(06-28-2018 10:24 AM)FloridaJag Wrote: (06-27-2018 09:32 PM)ken d Wrote: (06-27-2018 03:56 PM)FloridaJag Wrote: (06-27-2018 03:36 PM)ken d Wrote: (06-27-2018 01:57 PM)TerryD Wrote: Respectfully, Ken. I do not (not that my opinion matters). More importantly, Jack Swarbrick has indicated ND's intentions in several interviews.
He has stated that, if the playoffs went to a P4, champs only format, ND would have no choice but to reluctantly and without any enthusiasm then join the ACC in football.
If no P4 champs only playoff, ND is currently satisfied with the status quo that is currently legally locked into place until 2036.
ND football has been independent since it began in 1887. ND doesn't want to put its football team in the conference, and likely will not, unless forced to against its will.
I mean, it could currently be making about $20 million a year more as a full Big Ten member, but does not want to join that conference.
I recall that many thought that the increased conference TV payouts would entice ND to drop independence. Then, many thought that the relatively harder route to the playoffs as an independent would do the trick.
To many people's surprise (not mine), ND did not blink. Neither multiple more millions in TV money nor a better chance at the playoffs moved ND one inch from its independent status.
If those things did not, I don't think things like only 7 conference games or Navy joining the ACC as a football only member will do the trick.
(I wasn't going to respond to this thread, but noted that in all of the many posts therein, not one tried to analyze this issue from ND's point of view).
If you are correct, and I have no reason to believe you are not, then Notre Dame is off the board of potential expansion candidates for the ACC. I further believe that Navy would then only come into play as a potential partner with West Virginia. But, since I don't believe West Virginia could get enough votes for admittance, then all three of those schools are off the table.
I don't believe there are any other candidates who could get the votes to be invited and who would accept if invited. Therefore, I would conclude that the ACC's expansion days are over, and the status quo will prevail until at least 2036.
I believe the same is true for the Big Ten and the PAC. That is, I don't think any schools who could get invited would accept. That only leaves the SEC and the Big 12, who would likely only add schools to replace ones taken by the SEC. So, until the SEC chooses to act (or not), P5 realignment isn't happening IMO.
I agree with your conclusion. The ACC adding Connecticut or does not change a thing. The next move is the SEC's and I lean toward invites to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. I do not see Texas heading for the PAC 12. Therefore, Houston, Memphis, Cincinatti and probably BYU are shoe ins for the Big 12.
My question here is this. If, a year ago, the Big 12 would not expand to 12 even though that was what was needed at the time for a CCG, why would they now go to 12 even though they only need 10 for the CCG? Was Oklahoma the only thing holding them back then?
And, FWIW, I don't think the remaining members of the Big 12 would feel any need to mollify West Virginia by giving them a "travel partner". That's the kind of thing you might do if you are wooing a prospective new member. That's no longer the case. IMO, if they were to go to 12, the other two (besides Houston and Memphis) would more likely be UCF and USF.
But there is always the possibility that they would do nothing and stay at 8, allowing Texas to have two more OOC games than they have now rather than risk losing the Horns as well.
I think the most likely decision would be to just add Houston and Memphis and accept the haircut they would almost certainly get with the loss of the Sooners.
Good Points.
One other is the travel cost for non football sports. I do not see UCF and USF joining BIG 12 due to the travel cost for the total AD budget.
ND is positioning its non football sports makes sense regionally. If the ACC states to ND to come on board fully or take all your teams and go, then ND will have to become a full member of the ACC. ND wants all there "programs" associated with a P5 football conference. Therefore, where will they go?
The SEC - Nope
The Big Ten - Nope
The PAC 12 - Nope
The Big 12 - Nope
Therefore, the ND is unofficially an ACC school. This only works because the PAC 12 wants to keep the yearly matchup with USC and Stanford. Plus the traditionalist want the yearly ND/Navy game.
Note: ND/Stanford became a yearly game in 1988. ND/Navy played every year since 1927.
If UCONN is added to the ACC with Notre Dame, the season would be locked every year with Navy, Southern Cal and Stanford, nine games conference schedule. This leaves no games to schedule every year.
If the SEC acquires Oklahoma and Oklahoma State then ND has to join the ACC outright because the P5 Champ requirement becomes mandatory.
