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Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
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P5PACSEC Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-04-2018 07:25 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  AAC =$15m

No way that happens. Small fan bases, small attendance= no one cares.
08-04-2018 09:13 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
Ok Pac-Man, what in your estimation will the AAC get next year in their new tv contract?
08-04-2018 10:29 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-04-2018 08:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(08-04-2018 08:36 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(08-04-2018 07:52 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(08-04-2018 07:37 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(08-03-2018 10:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Whether the deal was signed with ESPN or CBS or whoever, it was still a Special Deal for Navy in relation to the AAC.

And that doesn't bother me. Navy is in fact more valuable to the AAC television deal than any other AAC school, so Navy should have a sweetheart deal that gives them more of what they want. When USF has Navy's national brand name and an annual series with a P5 blue-blood that can be used to boost the TV contract, then we'll deserve special treatment too, but we don't so we don't, while Navy does.

What is hilarious about this though is that you are so darn determined to be regarded as an "AAC Solidarity Forever" poster - the only Navy fan or alum I've ever met who cares about the AAC at all, BTW - that you insist on denying it so that Navy will be regarded as just one of the gang. 07-coffee3

I’ve never seen a Navy fan who puts so much faith into a conference. I suspect you the Navy poster is really Mikey Aresco and God Bless him if he is. I follow Army nominally and this Navy fan poster while a great gigantic rah rah conference poster is a bigger conference fan than they SEC SEC SEC guys. It’s odd.

The strategic endstate of P6 and the AAC strategic plan is the same as the reason Navy eschewed 134 years of successful football independence to join a BCS Auto-qualifier conference. (Being on the proper side of the next big shakeup)So yes, I have great interest in the success of the conference in meeting those strategic goals.

I acknowledge quo has semi-local roots and knows Navy fans and won't gainsay his opinion of their opinions. I'd hazard a guess I know more Navy fans, though, and I am not alone in having interest in the success of the AAC strategic plan.

That’s great. It’s odd due to the fact Navy could have gone to the ACC though, and still could. Would you still be an AAC conference fan if Navy truly joined the country club. This P6 stuff is make believe. See the MWC in 2010 with TCU, Utah and BYU and how close but how far they were from joining the club if you want an example of the cartel allowing another entire conference to join them at the table. They only had 9 schools and they weren’t allowed in. The 13 schools of the AAC aren’t getting in either...maybe 2 or 3.

There was never any serious talk about Navy to the ACC. Big East was calling us every year, long before 2011-12.
From your "would you still be" question, I guess I still didn't make myself clear enough: I am interested in the AAC P6/strategic plan succeeding because that is now the path to my school's ending up at our strategic goal.
Look at when P6 got rolled out -- AFTER the BigXII debacle. From the conference perspective that dodged a bullet -- and Navy perspective, too, since our position and our chance of that successful endstate would be weaker if the conference was weakened by top performers leaving. So the P6 was rolled out to say: no individual teams got picked to move up individually, so let's work on moving up together come 2025.
We don't have to transform into the SEC overnight, just keep pace with the autonomous conferences. "Tweener" is not necessarily a repudiation of P6.

Ok. I just know that when Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, UCF and Navy and maybe Memphis get too good, their gone. Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, USF and SMU aren’t going anywhere. This P6 solidarity is great until those 2 or 3 call ups leave us behind. That’s the reality. I was convinced ECU was going to get the call up or that even the entire CUSA 1.0 would get called up.Now I realize that’s a dream. We are the old WAC/MWC. Tweener forever.
08-04-2018 10:32 PM
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P5PACSEC Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-04-2018 10:29 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Ok Pac-Man, what in your estimation will the AAC get next year in their new tv contract?

Peanuts compared to UT, A&M and Tech and rightfully so.
08-04-2018 10:43 PM
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Tigersmoke4 Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-04-2018 07:13 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(08-03-2018 11:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 11:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 09:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 06:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think they [ESPN] can pick up MW content for much less than AAC content because it gets much lower ratings and will have very few competing bidders...

