Yep...strange path this one.

It is going to pound a wide swath of SC and NC coastline. Guys, I hope all of you stay out of harm's way. As a South Floridian with a 27-year tenure, I have survived several direct hits from major hurricanes and I know how bad things can get.

(09-12-2018 07:58 PM)goliath74 Wrote:  It is going to pound a wide swath of SC and NC coastline. Guys, I hope all of you stay out of harm's way. As a South Floridian with a 27-year tenure, I have survived several direct hits from major hurricanes and I know how bad things can get.

Hurricanes suck. Prayers and stay safe.

(09-06-2018 12:52 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Capital Weather Gang, which is the Washington Post's weather blog, has an interesting story about Florence.

This is what I meant earlier about the storm being in an odd place to threaten the East Coast. This is a map of all the tropical cyclones to come within 200 nautical miles of where Florence's center of circulation is now:



Not one storm in the historical record has hit the U.S. from that spot. Closest was a couple of dying storms threatening the Canadian Maritimes.

And to speak to the variability of long-term models: Yesterday, a run of the GFS model, one of the major ones used in forecasting, had a hurricane with a sub-930 mb central pressure sitting off the Virginia Beach coast. That's not even physically possible — the waters aren't warm enough to maintain a Category 5 hurricane, and no storm that strong has ever gotten that far north, or even close.

That said, the models are more bullish about a potential hit or close call on the East Coast in about a week, so be mindful and think about hurricane supplies and evacuation routes.

Well, it looks like we can throw all the other models away now.

(09-14-2018 11:10 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:52 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Capital Weather Gang, which is the Washington Post's weather blog, has an interesting story about Florence.

This is what I meant earlier about the storm being in an odd place to threaten the East Coast. This is a map of all the tropical cyclones to come within 200 nautical miles of where Florence's center of circulation is now:



Not one storm in the historical record has hit the U.S. from that spot. Closest was a couple of dying storms threatening the Canadian Maritimes.

And to speak to the variability of long-term models: Yesterday, a run of the GFS model, one of the major ones used in forecasting, had a hurricane with a sub-930 mb central pressure sitting off the Virginia Beach coast. That's not even physically possible — the waters aren't warm enough to maintain a Category 5 hurricane, and no storm that strong has ever gotten that far north, or even close.

That said, the models are more bullish about a potential hit or close call on the East Coast in about a week, so be mindful and think about hurricane supplies and evacuation routes.

Well, it looks like we can throw all the other models away now.

These aren't models. these are actual paths.

(09-14-2018 11:10 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:52 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Capital Weather Gang, which is the Washington Post's weather blog, has an interesting story about Florence.

This is what I meant earlier about the storm being in an odd place to threaten the East Coast. This is a map of all the tropical cyclones to come within 200 nautical miles of where Florence's center of circulation is now:



Not one storm in the historical record has hit the U.S. from that spot. Closest was a couple of dying storms threatening the Canadian Maritimes.

And to speak to the variability of long-term models: Yesterday, a run of the GFS model, one of the major ones used in forecasting, had a hurricane with a sub-930 mb central pressure sitting off the Virginia Beach coast. That's not even physically possible — the waters aren't warm enough to maintain a Category 5 hurricane, and no storm that strong has ever gotten that far north, or even close.

That said, the models are more bullish about a potential hit or close call on the East Coast in about a week, so be mindful and think about hurricane supplies and evacuation routes.

Well, it looks like we can throw all the other models away now.

That's what happens when you use 100 years of data for a weather phenomenon that has been occurring for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. The record is going to be more incomplete, and as Ian Malcolm says "life finds a way". Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex the system, the more likely that any event that can happen, will happen. This Hurricane is a good example of that.

For all anyone knows a hurricane could've taken this path in the past 150 years, but to humans, that time scale is irrelevant. However in the geospatial time scale, it's a particle of sand in the bucket that you don't even know is there. Weather reporters and climatologists seem to enjoy using human time scales to analyze their science when in reality, it's far more likely that they will have misleading results.

Well said, ericsaid.

...

Just had an Austin Powers moment...

(09-14-2018 12:18 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 11:10 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:52 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Capital Weather Gang, which is the Washington Post's weather blog, has an interesting story about Florence.

