the economy is going up like a rocket. the border is more secure every day. ACA is a dead letter. DJT is doing every thing he said he was going to do.

I can't wait.

republicans are going to romp

(06-23-2018 12:01 AM)EagleX Wrote:  republicans are going to romp

Its possible. I think its pretty unpredictable what will happen at this point except that the Republicans hold the Senate. Maybe stay at 51, maybe gain a lot. Anything could happen in House.

Democrats haven't been this mad since we freed all their slaves.

I'm a bit fearful what the crazier die-hards will do once their vile crime syndicate masquerading as a political party gets shuffled into the dustbin of history, where it belonged after Indian removal, or slavery, or secession, or eugenics, or segregation.

I didn't vote Trump, and still don't particularly like him, but he will do a great service to the country by making the Dems irrelevant, and I think he is well on his way.

(06-23-2018 12:00 AM)EagleX Wrote:  the economy is going up like a rocket. the border is more secure every day. ACA is a dead letter. DJT is doing every thing he said he was going to do.

I can't wait.

Standards of living really aren't rising, the border is in utter chaos, and DJT's attacks on ACA are going to result in 200% rate increases for Americans with preexisting conditions or those between 40-64 years old (and those rate increases will hit everyone's mailbox a week before the elections).

Watch out for the blowback from Trump's moronic trade wars. This is a potentially HUGE liablility for DJT.

Basically, Trump's plan is to quadruple down on white nationalism/racism and toxic masculinity and hope that they'll be able to use that to motivate enough of their supporters to show up in a favorable Senate environment and a profoundly gerrymandered House environment to cobble together a feeble majority for the next 2 years.

DJT's goal is to be so racist and offensive to try to provoke liberals into doing something stupid. The Dems are largely not taking the bait.

BTW, watch for the Republican leaning Independents to bolt to the Dems or simply not vote in larger numbers as this chaos goes on. The business folks already got their tax cut. Trump has nothing to offer them anymore.

This isn't going to be a repeat of 2006. Bush had a much lower approval rate among Republicans than Trump does now. This is looking like a 'turnout' election.

Right now, I see the following.

House: The 80% bands run between 20-45 seats of a gain in the House (the low band of gains lets the GOP retain a tiny majority)

Senate: The 80% bands run between a 2 seat gain for the GOP and a 2 seat gain for the Dems (the top of this band gives the Dems the majority).

Generally results outside those bands only happen in elections when one side or the other is not engaged. That is looking unlikely this time. But if it does, its more likely that the less engaged party will be the GOP this go around. The Dems are going to show up this time.

----

If there's a wave election, its highly unlikely that it will be a GOP wave. Trump hasn't shown any ability to add to his 2016 voter total.

Wave elections usually involve all the undecideds breaking late for one party. That is much more for the Dems benefit this time. A wave election for the Dems would probably look a lot like this...60+ House seats, 3 Senate Seats, and 14+ governors mansions. Waves are out of the ordinary, and might not happen this time, but the Dems don't need a wave to gain majorities.

----

If I'm the GOP, I'd watch out for GOP leaning, nominally independent, voters (especially white women within that group). They don't have to vote for the Dems to hurt you....they hurt you almost as bad by simply not showing up.

(06-24-2018 11:57 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-23-2018 12:00 AM)EagleX Wrote:  the economy is going up like a rocket. the border is more secure every day. ACA is a dead letter. DJT is doing every thing he said he was going to do.

I can't wait.

Standards of living really aren't rising, the border is in utter chaos, and DJT's attacks on ACA are going to result in 200% rate increases for Americans with preexisting conditions or those between 40-64 years old (and those rate increases will hit everyone's mailbox a week before the elections).

Watch out for the blowback from Trump's moronic trade wars. This is a potentially HUGE liablility for DJT.

Basically, Trump's plan is to quadruple down on white nationalism/racism and toxic masculinity and hope that they'll be able to use that to motivate enough of their supporters to show up in a favorable Senate environment and a profoundly gerrymandered House environment to cobble together a feeble majority for the next 2 years.

DJT's goal is to be so racist and offensive to try to provoke liberals into doing something stupid. The Dems are largely not taking the bait.

BTW, watch for the Republican leaning Independents to bolt to the Dems or simply not vote in larger numbers as this chaos goes on. The business folks already got their tax cut. Trump has nothing to offer them anymore.

This isn't going to be a repeat of 2006. Bush had a much lower approval rate among Republicans than Trump does now. This is looking like a 'turnout' election.

Right now, I see the following.

House: The 80% bands run between 20-45 seats of a gain in the House (the low band of gains lets the GOP retain a tiny majority)

Senate: The 80% bands run between a 2 seat gain for the GOP and a 2 seat gain for the Dems (the top of this band gives the Dems the majority).

Generally results outside those bands only happen in elections when one side or the other is not engaged. That is looking unlikely this time. But if it does, its more likely that the less engaged party will be the GOP this go around. The Dems are going to show up this time.

----

If there's a wave election, its highly unlikely that it will be a GOP wave. Trump hasn't shown any ability to add to his 2016 voter total.

