(06-20-2018 02:23 PM)Win5002 Wrote: If there is tech companies jumping in at the next negotiations I think its less likely to see the idea of either the B1G or SEC carving off just the cream of the crop and leaving no where for 4-6 programs to go. There are more distribution methods chasing more content not less and you just completely devalued the remaining league members as a league.
I think realignment is more likely as you have mentioned in the case where ESPN or FOX do a pre-emptive strike to consolidate content before techs can get involved in the next round of negotiations. Or if the techs are not ready by 2023, but even if the techs are not ready people will look to them in the future as bidding partners and won't be jumping at just any realignment.
It's hard to say what FOX will do. Disney up the offer to 71.3 billion today and FOX liked it. Now they could put that money to work in acquiring rights, or simply decide to sell FOX Sports, FS1 and FS2 (which Disney can't buy anyway). The global financial picture indicates that it might be a great time to maximize your cash and wait and Murdoch might be positioning to do just that. Disney stock is blue chip enough to satisfy his position and the new offer is half cash / half stock options.
Also there is no concrete evidence that Amazon and Facebook will pursue college sports. The pro sports market is much more easily sold to these companies because they produce their own product.
If anything happens to the Big 12 it will be because schools like Oklahoma (which announced today that they have nearly 1 Billion in operating debt which is costing a service payment of 70 million a year from their general budget and most of which is unfunded and which has hamstrung their projects and frozen their faculty raises for years) just might be feeling the pressure to grab more cash from anywhere as quickly as is practical.
That tells me that those networks already motivated to lock up rights may have to move more quickly to land them. If the Disney deal goes through they will be picking up the T3 rights of the Sooners. They already have the rights for Kansas and Texas's T3. Buying out the FOX portion of the Big 12's remaining contract then is small potatoes and they wouldn't even have to buy them out but rather sublet 50% of them to FOX and pick up the option after the current contract period.
Therefore expanding the SEC and ACC prior to 2023 becomes easily doable, provided they place at least 8 of the 10 schools if not all of them.
I could see the ACC moving to 18 with Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas along with West Virginia leaving N.D. as the only independent.
Would the SEC be encouraged to pick up Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and T.C.U.? Maybe.
But that would be awkward and somewhat redundant. That's why I would be surprised to see a deal first offered back in 2010 utilized. At 18 schools the ACC really needs 6 out West not 3. At 20 they can cut that to 5.
So if the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech to go along with the two Oklahoma schools and adds Kansas and T.C.U. to round out at 20.
Then the ACC can add Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Iowa State to the West, West Virginia, Notre Dame, and either Cincinnati or Connecticut to the East to round out at 20.
SEC:
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
ACC:
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest
Now ESPN can partner those two conferences and max out on Football, Basketball, Baseball, Softball, Track & Field, Gymnastics, and the country club sports for content.
They bundle the two networks, fold the LHN into it and max out the viewing boundaries of the two conferences. They also own the vast majority of the relevant rivalries in college football.
And if Oklahoma is hurting for cash, and they are, doing this early just got a helluva lot easier.