Side Show Joe
Hall of Famer
Posts: 10,005
Joined: Mar 2010
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I Root For: North Texas
Location: TEXAS
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RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-15-2018 11:40 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (06-15-2018 10:08 AM)Side Show Joe Wrote: (06-15-2018 09:59 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote: (06-15-2018 09:51 AM)Side Show Joe Wrote: (06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote: Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.
Even with the growth, Boise's market is still small time. The PAC can't lure Texas, Oklahoma or any other Big 12 program. The only real options for them are big Texas universities in big Texas markets. Houston is their best option right now, but they need a partner.
The only other larger Texas universities in large markets are North Texas, UTEP, and UTSA. None of the three currently have similar budget numbers or the recent history of success on the field that Houston does. Of the three named, North Texas is closest in budget, winning, student enrollment, and alumni size. None of the PAC's Texas options, including Houston, have the academics desired by the PAC, and I know at least Houston and North Texas are both Tier 1 research universities. I just don't see the PAC ready to expand with these options. 5 or 10 years down the road, they may feel differently, or have better options.
I know Rice is openly campaigning for a spot in the PAC. They are the only Texas university with the academics the PAC is looking for, but they are a very small private school with a very small alumni base. In the Houston market, U of H just makes more sense.
Source?
My brother is a Rice season ticket holder. His wife works at Rice and in her job she works with the athletic department. Rice wants very badly to move to the PAC. Having said that, the PAC doesn't view Rice as an option right now.
Because of this, I have an idea about what it might take to gain the PAC's interest. I think two large Texas universities with athletic budgets in the neighborhood of $60-$65 million and board approved plans for stadium expansion, would show a real commitment, and be hard for the PAC to pass up, even if the academics are not at the level the PAC would like. Houston is only a few million from reaching the athletic budget number, and has a nice new stadium that I'm sure they can expand. North Texas is still about $25 million away from reaching the athletic budget number, but that could change within the next few years. UNT's athletic department is growing revenue at a very fast rate (more then doubled our athletic budget within the past 8 years). North Texas also has a nice new stadium and plans for expanding it.
TDECU is expandable to 60K. My feeling is that the Pac12 knows they need the Texas market to be competitive in revenue long term. Other than California---their footprint is pretty lightly populated and they have multiple teams in multiple small states. Due to geography, Texas is the only place in the west where the Pac12 can pick enough population to make a difference.
They know all this. They know Houston and another Texas school could adequately work long term (the association would obviously make these added schools even more popular in the state over time). But---thats a fall back position. They want the Longorns. When it comes to UT, the Pac12 is like Ahab and the White Whale. I think they were intending to make one more run at UT in 2023-2024. But....I believe they thought the Pac12 Network would be doing much better than it is by now. If the disparity continues to grow as predicted, they may start second guessing waiting that long. Frankly, I dont think Texas will end up leaving the Big12. The Big12 fits them well and having just 10 members has made B12 membership quite lucrative for Texas (especially when you consider the extra bucks from the LHN--which the Pac12 would never allow).
I agree, the PAC wants Texas. And, I agree, they will never get them.
At some point in the next 10 years, I expect the PAC to move to plan "B". I think the Big 12's media deal runs through 2024. So, they should sign their new deal before that one ends (2022-23). When Texas signs on to the next deal, the PAC will probably give up on their dreams of adding Texas. When that happens the PAC will probably look at other Texas options. I think they realize the PAC becomes a much more lucrative conference if they can claim the 5th and 7th largest media markets in America. Also, their ability to host a few more early kickoff in the central time zone should increase their value too. And, playing in Texas is always good for recruiting.
At that point the only real Texas options for the PAC are in Houston, DFW, and San Antonio. Enrollment, alumni numbers, athletic budgets, on the field success, and facilities will determine which two programs get the call. I think Houston will be a lock. And, right now, I'd say North Texas is in the lead for the other spot.
If the PAC is going to move on a couple of Texas programs, I think we will hear rumblings by 2023, and the likely candidates will be known by 2026. Just my opinion.
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