Trying to figure out how the ACC will fare in out-of-conference games this coming football season. What does the board think??

Which are the swing games, that will help, or hurt, the ACC's rep as a football conference?

Looking at it school-by-school ... bolded games are my swing games (purely my opinion, nothing else).

Boston College
UMass
Holy Cross
At Purdue
Temple

Going to hope BC gets all 4, but will predict 3 and 1, losing to Purdue. Temple is no slouch though, either.

Clemson
Furman
At Texas A&M
Georgia Southern
South Carolina

I think Clemson is the best team in the country, so I think they get all 4 of these. Tell Jimbo we said hey. 4 and 0.

Duke
Army
At Northwestern
At Baylor
NC Central

I have no idea what Duke will do this year. I hope they sweep these, but for the sake of not totally being a homer, I'll put them at 3 and 1.

Florida State
Samford
Northern Illinois
At Notre Dame
Florida


I bet the Noles drop one to either ND or Florida. Put me down for 3 and 1.

Georgia Tech
Alcorn State
At South Florida
Bowling Green
At Georgia

This looks like 3 and 1 to me.

Louisville
vs Alabama
Indiana State
Western Kentucky
Kentucky

Boy oh boy, wouldn't 4 and 0 be awesome here?? Sadly, I think this is a solid 3 and 1.

Miami
vs. LSU
Savannah State
At Toledo
FIU

Gonna go ahead and say it ... 4 and 0. (Obviously, LSU is the tough one here. But their coach ... come on man. You got this Canes.).

North Carolina
At Cal
At East Carolina
UCF
Western Carolina

C'mon Heels. Gotta get some revenge against Cal. Put me down for 2 and 2 though. Cal and UCF. Pirates are pesky, and will have the motivation to want to pull the upset, and a raucous home crowd. But the Heels will get this one. Right? Right??

NC State
James Madison
Georgia State
West Virginia
At Marshall

That game versus Mountain Momma could give us a Big XII scalp. I'm gonna say 4 and 0 here. But I know nothing about WVU.

Pitt
Albany
Penn State
At UCF
At Notre Dame

Dayum boys. 3 toughies. I'll root for better, but I'll put you down for 2 and 2.

Syracuse
At Western Michigan
Wagner
UConn
vs Notre Dame

Western Michigan on the road. Mmmm. A tough one to start. But I'm putting my faith in Dino and the boys there. Put me down for 3 and 1.

Virginia
Richmond
At Indiana
Ohio
Liberty

The Hoosiers. On the road. UVA rebuilding a bit. Hopefully ... the Cavs can do it. It should be a good game. But put me down for 3 and 1.

Virginia Tech
William & Mary
East Carolina
At Old Dominion
Notre Dame

Hosting the Irish. Could be electric. I want to say 4 and 0 here. I really do. But put me down for 3 and 1.

Wake Forest
At Tulane
Towson
Notre Dame
Rice

3 and 1.

So ... grand total ... 43 and 13. Not too bad. BUT ...

Of the bolded games, 8 and 13. Oomph. And there are other tough games not bolded too.

Where am I wrong? Surely all over the place. But just trying to get some football talk going before the season starts.


.

It's ACC football. First rule of out of conference scheduling is to be unreasonable and underperform on top of that. Probable Losses:

Boston College: @Purdue, Temple
Duke: @Northwestern
Florida State: Florida
Georgia Tech: @USF, @U[sic]GA
Louisville: @Alabama, vs Kentucky
Miami: vs. LSU
North Carolina: @Cal, @ECU, UCF
NC State: West Virginia
Pitt: Penn State, @UCF
Virginia: @Indiana .... and I have tossup confidence in Ohio
Virginia Tech: ECU ... it's VT's favorite team to derp against. And if VT lets ODU hang around on their home field that could turn into bizarro-world for them.

I've bolded the games the ACC has no business playing in the first place on this list. Not included is @WMU for Syracuse. Good thing for the Orange Fleck cashed out on Kalamazoo ... or they'd be in a world of trouble.

I think Duke loses at Northwestern AND one of Army or Baylor.
UNC could easily go 1-3 (they won't lose to W. Carolina).
Pitt could also go 1-3, but against a much tougher schedule.
OTOH, I could see UVA winning all 4 of its OOC games...