This is what I meant earlier about the storm being in an odd place to threaten the East Coast. This is a map of all the tropical cyclones to come within 200 nautical miles of where Florence's center of circulation is now:



Not one storm in the historical record has hit the U.S. from that spot. Closest was a couple of dying storms threatening the Canadian Maritimes.

And to speak to the variability of long-term models: Yesterday, a run of the GFS model, one of the major ones used in forecasting, had a hurricane with a sub-930 mb central pressure sitting off the Virginia Beach coast. That's not even physically possible — the waters aren't warm enough to maintain a Category 5 hurricane, and no storm that strong has ever gotten that far north, or even close.

That said, the models are more bullish about a potential hit or close call on the East Coast in about a week, so be mindful and think about hurricane supplies and evacuation routes.

Well, it looks like we can throw all the other models away now.

That's what happens when you use 100 years of data for a weather phenomenon that has been occurring for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. The record is going to be more incomplete, and as Ian Malcolm says "life finds a way". Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex the system, the more likely that any event that can happen, will happen. This Hurricane is a good example of that.

For all anyone knows a hurricane could've taken this path in the past 150 years, but to humans, that time scale is irrelevant. However in the geospatial time scale, it's a particle of sand in the bucket that you don't even know is there. Weather reporters and climatologists seem to enjoy using human time scales to analyze their science when in reality, it's far more likely that they will have misleading results.

But the only thing they were trying to do here is show the rarity of a hurricane taking the path that Florence did based on the information they have available. You'll never see a reputable meteorologist say something like "this is the first time in Earth's history this is taking place;" they'll usually preface it by referring to the historical record, which is going to be 100-150 years old and also have gaps since satellite technology wasn't even the fever dream of a madman in the 1800s. And it's true, this storm was absolutely an anomaly for hurricanes in that spot in the Atlantic at the time that story was written.

For what it's worth, I thought the National Hurricane Center did a pretty great job of forecasting the storm's evolution and properly warning the relevant agencies about it. They saw the distinct possibility of that oddball path develop because of the unusually strong high pressure to the north, and as the chances of something that would allow the traditional recurve into the North Atlantic diminished, their public-facing products reflected that. They were way more aggressive about predicting rapid intensification even after Florence quickly weakened from a Cat 4 to a tropical storm in the Central Atlantic, and it bore out in dramatic fashion. They acknowledged outlier models (like the GFS and its insistence that the Outer Banks were Florence's destination) while not allowing it to adversely affect the projected path. They had a crawl/stall in the forecast for some time, it was just a matter of when and where.

The only thing they may have dropped the ball on was not picking up on the weakening trend Florence underwent until landfall, but there's a lot of moving parts when it comes to upper-air patterns — had the low in Florida not developed as it did, shear wouldn't have been an issue and Florence would almost certainly have come in stronger than she did.

But still, I'd give them an A, and I think for the most part the government agencies that prepared for the worst did so well. Sure, for places like Norfolk the effects ended up being minimal compared to the expectations, but you'd rather evacuate for nothing than have people get tallywhacked by a storm that their government didn't respect enough.

clt can report that bottled water is available at normal prices in Charlotte.

(09-14-2018 12:56 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 12:18 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 11:10 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:52 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Capital Weather Gang, which is the Washington Post's weather blog, has an interesting story about Florence.

This is what I meant earlier about the storm being in an odd place to threaten the East Coast. This is a map of all the tropical cyclones to come within 200 nautical miles of where Florence's center of circulation is now:



Not one storm in the historical record has hit the U.S. from that spot. Closest was a couple of dying storms threatening the Canadian Maritimes.

And to speak to the variability of long-term models: Yesterday, a run of the GFS model, one of the major ones used in forecasting, had a hurricane with a sub-930 mb central pressure sitting off the Virginia Beach coast. That's not even physically possible — the waters aren't warm enough to maintain a Category 5 hurricane, and no storm that strong has ever gotten that far north, or even close.

That said, the models are more bullish about a potential hit or close call on the East Coast in about a week, so be mindful and think about hurricane supplies and evacuation routes.

Well, it looks like we can throw all the other models away now.

