(04-19-2018 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (04-19-2018 08:40 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote: (04-19-2018 08:29 AM)stever20 Wrote: from the article-
According to Wilner’s projections for 2018, distributions of more than $50 million would give the Big Ten a sizable revenue advantage over schools from the SEC (approximately $43 million each), the Big 12 ($36.5 million), the Pac-12 ($32 million) and the ACC ($28 million).
Can't imagine FSU being happy about making half what Northwestern does.....
Like I said, should be some "interesting" negotiations in the next few years....
This is old news, as we've already been made aware of the Michigan letter projecting $50m + payout next year. Nothing new in this article.
Of course it does remain important news, because if those projections do come true, everything the author says about revenue gaps will be correct, which could lead to instability within the P5 from schools in under-paid conferences.
There are a couple of things to note. The SEC could realize some more money in 2024, when its deal with CBS expires. That could bring in some new dollars, though not huge dollars. Also, the Comcast- NYC stuff being talked about here could impact the B1G negatively.
But, that said, what appears most likely is that, thanks to Delany's foresight, the B1G will be making a good $10m more than the SEC. To me, that's the comparison that irks the most. You can't really blame Swofford for the ACC not making as much, because the ACC just isn't as inherently valuable as the B1G. But, the B1G should not be making any more than the SEC does. If it does, that's due to bad SEC leadership.
Call me crazy, but I could see even the SEC be threatened - if the B1G is making $10m + a year more than the SEC, the B1G could be tempting to a Kentucky.
The figures for the Big 10 in 2018 are correct. Where Wilner missed the boat, conveniently for his tease line of swamping the SEC in revenue, is in two places.
1. 2017 the SEC didn't receive Sugar Bowl money due to the CFP rotation. Last year's earnings would normally have been around 43.7 million instead of 40.9 million. The SEC contract accrues at a rate of about 2 million a year. Hence we appeared stagnant because of the bowl money. Next year 2018 the SEC will be earning closer to 46 million and that is without factoring in the Altice deal and the spread of our carriage.
So the Big 10 will likely be 5 million ahead of the SEC in TV rights money in 2018. But, the SEC outpaces the Gross Revenue production of the Big 10 by about 15 million per school on average per year. So the B1G will close the "real" gap in total revenue which Wilner knows and fails to mention to around a 10 million dollar deficit to the SEC at the end of 2018.
2. Wilner touts the Big 10's ability to renew a contract in 2023. But Wilner fails to mention that the most undervalued contract still in existence, the contract between CBS Sports and the SEC for the SEC's T1 rights is up in 2024. So it is the SEC that will be stepping up to the plate a year after the new Big 10 numbers are known.
And of course it is estimated that the Big 10 will lose 2% of its expected revenue from Comcast and that is not factored in either.
And finally, the ACC and SEC both enjoy renegotiation clauses in their media contracts with ESPN. If either of us adds schools before 2024 those clauses will kick in and then the rest of the SEC's T2 and T3 may be renegotiated, and if the ACC adds any all of their rights will be renegotiated.
So let's wrap this up. In 2018 the Big 10 will be making around 51 million. The SEC will be making around 46. The SEC will still be out earning Big 10 schools by around 10 million each from all sources of revenue of which TV rights amount to between a 1/4th to 1/5th of the gross total revenue.
And the conditions of the other three P conferences will be an unknown rather than a static quantity. The ACC will have network in 2019 which should overtake the PAC handsomely, and they will have the right to renegotiate existing contracts with additions.
The PAC may choose to sell the ownership of their network for carriage and receive a nice bump for doing so.
Texas with its T3 rights already makes over 50 million in TV revenue and Oklahoma makes around 41 with T3. So there will be no overwhelming pressure on either of the two schools who lead the Big 12 to do anything they don't want to do.
I will be a happy camper when this board wakes up and smells the coffee on media deals. They are a significant part of total revenue, but are only about 20 to 25% of it. Therefore how much TV money a conference earns doesn't carry enough weight to make any substantive difference in that conference's fortunes.
Thanks to the Big 10 we all will be getting raises when we renew or renegotiate. So I'm happy for them in that regard. But the reality is even if the Big 10 made 10 million more in TV revenue they'd still be 5 million behind in total revenue. But instead they will enjoy around a 5 million dollar advantage plus or minus 1 million in TV revenue alone. They have had that advantage and more in the past. This is nothing new.
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Big Ten's Rights Deal Threatens To Widen Financial Gap Between Even The Biggest Confe