(07-31-2018 09:45 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Probable Losses:

Louisville: @Alabama, vs Kentucky

I've bolded the games the ACC has no business playing in the first place on this list.

I agree that there is no good reason for Louisville to be playing Alabama. Guaranteed loss and they easily could be run off the field to open the year, ensuring you are forgotten by pollsters unless you go on a long winning streak.

I don't see how one lists Kentucky as a probable loss however. The Vegas pre-season spread has Louisville as an -8.5 point favorite, and Louisville has won 6 of the last 7 in the series.

It is entirely possible that State beats West Virginia and then loses at Marshall. IIRC Marshall's QB came back this year and they are coached by former NC State assistant Doc Holiday. I've seen this pattern play out for the last 40 years - beat a top 15 or so team then the next week come out totally lethargic until the 4th quarter, stage a furious rally but lose half of those games. The pattern also holds if State plays a top 15 close and gets beat at the end.

I attribute it to a historic lack of depth at key positions. We might have NFL Starting QB or Defensive Lineman but his replacement is a scrub. Over time that bites you.

(08-01-2018 07:29 AM)CollegeCard Wrote:  I don't see how one lists Kentucky as a probable loss however. The Vegas pre-season spread has Louisville as an -8.5 point favorite, and Louisville has won 6 of the last 7 in the series.

The table setting looks awfully familiar to 2016.

I think it's going to be much worse than you do. Biggest reason, quarterback play. Aside from NC State (and Syracuse sort of - but Dungy's health means it's always a question), this is a really down year for QBs in the ACC. BC and VT have promising starters, but they're true sophomores.

In recent years, the conference has avoided so many of the classic embarrassing G5 and FCS losses that were so common, but I think we see them come storming back for this season.

I think in conference play is going to be pretty interesting and fun to watch this year, but I'm not sure it's going to be the best year nationally for the ACC. That said, I was expecting a step back last year, and improbably the ACC ended up with a guaranteed playoff spot going into the ACCCG, which is about as solid as it's going to get.

Boston College: 4-0
UMass
Holy Cross
At Purdue
Temple

BC is gonna be too tough for Purdue, should easily beat the rest of that schedule

Clemson: 4-0
Furman
At Texas A&M
Georgia Southern
South Carolina

Too much talent. Nuff said

Duke: 2-2
Army
At Northwestern
At Baylor
NC Central

Is going to lose to Northwestern and will drop one of Army/Baylor

Florida State: 3-1
Samford
Northern Illinois
At Notre Dame
Florida

Don't see them winning at ND this year

Georgia Tech: 3-1
Alcorn State
At South Florida
Bowling Green
At Georgia

One loss for sure. At USF won't be a walk in the park either, but USF lost more talent than GT.

Louisville: 3-1
vs Alabama
Indiana State
Western Kentucky
Kentucky

No chance against Bama

Miami: 3-1
vs. LSU
Savannah State
At Toledo
FIU

LSU is gonna surprise people this year with Burrow relative to their schedule. At Toledo would have been dangerous last year, but won't be this year.

North Carolina: 2-2
At Cal
At East Carolina
UCF
Western Carolina

They'll take care of the Carolina schools but aren't winning at Cal or beating the defending National Champs

NC State: 3-1
James Madison
Georgia State
West Virginia
At Marshall

WVU is legit. They might need to worry about JMU as well

Pitt: 1-3
Albany
Penn State
At UCF
At Notre Dame

Sorry Pitt fans

Syracuse: 3-1
At Western Michigan
Wagner
UConn
vs Notre Dame

Don't have the depth to compete with Notre Dame in November

Virginia: 2-2
Richmond
At Indiana
Ohio
Liberty

Indiana has more talent than UVA and is at home. Ohio might win the MAC behind one of the most underrated QBs in the country

Virginia Tech: 3-1
William & Mary
East Carolina
At Old Dominion
Notre Dame

Too many losses on defense to hold up against Notre Dame

Wake Forest: 3-1
At Tulane
Towson
Notre Dame
Rice

What a joke of a non-con schedule. lol

Conference non-con finish: 39-17

(07-31-2018 09:45 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It's ACC football. First rule of out of conference scheduling is to be unreasonable and underperform on top of that.

