https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/wvu...0c5f3.html

Some quotes from WVU Gordon Gee on the Big 12's recent look at expansion and future realignment (he expects to occur in 6-7 years).

This past week, some within the media stirred up the idea the Big 12 could add programs like Arizona and Arizona State from the struggling Pac-12.

“I hear all of that,” Gee said. “And I feel very confident in our league. I do hear other people mentioning us as the place to go. It is the flipped narrative. I don’t think any of these things will happen immediately but I do think there will be a realignment of the major athletic conferences in six or seven years.”

The Mountaineers, after all, are serious geographic outliers from other Big 12 schools. Yet Gee said he believes West Virginia is in good shape.

“Oh yeah,” he said. “We’ve become very competitive. People need to look around. The ACC is a great conference but it’s been struggling in a number of areas. The Pac-12 has been having terrible struggles.

“With us, I think we’ve brought a great deal to the Big 12. Being in the Eastern time zone we’ve brought the league exposure. We have one of the most recognizable logos in the country, if not the world. We have some of the most passionate fans.

“The one issue, of course, is the distance. I think, though, we’ve managed that very well. But the main thing is our teams are consistently very competitive. We’re able to recruit athletes who know they can come to WVU and run competitively against the best or swim competitively. That’s been very important in the athletic arena.”

West Virginia President on old Big 12 expansion craze: “It was a little bit messy”
https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.co...bit-messy/

Is expansion still possible for Big 12? Why new chairman thinks conference's current size is positive
https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...e-positive

No P4 member wants to join the B12

It’s too bad the Big 12 couldn’t swing FSU/GT/Clemson/Miami as was rumored several years back. That truly would have been a better conference than the current ACC

With both the PAC and Big 12 struggling, I wonder if the best of the PAC and best of Big 12 break off to form a new power conference in 6 or 7 years.

Maybe USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington from the PAC. TEX, oklahoma, Kansas from the Big 12. Plus 3 more schools to be named later. Who knows, maybe they could even talk Nebraska into joining.

Good luck with the States of Oregon and Washington being ok with OSU and WSU being left out of anything UW or Oregon might be in on.

In 7 years the GOR of the B12 ends. The P12 will have a completely new media setup in 2023, as everything (yes everything) is on the table.

For the remainder of the GOR the B12 is locked into a fixed payment schedule, which pays them for 12 power schools, although they have only 10. That pretty much precludes adding anyone as that would reduce revenue per school. That was the deal they made to keep them from using the escalator to add two G5 schools. The revenue of the B12 is fully maximized, it is what it is. (Texas and OU can almost keep up with the SEC and B1G for the next several years with their teir-3 deals)

The point about the P12 contracts coming up is they wont being going down, rather up, and 2023 is likely to be very different. How is hard to say, but different.

What is important about 7 years is the GOR ends, and 5 years out a school is likely to start negotiating their next contract location. And we all have a >90% belief OU is going to leave. (As discussed many times, power conferences expansion only takes one school per state, as you need to maximize reach, recruiting, and return ... so oSu wont be going with OU.) Gee is almost certainly referring to OU.

As for the ASU and Arizona moving theory, the timing of the contracts in the P12 and the next GOR for that league do not align with the B12's open window, and OU's likely departure changes the dynamic. The difference in revenue even now between the P12 and B12 is not that much ($34M in the "maxed out" B12 take to $31M in the inefficient P12), not enough to make a 100 year decision, especially when you know you break you California and your cross state attachments (only one school from any state will be taken in an expansion). Not going to happen.

Gee knows this better than anyone. He is not speaking of the Arizona when he is talking about realignment in 5 to 7 years. The school that fits that timeline is Oklahoma.

One small point, the Big 12 is not being paid for 12 schools with just 10. What happened after they lost members was FOX and ESPN agreed to keep payments the same even with 10 and no championship as that was pretty much what was required to save the league.

Since then though, the Big 12 has signed new contracts. The networks are paying what they thought the conference was worth at that time.

One wonders if Gordon Gee will ever get over his shyness and start talking to the media...

