(06-12-2018 06:10 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 01:33 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  We have to define what a pure millennial is.

-Born after 1980 at the very least.
-They aren't on a serious professional track (medicine, engineering, law)
-They do no commute over an hour to work (urban living)
-They do not own a house greater than 2500 sq.ft.
-They shop in a mall less than once a month.

Once you've removed all the traditional and baby boomer influences then you have your pure millennial.

-Dog walking, either walking their own dog or somebody else's for money.
-Experimenting in the kitchen three hours a night like a TV chef.
-Taking a $35 dollar uber ride across town.
-Making snarky social comments over a social media app.
-Phone video games (women play a word puzzle game to say they don't play games)

How are they able to make a strategic investment in a spectator sport when they can't make a strategic investment in themselves?

These people in the past would have started up a young family (providing a source for the next generation of athlete), commuted long hours for a big house and flipped on the boob tube with the remaining energy they have, becoming a die hard fan of whatever was shown to them on TV.

Actually, you may be over rating this particular group.


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But that's a very small group. It's like saying that everyone born in the 40s & 50s was a free-loving, pot-smoking hippie. In fact, less than 10% of that generation was actually hippies.

90% of Boomers were average Americans who voted and lived just like their parents. Just like 90% of Millennials.

You can almost go by decade as to what percentage of the new generation did exactly what their parents did career wise going back to the 50's where almost everyone trained in their parents profession.

50's -95 percent.
60's -85 percent.
70's -75 percent.
80's -65 percent.
90's -55 percent.
00's -45 percent.
10's -35 percent.

A lot of this of course is the rise of IT and Medicine as parts of our economy but not very many are working in the same profession as their parents these days.

The millennials have access to learning about careers on the internet and are not loading in with large families. That does make things different.

(06-12-2018 05:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Judge approves AT&T merger with Time Warner, a ruling that may reshape how we pay for streaming
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/busi...story.html

How may this deal impact the P5 conferences? Can it impact future realignment?

(06-12-2018 08:07 PM)connecticutguy Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 05:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Judge approves AT&T merger with Time Warner, a ruling that may reshape how we pay for streaming
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/busi...story.html

How may this deal impact the P5 conferences? Can it impact future realignment?

This is going to be interesting, not sure how it is going to affect most people.


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(06-12-2018 10:44 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Great article: https://medium.com/ipg-media-lab/the-unr...ive-sports

The 10% figure is misleading when it doesn't count for the numbers moving into the non-pay category.

In 2016 its 201 million of 250.2 million consumers on pay TV

In 2021 its projected to be 181.7 million of 262.7 million on pay TV

The growth of non-pay TV over 5 years is 65%. If the current rates hold the non-pay category will overtake the pay category within a decade. Media executives if they want growth will move into the streaming market aggressively.

(06-12-2018 05:42 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 01:33 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  We have to define what a pure millennial is.

-Born after 1980 at the very least.
-They aren't on a serious professional track (medicine, engineering, law)
-They do no commute over an hour to work (urban living)
-They do not own a house greater than 2500 sq.ft.
-They shop in a mall less than once a month.

Once you've removed all the traditional and baby boomer influences then you have your pure millennial.

-Dog walking, either walking their own dog or somebody else's for money.
-Experimenting in the kitchen three hours a night like a TV chef.
-Taking a $35 dollar uber ride across town.
-Making snarky social comments over a social media app.
-Phone video games (women play a word puzzle game to say they don't play games)

How are they able to make a strategic investment in a spectator sport when they can't make a strategic investment in themselves?

These people in the past would have started up a young family (providing a source for the next generation of athlete), commuted long hours for a big house and flipped on the boob tube with the remaining energy they have, becoming a die hard fan of whatever was shown to them on TV.

You left out the biggest description: They still live in their parents house avoiding reality.

Or maybe because they are tens of thousands of dollars in student loan debt and can't afford to live where the jobs are since the cities around the country are becoming harder and harder to get a cheap apartment in.

But no, it must just because they are lazy right?