I think you just answered your own question about whether ESPN would pay more for the AAC than they would for the MWC.
07-coffee3

The AAC gets much higher ratings and hasn’t had to position the American Digital Network as a potential landing spot for all AAC like the MW has. That desperate move tells me there are no other serious bidders for the MW. Meanwhile, Aresco is saying the next AAC contract will bring “multiples” (plural) of the current deal. One woukd only speak that way if they knew they had at least 3 serious bidders prepared to make a run on the AAC. It’s worth noting that the Navy rights went on the market and ESPN wasn’t the winning bidder. The AAC deal will also include the Navy-Notre Dame game every other year—which is just one more reason for NBC to make another run on the AAC.



You do get a few exceptions in the MWC that gets better ratings.

I want to assume that you mean mwc exceptions that get better ratings than majority of mwc games.
mwc exceptions that get better ratings than AAC games isn't really true.

Here are 2017's top ten most viewed games, conference-controlled only, from each of the two conferences, stacked together.
Millions of viewers-conf-game
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.758 AAC Navy @ Temple
0.699 AAC navy @ Houston
0.697 AAC Temple @ Cincinnati
0.683 AAC Memphis @ Tulsa
0.623 mwc Boise St - Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming
0.436 mwc Air Force @ Boise St
0.421 mwc Nevada @ Colorado St
0.414 mwc Wyoming @ Boise St
0.391 mwc Colorado St @ New Mexico
0.359 mwc UNLV@New Mexico
* Texas Tech @ Houston was a reverse mirror ABC/ESPN2 game listed as 3.850 million viewers as well.


If you want to add non-conference-controlled games back in, like some theory that a particular school draws viewers when it goes visiting autonomy five schools:
8.419 AAC Army-Navy
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.693 AAC Cincinnati @ Michigan
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
3.203 AAC navy @ Notre Dame
2.070 mwc Fresno St @ Alabama
1.760 mwc Utah St @ Wisconsin
1.653 mwc Colorado St @Alabama
1.580 AAC Temple @ Notre Dame
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.265 mwc Boise St @ Washington St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
1.043 mwc Boise State @ BYU
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.623 mwc Boise St-Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming

Dam! You're good. Facts are facts though 05-mafia
08-04-2018 10:54 PM
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Scoochpooch1 Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(07-25-2018 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 08:41 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Aresco is right, and that’s about 15m per team, then after bowls and cfp money, AAC teams could be pushing closer to 20m a year
Put that in your pipe and smoke it...

It sure would be awesome for USF to start collecting that kind of money.

I'm highly skeptical, but Aresco is the expert, not me. 07-coffee3

Are you really willing to bet on $15m+?
08-05-2018 02:00 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-04-2018 07:13 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(08-03-2018 11:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 11:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 09:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 06:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think they [ESPN] can pick up MW content for much less than AAC content because it gets much lower ratings and will have very few competing bidders...

I think you just answered your own question about whether ESPN would pay more for the AAC than they would for the MWC.
07-coffee3

The AAC gets much higher ratings and hasn’t had to position the American Digital Network as a potential landing spot for all AAC like the MW has. That desperate move tells me there are no other serious bidders for the MW. Meanwhile, Aresco is saying the next AAC contract will bring “multiples” (plural) of the current deal. One woukd only speak that way if they knew they had at least 3 serious bidders prepared to make a run on the AAC. It’s worth noting that the Navy rights went on the market and ESPN wasn’t the winning bidder. The AAC deal will also include the Navy-Notre Dame game every other year—which is just one more reason for NBC to make another run on the AAC.



You do get a few exceptions in the MWC that gets better ratings.

I want to assume that you mean mwc exceptions that get better ratings than majority of mwc games.
mwc exceptions that get better ratings than AAC games isn't really true.

Here are 2017's top ten most viewed games, conference-controlled only, from each of the two conferences, stacked together.
Millions of viewers-conf-game
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.758 AAC Navy @ Temple
0.699 AAC navy @ Houston
0.697 AAC Temple @ Cincinnati
0.683 AAC Memphis @ Tulsa
0.623 mwc Boise St - Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming
0.436 mwc Air Force @ Boise St
0.421 mwc Nevada @ Colorado St
0.414 mwc Wyoming @ Boise St
0.391 mwc Colorado St @ New Mexico
0.359 mwc UNLV@New Mexico
* Texas Tech @ Houston was a reverse mirror ABC/ESPN2 game listed as 3.850 million viewers as well.


