(09-06-2018 06:55 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 04:57 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 03:14 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 08:15 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 08:11 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  3 million a year would be a massive failure and might even cost us UConn.

Where is UConn going? Only option would be Indy and big east. So they would pay $10 million exit, lose cfp money, and any shot at upgrading conferences later. Not happening. Right now UCF is the most valuable team.

If the tv money comes in low enough that the AAC money versus Big East and independent tv contracts are basically a wash then a potential move by UConn to the Big East is viable. For a school that runs an $80 million annual athletic budget the exit fee isn't some deal breaker, and UConn's always going to make it's name on basketball first.

Just win against Boise. I hate the blue field but will watch to see UConn represent the AAC.

If you want the money, get it done.

AMEN BROTHER!!

I too hate the blue field, but i doubt ill watch the game.


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(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:11 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 05:49 PM)Pitt Co Pirates Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 04:07 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  $12 million is not alot though that's roughly $1.5 million per school. Plus it would be alot cheaper in ESPN's eyes to have the big 12 take 4 really good schools versus paying teams like ECU, Tulane, SMU, Temple, and UCONN $8-10 million dollars a year for mediocre football at best.

That shipped has sailed, wishful thinking. Not the right attitude as well. Our 12 schools are a cohesive group. Big 12 extorted their last money at ESPN buying out the clause to increase for new membership. That was done for the exact reason to not expand. That appeased Big 12 membership. Texas doesn't want it and they have the voting block. OU board of regents don't want it and they shut their chancellor down. Now if you had Nebreska, Colorado, or A&M sure the blueblood schools would consider that. The rest is a pipe dream.

Well the way i look at is espn was willing to pay $12 million not to expand for 3 years in order to save money. But now that negotiations are coming up with the aac they may force the big 12 to expand in order to avoid paying us.


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The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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So you don't think that the American will have any other bidders than ESPN? I've noticed that posters that want to disparage the new contract negotiations seem to always have a blind spot about other bidders and tend to focus only on an ESPN all or nothing bid. Never mind that it's been talked about to death that the conference is planning to break the inventory into tiered packages to attract more bidders and maximize profits.

(09-06-2018 07:06 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:11 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 05:49 PM)Pitt Co Pirates Wrote:  That shipped has sailed, wishful thinking. Not the right attitude as well. Our 12 schools are a cohesive group. Big 12 extorted their last money at ESPN buying out the clause to increase for new membership. That was done for the exact reason to not expand. That appeased Big 12 membership. Texas doesn't want it and they have the voting block. OU board of regents don't want it and they shut their chancellor down. Now if you had Nebreska, Colorado, or A&M sure the blueblood schools would consider that. The rest is a pipe dream.

Well the way i look at is espn was willing to pay $12 million not to expand for 3 years in order to save money. But now that negotiations are coming up with the aac they may force the big 12 to expand in order to avoid paying us.


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The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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So you don't think that the American will have any other bidders than ESPN? I've noticed that posters that want to disparage the new contract negotiations seem to always have a blind spot about other bidders and tend to focus only on an ESPN all or nothing bid. Never mind that it's been talked about to death that the conference is planning to break the inventory into tiered packages to attract more bidders and maximize profits.

We may have few but even then it will still add up to only $8 million and if any of its on espn they will just relegate it to espn+ for not sticking soley with them. Ya we might get more money but thats it. We wont get a great bowl tie in or a shot at the playoff. Espn has too much power to ever let that happen.


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(09-06-2018 06:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  AAC TV $ + AAC CFP $ +AAC Bowl $ >= Big East TV $ today. With the crappy 2013 contract.
Divide Big East $ by one more mouth to feed...any REALISTIC estimate of UConn independent football value (spoken as fan of an actually valuable independent football program three years ago)...
There may be a lot of reasons for UConn administration to want BigEast hoops and Indy/MAC/FCS football, but math and money aren't among them

The Big East gets extra shares up to 12 members so there's no dividing extra ways, and UConn should be able to get a nominal deal for their football program as the premium for Fox to get UConn's men's and women's teams as well as the football team over (eventually) Saint Louis' men's team (they'd also get extra inventory, as adding UConn would bring in a 20-game schedule). A lot depends on where the AAC's tv deal goes - if the conference starts paying out $15 million per member (counting everything) that's a big deal, but if the difference between BE+indy vs. AAC payout starts looking more like $7.5 million vs. $9ish million then UConn won't be handcuffed by finances either way.