That's what happens when you use 100 years of data for a weather phenomenon that has been occurring for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. The record is going to be more incomplete, and as Ian Malcolm says "life finds a way". Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex the system, the more likely that any event that can happen, will happen. This Hurricane is a good example of that.

For all anyone knows a hurricane could've taken this path in the past 150 years, but to humans, that time scale is irrelevant. However in the geospatial time scale, it's a particle of sand in the bucket that you don't even know is there. Weather reporters and climatologists seem to enjoy using human time scales to analyze their science when in reality, it's far more likely that they will have misleading results.

But the only thing they were trying to do here is show the rarity of a hurricane taking the path that Florence did based on the information they have available. You'll never see a reputable meteorologist say something like "this is the first time in Earth's history this is taking place;" they'll usually preface it by referring to the historical record, which is going to be 100-150 years old and also have gaps since satellite technology wasn't even the fever dream of a madman in the 1800s. And it's true, this storm was absolutely an anomaly for hurricanes in that spot in the Atlantic at the time that story was written.

For what it's worth, I thought the National Hurricane Center did a pretty great job of forecasting the storm's evolution and properly warning the relevant agencies about it. They saw the distinct possibility of that oddball path develop because of the unusually strong high pressure to the north, and as the chances of something that would allow the traditional recurve into the North Atlantic diminished, their public-facing products reflected that. They were way more aggressive about predicting rapid intensification even after Florence quickly weakened from a Cat 4 to a tropical storm in the Central Atlantic, and it bore out in dramatic fashion. They acknowledged outlier models (like the GFS and its insistence that the Outer Banks were Florence's destination) while not allowing it to adversely affect the projected path. They had a crawl/stall in the forecast for some time, it was just a matter of when and where.

The only thing they may have dropped the ball on was not picking up on the weakening trend Florence underwent until landfall, but there's a lot of moving parts when it comes to upper-air patterns — had the low in Florida not developed as it did, shear wouldn't have been an issue and Florence would almost certainly have come in stronger than she did.

But still, I'd give them an A, and I think for the most part the government agencies that prepared for the worst did so well. Sure, for places like Norfolk the effects ended up being minimal compared to the expectations, but you'd rather evacuate for nothing than have people get tallywhacked by a storm that their government didn't respect enough.

To the children who are being indoctrinated that this hurricane is the result of man made Global Warming, they won't be aware of the fact that there are gaps in the data; many adults don't understand the limitations of the science and the incomplete record we are working with. As with Harvey, many people are already blaming this storms track on "climate change". Nevermind the fact that the wind shear from the High over the continental U.S. caused a weakening of the Hurricane to a Category 1, and wind sheer in general is the most consequential element of the strength of a hurricane.

My perception of the science of climatology is that the record is far too bare to make any sort of judgement on what is normal, much less being able to make a judgement on what has changed. Often times factors such as Earth's orbit around the sun and the tilt of the Earth aren't taken into account; mind you there is peer reviewed research showing correlation between glacial periods and interglacial periods with the tilt of the Earth.

Last point, as a Liberal, reliance on the Government should never be anyones first choice. Power companies are run by privately held firms, rescue efforts are often made by self-sustained volunteer departments, and clean up efforts are often completed by private companies. I believe more credit, or lack of credit in situations where preparations aren't great, should be given to private entities who, based on goodwill alone, often help people. As for the Federal Government's role, Trump did a great job of ensuring Executive Branch departments such as FEMA were ready with the resources and positioning needed.

"When I say no Trolls left behind; I mean no Troll's left behind!" - King Poppy

(09-14-2018 12:18 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  That's what happens when you use 100 years of data for a weather phenomenon that has been occurring for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. The record is going to be more incomplete, and as Ian Malcolm says "life finds a way". Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex the system, the more likely that any event that can happen, will happen. This Hurricane is a good example of that.

For all anyone knows a hurricane could've taken this path in the past 150 years, but to humans, that time scale is irrelevant. However in the geospatial time scale, it's a particle of sand in the bucket that you don't even know is there. Weather reporters and climatologists seem to enjoy using human time scales to analyze their science when in reality, it's far more likely that they will have misleading results.

