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NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #21
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
(06-20-2018 12:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 10:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 05:13 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 02:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 01:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  I'm pretty sure it would get ruled unconstitutional. But with only a year delay, its not worth it to fight it like Spencer Haywood did in the 70s when it was a 4 year delay. He won an injunction at the Supreme Court. The NBA then settled.

Supreme Court denied cert in the Clarett case. Haywood case the CBA didn't address draft eligibility so it really isn't a relevant case.

If that's the law then it's a dumb law. The union and the league should not be able to bargain away the rights of people who are not part of the union and not part of the league.

Happens with many union contracts. People hired while a union contract is in force are bound by it even if they hadn't been hired when it was adopted.

But they are categorically denying 18 year olds the right to earn a living. They are effectively a monopoly conspiring to deny a group of people rights. It simply wouldn't stand if it went to the Supreme Court.

I think the broader issue is whether or not a private entity has the right to set its own requirements with which to deem a person employable.

Technically, they are categorically denying me the right to earn a living because I'm not tall and athletic enough.
06-20-2018 03:53 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #22
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
(06-19-2018 05:13 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 02:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 01:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 07:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-18-2018 08:58 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  If it is in the approved collective bargaining agreement it is OK. That's why Maurice Clarett's anti-trust suit against the NFL failed.

I think chargeradio's assessment may be correct. It may be legal. But IMO that would have to be settled by a court - maybe even SCOTUS.

Let me give a (slightly) more extreme rule that could potentially be collectively bargained. Let's say that the owners and players collectively agree that no one can play in the NBA until they have been out of high school for 4 years, not just one or two. At some point, the reasonableness of the restriction has to come into play. I don't believe a court would let that stand. And, in deciding that 4 years is unreasonable, they might make their ruling broad enough to allow all high school graduates to go straight to the NBA.

I think the main reason that one-and-done has not been challenged may be that it has been deemed not worth the cost and effort by players right out of high school, given the assumption that they can find other ways to monetize their talents without having to go overseas for a year or playing for peanuts in the G-League.

I'm pretty sure it would get ruled unconstitutional. But with only a year delay, its not worth it to fight it like Spencer Haywood did in the 70s when it was a 4 year delay. He won an injunction at the Supreme Court. The NBA then settled.

Supreme Court denied cert in the Clarett case. Haywood case the CBA didn't address draft eligibility so it really isn't a relevant case.

If that's the law then it's a dumb law. The union and the league should not be able to bargain away the rights of people who are not part of the union and not part of the league.

But isn't that the premise of any union contract?

Not saying it's right, just saying if a union doesn't have the ability to determine entrance eligibility then the company can undermine the union by hiring anyone it wants, whenever it wants, for whatever wages they want to pay.
06-20-2018 04:04 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #23
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
(06-20-2018 04:04 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 05:13 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 02:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 01:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 07:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  I think chargeradio's assessment may be correct. It may be legal. But IMO that would have to be settled by a court - maybe even SCOTUS.

Let me give a (slightly) more extreme rule that could potentially be collectively bargained. Let's say that the owners and players collectively agree that no one can play in the NBA until they have been out of high school for 4 years, not just one or two. At some point, the reasonableness of the restriction has to come into play. I don't believe a court would let that stand. And, in deciding that 4 years is unreasonable, they might make their ruling broad enough to allow all high school graduates to go straight to the NBA.

I think the main reason that one-and-done has not been challenged may be that it has been deemed not worth the cost and effort by players right out of high school, given the assumption that they can find other ways to monetize their talents without having to go overseas for a year or playing for peanuts in the G-League.

I'm pretty sure it would get ruled unconstitutional. But with only a year delay, its not worth it to fight it like Spencer Haywood did in the 70s when it was a 4 year delay. He won an injunction at the Supreme Court. The NBA then settled.

Supreme Court denied cert in the Clarett case. Haywood case the CBA didn't address draft eligibility so it really isn't a relevant case.

If that's the law then it's a dumb law. The union and the league should not be able to bargain away the rights of people who are not part of the union and not part of the league.

But isn't that the premise of any union contract?