I think the fact that you have to be on a serious track to be able to have a decent size home/entertainment system in a suburban area is important. It’s that small % of millenials that are the counterweight to the group at large.

If you’re in that class you probably have a lot less hours in your day, and the wife can either stay home with the kids or both of you are workoholics and don’t watch TV anyhow, but you still pay for the cable and watch the games on a Sunday.

Nothing really competes with live sports though. The sports are staggered in such a way that there is not a lot of overlaps. Saturday Sunday for college/pro. March Madness, then NBA. Maybe a World Cup or Olympics sandwiched in there. Technically, when there is no equivalent competitor, you can’t go wrong with paying a premium for the rights in this environment.

The overlap is really October with MLB and NFL but the interest is waning overall from the 2000’s highs. I think those sports go through cycles like all sports in terms of the players, teams and interest levels. Certainly, Lebron is a generational player that is must watch.

I think live sports are still the gold standard for TV, but you got to wonder... even about the price of gold these days.

(06-12-2018 02:14 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 01:47 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 01:00 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 12:42 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 10:44 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Great article: https://medium.com/ipg-media-lab/the-unr...ac5cad0fef

Cliffnotes:
TV ratings for all live sports are down except MLB, NBA, and MLS. Live sports consumption is going down across the board, for 4 reasons:
1) Youth sports participation is down across the board - link to a great article on that
2) Millenials are less interested in sports than Gen Ex or Boomers
3) Millenials are turning to E-sports
4) Cord cutting (this has been described ad nauseam on this forum)
5) The rise of the highlight reel as the primary form of sports consumption

So ratings are constant or improving for three sports that have international following and appeal across multiple demographics

NFL is down off incredible highs.

NHL is down for a sport that traditionally is followed by white blue collar fans and international appeal basically doesn't exist outside of northern Europe.

One might think the ratings are simply a reflection of the shifting demographics of the US.

That's part of it, although my general pet peeve with these types of stories is that they never seem to provide the context that TV ratings for non-sports programs are dropping even faster. This particular article had a fleeting general reference to that as being a long-term trend but didn't provide specifics of the past year. Sports have definitely retained a lot more viewers compared to every other type of program on TV. It used to be that the old ABC Monday Night Football was a top 20-ish TV program every week (highly rated, but substantially behind multiple scripted shows in the ratings), while today's NBC Sunday Night Football is the #1 TV program by far every single week. The *relative* power of sports compared to everything else on TV still stronger than ever.

Now, I do agree that younger generation generally doesn't sit to watch a 3-hour game anymore. Being a "sports fan" in the future is going to be checking your favorite team's highlights and following/liking them on YouTube/Facebook/Twitter/ESPN App as opposed to being a season ticket holder or watching full games on TV. Once again, though, my issue with these types of alarmist articles is that they don't ever put out that the younger generation doesn't sit to watch 3 hours of *anything* anymore. They're getting *everything* (entertainment, news, etc.) in small bites on social media or on-demand viewing on streaming platforms. So, it's important to note that the *relative* power of sports of getting young people to watch a full game is still larger than any other form of content. An NBA Playoff game has received the highest age 18-49 TV rating for virtually every single evening that at least one game has been on since April across *all* of television (whether broadcast or cable), which shows the power of sports. The NFL is even more powerful in that regard.

I'm not so sure attending games is as doomed as people think.

If you ever get bored, search ebay or image search google for old ticket stubs for major games then input the ticket price into an inflation calculator. It's staggering.

We went from X dollars is the price whether you are on the 50 near the field or upper end zone corner. Donations determined which at many schools or just I ordered season tickets before you did.

Now we have crazy prices that vary by location and amenity but what we haven't seen much of is prices for that non-donor end zone or corner seat coming back in line with what they were 30 or 40 years ago.

One place where affordability still exists is not the NFL but in MLS and depending on the market, there are really affordable deals in NBA, NHL, and MLB. If I had been so inclined, I could have gone to the Grizzlies - Suns last season for less than an AState home game. I went to a Dallas Stars game and could have been in the building for less than promotion admission to A-State football.