(05-27-2018 12:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  No P4 member wants to join the B12

No one wants to go there as the league is currently aligned because Texas and OU keep sending dog whistles to other conferences. But if the B12 were to attract a couple of other P5 schools, would Texas and OU then recommit to the league, making the league instantly stable?

It’s my gut feeling that Texas and Oklahoma will stay together in the b12 or whatever name it might become

='Stugray2' pid='15317955' dateline='1527487956']
What is important about 7 years is the GOR ends, and 5 years out a school is likely to start negotiating their next contract location. And we all have a >90% belief OU is going to leave. (As discussed many times, power conferences expansion only takes one school per state, as you need to maximize reach, recruiting, and return ... so oSu wont be going with OU.) Gee is almost certainly referring to OU.
[/quote]

Nice post. However, I disagree with your statement that power conference expansion takes only one school per state. The SEC would take both Texas and Tech in a heartbeat. They also would most likely take OU and OSU as a pair. (JRsec has explained the rationale for this many times.) The PAC would also very likely jump at the chance to get Texas, Tech, OU and OSU.

(05-28-2018 12:09 AM)Lopes87 Wrote:  Good luck with the States of Oregon and Washington being ok with OSU and WSU being left out of anything UW or Oregon might be in on.

It would be interesting to see how long Oregon and Washington would hold out if it was becoming obvious they were being left behind.

Lets say USC,UCLA, Cal, and Stanford join Tex, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska in a new power conference. Then the new power conference offers invites to Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Colorado only. How long would oregon and Washington hold out if they know they would be left in a PAC with WSU, OSU, ASU, and Utah?

Given the growth of Austin in the past few years and Texas overall, I think the Big 12 is safe. Florida and Carolina regions are also growing. So all it takes is the addition of a Florida pair, UC, Memphis, or an ECU. Also Houston in the backyard. These are schools that solidify and expand the existing footprint for new cable TV or subscription viewing deals. It's not the end of the world for the Big 12...

The SEC is basically saturated. The areas of growth are the mid tier markets. The local TV markets, and the untapped markets where college football remains largely irrelevant.

I think if you can start filling stadiums in Boston and New York and Philli with teams like Texas, OU, OSU and USC, you will have a natural organic growth of the sport. To accomplish that, you need to get rid of the regional biases, and for that, we need revolutions in transportation like hyperloops and stuff to bridge the distances. Other than that, I think the national popularity of the sport has topped.

The four team semifinal model, as long as we don't get years with 2-3 SEC teams in the Final Four every year, is the most optimal model on the national scale. However, there is room for growth on regional and local levels.

(05-28-2018 11:37 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Given the growth of Austin in the past few years and Texas overall, I think the Big 12 is safe. Florida and Carolina regions are also growing. So all it takes is the addition of a Florida pair, UC, Memphis, or an ECU. Also Houston in the backyard. These are schools that solidify and expand the existing footprint for new cable TV or subscription viewing deals. It's not the end of the world for the Big 12...

The SEC is basically saturated. The areas of growth are the mid tier markets. The local TV markets, and the untapped markets where college football remains largely irrelevant.

I think if you can start filling stadiums in Boston and New York and Philli with teams like Texas, OU, OSU and USC, you will have a natural organic growth of the sport. To accomplish that, you need to get rid of the regional biases, and for that, we need revolutions in transportation like hyperloops and stuff to bridge the distances. Other than that, I think the national popularity of the sport has topped.

The four team semifinal model, as long as we don't get years with 2-3 SEC teams in the Final Four every year, is the most optimal model on the national scale. However, there is room for growth on regional and local levels.

Obviously as a Cincinnati alum I’d be down with that, but in reality I do not see that happening unless/until the better brands leave the Big 12. They could have had those schools a couple years ago when the networks were contractually obligated to pay a pro rata share for those additions but they elected to negotiate a buyout of the clause.

" The ACC is a great conference but it’s been struggling in a number of areas."

Since WVU joined The Big 12 in 2012, The ACC has won 22 National Championships.

2 football, 2 men's soccer, 2 women's soccer, 2 men's basketball, 1 women's basketball, 1 baseball, 3 men's lacrosse, 3 women's lacrosse, 1 women's golf, 1 women's rowing, 4 men's tennis

The Big 12 has won:

1 women's basketball, 1 equestrian, 1 men's cross country, 3 women's gymnastics, 2 men's golf, 1 women's track and field, 3 men's swimming and diving, 3 softball, 1 volleyball

That's 16 National titles for The Big 12.