(09-06-2018 07:27 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  AAC TV $ + AAC CFP $ +AAC Bowl $ >= Big East TV $ today. With the crappy 2013 contract.
Divide Big East $ by one more mouth to feed...any REALISTIC estimate of UConn independent football value (spoken as fan of an actually valuable independent football program three years ago)...
There may be a lot of reasons for UConn administration to want BigEast hoops and Indy/MAC/FCS football, but math and money aren't among them

The Big East gets extra shares up to 12 members so there's no dividing extra ways, and UConn should be able to get a nominal deal for their football program as the premium for Fox to get UConn's men's and women's teams as well as the football team over (eventually) Saint Louis' men's team (they'd also get extra inventory, as adding UConn would bring in a 20-game schedule). A lot depends on where the AAC's tv deal goes - if the conference starts paying out $15 million per member (counting everything) that's a big deal, but if the difference between BE+indy vs. AAC payout starts looking more like $7.5 million vs. $9ish million then UConn won't be handcuffed by finances either way.

I say, HAVE AT IT. GOOD LUCK TO YOU!

(09-06-2018 07:27 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  AAC TV $ + AAC CFP $ +AAC Bowl $ >= Big East TV $ today. With the crappy 2013 contract.
Divide Big East $ by one more mouth to feed...any REALISTIC estimate of UConn independent football value (spoken as fan of an actually valuable independent football program three years ago)...
There may be a lot of reasons for UConn administration to want BigEast hoops and Indy/MAC/FCS football, but math and money aren't among them

The Big East gets extra shares up to 12 members so there's no dividing extra ways, and UConn should be able to get a nominal deal for their football program as the premium for Fox to get UConn's men's and women's teams as well as the football team over (eventually) Saint Louis' men's team (they'd also get extra inventory, as adding UConn would bring in a 20-game schedule). A lot depends on where the AAC's tv deal goes - if the conference starts paying out $15 million per member (counting everything) that's a big deal, but if the difference between BE+indy vs. AAC payout starts looking more like $7.5 million vs. $9ish million then UConn won't be handcuffed by finances either way.

We're not getting $15M, so you guys could save some time and head out now, lol.

(09-06-2018 07:27 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  AAC TV $ + AAC CFP $ +AAC Bowl $ >= Big East TV $ today. With the crappy 2013 contract.
Divide Big East $ by one more mouth to feed...any REALISTIC estimate of UConn independent football value (spoken as fan of an actually valuable independent football program three years ago)...
There may be a lot of reasons for UConn administration to want BigEast hoops and Indy/MAC/FCS football, but math and money aren't among them

The Big East gets extra shares up to 12 members so there's no dividing extra ways, and UConn should be able to get a nominal deal for their football program as the premium for Fox to get UConn's men's and women's teams as well as the football team over (eventually) Saint Louis' men's team (they'd also get extra inventory, as adding UConn would bring in a 20-game schedule). A lot depends on where the AAC's tv deal goes - if the conference starts paying out $15 million per member (counting everything) that's a big deal, but if the difference between BE+indy vs. AAC payout starts looking more like $7.5 million vs. $9ish million then UConn won't be handcuffed by finances either way.

15 mil!!! LOL and i think the people saying 10 mil are a crazy!!!

(09-06-2018 07:12 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 07:06 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:11 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  Well the way i look at is espn was willing to pay $12 million not to expand for 3 years in order to save money. But now that negotiations are coming up with the aac they may force the big 12 to expand in order to avoid paying us.


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The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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So you don't think that the American will have any other bidders than ESPN? I've noticed that posters that want to disparage the new contract negotiations seem to always have a blind spot about other bidders and tend to focus only on an ESPN all or nothing bid. Never mind that it's been talked about to death that the conference is planning to break the inventory into tiered packages to attract more bidders and maximize profits.

We may have few but even then it will still add up to only $8 million and if any of its on espn they will just relegate it to espn+ for not sticking soley with them. Ya we might get more money but thats it. We wont get a great bowl tie in or a shot at the playoff. Espn has too much power to ever let that happen.


