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Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
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Post: #21
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
I see all the asst ADs are back out again...
05-14-2018 06:55 PM
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dan o Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-14-2018 03:35 PM)3601 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 02:41 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  Planning on heading to Columbia, MO,,,,,,,4 hours away

It takes more than 4 hours by automobile.

Its probably 4 hours at an average of 100 mph
05-14-2018 08:38 PM
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mairving Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-14-2018 03:35 PM)3601 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 02:41 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  Planning on heading to Columbia, MO,,,,,,,4 hours away

It takes more than 4 hours by automobile.

Not if you don't live in Memphis.
05-14-2018 08:46 PM
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cmt Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
Well, just wait for Norvell to move on, if we get bad again, we will have an easier time getting P5 games. Let's be happy we are where we are.
05-14-2018 09:41 PM
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Post: #25
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-14-2018 08:46 PM)mairving Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 03:35 PM)3601 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 02:41 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  Planning on heading to Columbia, MO,,,,,,,4 hours away

It takes more than 4 hours by automobile.

Not if you don't live in Memphis.
05-15-2018 07:33 AM
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dan o Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-14-2018 02:11 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  We need a better schedule,but schedules are often planned years in advance and it is difficult to forecast the strength of a team. For example, I surmise schools that scheduled us as an easy win years ago have a different perspective now.

Our scheduling reputation in both major sports suggests this is more than just an isolated occurrence
05-15-2018 08:35 AM
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mrwigglesby2121 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-14-2018 03:18 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 02:46 PM)mrwigglesby2121 Wrote:  Going the Boise St. route (early years) might not be the worst if getting into a P5 is the long term goal.

Otherwise the focus should be scheduling P5 schools from the north that would be interested in creating a footprint in the south for recruiting. Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn St. Although those would most likely be losses, they would give UofM much needed exposure. In order for that to work w/ those schools, most likely we would need to give 2 away games for every one home game. We might also need to look at a neutral site (Nashville - Titan's stadium) to accommodate the excess crowd and make it more attractive, although the Liberty Bowl isn't too shabby. The four teams mentioned average 100k per home game and the Liberty Bowl can't accommodate that.

Realistically, they should target Michigan St, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Illionois, etc; the tier 2/3 of the north P5 schools. Improve SOS and perhaps get a win.

What does any tier 2/3 team gain by playing Memphis?

It has been proven the past 3 years that we beat good teams @ home. No P5 schools really need a SOS boost and it won't be a big TV game

In my OP I stated a northern team would be interested in creating a recruiting footprint into the south; the location of Memphis permits this, Nashville permits this. I assume you are aware that a majority of elite college football players reside in the south. Expanding further, it allows the northern teams to escape the cold Oct/Nov.

Can Memphis alone create a footprint into the south for Wisconsin? No. But if the AD's in the AAC approached Wisconsin with the opportunity to play in Memphis, Houston, UCF, USF over a 4 year period... well, that just might be fairly attractive to them. Do the same with Iowa, Indiana, Syracuse, Boston College, etc. Memphis could have one tier1a or tier 2/3 P5 team on the schedule every year. Ole Miss needs to stay on. Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn, go, go schedule them too.

As for Nashville, that would need to be an elite northern opponent for Memphis to make it happen and be worthwhile for the game. Notre Dame, OSU, Michigan, Penn St., I'm willing to bet 20,000 UofM fans can show up for that, and of course those elite programs travel well, so the TV would be there. In exchange Memphis would most likely not be paid to travel to their home stadiums. And again, 2 for 1. Two games at the shoe over the next 10yrs and 1 game in Nashville. If you can get a home game in Memphis too, well, icing on the cake.

I recall UofM beating UCLA at home when ranked top 25, #25 I believe, but I don't recall UofM beating any top 15 P5 opponents at home since Tennessee back in the late 90's, I could definitely be wrong though.

