RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
And yet the draft went like this (listing players and their 2017 ranking coming out of High School)
1. DeAndre Ayton (FR) #4
2. Marvin Bagley (FR) #1
3. Luka Doncic (= FR) International
4. Jaren Jackson Jr. (FR) #8
5. Trae Young (FR) #23
6. Mohamed Bamba (FR) #3
7. Wendell Carter (FR) #7
8. Collin Sexton (FR) #5
9. Kevin Knox (FR) #11
10. Mikal Bridges (JR*) <-- four years ago #81 prospect
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FR) #31
12. Miles Bridges (SO) <-- two years ago #12 prospect (chose to stay a 2nd year at Michigan St, drafted about same slot)
13. Jerome Robinson (JR) <-- three years ago not in top 100 prospects
14. Michael Porter (FR) #2 %
15. Troy Brown (FR) #13
16. Zhaire Smith (FR) International, so not ranked among US High School prospects
17. Donte DiVincenzo (SO*) <-- three years ago not in top 100 prospects
18. Lonnie Walker (FR) #16
others:
24. Lonnie Walker (no college = FR) <-- not listed, but was a top 15-20 prospect if he had gone to college
27. Robert Williams (SO $) <-- two years ago #61
36. Mitchell Robinson (FR, didn't play &) #9
41. Jarred Vanderbilt (FR) #12
45. Hamidou Diallo (FR) #10
Trevon Duval (FR) #6 <-- undrafted
Brandon McCoy (FR) #14 <-- undrafted
* was red shirted, so listed a class younger
% Porter had same back surgery as Steve Kerr's botched operation. Dropped him 10-12 spots
$ Williams decided not to attend the NBA combine, resulting in his dropping from 13th (lottery) to 27th pick ... don't skip the combine!
& Robinson went to WKU for 2 weeks in summer, felt it was a mistake, dropped out. NCAA rules made him sit a year, so he decided to prep for the NBA draft. Like Williams, his actions were considered a red flag dropping him from a lottery pick to 2nd round.
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What we see is one and done dominate the NBA, including two Euro players. HS prospects 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,16,23,31
Prospects #6 and #14 went undrafted.
13 of the first 18 were Freshmen, and another was a one-year out of HS European player. Of those 13 Freshmen, 11 were ranked in the top 16 coming out of high school. But of note, 3 of the top 16 dropped out of the 1st round (two from Kentucky), and 2 fell completely out of the draft. This demonstrates a risk rate of roughly 1/3rd of High School top 16 rated players, and only 2 other pushed their way on the list from further down (#23 and #31) plus two European background players who were essentially Freshmen. We also had a strange case of a late lottery pick staying in school a 2nd year because he liked it so much, and who got drafted about the same spot he would have been last year (kudos to Tom Izzo).
The one thing the one and done rule allows is for the NBA to sort the top 15-20 prospects out of High School to see if they can actually play and develop. Anyone ranked further down than that should seriously look at staying in school 2 or 3 years to develop enough to be draft worthy (proof is in Mikal Bridges, Jerome Robinson, and everyone drafted 17-28 excepting the two Walkers who were Freshmen).
My opinion of draft picks after about 40th is they are either for your G-League team (and some 2-ways) or a Euro stash player. The draft effectively ended at the 40th pick.
Anyway, my take away is the NCAA is the best testing ground for top 20 one and done players. But without that, the NBA really needs to figure out a way to pay the top two dozen prospects coming out of high school and yet developing them. The NBA teams really need to see if these guys can handle the professional life for a year, and whether they focus on developing or not. I don't know how you do that via allocation to G-League teams, as teams will be reluctant to develop players who will not be on their team. The only other way would be to run a couple of NBA academy teams in the G-League, or perhaps one team with 20 players, each of whom plays half a G-League season or 25 games (they play 50, but you don't need a full 50 to evaluate players -- college teams play maybe 35 including the tournament, but it includes 8-10 really low caliber ones). Paying them $50K and working them out in an NBA controlled academy might be the best approach, and it gets them out of the AAU world.
Anyway, there is no perfect solution. But we have to assume one-and-done is gone, and it's going to be two years in college or straight to an NBA academy or International league. Eventually you'd like to maybe incorporate the USA Youth National team to get them out of the AAU world as Juniors and Seniors as well.
Lots to consider, just throwing out some observations.
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