Yeah, there's a reason #goacc is a thing.

(08-01-2018 04:12 PM)orange_in_VA Wrote:  Boston College: 4-0
UMass
Holy Cross
At Purdue
Temple

BC is gonna be too tough for Purdue, should easily beat the rest of that schedule

We can definitely beat BC. We have a good defense, and should have a significantly better offense with a ton of weapons.

(08-01-2018 05:04 PM)JHG722 Wrote:  

(08-01-2018 04:12 PM)orange_in_VA Wrote:  Boston College: 4-0
UMass
Holy Cross
At Purdue
Temple

BC is gonna be too tough for Purdue, should easily beat the rest of that schedule

We can definitely beat BC. We have a good defense, and should have a significantly better offense with a ton of weapons.

It's possible. I like BC at home with Dillon, improved Anthony Brown and a nasty defense that will have 3-5 guys getting drafted after this season

(08-01-2018 12:01 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(08-01-2018 07:29 AM)CollegeCard Wrote:  I don't see how one lists Kentucky as a probable loss however. The Vegas pre-season spread has Louisville as an -8.5 point favorite, and Louisville has won 6 of the last 7 in the series.

The table setting looks awfully familiar to 2016.

I can't say UofL beats UK for sure in November, not here in August. However, I don't see the connection between 2018 and 2016.

No one saw the 2016 upset coming. It's the only time UK has won the rivalry in the last 7 seasons, but Louisville was a 26.5 point favorite the week of the game. This will have a closer spread, but I'm missing the connection.

Just curious about this, but do you guys generally find yourself rooting FOR other ACC teams when playing out of conference? Or do you not give a sh!t?


I find myself hoping they all win. But we're new to the conference, and had always found ourselves in conferences where the ONLY credibility gained was when many in the conference performed well between the lines (all sports). On top of that, those of us in the state have to deal with the mouth breathers wearing blue who are so full of SEC crap, that countering that is reflexive.

So maybe it's just how I have been conditioned. And not something others do.

(08-01-2018 05:42 PM)orange_in_VA Wrote:  

(08-01-2018 05:04 PM)JHG722 Wrote:  

(08-01-2018 04:12 PM)orange_in_VA Wrote:  Boston College: 4-0
UMass
Holy Cross
At Purdue
Temple

BC is gonna be too tough for Purdue, should easily beat the rest of that schedule

We can definitely beat BC. We have a good defense, and should have a significantly better offense with a ton of weapons.

It's possible. I like BC at home with Dillon, improved Anthony Brown and a nasty defense that will have 3-5 guys getting drafted after this season

Dillon is good, but their offense is the type of offense we generally thrive against. It's the wide-open, spread it all over the field teams that give us trouble. LB is probably our best position, and we're decently stout on the DL.

(08-01-2018 07:04 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  Just curious about this, but do you guys generally find yourself rooting FOR other ACC teams when playing out of conference? Or do you not give a sh!t?


I find myself hoping they all win. But we're new to the conference, and had always found ourselves in conferences where the ONLY credibility gained was when many in the conference performed well between the lines (all sports). On top of that, those of us in the state have to deal with the mouth breathers wearing blue who are so full of SEC crap, that countering that is reflexive.

So maybe it's just how I have been conditioned. And not something others do.

I feel the same as you - I'm tired of hearing from both SEC and Big Ten fans, so I hope all ACC teams win OOC.

(08-01-2018 07:04 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  Just curious about this, but do you guys generally find yourself rooting FOR other ACC teams when playing out of conference? Or do you not give a sh!t?


I find myself hoping they all win. But we're new to the conference, and had always found ourselves in conferences where the ONLY credibility gained was when many in the conference performed well between the lines (all sports). On top of that, those of us in the state have to deal with the mouth breathers wearing blue who are so full of SEC crap, that countering that is reflexive.

So maybe it's just how I have been conditioned. And not something others do.

Yeah, I do. You almost have to now if you're in the PAC, B12 or ACC, to hope your champion has enough gravitas to get into the playoffs.

That said, I probably shouldn't care if an ACC team that's not FSU gets into the playoffs or not, but the more often the ACC is seen as playoff caliber, the better for FSU when it gets in that conversation.