Two kinds of people in this world: those that find ways to make things happen, and those that finds reasons for things not to happen. Which one are you/we/UofM?
(This post was last modified: 05-15-2018 09:32 AM by mrwigglesby2121.)
05-15-2018 09:31 AM
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Post: #28
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 09:31 AM)mrwigglesby2121 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 03:18 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 02:46 PM)mrwigglesby2121 Wrote:  Going the Boise St. route (early years) might not be the worst if getting into a P5 is the long term goal.

Otherwise the focus should be scheduling P5 schools from the north that would be interested in creating a footprint in the south for recruiting. Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn St. Although those would most likely be losses, they would give UofM much needed exposure. In order for that to work w/ those schools, most likely we would need to give 2 away games for every one home game. We might also need to look at a neutral site (Nashville - Titan's stadium) to accommodate the excess crowd and make it more attractive, although the Liberty Bowl isn't too shabby. The four teams mentioned average 100k per home game and the Liberty Bowl can't accommodate that.

Realistically, they should target Michigan St, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Illionois, etc; the tier 2/3 of the north P5 schools. Improve SOS and perhaps get a win.

What does any tier 2/3 team gain by playing Memphis?

It has been proven the past 3 years that we beat good teams @ home. No P5 schools really need a SOS boost and it won't be a big TV game

In my OP I stated a northern team would be interested in creating a recruiting footprint into the south; the location of Memphis permits this, Nashville permits this. I assume you are aware that a majority of elite college football players reside in the south. Expanding further, it allows the northern teams to escape the cold Oct/Nov.

Can Memphis alone create a footprint into the south for Wisconsin? No. But if the AD's in the AAC approached Wisconsin with the opportunity to play in Memphis, Houston, UCF, USF over a 4 year period... well, that just might be fairly attractive to them. Do the same with Iowa, Indiana, Syracuse, Boston College, etc. Memphis could have one tier1a or tier 2/3 P5 team on the schedule every year. Ole Miss needs to stay on. Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn, go, go schedule them too.

As for Nashville, that would need to be an elite northern opponent for Memphis to make it happen and be worthwhile for the game. Notre Dame, OSU, Michigan, Penn St., I'm willing to bet 20,000 UofM fans can show up for that, and of course those elite programs travel well, so the TV would be there. In exchange Memphis would most likely not be paid to travel to their home stadiums. And again, 2 for 1. Two games at the shoe over the next 10yrs and 1 game in Nashville. If you can get a home game in Memphis too, well, icing on the cake.

I recall UofM beating UCLA at home when ranked top 25, #25 I believe, but I don't recall UofM beating any top 15 P5 opponents at home since Tennessee back in the late 90's, I could definitely be wrong though.

Two kinds of people in this world: those that find ways to make things happen, and those that finds reasons for things not to happen. Which one are you/we/UofM?

Ole miss was like 3 seasons ago.
05-15-2018 09:44 AM
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Post: #29
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
Go undefeated and you get a big boy bowl. Strength doesn't matter.
05-15-2018 09:47 AM
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SouthernBlue Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 08:35 AM)dan o Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 02:11 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  We need a better schedule,but schedules are often planned years in advance and it is difficult to forecast the strength of a team. For example, I surmise schools that scheduled us as an easy win years ago have a different perspective now.

Our scheduling reputation in both major sports suggests this is more than just an isolated occurrence

It does seem to me that our current AD has chosen to schedule this way to have 7 home games each year.

Really it would only take one modest change to upgrade our current schedule. Instead of 3 lower level schools and 1 p6 school, schedule 1 SunBelt/CUSA school , 1 FBS school, 1 lower level p5 or MAC or Mountain West school, and 1 p5 school each year.

This one change if we schedule a decent strength of schedule school, improves our fan interest and our chances to be ranked and enter into the conversations about the access bowl. As it is, this year if we go undefeated we will still have a hard time getting to the access bowl because of the weakness of our schedule.