So the present arrangement, only works if the majority of the P5 values a home and home with ND.
Note: UGA beat ND 20-19 last year. In 2019 ND goes to UGA.
ND has home and home games against Ohio State (2022/23), Texas AM (2024/25) ,Purdue (2024 to 2028 with three at Purdue) and Alabama (2028/29).
It looks like ND had to agree to home and home games with the Big Ten and SEC to keep every body happy, for now. This arrangement helps ND with the voters over the next few years to keep their cash value.
A few points:
--Jack Swarbrick's scheduling philosophy is based on being an independent in the playoff era.
--He wants games with Georgia, Michigan, Southern Cal, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, etc...
--It is ND's choice to so schedule, not to make the Big Ten, SEC or any conference "happy" with ND's status.
--Swarbrick calls it having "markers" against all P5 conferences so that ND can compete for a potential playoff spot as an independent in the playoff era.
--He calls it "My 12 is better than your 13" regarding the lack of a conference championship game. You can disagree with him, but that is his scheduling philosophy.
--The fact that he is scheduling this way, far out in the future, tells one that ND intends to remain independent.
"Regardless, he said that as an independent it’s Notre Dame’s duty to build the resume with a 12-game schedule that matches or eclipses any 13-game slate a conference team might have with a league playoff.
“We have to be good enough to navigate it,” Swarbrick said. “If you’re going to be independent, you have to be independent. Independence means playing the best schedule you can. If you’re not going to do that, don’t be an independent.
“We’ve chosen to be independent.”
https://notredame.rivals.com/news/jack-s...-schedules
"Q: Switching gears, what would it take for Notre Dame to join the ACC full time in football?
A: You can always weigh some circumstance that would do it, but we don’t think that way and we are very comfortable with and focused on our independence because of the things it does for the university, not for us. If we didn’t have a broadcast partner, that would be one thing. But we have a great relationship with NBC and look forward to that continuing.
I don’t foresee any change in philosophy which would ever cause us to do it.
[On the first day of ACC media days Thursday, conference Commissioner John Swofford was asked this same question. He said Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member is “not a point of discussion” between the university and the league.
"There wasn’t an expectation that at some point in time Notre Dame would ask for full membership in football,” Swofford said. “That is not a point of discussion at this given point in time. Obviously, if Notre Dame reached the point where they wanted to have that discussion, we would readily sit down and speak with them about that."]
Q:Have you found that not having a 13th game or winning a conference is hurting Notre Dame as it pertains to the College Football Playoff?
A: There will be years where not having a conference championship works against us. We understand that, we factor it into our calculus. But, given the schedules we’re building, I’ll be very comfortable arguing most years that our 12 games compare favorably with everybody else’s 13. When you say a 13-game schedule is superior to our 12-game schedule, you have to compare all the games. We’re building schedules that I think will stand up to that comparison well. They’ll be very tough to navigate. No one will ever accuse us of backing in with the schedules we’ve built for the future."
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/co...467734001/
--There is no legal mechanism for the ACC to give ND an ultimatium.
--The contracts between ND/ACC/ESPN cement ND's current status legally, until 2036.
--Besides the GOR, the exit fee and the ACC Network deal, ND has a contract with the ACC that says IF ND ever joins a football conference before 2036, it must be the ACC.
--Nothing in the documents mandates such a decision. In fact, legally, it guarantees ND's current status and gives it a full share of any ACC Network profits.
"Notre Dame will continue to get the best of both worlds from the ACC through at least 2037.
The conference announced an extension of its football agreement with the Fighting Irish on Thursday. Notre Dame, a member of the ACC in all sports but football, will play five ACC teams every year from 2026 through ’37.
Notre Dame gets to retain its football independence while the ACC’s television contract gets a boost from the home dates its teams have with the Irish (All Notre Dame’s home games are still on NBC).
Notre Dame also gets to participate in the ACC’s bowl tie-ins and access to its annual spotlight national game on Labor Day"
https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/coll...60542.html
--So, those with fantasies of the ACC giving ND an ultimatum or kicking them out can leave all of them right here. No sale.
--ND is complying with all contracts with the ACC, so there is no "cause" to kick ND out, even if the ACC wanted to. No legal mechanism exists for such action.