If you want to add non-conference-controlled games back in, like some theory that a particular school draws viewers when it goes visiting autonomy five schools:
8.419 AAC Army-Navy
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.693 AAC Cincinnati @ Michigan
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
3.203 AAC navy @ Notre Dame
2.070 mwc Fresno St @ Alabama
1.760 mwc Utah St @ Wisconsin
1.653 mwc Colorado St @Alabama
1.580 AAC Temple @ Notre Dame
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.265 mwc Boise St @ Washington St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
1.043 mwc Boise State @ BYU
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.623 mwc Boise St-Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming


Boise State
Colorado State
New Mexico
Air Force
San Diego State
BYU
Fresno State
Those are the exceptions to the rules. Get the best of all the schools that do get a better ratings and create a new conference, you might get more money out of those group. North Dakota State and maybe Northern Illinois also draw viewers. Tulsa and Tulane and San Jose State all suck at getting people to tune in.
08-05-2018 02:27 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-05-2018 02:00 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 08:41 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Aresco is right, and that’s about 15m per team, then after bowls and cfp money, AAC teams could be pushing closer to 20m a year
Put that in your pipe and smoke it...

It sure would be awesome for USF to start collecting that kind of money.

I'm highly skeptical, but Aresco is the expert, not me. 07-coffee3

Are you really willing to bet on $15m+?
lol, heck no , I wouldn’t make a bet on what the amount could be
It’s just my gut feeling, what’s your gut feeling ?
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2018 07:35 AM by JHS55.)
08-05-2018 07:34 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #109
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-05-2018 02:00 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 08:41 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Aresco is right, and that’s about 15m per team, then after bowls and cfp money, AAC teams could be pushing closer to 20m a year
Put that in your pipe and smoke it...

It sure would be awesome for USF to start collecting that kind of money.

I'm highly skeptical, but Aresco is the expert, not me. 07-coffee3

Are you really willing to bet on $15m+?

As I said, I'm highly skeptical of that amount, even though that's what Aresco said. So obviously no.

I've been pretty consistent about my expectation. I said I expected $5m - $8m all along, but with recent developments seeming to be positive, more now towards the higher end of that range, $7m or $8m. But nowhere close to $15m.

But would I love to see it happen? Of course.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2018 07:46 AM by quo vadis.)
08-05-2018 07:45 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-05-2018 07:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(08-05-2018 02:00 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 08:41 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Aresco is right, and that’s about 15m per team, then after bowls and cfp money, AAC teams could be pushing closer to 20m a year
Put that in your pipe and smoke it...

It sure would be awesome for USF to start collecting that kind of money.

I'm highly skeptical, but Aresco is the expert, not me. 07-coffee3

Are you really willing to bet on $15m+?

As I said, I'm highly skeptical of that amount, even though that's what Aresco said. So obviously no.

I've been pretty consistent about my expectation. I said I expected $5m - $8m all along, but with recent developments seeming to be positive, more now towards the higher end of that range, $7m or $8m. But nowhere close to $15m.

But would I love to see it happen? Of course.
Yeah and it will help if the AAC has a really great year and sends a team to the NY6 bowl and wins, this would be more than helpful
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2018 08:15 AM by JHS55.)
08-05-2018 08:14 AM
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Post: #111
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
Ah, I better understand what you are saying: a better TV conference could be built jettisoning the worse performers of the AAC and adding in some of the below.
Obviously football viewership alone isn't the sole decision factor in the real world (basketball, academics and other institutional fit, geography for Olympic sports travel, etc) but this is an interesting exercise.
I went school by school, all 12 AACs and the ones you list below. I've added to your post the AAC schools each outdated in all regular season games.
Boise and BYU garnered fewer viewers than Memphis, Navy, UCF, and USF. If you take away Army-Navy (assuming that would remain it's own thing even for your hypothetical best of the rest) Navy falls behind BYU, Boise, and Houston.
The others? Not so much.
Note as well, CSU and Fresno each got two thirds of their viewers in payday games at Alabama. If we went to conference controlled or intraconference games they fall behind possibly UConn.
Bowls don't change much of the order if you add them in.