For example this year we have Georgia State and South Alabama, 2 Sun Belt schools. The AD should have scheduled one of them, plus any 1 of:
a lower level p5 (Kansas),
a MAC school
or a Mountain West school.

You can not tell me that they could not have found a Kansas, a MAC school (Bowling Green) or a Mountain West school to play us home and home.
(This post was last modified: 05-15-2018 10:05 AM by SouthernBlue.)
05-15-2018 10:02 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 09:47 AM)fsquid Wrote:  Go undefeated and you get a big boy bowl. Strength doesn't matter.


that's quite a small margin of error, and a big ask
05-15-2018 10:09 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-14-2018 12:59 PM)cotton1991 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 12:52 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  We need a certain number of home games every season. Most P5 teams wont play us 1 for 1. Some will. Most wont. Some of the teams that usually do dont want to play us when we are good.

So you end up with GA State and USA

Rather have USM and UAB on the schedule than those two.

Honest question - why?
Not much of an upgrade in SOS.
Road trips, Atlanta + Mobile > Hattiesburg + Birmingham.
Won't see much change in attendance.
Recruiting areas is probably a wash.
Old time rival? Meh. There's some nostalgia there, but not much equity in it.
05-15-2018 10:14 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-14-2018 01:30 PM)WColt45 Wrote:  First, we can't control how good or bad our conference mates are. Problem is, we're in a division that outside of Houston, isn't perceived as being that great.

Second, even the OOC games are harder to schedule with P5 teams. We're too good to be an easy win for most, they'd have to struggle to beat us at best, therefore they gain nothing by either coming here into a loud environment that the LB has become in recent years, or by potentially getting beat by a non P5 school at home.

Now, I'll agree we probably could've done better than South Alabama, Georgia State, and Missouri... but the AD doesn't get the total blame in this one. At this point, the schedule is what it is, you just try to win every game you can and let the chips fall where they may. Honestly, until the conference renegotiates bowl tie ins, whats the difference whether it is the Frisco Bowl or the St Petersburg bowl?

According to Sagarin, the AAC West was the top G5 division in all of football. Even came in ahead of the group of Independents with Notre Dame, Army, BYU.

I'm not sure the OOC SOS has anything to do with the bowl we end up with anyway.
05-15-2018 10:19 AM
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Post: #34
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 10:09 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(05-15-2018 09:47 AM)fsquid Wrote:  Go undefeated and you get a big boy bowl. Strength doesn't matter.


that's quite a small margin of error, and a big ask

don't have to rely on others if you do it that way.
05-15-2018 10:23 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 09:31 AM)mrwigglesby2121 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 03:18 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(05-14-2018 02:46 PM)mrwigglesby2121 Wrote:  Going the Boise St. route (early years) might not be the worst if getting into a P5 is the long term goal.

Otherwise the focus should be scheduling P5 schools from the north that would be interested in creating a footprint in the south for recruiting. Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn St. Although those would most likely be losses, they would give UofM much needed exposure. In order for that to work w/ those schools, most likely we would need to give 2 away games for every one home game. We might also need to look at a neutral site (Nashville - Titan's stadium) to accommodate the excess crowd and make it more attractive, although the Liberty Bowl isn't too shabby. The four teams mentioned average 100k per home game and the Liberty Bowl can't accommodate that.

Realistically, they should target Michigan St, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Illionois, etc; the tier 2/3 of the north P5 schools. Improve SOS and perhaps get a win.

What does any tier 2/3 team gain by playing Memphis?

It has been proven the past 3 years that we beat good teams @ home. No P5 schools really need a SOS boost and it won't be a big TV game

In my OP I stated a northern team would be interested in creating a recruiting footprint into the south; the location of Memphis permits this, Nashville permits this. I assume you are aware that a majority of elite college football players reside in the south. Expanding further, it allows the northern teams to escape the cold Oct/Nov.

