Democratic pollster John Zogby doesn’t care much for many of President Trump’s policies and thinks the man is rude, but he’s also coming to the conclusion that the Republican has something very big going for him. “Some people just know how to win,” said Zogby, who didn’t think Trump would make it out of the Republican primaries in 2016. 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washi...decisively


Bwahahahaha

What I would give to be a suicide hotline operator in the Hollywood Hills on election night this year....

Well if he was wrong in 2016, then I'm not sure his pronouncement for 2020 should hold any special weight.

(07-16-2018 11:09 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Well if he was wrong in 2016, then I'm not sure his pronouncement for 2020 should hold any special weight.

He has been illuminated

(07-16-2018 11:14 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 11:09 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Well if he was wrong in 2016, then I'm not sure his pronouncement for 2020 should hold any special weight.

He has been illuminated

#Walkaway

(07-16-2018 11:09 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Well if he was wrong in 2016, then I'm not sure his pronouncement for 2020 should hold any special weight.

Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

(07-16-2018 05:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

Depends on your definition of wrong. If the definition is that Clinton was favored by most polls, and she didn't win, so it's wrong and fake news, then they were all wrong.

Throwing that bit of bad reasoning out the window, Nate Silver was the one sounding the alarm a bit. I think he had her at 75% or something similar, and all the sources running polls where she was 85-95% were calling him an alarmist. Turns out, he was pretty spot on. It was an unlikely victory, but it wasn't some unforeseen possibility like a lot of places wanted to make people believe.

(07-16-2018 05:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 11:09 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Well if he was wrong in 2016, then I'm not sure his pronouncement for 2020 should hold any special weight.

Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

In the Clinton / Trump election it was safer to wrong than right!

I wonder how many pollsters privately thought that Trump was close but for professional and industry related reasons wouldn't say so....

(07-16-2018 05:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 11:09 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Well if he was wrong in 2016, then I'm not sure his pronouncement for 2020 should hold any special weight.

Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

MUH 98% CERTAINTY

(07-16-2018 05:50 PM)Gakusei Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 05:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

Depends on your definition of wrong. If the definition is that Clinton was favored by most polls, and she didn't win, so it's wrong and fake news, then they were all wrong.

Throwing that bit of bad reasoning out the window, Nate Silver was the one sounding the alarm a bit. I think he had her at 75% or something similar, and all the sources running polls where she was 85-95% were calling him an alarmist. Turns out, he was pretty spot on. It was an unlikely victory, but it wasn't some unforeseen possibility like a lot of places wanted to make people believe.

(07-16-2018 05:55 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 05:50 PM)Gakusei Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 05:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

Depends on your definition of wrong. If the definition is that Clinton was favored by most polls, and she didn't win, so it's wrong and fake news, then they were all wrong.

Throwing that bit of bad reasoning out the window, Nate Silver was the one sounding the alarm a bit. I think he had her at 75% or something similar, and all the sources running polls where she was 85-95% were calling him an alarmist. Turns out, he was pretty spot on. It was an unlikely victory, but it wasn't some unforeseen possibility like a lot of places wanted to make people believe.

Ima watch that YT's epic meltdown again later, just for the laughs.

Love that picture of But Muh Nate!

I can't believe they let him on TV on election night looking like that

Board liberals from November, 2016:



PATHETIC! Crying over a crook. When Obama won twice, I went to bed, thought it stank but was oh well, what can I do, and got my ass up and went to work the next day and kept plugging along.

You liberals really need to grow up.

(07-16-2018 05:50 PM)Gakusei Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 05:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

Depends on your definition of wrong. If the definition is that Clinton was favored by most polls, and she didn't win, so it's wrong and fake news, then they were all wrong.

Throwing that bit of bad reasoning out the window, Nate Silver was the one sounding the alarm a bit. I think he had her at 75% or something similar, and all the sources running polls where she was 85-95% were calling him an alarmist. Turns out, he was pretty spot on. It was an unlikely victory, but it wasn't some unforeseen possibility like a lot of places wanted to make people believe.

He wasn't spot on at all. If you looked at the polls objectively, it could have gone either way. Nate started his prediction by saying, "I don't want to scare anyone..." That is a red flag that the pollster is very biased and doesn't seem to even know anyone or believe anyone who reads him supported Trump.

Real Clear Politics poll average had it 272-266 Clinton. And that was only because of one fluky poll that had her up 10 in New Hampshire. Without that, it would have shown Trump winning 270-268. Now Clinton lead in the last poll in Nevada, but not the average and lead the last poll in New Hampshire. She took both of those states narrowly. Trump lead the last poll in MI and PA, but trailed in the average. He was within the margin of error in the final poll in WI.

(07-16-2018 05:52 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 05:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-16-2018 11:09 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Well if he was wrong in 2016, then I'm not sure his pronouncement for 2020 should hold any special weight.

Honest question: were any of the professional pollster/pundit-types NOT wrong in 2016?

In the Clinton / Trump election it was safer to wrong than right!

I wonder how many pollsters privately thought that Trump was close but for professional and industry related reasons wouldn't say so....

Doubt it. They all followed group-think. I remember election night Brit Hume saying the Trump people had been asking them why they kept asking about NC, that Trump had it in the bag. Hume didn't believe them. And Hume is pretty objective. It was pretty clear Trump would win Ohio and North Carolina. He was ahead in Florida, but it was close. The media seemed to believe those were all tossups and that Clinton actually had a chance in Georgia. All delusional group-think.

Giuliani was telling the reporters in the last week that Trump was probably going to take MI and PA and had a shot at WI. They all laughed at him.

(07-16-2018 06:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  He wasn't spot on at all. If you looked at the polls objectively, it could have gone either way. Nate started his prediction by saying, "I don't want to scare anyone..." That is a red flag that the pollster is very biased and doesn't seem to even know anyone or believe anyone who reads him supported Trump.

Nate Silver isn't a pollster, he's a statistician. I'm guessing that if he writes his articles that way, it's because he knows who's reading the site.

(07-16-2018 06:21 PM)Gakusei Wrote:  Nate Silver isn't a pollster, he's a statistician.

True. ^^^

By the same token: since he doesn’t make “predictions,” per se, he really doesn’t deserve credit for supposedly making accurate “predictions” in 2008/2012.

(07-16-2018 06:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  Giuliani was telling the reporters in the last week that Trump was probably going to take MI and PA and had a shot at WI. They all laughed at him.

They have a habit of that....