Not saying it's right, just saying if a union doesn't have the ability to determine entrance eligibility then the company can undermine the union by hiring anyone it wants, whenever it wants, for whatever wages they want to pay.

If I understand the Spencer Haywood case correctly, the courts decided that the NBA draft restrictions were a violation of antitrust law. That means that the league could not do this on its own, and the only thing "protecting" the current NBA draft restrictions is the fact that they are part of the contract between the NBA and the players' union.
06-20-2018 04:24 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #24
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
(06-20-2018 04:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-20-2018 04:04 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 05:13 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 02:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 01:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  I'm pretty sure it would get ruled unconstitutional. But with only a year delay, its not worth it to fight it like Spencer Haywood did in the 70s when it was a 4 year delay. He won an injunction at the Supreme Court. The NBA then settled.

Supreme Court denied cert in the Clarett case. Haywood case the CBA didn't address draft eligibility so it really isn't a relevant case.

If that's the law then it's a dumb law. The union and the league should not be able to bargain away the rights of people who are not part of the union and not part of the league.

But isn't that the premise of any union contract?

Not saying it's right, just saying if a union doesn't have the ability to determine entrance eligibility then the company can undermine the union by hiring anyone it wants, whenever it wants, for whatever wages they want to pay.

If I understand the Spencer Haywood case correctly, the courts decided that the NBA draft restrictions were a violation of antitrust law. That means that the league could not do this on its own, and the only thing "protecting" the current NBA draft restrictions is the fact that they are part of the contract between the NBA and the players' union.

So the question would be who really wants it this way? The union or the league?

Personally, I think the NBA would be better off if they adopted some of the methods of major soccer leagues. Instead of a G League or anything else, they need to build academies and train players from a young age. You could essentially get rid of the AAU game and all the sliminess of it.

For the NCAA's part, they need to admit academy students that come of age and want to pursue an education. Most of those will be kids that might need experience at a high level or perhaps their likelihood of making it in the NBA would be low.

The academy kids are nether restricted from entry nor employed. The NBA could pay their room and board until they're old enough to go to college or talented enough to get *drafted.

*I think you keep the draft so that popular franchises don't just land all the young prospects. Each NBA team could host an academy in their community so that they're spread out and kids wouldn't necessarily have to travel far from home. Each team chips in on the operation of the whole infrastructure.
06-20-2018 07:27 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #25
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
(06-20-2018 07:27 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-20-2018 04:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-20-2018 04:04 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 05:13 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-19-2018 02:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Supreme Court denied cert in the Clarett case. Haywood case the CBA didn't address draft eligibility so it really isn't a relevant case.

If that's the law then it's a dumb law. The union and the league should not be able to bargain away the rights of people who are not part of the union and not part of the league.

But isn't that the premise of any union contract?

Not saying it's right, just saying if a union doesn't have the ability to determine entrance eligibility then the company can undermine the union by hiring anyone it wants, whenever it wants, for whatever wages they want to pay.

If I understand the Spencer Haywood case correctly, the courts decided that the NBA draft restrictions were a violation of antitrust law. That means that the league could not do this on its own, and the only thing "protecting" the current NBA draft restrictions is the fact that they are part of the contract between the NBA and the players' union.

So the question would be who really wants it this way? The union or the league?

Personally, I think the NBA would be better off if they adopted some of the methods of major soccer leagues. Instead of a G League or anything else, they need to build academies and train players from a young age. You could essentially get rid of the AAU game and all the sliminess of it.

For the NCAA's part, they need to admit academy students that come of age and want to pursue an education. Most of those will be kids that might need experience at a high level or perhaps their likelihood of making it in the NBA would be low.

The academy kids are nether restricted from entry nor employed. The NBA could pay their room and board until they're old enough to go to college or talented enough to get *drafted.

*I think you keep the draft so that popular franchises don't just land all the young prospects. Each NBA team could host an academy in their community so that they're spread out and kids wouldn't necessarily have to travel far from home. Each team chips in on the operation of the whole infrastructure.