Can Memphis alone create a footprint into the south for Wisconsin? No. But if the AD's in the AAC approached Wisconsin with the opportunity to play in Memphis, Houston, UCF, USF over a 4 year period... well, that just might be fairly attractive to them. Do the same with Iowa, Indiana, Syracuse, Boston College, etc. Memphis could have one tier1a or tier 2/3 P5 team on the schedule every year. Ole Miss needs to stay on. Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn, go, go schedule them too.

As for Nashville, that would need to be an elite northern opponent for Memphis to make it happen and be worthwhile for the game. Notre Dame, OSU, Michigan, Penn St., I'm willing to bet 20,000 UofM fans can show up for that, and of course those elite programs travel well, so the TV would be there. In exchange Memphis would most likely not be paid to travel to their home stadiums. And again, 2 for 1. Two games at the shoe over the next 10yrs and 1 game in Nashville. If you can get a home game in Memphis too, well, icing on the cake.

I recall UofM beating UCLA at home when ranked top 25, #25 I believe, but I don't recall UofM beating any top 15 P5 opponents at home since Tennessee back in the late 90's, I could definitely be wrong though.

Two kinds of people in this world: those that find ways to make things happen, and those that finds reasons for things not to happen. Which one are you/we/UofM?

I think the idea of a scheduling consortium is a great idea. I've been saying we G5 schools need to do more of this kind of thing in football and basketball. I'd like to see a MWC-AAC rotation for 1 game a year in football.

However, when we're trying to get 7 home games with one P5 game a year, scheduling is like winning basketball games - hard! You have 4 OOC games, and you're trying to get 3 of them at home. Every year.

I see no benefit to a Nashville game. Our crowd would be down and the visitors crowd might be up. The stadium capacity is not that much greater. If you have Wisconsin come to Nashville - you're not getting the big 4 you mention above - we may travel with 20k. Do you expect them to bring 45k? The only way this makes sense is if you get a big tv tie-in (unlikely).
05-15-2018 10:34 AM
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SouthernBlue Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 09:47 AM)fsquid Wrote:  Go undefeated and you get a big boy bowl. Strength doesn't matter.

The access bowl is not a given, even if we are undefeated. If there is a higher ranked team ahead of us, say a Boise St with only one loss and a tougher schedule, they would probably get in ahead of us. Strength of schedule does matter because it impacts our ranking.
05-15-2018 10:53 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 10:02 AM)SouthernBlue Wrote:  It does seem to me that our current AD has chosen to schedule this way to have 7 home games each year.

Really it would only take one modest change to upgrade our current schedule. Instead of 3 lower level schools and 1 p6 school, schedule 1 SunBelt/CUSA school , 1 FBS school, 1 lower level p5 or MAC or Mountain West school, and 1 p5 school each year.

This one change if we schedule a decent strength of schedule school, improves our fan interest and our chances to be ranked and enter into the conversations about the access bowl. As it is, this year if we go undefeated we will still have a hard time getting to the access bowl because of the weakness of our schedule.

For example this year we have Georgia State and South Alabama, 2 Sun Belt schools. The AD should have scheduled one of them, plus any 1 of:
a lower level p5 (Kansas),
a MAC school
or a Mountain West school.

You can not tell me that they could not have found a Kansas, a MAC school (Bowling Green) or a Mountain West school to play us home and home.

The issue with your scheduling philosophy is you won't get 7 home games doing it that way. Breaking it down:

Sunbelt/CUSA - Probably not a buy. Best you could do is 2 homes for 1 away.
FCS (you said FBS, but pretty sure you meant FCS) - Buy game. Guaranteed home game every year.
Lower level P5 or MWC (MAC does not belong in this grouping) - Home/home is best case.
P5 - Since you didn't qualify this as lower level, I'm assuming you mean high level. Impossible to get consistently. Best case is 1 home for 2 aways.

Add that up and BEST CASE is 7 games every other year. More likely 7 games every 3-4 years. And it increases the risk of us taking losses and disqualifying ourselves form the Access Bowl.