(08-05-2018 02:27 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-04-2018 07:13 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(08-03-2018 11:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 11:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 09:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I think you just answered your own question about whether ESPN would pay more for the AAC than they would for the MWC.
07-coffee3

The AAC gets much higher ratings and hasn’t had to position the American Digital Network as a potential landing spot for all AAC like the MW has. That desperate move tells me there are no other serious bidders for the MW. Meanwhile, Aresco is saying the next AAC contract will bring “multiples” (plural) of the current deal. One woukd only speak that way if they knew they had at least 3 serious bidders prepared to make a run on the AAC. It’s worth noting that the Navy rights went on the market and ESPN wasn’t the winning bidder. The AAC deal will also include the Navy-Notre Dame game every other year—which is just one more reason for NBC to make another run on the AAC.



You do get a few exceptions in the MWC that gets better ratings.

I want to assume that you mean mwc exceptions that get better ratings than majority of mwc games.
mwc exceptions that get better ratings than AAC games isn't really true.

Here are 2017's top ten most viewed games, conference-controlled only, from each of the two conferences, stacked together.
Millions of viewers-conf-game
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.758 AAC Navy @ Temple
0.699 AAC navy @ Houston
0.697 AAC Temple @ Cincinnati
0.683 AAC Memphis @ Tulsa
0.623 mwc Boise St - Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming
0.436 mwc Air Force @ Boise St
0.421 mwc Nevada @ Colorado St
0.414 mwc Wyoming @ Boise St
0.391 mwc Colorado St @ New Mexico
0.359 mwc UNLV@New Mexico
* Texas Tech @ Houston was a reverse mirror ABC/ESPN2 game listed as 3.850 million viewers as well.


If you want to add non-conference-controlled games back in, like some theory that a particular school draws viewers when it goes visiting autonomy five schools:
8.419 AAC Army-Navy
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.693 AAC Cincinnati @ Michigan
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
3.203 AAC navy @ Notre Dame
2.070 mwc Fresno St @ Alabama
1.760 mwc Utah St @ Wisconsin
1.653 mwc Colorado St @Alabama
1.580 AAC Temple @ Notre Dame
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.265 mwc Boise St @ Washington St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
1.043 mwc Boise State @ BYU
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.623 mwc Boise St-Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming


Boise State > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Colorado State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
New Mexico > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Air Force > ECU, Tulane
San Diego State > Tulane
BYU > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Fresno State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane

Those are the exceptions to the rules. Get the best of all the schools that do get a better ratings and create a new conference, you might get more money out of those group. North Dakota State and maybe Northern Illinois also draw viewers. Tulsa and Tulane and San Jose State all suck at getting people to tune in.

For a hypothetical best-of-the-rest based SOLELY on 2017's TV numbers, only SMU, Tulane, ECU fall out of the top 14. Tulsa is fighting for the top 12 if one discounts the mwc games at Alabama.
For a hypothetical best of the rest, with a holistic look, I still like SMU's basketball and location and money; I still like Tulanes academics and destination city and endowment; I still hope ECU can be what it has been in the not too distant past.
For any additions in the real world, if I think the AAC in it's current composition is worth $6 million per team per year, then for a 10% improvement in value, I need a network partner to think Boise and BYU and their viewers and their late night slots are worth $20 million per year. If I think the AAC is at the upper end of the commonly thrown around 6-8 million range, then adding them requires a network partner to value them at $27million per year for a 10% improvement.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2018 10:50 AM by slhNavy91.)
08-05-2018 10:48 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-05-2018 10:48 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Ah, I better understand what you are saying: a better TV conference could be built jettisoning the worse performers of the AAC and adding in some of the below.
Obviously football viewership alone isn't the sole decision factor in the real world (basketball, academics and other institutional fit, geography for Olympic sports travel, etc) but this is an interesting exercise.
I went school by school, all 12 AACs and the ones you list below. I've added to your post the AAC schools each outdated in all regular season games.
Boise and BYU garnered fewer viewers than Memphis, Navy, UCF, and USF. If you take away Army-Navy (assuming that would remain it's own thing even for your hypothetical best of the rest) Navy falls behind BYU, Boise, and Houston.
The others? Not so much.
Note as well, CSU and Fresno each got two thirds of their viewers in payday games at Alabama. If we went to conference controlled or intraconference games they fall behind possibly UConn.
Bowls don't change much of the order if you add them in.

