We don't know precisely how it's going to go down.

Comcast has made a massive cash bid for the package that 21st Century Fox already agreed to sell to Disney. The tax implications alone would suggest that Fox is going to sell to Disney anyway. The reason I'm posting this though is that a lot is at stake for the sports broadcasting business one way or the other.

If ESPN acquires the package of RSNs then they're going to obtain leverage over a lot of distributors for their product. The RSNs cover a large number of markets and contain the rights to a significant number of pro sports franchises. Whoever owns that content has the ability to negotiate differently with distributors and probably the ability to get most anything they want.

So it begs the question...how much can ESPN acquire in the future if they acquire the RSNs in the near term?

Disney needed content for their streaming service. ESPN needs the same thing for ESPN+. Now, ESPN has spent a lot of time acquiring small conferences that probably have interested fans, just not a great of them. They've added MLS to the fold along with select broadcasts of MLB and other leagues. When ESPN takes over UFC, a lot of that content is reportedly heading to ESPN+.

So the plan seems pretty clear from here...ESPN wants to be dominant in every phase of this market. More content on ESPN+ means they get revenue from streaming and prepare for a future where traditional cable might not be that significant. More content on the linear channels means they have a robust portfolio to present to cable companies and make profit from more and more feeds. More content under one roof also means that ESPN isn't hurt by signing carriage deals with online entities like DirecTV Now, YouTube TV, or PSVue. They're covering their bases.

While I do think online distribution is the future, it's always good to be diversified. So, the bigger ESPN gets the more dust it gathers most likely.

In a few years, a lot of rights in the college sports sphere will be up for grabs. ESPN will have an advantage due to it's diversified platform. How might they attack?

Their new strategy seems to be acquiring everything they can. I'll gamble and say that ESPN attempts to purchase the PAC 12 Network. I don't think the network will command top dollar, but if ESPN takes over your feed then their leverage helps you out by default. No one else can offer that feature to the PAC. The PACN could get pretty good coverage nationally if ESPN is involved. I also think the ACC Network will be maintained as long as the core schools in that league are happy with it. The SEC Network's worth speaks for itself even though linear channels may weaken in value going forward.

What of the Big 12 properties? Well, ESPN already has the LHN and it doesn't serve much of a purpose if it contains only UT-based content. They did drop money on production facilities in TX though so unless they're planning on selling that to someone else then I think they'll find a way to generate revenue from the LHN.

So here's a theory...

The SEC is still hungry and will be looking for new properties to bolster their portfolio for the 1st Tier rights negotiations. The ACC and PAC need a little more stability. The B1G is not really in the picture here because they've shown a propensity not to go along with ESPN's grand vision. While I think ESPN will always have a slice of the B1G rights, I see no reason the B1G would trust their security in the hands of ESPN given the track record of the relationship. I think that's especially true if Amazon ends up buying Fox Sports or something like that.

Anyway, the SEC needs to feed a little more and if they can't do it from the Big 12 then they'll one day turn on the ACC. ESPN doesn't need that sort of trouble in house so the best thing to do is help the SEC acquire something solid for #15 and #16 and pay the league enough that they'll stop looking around.

Might I add that after some reflection, I don't think ESPN is particularly interested in eliminating any of these conferences as long as they can be made useful. The SWC was not useful. The Big East came to be useless due to lack of cooperation and the threat of Big Ten growth. Fair or unfair, this is ESPN's business and they throw their weight around for the purpose of strengthening their bottom line. With that said, I don't think we're going to see a champs only playoff or a separation of P5 from G5 at ESPN's behest.

Now, that's not to say it can't happen or that the leagues would never try to make it happen. I'm saying that whatever marginal difference in profit that ESPN might make in such an endeavor wouldn't be worth the cost. An entity like Disney needs the favor of politicians and regulators from time to time and too much interference will hurt their efforts. They don't want to alienate D1 leagues, their supporters, and any interested power brokers more than they already have. I actually think that's one of the reasons you've seen ESPN purchase a lot of lesser leagues' rights for ESPN+. They're trying to make money and rocking the boat too much doesn't really do any good.

Point being this, ESPN could probably make a few hundred million more over the course of a decade, for example, if they go Machiavellian and move every piece into place. You know...cut a few costs here and there, sign a bigger and better contract for a more attractive CFP. Good money for the likes of you and me, but they'll make billions by redefining the market with technology and by playing a more subtle political game. They want customers and not necessarily a refined product for consumption.

This is the difference between pro sports and college sports. With the pros, all you need is markets and credibility. With colleges, credibility is less important than brand loyalty. That and there are so many ways to secure markets that a higher degree of organization isn't always worth the trouble.

College sports is an important component of their portfolio, but when you consider the place that every other sports entity plays in the equation then perhaps redefining the college landscape isn't high on their priority list. An entity like Disney doesn't have any great financial motivation to interfere too much more in the politics of college athletics and the bottom line is their primary concern.

So let me present this...

1. ESPN is going to help the SEC land 2 more decent additions and then give them a buttload of cash for their 1st Tier rights.

2. ESPN may very well secure another addition for the ACC, but I don't think that school is coming from the Big 12.

3. The PAC 12 probably has little interest in taking most of the Big 12 schools anyway so as long as ESPN buys their network and pays them a competitive rate for rights then I think they're probably happy with their current membership.

4. Building a league and a conference network around Texas and Oklahoma could actually help ESPN control more valuable content.

Bottom line is this, bundling 4 conference networks that stretch from coast to coast along with all the RSNs that tap major markets along with all the primary linear feeds should secure a very nice return for everyone.

So I'll predict something akin to this...

-SEC adds West Virginia and Kansas

The reason is that these are 2 decent products that would not sink the Big 12 if they left. They add new markets for the SEC and once again "add to the middle."

-The ACC adds Cincinnati if Notre Dame is willing to go all in.

-The Big 12 backfills with UCF, USF, BYU, and Houston

The Big 12 can have a viable network with this makeup in part because they just dropped 1 small market redundancy and gain good penetration in the state of FL. Losing WVU is probably a one for one trade for BYU. If they're paid a competitive rate for their 1st and 2nd Tier then there's not much of a reason for Texas or Oklahoma to go elsewhere.

I can see that.