Quite a few MLS teams have end zone sections reserved for the louder and younger fans at a cheap price. Nearly every Sporting KC home game I see people scrounging trying to find extras in the cheap section.

That's the future. The person sitting center ice or midcourt or behind home plate really isn't going to walk away from their high priced ticket because someone can get in the building for $7 and sit in the upper deck or the outfield.

What MOST lost sight was the price point that maximizes revenue today, isn't the price point that maximizes revenue for 2033 when you are replacing many of your current season ticket holders.

I don't think going to live games is doomed, but I also live in a market (Chicago) where ticket prices for the Bears, Bulls, Cubs and Blackhawks remain very high in the secondary market. The White Sox are the team that actually should be selling $7 tickets for the upper deck, yet they still artificially make their face value ticket prices much higher than they ought to be (which may be a function of being a team in a large market).

I can just speak anecdotally about myself (as someone that is a little too old to be a Millennial but also on the very youngest side of Generation X): I used to want to go to as many games in person as possible for the least expensive price possible, but now I'd rather splurge for good seats for a small handful of games every year. I've reached the point where "time is money" for me, so if I'm spending an entire day going to and from a game, I want to make it worth it. That actually seems to be more of the Millennial mentality from my observations: paying a premium for fewer but more intense experiences (which goes for restaurants, vacations and other activities on top of sporting events) as opposed paying lower amounts for more frequent bulk experiences.

One difference is that everything is on TV now. So the in person experience needs to be a premium, especially once you are out of school and have more money.

(06-12-2018 04:58 PM)Wedge Wrote:  LOL.

Is there anything for which old people don't blame "millennials"? What a lazy take.

Lazy take? I spent the last 10 years before I retired trying to fix the myriad of things they screwed up. They as a rule have the attention span of a gnat, try to fake their way through things they don't understand rather than admit they need instruction, spend way too much time on electronic devices and have the poorest social skills I've ever witnessed in my somewhat long life.

In short Wedge, as a generation they are what folks in the Old South would refer to as "worthless"! Personally I blame the totally bloated and ineffectual public education system and a prevailing culture of deny responsibility and assign blame. Nothing is ever their fault and they are always the victim of something or someone else and they never read instructions but that's not their fault either because the instruction were "too long".

Sorry buddy but they deserve all the crap they get. That said the few I've found to be competent are extremely so but they are few and far between. I'd give them any help I could and write recommendations for promotions. What I found to be universally true of them is that most came from rural situations and already had an accountability and work ethic.

So my estimation is that if I am fortunate enough to need assisted living one day that I will die as the result of some millennial caretaker who doesn't read the damned instructions on medications, if they even bother to read the name on the prescription to make sure it is mine. BTW that example has already happened to relatives of near friends.

Peace brother! But don't try to sell me on virtues where I see few!

I think another issue that have not been mentioned in the article of when so many natural disaster that takes place. If it is hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes. flooding, sever storms with winds and so forth that knock out power for a long time. People sometimes don't have power for weeks. We had no power after an ice storm for over a week. Look at PR? It is almost a year now, and many people still have no power after the hurricane.

(06-12-2018 08:07 PM)connecticutguy Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 05:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Judge approves AT&T merger with Time Warner, a ruling that may reshape how we pay for streaming
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/busi...story.html

How may this deal impact the P5 conferences? Can it impact future realignment?

These are the 3 big moves we are hearing.

-AT&T buying Time Warner. AT&T now becomes an ISP selling the pipe.
-Comcast counter offer for Fox. Comcast can control the regional distribution model.
-T-Mobile buying Sprint. T-Mobile has Layer TV already to compete with Comcast.

The long term migration is going to be to broadband with each provider having its "house" brand of streaming content (e.g. Comcast with NBC) they will give you cheap and then will offer add-on agreements with premium channels. Broadband with its family plans will win out over ISP in the economy of scale.