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Its a long road to this conference becoming anything even remotely close to a P5. The first step is establishing ourselves as something clearly different from the rest of the G5. Eight million per team would do that. It means better coaches. It means being able to offer more amenities and better facilities than any other G5. Yes---such a deal would merely be the first milestone on a long long journey---but it is still a very significant milestone.

(09-06-2018 10:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 07:12 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 07:06 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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So you don't think that the American will have any other bidders than ESPN? I've noticed that posters that want to disparage the new contract negotiations seem to always have a blind spot about other bidders and tend to focus only on an ESPN all or nothing bid. Never mind that it's been talked about to death that the conference is planning to break the inventory into tiered packages to attract more bidders and maximize profits.

We may have few but even then it will still add up to only $8 million and if any of its on espn they will just relegate it to espn+ for not sticking soley with them. Ya we might get more money but thats it. We wont get a great bowl tie in or a shot at the playoff. Espn has too much power to ever let that happen.


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Its a long road to this conference becoming anything even remotely close to a P5. The first step is establishing ourselves as something clearly different from the rest of the G5. Eight million per team would do that. It means better coaches. It means being able to offer more amenities and better facilities than any other G5. Yes---such a deal would merely be the first milestone on a long long journey---but it is still a very significant milestone.

So basically we will all be dead by the time it happens...


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(09-06-2018 07:27 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  AAC TV $ + AAC CFP $ +AAC Bowl $ >= Big East TV $ today. With the crappy 2013 contract.
Divide Big East $ by one more mouth to feed...any REALISTIC estimate of UConn independent football value (spoken as fan of an actually valuable independent football program three years ago)...
There may be a lot of reasons for UConn administration to want BigEast hoops and Indy/MAC/FCS football, but math and money aren't among them

The Big East gets extra shares up to 12 members so there's no dividing extra ways, and UConn should be able to get a nominal deal for their football program as the premium for Fox to get UConn's men's and women's teams as well as the football team over (eventually) Saint Louis' men's team (they'd also get extra inventory, as adding UConn would bring in a 20-game schedule). A lot depends on where the AAC's tv deal goes - if the conference starts paying out $15 million per member (counting everything) that's a big deal, but if the difference between BE+indy vs. AAC payout starts looking more like $7.5 million vs. $9ish million then UConn won't be handcuffed by finances either way.

The break even between the Big East and AAC is not as high as you might think. At anything over 3 million per team---its close enough to be a wash. It’s not going to be worth paying 10 million and throwing UConn football underneath the indy bus to hang out with UMass. However, a media deal at 3 million or below---The Big East is an option.

That said, UConn is working with about a 10 million dollar conference distribution that isnt that much different than it was during the Big East days (due to the realignment fund). Thats what UConn ideally wants to break even with. When it comes to matching that payout---the Big East wont really help at all.

The current normal "unjuiced" AAC conference distribution is only about 3-4 million per team. So, we will need about a 6-7 million per team RAISE for UConn to match its current payout. Thats a media deal worth 8-10 million per team. A lot has to go right to hit that range---but I think we will get close. I absolutely think we will get a raise big enough that the Big East wont be financially attractive.

(09-06-2018 10:31 PM)Huskypride Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 07:27 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

if the conference starts paying out $15 million per member (counting everything) that's a big deal, but if the difference between BE+indy vs. AAC payout starts looking more like $7.5 million vs. $9ish million then UConn won't be handcuffed by finances either way.

15 mil!!! LOL and i think the people saying 10 mil are a crazy!!!

This...

$6 Mil and UCONN's eyes don't wander.

My guess is the number is around $5 million each. Not to be rude, but we have a lot of dead weight that doesn't pull ratings. $5 million would put us head and shoulders above the others and around BYU level.

(09-07-2018 07:14 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  $6 Mil and UCONN's eyes don't wander.

My story and I'm sticking to it.

(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:11 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 05:49 PM)Pitt Co Pirates Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 04:07 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  $12 million is not alot though that's roughly $1.5 million per school. Plus it would be alot cheaper in ESPN's eyes to have the big 12 take 4 really good schools versus paying teams like ECU, Tulane, SMU, Temple, and UCONN $8-10 million dollars a year for mediocre football at best.