That's in addition to all the nebulous stuff of making the ACCN more in demand, etc.

The biggest personal devastation caused by conference realignment is the fact that I now sometimes root for the Canes out of conference, as absurd as that is. I should want them to lose every game, the way I used to. It makes me feel disgusting. Hopefully someday soon the ACC's football prowess will be so unquestioned that they can go all Virginia out of conference every year.

The worst ACC teams should go 4-8, with those 4 wins all being OOC.
That just boosts the resume for every team that beats them in conference. Keeps the wins "in the family".

As to rooting for your rival: I hope UVA goes 4-8 every year! That way VT still gets the maximum benefit, while UVA gets the minimum.

(08-01-2018 04:12 PM)orange_in_VA Wrote:  Boston College: 4-0
UMass
Holy Cross
At Purdue
Temple

BC is gonna be too tough for Purdue, should easily beat the rest of that schedule

Clemson: 4-0
Furman
At Texas A&M
Georgia Southern
South Carolina

Too much talent. Nuff said

Duke: 2-2
Army
At Northwestern
At Baylor
NC Central

Is going to lose to Northwestern and will drop one of Army/Baylor

Florida State: 3-1
Samford
Northern Illinois
At Notre Dame
Florida

Don't see them winning at ND this year

Georgia Tech: 3-1
Alcorn State
At South Florida
Bowling Green
At Georgia

One loss for sure. At USF won't be a walk in the park either, but USF lost more talent than GT.

Louisville: 3-1
vs Alabama
Indiana State
Western Kentucky
Kentucky

No chance against Bama

Miami: 3-1
vs. LSU
Savannah State
At Toledo
FIU

LSU is gonna surprise people this year with Burrow relative to their schedule. At Toledo would have been dangerous last year, but won't be this year.

North Carolina: 2-2
At Cal
At East Carolina
UCF
Western Carolina

They'll take care of the Carolina schools but aren't winning at Cal or beating the defending National Champs

NC State: 3-1
James Madison
Georgia State
West Virginia
At Marshall

WVU is legit. They might need to worry about JMU as well

Pitt: 1-3
Albany
Penn State
At UCF
At Notre Dame

Sorry Pitt fans

Syracuse: 3-1
At Western Michigan
Wagner
UConn
vs Notre Dame

Don't have the depth to compete with Notre Dame in November

Virginia: 2-2
Richmond
At Indiana
Ohio
Liberty

Indiana has more talent than UVA and is at home. Ohio might win the MAC behind one of the most underrated QBs in the country

Virginia Tech: 3-1
William & Mary
East Carolina
At Old Dominion
Notre Dame

Too many losses on defense to hold up against Notre Dame

Wake Forest: 3-1
At Tulane
Towson
Notre Dame
Rice

What a joke of a non-con schedule. lol

Conference non-con finish: 39-17

When you lay it out like he did, it's hard not to come away with the impression that this is scheduling for wins, not credibility. Feels like the weakest OOC schedule we've had in recent years. And maybe the ACC needs that this year. It doesn't feel like we are quite as strong as we have been top to bottom.

You all are way underestimating Marshall, especially at home. I think they will beat NC State. I say Miami goes 4-0. Toledo game scares me a bit but I think it could be a repeat of the App State beatdown in Boone from a couple years ago.

(08-01-2018 07:04 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  Just curious about this, but do you guys generally find yourself rooting FOR other ACC teams when playing out of conference? Or do you not give a sh!t?


I find myself hoping they all win. But we're new to the conference, and had always found ourselves in conferences where the ONLY credibility gained was when many in the conference performed well between the lines (all sports). On top of that, those of us in the state have to deal with the mouth breathers wearing blue who are so full of SEC crap, that countering that is reflexive.

So maybe it's just how I have been conditioned. And not something others do.

I will root for whatever teams I like, you won't catch me rooting for Miami over LSU, and I will be rooting for Ohio over UVA (went to Ohio for graduate school). Otherwise if two programs are playing in which I really don't have an affinity for (such as NCST vs WVU) I will pull for the ACC lean due to it helping FSU (same is true for a MAC vs Non ACC school for Ohio's help). I try to stay away for the conference raw raw mentality, however I still want what is best for the schools I care about.