempt with even more secrecy and with only a few handling any exchange of information between networks and conferences and networks and prospective schools and conferences and prospective schools.

We'll know when it hits the crawler.

And even then JR, it might not be accurate.

Well that's true. But since 2009 this has been the absolute quietest post tourney period we've had. In every other year as soon as basketball finished realignment news bubbled. Not now. Not from the twitterati, not from the network beat reporters, not from the talking heads on sports shows, not from the rogue college president, not from the commissioners, nothing.

With so much up in the air I don't find it at all strange except for the experience of it.

And at a time when so much is active with the networks, with the possible advent of new competition for rights, and as the footprint subscription model comes to a halt, I promise you that something is happening. But this time it's quiet because it's happening with those who are in charge of the news.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see something happen prior to the launch of the ACCN. But I equally wouldn't be surprised if 2024 came and went without anything being decided. Sometimes out of chaos comes creation, but sometimes out of chaos comes paralysis. If the networks see opportunity they'll act. If the networks see too much risk or uncertainty they will decide to act when they have more information and a better feel for the future. Either way something is happening, but it could be a large and sudden realignment move, or a new GOR for the Big 12 and another 10 years. That's a long time for us, but nothing in the life of a network.

Texas had 5 options to begin with:
B1G
PAC
SEC
ACC
Big 12


two realistically have been eliminated:
PAC
B1G


and then there were three........................

Where is the Texas goes Indy option? I still feel that is more viable than most would like to admit

I left it out on purpose, because I don't think it's possible.
I also left out the one move that I think is most likely.....Texas joining the American as partial with Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU.
Tejas keeps the LHN, only plays the American teams it wants (they already have Tulsa, UCF and USF scheduled) but is able to get the American a pretty good jump in revenue.
It's as close to the SWC 2.0 as they will ever get and they are almost independent and still have a good basketball and baseball league to play other sports in.
04-30-2018 08:23 PM
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TerryD Online
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Post: #40
RE: Why You Won't Hear Rumors or Leaks When the Next Realignment Event Happens:
(04-30-2018 08:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-30-2018 03:20 PM)The Grassy Nole Wrote:  
(04-27-2018 11:22 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-24-2018 10:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-22-2018 08:56 AM)XLance Wrote:  And even then JR, it might not be accurate.

Well that's true. But since 2009 this has been the absolute quietest post tourney period we've had. In every other year as soon as basketball finished realignment news bubbled. Not now. Not from the twitterati, not from the network beat reporters, not from the talking heads on sports shows, not from the rogue college president, not from the commissioners, nothing.

With so much up in the air I don't find it at all strange except for the experience of it.

And at a time when so much is active with the networks, with the possible advent of new competition for rights, and as the footprint subscription model comes to a halt, I promise you that something is happening. But this time it's quiet because it's happening with those who are in charge of the news.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see something happen prior to the launch of the ACCN. But I equally wouldn't be surprised if 2024 came and went without anything being decided. Sometimes out of chaos comes creation, but sometimes out of chaos comes paralysis. If the networks see opportunity they'll act. If the networks see too much risk or uncertainty they will decide to act when they have more information and a better feel for the future. Either way something is happening, but it could be a large and sudden realignment move, or a new GOR for the Big 12 and another 10 years. That's a long time for us, but nothing in the life of a network.

Texas had 5 options to begin with:
B1G
PAC
SEC
ACC
Big 12


two realistically have been eliminated:
PAC
B1G


and then there were three........................

Where is the Texas goes Indy option? I still feel that is more viable than most would like to admit

I left it out on purpose, because I don't think it's possible.
I also left out the one move that I think is most likely.....Texas joining the American as partial with Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU.
Tejas keeps the LHN, only plays the American teams it wants (they already have Tulsa, UCF and USF scheduled) but is able to get the American a pretty good jump in revenue.
It's as close to the SWC 2.0 as they will ever get and they are almost independent and still have a good basketball and baseball league to play other sports in.

And here I thought that your position was that an "almost independent", with a good basketball and baseball league to play other sports in had no real value for the school in question.........
05-02-2018 01:18 PM
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