That shipped has sailed, wishful thinking. Not the right attitude as well. Our 12 schools are a cohesive group. Big 12 extorted their last money at ESPN buying out the clause to increase for new membership. That was done for the exact reason to not expand. That appeased Big 12 membership. Texas doesn't want it and they have the voting block. OU board of regents don't want it and they shut their chancellor down. Now if you had Nebreska, Colorado, or A&M sure the blueblood schools would consider that. The rest is a pipe dream.

Well the way i look at is espn was willing to pay $12 million not to expand for 3 years in order to save money. But now that negotiations are coming up with the aac they may force the big 12 to expand in order to avoid paying us.


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The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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As I said before, the big boys UT and OU don't want to expand with our schools. That shipped sailed last time. Especially with the board of regents OU. If ESPN doesn't pay new schools equitably then other schools will lose money and that's not happening. UT and OU are good till 2025. At that time they have a decision to make and do what they want to. UT will wind up in the ACC and OU will go SEC unless they can get some blueblood to join back up. AAC can at that time add Big 12 holdovers. Headquarters is going to Dallas which is a hint of things to come.

(09-07-2018 07:46 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  My guess is the number is around $5 million each. Not to be rude, but we have a lot of dead weight that doesn't pull ratings. $5 million would put us head and shoulders above the others and around BYU level.

This is no different in other conferences. They are really paying for that top tier of games and the ratings are what they are and we will be paid in some manner that represents those. I mean do you really think anyone is interested in Wake Forest vs BC or Vandy vs kentucky. These don't generate eyeballs either but the conference is still getting paid mega bucks for all of that content. The American would be no different. There is good and bad games hence why you have tiers. The top 25-30 games have value and will determine the bulk of the media payment. I still think 5 is the base and given recent comments from various folks around the league feel like 8ish might be where the league lands. Guess we all shall see.

(09-07-2018 08:58 AM)Pitt Co Pirates Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:11 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 05:49 PM)Pitt Co Pirates Wrote:  That shipped has sailed, wishful thinking. Not the right attitude as well. Our 12 schools are a cohesive group. Big 12 extorted their last money at ESPN buying out the clause to increase for new membership. That was done for the exact reason to not expand. That appeased Big 12 membership. Texas doesn't want it and they have the voting block. OU board of regents don't want it and they shut their chancellor down. Now if you had Nebreska, Colorado, or A&M sure the blueblood schools would consider that. The rest is a pipe dream.

Well the way i look at is espn was willing to pay $12 million not to expand for 3 years in order to save money. But now that negotiations are coming up with the aac they may force the big 12 to expand in order to avoid paying us.


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The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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As I said before, the big boys UT and OU don't want to expand with our schools. That shipped sailed last time. Especially with the board of regents OU. If ESPN doesn't pay new schools equitably then other schools will lose money and that's not happening. UT and OU are good till 2025. At that time they have a decision to make and do what they want to. UT will wind up in the ACC and OU will go SEC unless they can get some blueblood to join back up. AAC can at that time add Big 12 holdovers. Headquarters is going to Dallas which is a hint of things to come.

In that scenario you describe, which I agree with by the way, the AAC won't be adding the leftovers unfortunately.

The legacy Big 12 will likely be in the stronger position to add members, even if they lose 4. Unfortunately, I worry about how ugly that could get with those in the AAC trying to scramble to get out.

(09-07-2018 11:04 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(09-07-2018 08:58 AM)Pitt Co Pirates Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:11 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  Well the way i look at is espn was willing to pay $12 million not to expand for 3 years in order to save money. But now that negotiations are coming up with the aac they may force the big 12 to expand in order to avoid paying us.


Sent from my Necronomicon using DemonTalk

The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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As I said before, the big boys UT and OU don't want to expand with our schools. That shipped sailed last time. Especially with the board of regents OU. If ESPN doesn't pay new schools equitably then other schools will lose money and that's not happening. UT and OU are good till 2025. At that time they have a decision to make and do what they want to. UT will wind up in the ACC and OU will go SEC unless they can get some blueblood to join back up. AAC can at that time add Big 12 holdovers. Headquarters is going to Dallas which is a hint of things to come.