It will probably keep IPTV prices high since they have to go through clearance with the conglomerates to put together a package. That means the conglomerates can increase their stand alone prices above the IPTV but giving deals with vertical integration of mobile service.

This means profits will continue to roll in for the conglomerates. Conference TV deals however are going to have to be structured so the biggest properties have their own streaming rights. There will be less growth in the per school TV deals.

PAC is having some issues right now because they have tried to follow the B1G network model which worked for the B1G because of the huge alumni bases. They are disadvantaged in recruiting located in the western 1/3rd of the country.

Could the B12 do the unthinkable and pull loose Arizona State? Then pair them with BYU to get back to a numeric 12 members. If the revenue is going to be greater with third tier deals allowed and the competitive level consistently much higher in basketball and usually in football? Arizona and Utah are growth states so I can see where the B12 could want a piece of that.

It seems like the B1G could add a lot of value with a Kansas/UConn combination. It makes B1G basketball must watch TV. If you have Kansas you don't need Mizzou at all for their market value. UConn gives you another piece of the East Coast media market.

I think the ACC schools are going to be reluctant to leave tied the east coast media markets. Unless the SEC makes a pitch for Florida State and Clemson.

(06-12-2018 09:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think the fact that you have to be on a serious track to be able to have a decent size home/entertainment system in a suburban area is important. It’s that small % of millenials that are the counterweight to the group at large.

If you’re in that class you probably have a lot less hours in your day, and the wife can either stay home with the kids or both of you are workoholics and don’t watch TV anyhow, but you still pay for the cable and watch the games on a Sunday.

That is what it takes these days to live an Upper Middle Class lifestyle.

Gone are the days where you could major in anything, get a job that your fraternity brother referred you to, work like gangbusters for 5 years and start pulling a six figure income with five figure bonuses.

Now you'll be banging your head against the wall at 35k, going to grad school at night to land a stable 80k office job. Its just a lot harder than it was. National recruiting for candidates. Technology that has outdated a lot of roles.

I know of guy who made a living selling hotels TVs with built in clock radios. He said people have become too savvy with their money to make sales like that.

Some of it I heard in the medical sales is all the regulations. It restricts what vendors labs can purchase from. Guys that were pulling 300k doing it are struggling to find jobs.

(06-12-2018 09:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 04:58 PM)Wedge Wrote:  LOL.

Is there anything for which old people don't blame "millennials"? What a lazy take.

Lazy take? I spent the last 10 years before I retired trying to fix the myriad of things they screwed up. They as a rule have the attention span of a gnat, try to fake their way through things they don't understand rather than admit they need instruction, spend way too much time on electronic devices and have the poorest social skills I've ever witnessed in my somewhat long life.

In short Wedge, as a generation they are what folks in the Old South would refer to as "worthless"! Personally I blame the totally bloated and ineffectual public education system and a prevailing culture of deny responsibility and assign blame. Nothing is ever their fault and they are always the victim of something or someone else and they never read instructions but that's not their fault either because the instruction were "too long".

Sorry buddy but they deserve all the crap they get. That said the few I've found to be competent are extremely so but they are few and far between. I'd give them any help I could and write recommendations for promotions. What I found to be universally true of them is that most came from rural situations and already had an accountability and work ethic.

So my estimation is that if I am fortunate enough to need assisted living one day that I will die as the result of some millennial caretaker who doesn't read the damned instructions on medications, if they even bother to read the name on the prescription to make sure it is mine. BTW that example has already happened to relatives of near friends.

Peace brother! But don't try to sell me on virtues where I see few!

Yes, Millennials are such screwups...

https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/arti...llennials/

(06-12-2018 06:55 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  You can almost go by decade as to what percentage of the new generation did exactly what their parents did career wise going back to the 50's where almost everyone trained in their parents profession.

50's -95 percent.
60's -85 percent.
70's -75 percent.
80's -65 percent.
90's -55 percent.
00's -45 percent.
10's -35 percent.

A lot of this of course is the rise of IT and Medicine as parts of our economy but not very many are working in the same profession as their parents these days.