Of Big 4 Titles (Football, Men's Basketball, Women's Basketball, Baseball).....Big 12 one / ACC six
The ACC has made every college football playoff. The Big 12 has been shutout of two of the four college football playoffs and is yet to win a game.


So if The ACC is struggling it isn't on the field or court. Maybe he's talking about conference income. Presently The Big 12 is being paid not to expand. The ACC's income will pass The Big 12 in 2019.

Someone should ask Gordon why The Big 12 hasn't extended its GOR.

No one from a P5 conference is interested in joining The Big 12. The nimrod leaders of The Big 12 like Gordon Gee look down their noses at programs like Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida and South Florida. Programs that would stabilize their rickety conference. Senile Gee needs to worry about The Big 12's future not The PAC or ACC.
CJ

Note: Edited to include Notre Dame Women winning the NCAA Basketball Championship last season. Thanks TerryD for the heads up

I also tend to disagree with the one school per state theory. The networks want conferences to be broad but not necessarily include every school in the state because if a conference controls a whole state the only way the network could penetrate the state is through them. If the SEC were to raid the ACC and take Florida St and Miami then they would completely own the Sunshine State. The ACC could backfill with USF and UCF but those programs have much smaller market shares than the teams they'd be replacing.

A&M leaving the Big 12 severely curtailed the strength of the conference because they no longer own the state of Texas.

(05-28-2018 06:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I also tend to disagree with the one school per state theory. The networks want conferences to be broad but not necessarily include every school in the state because if a conference controls a whole state the only way the network could penetrate the state is through them. If the SEC were to raid the ACC and take Florida St and Miami then they would completely own the Sunshine State. The ACC could backfill with USF and UCF but those programs have much smaller market shares than the teams they'd be replacing.

A&M leaving the Big 12 severely curtailed the strength of the conference because they no longer own the state of Texas.

Disagree. A&M moving helped the SEC far more than it hurt the Big 12. The Big 12 still more or less owns Texas. Similarly, FSU is more valuable to the ACC than it would be to the SEC.

(05-28-2018 05:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  " The ACC is a great conference but it’s been struggling in a number of areas."

Since WVU joined The Big 12 in 2012, The ACC has won 21 National Championships.

2 football, 2 men's soccer, 2 women's soccer, 2 men's basketball, 1 baseball, 3 men's lacrosse, 3 women's lacrosse, 1 women's golf, 1 women's rowing, 4 men's tennis

The Big 12 has won:

1 women's basketball, 1 equestrian, 1 men's cross country, 3 women's gymnastics, 2 men's golf, 1 women's track and field, 3 men's swimming and diving, 3 softball, 1 volleyball

That's 16 National titles for The Big 12.

Of Big 4 Titles (Football, Men's Basketball, Women's Basketball, Baseball).....Big 12 one / ACC five
The ACC has made every college football playoff. The Big 12 has been shutout of two of the four college football playoffs and is yet to win a game.


So if The ACC is struggling it isn't on the field or court. Maybe he's talking about conference income. Presently The Big 12 is being paid not to expand. The ACC's income will pass The Big 12 in 2019.

Someone should ask Gordon why The Big 12 hasn't extended its GOR.

No one from a P5 conference is interested in joining The Big 12. The nimrod leaders of The Big 12 like Gordon Gee look down their noses at programs like Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida and South Florida. Programs that would stabilize their rickety conference. Senile Gee needs to worry about The Big 12's future not The PAC or ACC.
CJ

ND won the national championship this season in women's basketball.

I don't see it listed. That is one more for the ACC.

(05-28-2018 10:24 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(05-27-2018 12:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  No P4 member wants to join the B12

No one wants to go there as the league is currently aligned because Texas and OU keep sending dog whistles to other conferences. But if the B12 were to attract a couple of other P5 schools, would Texas and OU then recommit to the league, making the league instantly stable?

It doesn't actually have to be two P5 members. It could be a program like Arkansas or Nebraska and a program like Colorado State.