(08-05-2018 02:27 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-04-2018 07:13 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(08-03-2018 11:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 11:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The AAC gets much higher ratings and hasn’t had to position the American Digital Network as a potential landing spot for all AAC like the MW has. That desperate move tells me there are no other serious bidders for the MW. Meanwhile, Aresco is saying the next AAC contract will bring “multiples” (plural) of the current deal. One woukd only speak that way if they knew they had at least 3 serious bidders prepared to make a run on the AAC. It’s worth noting that the Navy rights went on the market and ESPN wasn’t the winning bidder. The AAC deal will also include the Navy-Notre Dame game every other year—which is just one more reason for NBC to make another run on the AAC.



You do get a few exceptions in the MWC that gets better ratings.

I want to assume that you mean mwc exceptions that get better ratings than majority of mwc games.
mwc exceptions that get better ratings than AAC games isn't really true.

Here are 2017's top ten most viewed games, conference-controlled only, from each of the two conferences, stacked together.
Millions of viewers-conf-game
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.758 AAC Navy @ Temple
0.699 AAC navy @ Houston
0.697 AAC Temple @ Cincinnati
0.683 AAC Memphis @ Tulsa
0.623 mwc Boise St - Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming
0.436 mwc Air Force @ Boise St
0.421 mwc Nevada @ Colorado St
0.414 mwc Wyoming @ Boise St
0.391 mwc Colorado St @ New Mexico
0.359 mwc UNLV@New Mexico
* Texas Tech @ Houston was a reverse mirror ABC/ESPN2 game listed as 3.850 million viewers as well.


If you want to add non-conference-controlled games back in, like some theory that a particular school draws viewers when it goes visiting autonomy five schools:
8.419 AAC Army-Navy
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.693 AAC Cincinnati @ Michigan
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
3.203 AAC navy @ Notre Dame
2.070 mwc Fresno St @ Alabama
1.760 mwc Utah St @ Wisconsin
1.653 mwc Colorado St @Alabama
1.580 AAC Temple @ Notre Dame
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.265 mwc Boise St @ Washington St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
1.043 mwc Boise State @ BYU
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.623 mwc Boise St-Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming


Boise State > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Colorado State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
New Mexico > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Air Force > ECU, Tulane
San Diego State > Tulane
BYU > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Fresno State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane

Those are the exceptions to the rules. Get the best of all the schools that do get a better ratings and create a new conference, you might get more money out of those group. North Dakota State and maybe Northern Illinois also draw viewers. Tulsa and Tulane and San Jose State all suck at getting people to tune in.

For a hypothetical best-of-the-rest based SOLELY on 2017's TV numbers, only SMU, Tulane, ECU fall out of the top 14. Tulsa is fighting for the top 12 if one discounts the mwc games at Alabama.
For a hypothetical best of the rest, with a holistic look, I still like SMU's basketball and location and money; I still like Tulanes academics and destination city and endowment; I still hope ECU can be what it has been in the not too distant past.
For any additions in the real world, if I think the AAC in it's current composition is worth $6 million per team per year, then for a 10% improvement in value, I need a network partner to think Boise and BYU and their viewers and their late night slots are worth $20 million per year. If I think the AAC is at the upper end of the commonly thrown around 6-8 million range, then adding them requires a network partner to value them at $27million per year for a 10% improvement.