The most attractive feature of academies, from the team's point of view, is that if you bring the next superstar into your academy at age 13, you get the first shot at signing him for your "senior" team when he is ready for that. If you let NBA teams draft a player out of another NBA team's academy, then the academies are pointless.
06-20-2018 07:50 PM
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Post: #26
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
There wont be academies by team. No way are they going to let a few well run teams with really deep pockets (major cities) develop their own talent pool nobody else can tap into. Possibly NBA league office run academies, like the one proposed for Mexico City.

Changes tend to come incrementally. The NBA has very slowly moved to a minor league system in the G-league which has yielded a lot of roster rounding out players. But most of those guys are not one and done, but guys who exhausted prep including three or four years of college. The obvious NBA talent exits college after a year, and International talent, unless they are first round players, tend to stay in their home countries or on the international circuit where less than superstar can make solid money and be a star in the French, Spanish, Chinese or wherever league.

The NBA teams are not ready to replace either the overseas leagues or college basketball with their hundreds of "A" level teams. It has taken better than a decade to build 10 team AAA teams. So realistically, any adjustment cannot flood these teams, they can only add one or at most two players to them.

There has to be a path for HS players to go to the NBA if they have Lebron or Kobe talent, and for a dozen or even two dozen to go to the G-League. No whether those would be locked into the teams that draft them as a G-League draft round or something, or just a one year deal and then into the regular NBA draft, has to be worked out in the CBA.
06-20-2018 08:17 PM
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Post: #27
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
(06-20-2018 04:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  If I understand the Spencer Haywood case correctly, the courts decided that the NBA draft restrictions were a violation of antitrust law. That means that the league could not do this on its own, and the only thing "protecting" the current NBA draft restrictions is the fact that they are part of the contract between the NBA and the players' union.

That is correct.

The mystery now is what they have in mind. For years the stance has been there is too much financial risk to go all in on a guy who has only high school and AAU experience, especially with so many AAU teams basically playing with same defensive intensity as you see in an NBA all-star game.
06-20-2018 11:01 PM
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Post: #28
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
And yet the draft went like this (listing players and their 2017 ranking coming out of High School)

1. DeAndre Ayton (FR) #4
2. Marvin Bagley (FR) #1
3. Luka Doncic (= FR) International
4. Jaren Jackson Jr. (FR) #8
5. Trae Young (FR) #23
6. Mohamed Bamba (FR) #3
7. Wendell Carter (FR) #7
8. Collin Sexton (FR) #5
9. Kevin Knox (FR) #11
10. Mikal Bridges (JR*) <-- four years ago #81 prospect
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FR) #31
12. Miles Bridges (SO) <-- two years ago #12 prospect (chose to stay a 2nd year at Michigan St, drafted about same slot)
13. Jerome Robinson (JR) <-- three years ago not in top 100 prospects
14. Michael Porter (FR) #2 %
15. Troy Brown (FR) #13
16. Zhaire Smith (FR) International, so not ranked among US High School prospects
17. Donte DiVincenzo (SO*) <-- three years ago not in top 100 prospects
18. Lonnie Walker (FR) #16

others:
24. Lonnie Walker (no college = FR) <-- not listed, but was a top 15-20 prospect if he had gone to college
27. Robert Williams (SO $) <-- two years ago #61
36. Mitchell Robinson (FR, didn't play &) #9
41. Jarred Vanderbilt (FR) #12
45. Hamidou Diallo (FR) #10
Trevon Duval (FR) #6 <-- undrafted
Brandon McCoy (FR) #14 <-- undrafted

* was red shirted, so listed a class younger
% Porter had same back surgery as Steve Kerr's botched operation. Dropped him 10-12 spots
$ Williams decided not to attend the NBA combine, resulting in his dropping from 13th (lottery) to 27th pick ... don't skip the combine!
& Robinson went to WKU for 2 weeks in summer, felt it was a mistake, dropped out. NCAA rules made him sit a year, so he decided to prep for the NBA draft. Like Williams, his actions were considered a red flag dropping him from a lottery pick to 2nd round.

*******************************************************

What we see is one and done dominate the NBA, including two Euro players. HS prospects 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,16,23,31
Prospects #6 and #14 went undrafted.