In that scenario you describe, which I agree with by the way, the AAC won't be adding the leftovers unfortunately.

The legacy Big 12 will likely be in the stronger position to add members, even if they lose 4. Unfortunately, I worry about how ugly that could get with those in the AAC trying to scramble to get out.

Agreed. I think that's when we finally see a true "best of the rest" conference with those 4 Big 12 leftovers, a bunch of AAC schools, and a few MWC schools.

(09-06-2018 10:22 PM)TripleA Wrote:  We're not getting $15M, so you guys could save some time and head out now, lol.

(09-06-2018 10:31 PM)Huskypride Wrote:  15 mil!!! LOL and i think the people saying 10 mil are a crazy!!!

That's kind of what I'm saying - there isn't likely to be some enormous gulf in the conference payouts that handcuffs the university. You're most probably talking payout numbers that are broadly similar in both scenarios.

(09-06-2018 11:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The break even between the Big East and AAC is not as high as you might think. At anything over 3 million per team---its close enough to be a wash. It’s not going to be worth paying 10 million and throwing UConn football underneath the indy bus to hang out with UMass. However, a media deal at 3 million or below---The Big East is an option.

That said, UConn is working with about a 10 million dollar conference distribution that isnt that much different than it was during the Big East days (due to the realignment fund). Thats what UConn ideally wants to break even with. When it comes to matching that payout---the Big East wont really help at all.

The current normal "unjuiced" AAC conference distribution is only about 3-4 million per team. So, we will need about a 6-7 million per team RAISE for UConn to match its current payout. Thats a media deal worth 8-10 million per team. A lot has to go right to hit that range---but I think we will get close. I absolutely think we will get a raise big enough that the Big East wont be financially attractive.

There's no financially "attractive" scenario short of a conference invite that isn't coming. With the money more or less similar-ish it's just about where UConn wants to be.

For the record, I think the school sticks it out in the AAC at least until the Big 12 situation is settled. Just making the point that one conference paying out $9 million annually versus getting $7.5 million annually in another scenario isn't some massive difference when you have an $80 million budget. Any "once our new contract comes in UConn can't leave" argument requires a very healthy media rights deal to be true.

(09-07-2018 11:04 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(09-07-2018 08:58 AM)Pitt Co Pirates Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:32 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:19 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:11 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  Well the way i look at is espn was willing to pay $12 million not to expand for 3 years in order to save money. But now that negotiations are coming up with the aac they may force the big 12 to expand in order to avoid paying us.


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The gulf between the Big 12 payout and the AAC payout is such that it would be more expensive for ESPN to do it that way (plus they'd also have to coordinate with Fox) unless you're REALLY optimistic on where the TV contract negotiations are going.

Im really pessimistic. The way i see it is espn will give us the raise and then put alot of our bottom tier teams on espn+. Ya we get the $8million but we only can watch the games if we pay extra. And im betting espn knows its the best deal we are going to get.

Also if you’re really pessimistic you could see the $8 million a year as a payoff ensuring we shut up. Essentially we will never fight for them to force the playoffs to expand and allow us access along with not being forced to give us a great bowl tie in. Ya we get the money but at the end of the day its still peanuts and it means nothing in the long run because we will still not be P5.


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As I said before, the big boys UT and OU don't want to expand with our schools. That shipped sailed last time. Especially with the board of regents OU. If ESPN doesn't pay new schools equitably then other schools will lose money and that's not happening. UT and OU are good till 2025. At that time they have a decision to make and do what they want to. UT will wind up in the ACC and OU will go SEC unless they can get some blueblood to join back up. AAC can at that time add Big 12 holdovers. Headquarters is going to Dallas which is a hint of things to come.

In that scenario you describe, which I agree with by the way, the AAC won't be adding the leftovers unfortunately.

The legacy Big 12 will likely be in the stronger position to add members, even if they lose 4. Unfortunately, I worry about how ugly that could get with those in the AAC trying to scramble to get out.

That's why this TV negotiation is so important. If our group continues their trajectory distancing ourselves from the G5 and paid what we're worth then our group of 12 will be more valuable than the remnant Big 12. Without Texas and OU no much to that conference in terms of football compared to the AAC.