Also re. FIU, though they've hit twice as many HRs as us, with 5 different players with 8+ HRs, they've hit fewer doubles and triples than us. This appears to indicate that they are fly ball hitters (following the MLB trend up upper-cut swinging). They are also aggressive, free-swingers, with low BB frequency and relatively high strikeout frequency.

On the flip side, their staff is averaging better than a strikeout per IP, and one of our weaknesses on offense has been our high strikeout frequency, even against pitchers who are averaging as little as 0.5 strikeouts per IP.

(05-14-2018 04:54 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Also re. FIU, though they've hit twice as many HRs as us, with 5 different players with 8+ HRs, they've hit fewer doubles and triples than us. This appears to indicate that they are fly ball hitters (following the MLB trend up upper-cut swinging). They are also aggressive, free-swingers, with low BB frequency and relatively high strikeout frequency.

On the flip side, their staff is averaging better than a strikeout per IP, and one of our weaknesses on offense has been our high strikeout frequency, even against pitchers who are averaging as little as 0.5 strikeouts per IP.

Interesting about your fly-ball theory. Could be an interesting match-up between their aggressive hitters and our wild hare bullpen; perhaps they will be out of their comfort zone if they have to be patient at the plate.

Our offense has struggled all year with power and batting w/ RISP. Increasing the strikeout rate would be exactly the worst case scenario for us. This might actually be the optimal time to deploy some small ball that has been (rightly) lampooned so far this year.

Updated Standings after today:

7) Rice 11-14-2 .444
8) UAB 12-16 .429
9) MT 11-16-1 .411
10) WKU 11-17 .393

Here's a couple scenarios for after tomorrow: Let's say we go 1-1 tomorrow, MT beats UAB, and FAU beats WKU:

7) Rice .448
8) MT .431
9) UAB .414
10) WKU .379

If Rice goes 0-2, UAB beats MT, and WKU beats FAU:

7) UAB .448
8) WKU .414 (w/ tiebreak over Rice)
9) Rice .414
10) MT .396

Someone correct me if I'm wrong (did well in STAT280, pulled a gentleman's B in 310), but I think Rice is in if we win one game this weekend and WKU loses one more. That seems to be the path of least resistance to guaranteeing us a spot.


The scenario that gets us in if we're swept by FIU remains (I think): WKU getting swept by FAU and either UAB winning 2/3 or MT sweeping. MT can't win 2/3 even if WKU gets swept.