(10-19-2018 08:47 AM)OKIcat Wrote: (10-19-2018 07:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-18-2018 09:41 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote: Why would the Pac-12 do a challenge with the American?
The last thing the P6 (the P5 + Big East) want is to be seen as less than in the national stage. Perception is everything and the Pac-12 will not embarrass themselves in signing with the AAC and having its legitimacy at the big table being questioned.
Yes, it's a good rule of thumb in college athletics, and hell life generally, that in hierarchical relations "if you want to affiliate with them, chances are they don't want to affiliate with you". 
The Pac 12 is on an island west of the Rockies, isolated from the rest of the P5. National TV audiences are sub par compared with its peer group. It's little wonder with their conference games often starting at 11 p.m. in the recruit and media rich markets east of the Rockies. The only reason the Pac 12 would enter a "challenge" is if they perceive it to be beneficial. The AAC can deliver prime time visibility on ESPN in major TV markets in the northeast, midwest and south against its top tier schools providing needed exposure.
Looking back to the split of the old Big East, the new Big East took the cash and gave up the national viewership the old Big East once enjoyed with ESPN (Of course that's partly due to the fact that the powers of the old Big East all left, save Villanova). The AAC has retained a larger audience share by remaining on ESPN, with a short term reduction in cash.
So to the point about TV being involved in partnering to create the "challenges", the Fox relationships with the Big 12 and B10 suggest it's in their company's best interest to create higher profile games for their own TV partners, rather than "made for TV" matchups that generate higher revenue games which must be split alternate years with another provider such as the market leading ESPN networks, the AAC's TV partner.
The AAC will substantially improve its financial standing in the next TV contract, with ESPN or a new provider. Conversely, the new Big East members have little reason to be optimistic about what FS1 might offer next based upon disappointing audience size to date.
Bottom line: could an AAC challenge with the Pac 12 be mutually beneficial and a viable possibility? I say yes, especially if ESPN wants it to happen. Such scheduling decisions will likely be points of leverage in the upcoming AAC TV negotiations. Stay tuned...and follow the dollars.
This view always makes me chuckle because it is such a narrow-minded viewpoint in the big picture of things.
Firstly, the AAC did not choose to take a reduction in revenue from ESPN. They were paid what their market dictated. Secondly, I would argue that it was not a short-term reduction either. For seven years, with a few still to go, the AAC was paid slightly better than the rest of the G5 conferences, and absolute peanuts compared to P5 conferences. Some like to proclaim about the long-term threats of an inevitable separation between the P5 and the G5, but the split already occurred in 2013. With the P5 earning 15-20x what the G5 have been making for this contract cycle, the race has already been determined. Even with a bump in pay for the American, it is still not enough to keep pace with the P5. Having said that, the top portion of the American is absolutely capable (and quite frankly deserving) of being included in this grouping (i.e. UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis); however, for the bottom portion of the conference, there are strong arguments that they should absolutely not be included.
With your points on the Big East, once again, the conference was paid what its market value dictated. The Big East, IMO, will be a strong asset for any network moving forward because of the strong markets it holds, the elite level of success the conference has had (and will continue to have), and its marketable brand which has held strong for decades. The league will have the most ever games on big Fox this year, and the league's reputation with other power conferences remains strong. Finally, if you look at recruiting, the Big East is still recruiting at a high-level in comparison to the other power conferences. Recruits value basketball-first schools in big cities. CBS just recently posted its top-100 players in the NCAA - the Big East had three players in the top-20; the American had three players total in the top-100, and their first player was #62.
The fact ESPN, now, speaks so highly of the Big East, and has even had multiple on-air personalities campaign for UConn to return to the Big East (and unintentionally, or intentionally, effect its own property in the American), speaks that there is still a strong market for its rights from competitors. The Big East Tournament is still one of the best college basketball tournaments in the country, and the attendance proves that. Now, if the attendance at Big East games/tournament was poor, then that would be a major red flag. However, no matter what the ratings, no one wants to see an empty arena/stadium for a contest. Unfortunately, several AAC programs struggle mightily with attendance in football and/or basketball. If fans do not show up in person for games, what market is there for people to intentionally tune in on networks? I think that is the biggest question moving forward.
Unfortunately, the American acquired the Big East Football's reputation and perception as "the best of the rest" conference from the power conferences. Despite the on-field successes, the league will never truly be considered a peer by the P5 or by the networks. When a program out-performs its value in the American (like UCF is currently doing now), then the networks will incentivize the P5 to poach the AAC to drive down its value (like it repeatedly did to the old Big East). Like I said, programs like UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati and Memphis are in solid position to get taken; however, for the other programs, I have difficulty seeing an optimal way out.
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Big East/BXII Challenge