13 of the first 18 were Freshmen, and another was a one-year out of HS European player. Of those 13 Freshmen, 11 were ranked in the top 16 coming out of high school. But of note, 3 of the top 16 dropped out of the 1st round (two from Kentucky), and 2 fell completely out of the draft. This demonstrates a risk rate of roughly 1/3rd of High School top 16 rated players, and only 2 other pushed their way on the list from further down (#23 and #31) plus two European background players who were essentially Freshmen. We also had a strange case of a late lottery pick staying in school a 2nd year because he liked it so much, and who got drafted about the same spot he would have been last year (kudos to Tom Izzo).

The one thing the one and done rule allows is for the NBA to sort the top 15-20 prospects out of High School to see if they can actually play and develop. Anyone ranked further down than that should seriously look at staying in school 2 or 3 years to develop enough to be draft worthy (proof is in Mikal Bridges, Jerome Robinson, and everyone drafted 17-28 excepting the two Walkers who were Freshmen).

My opinion of draft picks after about 40th is they are either for your G-League team (and some 2-ways) or a Euro stash player. The draft effectively ended at the 40th pick.

Anyway, my take away is the NCAA is the best testing ground for top 20 one and done players. But without that, the NBA really needs to figure out a way to pay the top two dozen prospects coming out of high school and yet developing them. The NBA teams really need to see if these guys can handle the professional life for a year, and whether they focus on developing or not. I don't know how you do that via allocation to G-League teams, as teams will be reluctant to develop players who will not be on their team. The only other way would be to run a couple of NBA academy teams in the G-League, or perhaps one team with 20 players, each of whom plays half a G-League season or 25 games (they play 50, but you don't need a full 50 to evaluate players -- college teams play maybe 35 including the tournament, but it includes 8-10 really low caliber ones). Paying them $50K and working them out in an NBA controlled academy might be the best approach, and it gets them out of the AAU world.

Anyway, there is no perfect solution. But we have to assume one-and-done is gone, and it's going to be two years in college or straight to an NBA academy or International league. Eventually you'd like to maybe incorporate the USA Youth National team to get them out of the AAU world as Juniors and Seniors as well.

Lots to consider, just throwing out some observations.
06-22-2018 03:18 AM
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Post: #29
RE: NBA could scrap one and done rule by 2021
Some do fine going straight to the pros. LeBron James. Moses Malone.

But others like Bill Willoughby never did much in the NBA. He should have gone to college and he might have become a superstar. Willoughby played with Malone on the 1981 Rockets who made the NBA finals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_high_school_draftees

"...In 1974, the NBA's rival, the ABA, drafted high school star Moses Malone. He was immediately signed by the Utah Stars and became the first player to go directly from high school basketball to a professional league.[9] He became an instant success, averaging 18 points and 14 rebounds per game in his rookie season. He played in the ABA until the ABA–NBA merger in 1976. He then played 19 successful seasons with 7 NBA teams. He won the NBA championship, along with the Finals Most Valuable Player Award, with the Philadelphia 76ers in 1983. His other achievements include 3 Most Valuable Player Awards, 12 consecutive All-Star Game selections, 8 All-NBA Team selections and 6 rebounding titles. He has been inducted to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame and was also named in the 50 Greatest Players in NBA History list announced at the league's 50th anniversary in 1996.[10]

A year later, two high school players, Darryl Dawkins and Bill Willoughby, applied for hardship and were declared eligible to be selected in the 1975 draft.[11] They had applied and gave evidence of financial hardship to the league, which granted them the right to start earning their living by starting their professional careers earlier.[8] Dawkins was selected 5th by the Philadelphia 76ers while Willoughby was selected 19th by the Atlanta Hawks. Dawkins played 14 seasons and averaged 12 points and 6 rebounds per game. Willoughby played 8 seasons with 6 different teams and averaged only 6 points per game. Neither player reached the level of success that was expected. It is argued that they could have been better players if they had college basketball experience before entering the NBA.[12][13][14]

After Dawkins and Willoughby, no high schoolers were drafted for 14 years,..."
06-23-2018 09:39 PM
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