The millennials have access to learning about careers on the internet and are not loading in with large families. That does make things different.

A millenial who grew up in my home town who wants to do their work their parents did in many cases would have immigrate to Malaysia or Indonesia to work in a shirt factory, Vietnam to make bathroom fixtures, Mexico to make refrigerators, or become a robot because the ice cream factory has laid off four out of five people in automating or find a way to get farmers to buy smaller and less sophisticated equipment.

The son of the mechanic my dad used for decades closed the garage and switched to welding full time because so much of auto repair is plug in play and it was hard to stock a lot of what he needed.

There are virtually no jobs that you can go into a job as a high school grad and work your way up learning. The local utility doesn't hire apprentice linemen and teach them job, oh hell no. Now you have to go to the local community college and pay for two years of training and then if you are lucky you can work for the utility as an "apprentice" at less money (adjusted for inflation) than the guys who started out knowing nothing 30 years ago but odds are you won't even get on with the utility, instead you will start with a contractor and only get called in to work when there is a storm or the highway department needs to move lines for an expansion.

Many cities, you can't even get a job, full or part-time driving a cab for someone, you have to have your own car to drive for Uber and/or Lyft. If you can't afford a reasonably new car, you can't do that.

You can work as a security guard but you won't be working for the company where you are sent to work because they don't want to waste paid leave and health insurance on security guards, so you work for someone who has the contract and when you work your way up to making a decent wage someone will come in and offer to do it for less so your company lays you off and the new company will hire you but as a new hire at $3 to $5 less per hour than you were making before and the same goes for being janitor.

Did anybody actually sit for 3 hours in the old days?

(06-12-2018 10:33 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 09:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 04:58 PM)Wedge Wrote:  LOL.

Is there anything for which old people don't blame "millennials"? What a lazy take.

Lazy take? I spent the last 10 years before I retired trying to fix the myriad of things they screwed up. They as a rule have the attention span of a gnat, try to fake their way through things they don't understand rather than admit they need instruction, spend way too much time on electronic devices and have the poorest social skills I've ever witnessed in my somewhat long life.

In short Wedge, as a generation they are what folks in the Old South would refer to as "worthless"! Personally I blame the totally bloated and ineffectual public education system and a prevailing culture of deny responsibility and assign blame. Nothing is ever their fault and they are always the victim of something or someone else and they never read instructions but that's not their fault either because the instruction were "too long".

Sorry buddy but they deserve all the crap they get. That said the few I've found to be competent are extremely so but they are few and far between. I'd give them any help I could and write recommendations for promotions. What I found to be universally true of them is that most came from rural situations and already had an accountability and work ethic.

So my estimation is that if I am fortunate enough to need assisted living one day that I will die as the result of some millennial caretaker who doesn't read the damned instructions on medications, if they even bother to read the name on the prescription to make sure it is mine. BTW that example has already happened to relatives of near friends.

Peace brother! But don't try to sell me on virtues where I see few!

Yes, Millennials are such screwups...

https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/arti...llennials/

That's a fine article Nerdlinger and there is much truth in it. But it doesn't change my experiences from 2000 until my retirement in dealing with this generation.

What the article does point out however isn't focused enough. When I was younger Tennessee Ernie Ford had a song called 16 Tons. You need to listen to it on U-tube. The old company store has been replaced by a hostile takeover of everything private by corporate America run amok. It is why those of your generation have no safety net, no security, and few prospects. The only jobs are corporate jobs and they make sure you don't stay long enough to be vested in some pension program and that your health care is little more than supplemental insurance. And God forbid you file to often on it because that might lead to a termination for some other reason.

I've seen it building for years and Obama and Bush did little because both parties rely on the corporate lobby money and campaign contributions that make what you or I could give them meaningless.