And you're dead wrong that we can't make the Access this year with this SOS. If the AAC champ goes undefeated, we will be in the Access. Bank on it.
05-15-2018 11:26 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 10:09 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(05-15-2018 09:47 AM)fsquid Wrote:  Go undefeated and you get a big boy bowl. Strength doesn't matter.


that's quite a small margin of error, and a big ask

Sure it is. They have 60-some of us G5 teams vying for 1 bowl slot. It's a big ask every year. But it's our only shot. You start playing road games against "name" opponents and end up with a loss or two, you have a much lower shot at the Access. Good news is that in the AAC we have a much better shot than MAC, MWC, CUSA teams. We control our own destiny. They have to rely on AAC teams taking losses during the season.
05-15-2018 11:29 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 10:53 AM)SouthernBlue Wrote:  
(05-15-2018 09:47 AM)fsquid Wrote:  Go undefeated and you get a big boy bowl. Strength doesn't matter.

The access bowl is not a given, even if we are undefeated. If there is a higher ranked team ahead of us, say a Boise St with only one loss and a tougher schedule, they would probably get in ahead of us. Strength of schedule does matter because it impacts our ranking.

You're discounting the in-conference SOS. That's where we make it up, compared to a Boise. It would be a very rare case for a 1-loss MWC team to get in ahead of an undefeated AAC team. A couple of OOC games will not offset a softer 8-game conference schedule.

You are wrong. An AAC undefeated is a given.
05-15-2018 11:31 AM
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SouthernBlue Offline
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RE: Strength of Schedule for Football - Last in Conference
(05-15-2018 11:26 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(05-15-2018 10:02 AM)SouthernBlue Wrote:  It does seem to me that our current AD has chosen to schedule this way to have 7 home games each year.

Really it would only take one modest change to upgrade our current schedule. Instead of 3 lower level schools and 1 p6 school, schedule 1 SunBelt/CUSA school , 1 FBS school, 1 lower level p5 or MAC or Mountain West school, and 1 p5 school each year.

This one change if we schedule a decent strength of schedule school, improves our fan interest and our chances to be ranked and enter into the conversations about the access bowl. As it is, this year if we go undefeated we will still have a hard time getting to the access bowl because of the weakness of our schedule.

For example this year we have Georgia State and South Alabama, 2 Sun Belt schools. The AD should have scheduled one of them, plus any 1 of:
a lower level p5 (Kansas),
a MAC school
or a Mountain West school.

You can not tell me that they could not have found a Kansas, a MAC school (Bowling Green) or a Mountain West school to play us home and home.

The issue with your scheduling philosophy is you won't get 7 home games doing it that way. Breaking it down:

Sunbelt/CUSA - Probably not a buy. Best you could do is 2 homes for 1 away.
FCS (you said FBS, but pretty sure you meant FCS) - Buy game. Guaranteed home game every year.
Lower level P5 or MWC (MAC does not belong in this grouping) - Home/home is best case.
P5 - Since you didn't qualify this as lower level, I'm assuming you mean high level. Impossible to get consistently. Best case is 1 home for 2 aways.

Add that up and BEST CASE is 7 games every other year. More likely 7 games every 3-4 years. And it increases the risk of us taking losses and disqualifying ourselves form the Access Bowl.

And you're dead wrong that we can't make the Access this year with this SOS. If the AAC champ goes undefeated, we will be in the Access. Bank on it.

Thanks for the input. What you may makes sense. By the P5 i was thinking of the schools we already are scheduling, Ole Miss, Miss State, Missouri. I believe that they are all home and home.

I do think that we could follow the scheduling i suggested and alternate each year with either 6 or 7 home games. The value of the tougher schedule when we have 6 home games would offset the loss of a home game. It would be offset by higher fan interest, better tv opportunities and a higher ranking in the polls.

I am not sold on your assertion that an undefeated AAC champ is assured of the Access Bowl. I am not sure that history backs up your assurance.
05-15-2018 11:59 AM
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