Wave elections usually involve all the undecideds breaking late for one party. That is much more for the Dems benefit this time. A wave election for the Dems would probably look a lot like this...60+ House seats, 3 Senate Seats, and 14+ governors mansions. Waves are out of the ordinary, and might not happen this time, but the Dems don't need a wave to gain majorities.

----

If I'm the GOP, I'd watch out for GOP leaning, nominally independent, voters (especially white women within that group). They don't have to vote for the Dems to hurt you....they hurt you almost as bad by simply not showing up.

I think the highest probability is going to be minimal change. The second highest is a good midterm for democrats. I can’t see an especially good night for republicans. I think they maximized their numbers in 2016 and I just don’t see a lot of new votes for them.

(06-24-2018 12:10 PM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  I think the highest probability is going to be minimal change. The second highest is a good midterm for democrats. I can’t see an especially good night for republicans. I think they maximized their numbers in 2016 and I just don’t see a lot of new votes for them.

agree with the first and reverse 2 and 3.....

unless the dippos pull a rabbit out of their arse in the next few mos., there's no way they gain...... their rabbit pellets are being caged as we speak.....

(06-24-2018 12:29 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(06-24-2018 12:10 PM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  I think the highest probability is going to be minimal change. The second highest is a good midterm for democrats. I can’t see an especially good night for republicans. I think they maximized their numbers in 2016 and I just don’t see a lot of new votes for them.

agree with the first and reverse 2 and 3.....

unless the dippos pull a rabbit out of their arse in the next few mos., there's no way they gain...... their rabbit pellets are being caged as we speak.....

I think they gain. They’re going to make up for not showing last time. The question: where does that gain come in? Is it in districts where they already win or will it flip some?

I think republicans will hold their own, but do they have any juice left to squeeze?

(06-24-2018 02:06 PM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  

(06-24-2018 12:29 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(06-24-2018 12:10 PM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  I think the highest probability is going to be minimal change. The second highest is a good midterm for democrats. I can’t see an especially good night for republicans. I think they maximized their numbers in 2016 and I just don’t see a lot of new votes for them.

agree with the first and reverse 2 and 3.....

unless the dippos pull a rabbit out of their arse in the next few mos., there's no way they gain...... their rabbit pellets are being caged as we speak.....

I think they gain. They’re going to make up for not showing last time. The question: where does that gain come in? Is it in districts where they already win or will it flip some?

I think republicans will hold their own, but do they have any juice left to squeeze?

IMO, when DJT hits the 'midterm trail' from the pulpit, it's a 'red gain' by the time it's all said and done......albeit, most likely a small one....

#thepothasbeenstirred

don't kid yourself, I'll vote in my first senatorial race this year......and Baria (D) is a good family friend......he's in the 'no fly zone' if he wins the runoff next week

(06-24-2018 11:57 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-23-2018 12:00 AM)EagleX Wrote:  the economy is going up like a rocket. the border is more secure every day. ACA is a dead letter. DJT is doing every thing he said he was going to do.

I can't wait.

Standards of living really aren't rising, the border is in utter chaos, and DJT's attacks on ACA are going to result in 200% rate increases for Americans with preexisting conditions or those between 40-64 years old (and those rate increases will hit everyone's mailbox a week before the elections).

Watch out for the blowback from Trump's moronic trade wars. This is a potentially HUGE liablility for DJT.

Basically, Trump's plan is to quadruple down on white nationalism/racism and toxic masculinity and hope that they'll be able to use that to motivate enough of their supporters to show up in a favorable Senate environment and a profoundly gerrymandered House environment to cobble together a feeble majority for the next 2 years.

DJT's goal is to be so racist and offensive to try to provoke liberals into doing something stupid. The Dems are largely not taking the bait.

BTW, watch for the Republican leaning Independents to bolt to the Dems or simply not vote in larger numbers as this chaos goes on. The business folks already got their tax cut. Trump has nothing to offer them anymore.

This isn't going to be a repeat of 2006. Bush had a much lower approval rate among Republicans than Trump does now. This is looking like a 'turnout' election.

Right now, I see the following.

House: The 80% bands run between 20-45 seats of a gain in the House (the low band of gains lets the GOP retain a tiny majority)

Senate: The 80% bands run between a 2 seat gain for the GOP and a 2 seat gain for the Dems (the top of this band gives the Dems the majority).

Generally results outside those bands only happen in elections when one side or the other is not engaged. That is looking unlikely this time. But if it does, its more likely that the less engaged party will be the GOP this go around. The Dems are going to show up this time.

----

If there's a wave election, its highly unlikely that it will be a GOP wave. Trump hasn't shown any ability to add to his 2016 voter total.

Wave elections usually involve all the undecideds breaking late for one party. That is much more for the Dems benefit this time. A wave election for the Dems would probably look a lot like this...60+ House seats, 3 Senate Seats, and 14+ governors mansions. Waves are out of the ordinary, and might not happen this time, but the Dems don't need a wave to gain majorities.

----

If I'm the GOP, I'd watch out for GOP leaning, nominally independent, voters (especially white women within that group). They don't have to vote for the Dems to hurt you....they hurt you almost as bad by simply not showing up.

Oh goody, more predictions from TIL.

*bets mortgage on Republican House and Senate.