And realistically, you’d need those two teams to add 10% to the deal PLUS the extra travel costs to make it worth doing. So it might really require a 15-20% improvement in the per school TV payout to make such additions attractive.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2018 11:12 AM by Attackcoog.)
08-05-2018 11:10 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #113
RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-05-2018 11:10 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(08-05-2018 10:48 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Ah, I better understand what you are saying: a better TV conference could be built jettisoning the worse performers of the AAC and adding in some of the below.
Obviously football viewership alone isn't the sole decision factor in the real world (basketball, academics and other institutional fit, geography for Olympic sports travel, etc) but this is an interesting exercise.
I went school by school, all 12 AACs and the ones you list below. I've added to your post the AAC schools each outdated in all regular season games.
Boise and BYU garnered fewer viewers than Memphis, Navy, UCF, and USF. If you take away Army-Navy (assuming that would remain it's own thing even for your hypothetical best of the rest) Navy falls behind BYU, Boise, and Houston.
The others? Not so much.
Note as well, CSU and Fresno each got two thirds of their viewers in payday games at Alabama. If we went to conference controlled or intraconference games they fall behind possibly UConn.
Bowls don't change much of the order if you add them in.

(08-05-2018 02:27 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-04-2018 07:13 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(08-03-2018 11:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  You do get a few exceptions in the MWC that gets better ratings.

I want to assume that you mean mwc exceptions that get better ratings than majority of mwc games.
mwc exceptions that get better ratings than AAC games isn't really true.

Here are 2017's top ten most viewed games, conference-controlled only, from each of the two conferences, stacked together.
Millions of viewers-conf-game
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.758 AAC Navy @ Temple
0.699 AAC navy @ Houston
0.697 AAC Temple @ Cincinnati
0.683 AAC Memphis @ Tulsa
0.623 mwc Boise St - Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming
0.436 mwc Air Force @ Boise St
0.421 mwc Nevada @ Colorado St
0.414 mwc Wyoming @ Boise St
0.391 mwc Colorado St @ New Mexico
0.359 mwc UNLV@New Mexico
* Texas Tech @ Houston was a reverse mirror ABC/ESPN2 game listed as 3.850 million viewers as well.


If you want to add non-conference-controlled games back in, like some theory that a particular school draws viewers when it goes visiting autonomy five schools:
8.419 AAC Army-Navy
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.693 AAC Cincinnati @ Michigan
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
3.203 AAC navy @ Notre Dame
2.070 mwc Fresno St @ Alabama
1.760 mwc Utah St @ Wisconsin
1.653 mwc Colorado St @Alabama
1.580 AAC Temple @ Notre Dame
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.265 mwc Boise St @ Washington St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
1.043 mwc Boise State @ BYU
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.623 mwc Boise St-Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming


Boise State > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Colorado State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
New Mexico > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Air Force > ECU, Tulane
San Diego State > Tulane
BYU > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Fresno State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane

Those are the exceptions to the rules. Get the best of all the schools that do get a better ratings and create a new conference, you might get more money out of those group. North Dakota State and maybe Northern Illinois also draw viewers. Tulsa and Tulane and San Jose State all suck at getting people to tune in.

For a hypothetical best-of-the-rest based SOLELY on 2017's TV numbers, only SMU, Tulane, ECU fall out of the top 14. Tulsa is fighting for the top 12 if one discounts the mwc games at Alabama.
For a hypothetical best of the rest, with a holistic look, I still like SMU's basketball and location and money; I still like Tulanes academics and destination city and endowment; I still hope ECU can be what it has been in the not too distant past.
For any additions in the real world, if I think the AAC in it's current composition is worth $6 million per team per year, then for a 10% improvement in value, I need a network partner to think Boise and BYU and their viewers and their late night slots are worth $20 million per year. If I think the AAC is at the upper end of the commonly thrown around 6-8 million range, then adding them requires a network partner to value them at $27million per year for a 10% improvement.

And realistically, you’d need those two teams to add 10% to the deal PLUS the extra travel costs to make it worth doing. So it might really require a 15-20% improvement in the per school TV payout to make such additions attractive.

The idea of western schools joining an eastern conference with UConn, Temple,Navy, ECU,USF, UCF, Cincinnati and Memphis makes 0 sense now (if it ever did)..,
Good luck with Indy BYU.
08-05-2018 08:12 PM
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