So no it's not the fault of Boomers, or X'ers or generation Y and it's not the fault of the WWII generation. We were all diminished by what has transpired but I agree that Millennials have it the worst. Our representation, or rights, and our dignity have been sold to political payola and the robber barons are back in full force. As Jefferson would say, "A little revolution is a good thing now and then." Corporations need to be reigned in with anti-trust legislation and we need a Teddy Roosevelt type to do it and they are few and far between and even if they got elected Congress (both sides) would do everything in their power to make them look foolish.

What I said about Millennials is from experience. Their academic records could be top notch, but that didn't mean they knew anything, even in their degree field. It's truly sad but I blame the schools (high school & university) for becoming diploma mills for cash.

The only thing I know to do is to help those who ask for it and teach them as best as I can to be self sufficient. As with some of my grandkids I've tried to help them find things they love to do and then encourage or support their efforts to be self employed. It is after all a safe way to happiness if it can be done. Corporate life now is a new form of slavery and no it offers no safety nets and thrives in states where no reason for termination is required.

(06-12-2018 10:27 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 09:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think the fact that you have to be on a serious track to be able to have a decent size home/entertainment system in a suburban area is important. It’s that small % of millenials that are the counterweight to the group at large.

If you’re in that class you probably have a lot less hours in your day, and the wife can either stay home with the kids or both of you are workoholics and don’t watch TV anyhow, but you still pay for the cable and watch the games on a Sunday.

That is what it takes these days to live an Upper Middle Class lifestyle.

Gone are the days where you could major in anything, get a job that your fraternity brother referred you to, work like gangbusters for 5 years and start pulling a six figure income with five figure bonuses.

Now you'll be banging your head against the wall at 35k, going to grad school at night to land a stable 80k office job. Its just a lot harder than it was. National recruiting for candidates. Technology that has outdated a lot of roles.

I know of guy who made a living selling hotels TVs with built in clock radios. He said people have become too savvy with their money to make sales like that.

Some of it I heard in the medical sales is all the regulations. It restricts what vendors labs can purchase from. Guys that were pulling 300k doing it are struggling to find jobs.

That's the problem with measuring things relative to other people. The bar keeps moving as the country gets richer (and we ARE getting richer - that's indisputable by anyone who evaluates the facts without a political bias).

In the 1960s, upper middle class meant two cars in the driveway and a picket fence on a quarter acre of paradise.

In the 1990s, upper middle class meant two cars, a garage for each car, summer camp for the kids, annual trips to Florida, and a half acre of paradise.

Today, upper middle class means a car for every family member, a garage spot for every car and another for the zero-turn lawnmower, a gardener, a nanny, summer "experiences" in exotic locales for your teenage kids, 2-3 vacations a year to either Florida, Napa, or Colorado, and 3/4 acre of paradise.

(06-12-2018 10:33 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Yes, Millennials are such screwups...

https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/arti...llennials/

Its a good read.

My question is will real estate prices eventually come down if the professional economy collapses?

I was looking at beach houses yesterday. Everything is taking at least a 20% price cut before its moving. Prices are propped up by high end developers that raise the average price for a zip code with luxury fixtures. That then floats up the price of more affordable units.

Some of the tax policies like the ability to deduct 1 million in home mortgage interests has contributed to the run up of real estate. The new law dropping the mortgage deduction to 750k plus the 10,000 combined SALT deduction makes going in for pricey real estate less attractive.

(06-12-2018 08:45 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(06-12-2018 10:44 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Great article: https://medium.com/ipg-media-lab/the-unr...ive-sports

The 10% figure is misleading when it doesn't count for the numbers moving into the non-pay category.

In 2016 its 201 million of 250.2 million consumers on pay TV

In 2021 its projected to be 181.7 million of 262.7 million on pay TV

The growth of non-pay TV over 5 years is 65%. If the current rates hold the non-pay category will overtake the pay category within a decade. Media executives if they want growth will move into the streaming market aggressively.

Streaming and pay TV are often one and the same. I suspect the streaming subscription is going to be the most successful model in the future (followed closely by pay cable, Ad supported OTA, and then ad supported streaming).

1, 4, and 5 make a great deal of sense. The other two really dont