Exactly, most of the silly models out there try to weight what's happened in the past into what's going to happen in the future. And some of them like to put major metro areas into the early scenarios to get everyone excited. More fake news.

Thank goodness we aren't as gullible as all these 'communication majors' think we are.

(09-14-2018 07:02 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 12:18 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  That's what happens when you use 100 years of data for a weather phenomenon that has been occurring for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. The record is going to be more incomplete, and as Ian Malcolm says "life finds a way". Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex the system, the more likely that any event that can happen, will happen. This Hurricane is a good example of that.

For all anyone knows a hurricane could've taken this path in the past 150 years, but to humans, that time scale is irrelevant. However in the geospatial time scale, it's a particle of sand in the bucket that you don't even know is there. Weather reporters and climatologists seem to enjoy using human time scales to analyze their science when in reality, it's far more likely that they will have misleading results.

Exactly, most of the silly models out there try to weight what's happened in the past into what's going to happen in the future. And some of them like to put major metro areas into the early scenarios to get everyone excited. More fake news.

Thank goodness we aren't as gullible as all these 'communication majors' think we are.

I agree with you. The media just tries to get everyone excited about these hurricanes. They always say the hurricane is going to hit New Orleans when every projection shows it hitting Mississippi or Alabama. It is ridiculous. The media wishes for multiple casualties.

(09-14-2018 07:08 PM)SouthernMiss3613 Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 07:02 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  [quote='ericsaid' pid='15501361' dateline='1536945532']
Exactly, most of the silly models out there try to weight what's happened in the past into what's going to happen in the future. And some of them like to put major metro areas into the early scenarios to get everyone excited. More fake news.
Thank goodness we aren't as gullible as all these 'communication majors' think we are.

I agree with you. The media just tries to get everyone excited about these hurricanes. They always say the hurricane is going to hit New Orleans when every projection shows it hitting Mississippi or Alabama. It is ridiculous. The media wishes for multiple casualties.

There all just trying to force their liberal agenda down our throats. I worked as the Controller for an Ad Agency for a couple of years and wow, there were like 60 recent communication grads and interns working there and to say they all wanted to 'fix' the world would be an understatement.

These are the people now running the news rooms and social media sites, talk about bleeding heart wack-jobs.....whew. BUYER BE.WARE

(09-14-2018 07:02 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 12:18 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  That's what happens when you use 100 years of data for a weather phenomenon that has been occurring for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. The record is going to be more incomplete, and as Ian Malcolm says "life finds a way". Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex the system, the more likely that any event that can happen, will happen. This Hurricane is a good example of that.

For all anyone knows a hurricane could've taken this path in the past 150 years, but to humans, that time scale is irrelevant. However in the geospatial time scale, it's a particle of sand in the bucket that you don't even know is there. Weather reporters and climatologists seem to enjoy using human time scales to analyze their science when in reality, it's far more likely that they will have misleading results.

Exactly, most of the silly models out there try to weight what's happened in the past into what's going to happen in the future. And some of them like to put major metro areas into the early scenarios to get everyone excited. More fake news.

Thank goodness we aren't as gullible as all these 'communication majors' think we are.

Yes we are. Just watch the news. People are dumb as **** and love sensational news.

I saw empty shelves ans lines for gasoline behindnpeople that had truckbeds full of gas cans. Dumb.

(09-14-2018 08:07 PM)Niner National Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 07:02 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-14-2018 12:18 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  That's what happens when you use 100 years of data for a weather phenomenon that has been occurring for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. The record is going to be more incomplete, and as Ian Malcolm says "life finds a way". Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex the system, the more likely that any event that can happen, will happen. This Hurricane is a good example of that.

For all anyone knows a hurricane could've taken this path in the past 150 years, but to humans, that time scale is irrelevant. However in the geospatial time scale, it's a particle of sand in the bucket that you don't even know is there. Weather reporters and climatologists seem to enjoy using human time scales to analyze their science when in reality, it's far more likely that they will have misleading results.

Exactly, most of the silly models out there try to weight what's happened in the past into what's going to happen in the future. And some of them like to put major metro areas into the early scenarios to get everyone excited. More fake news.

Thank goodness we aren't as gullible as all these 'communication majors' think we are.

Yes we are. Just watch the news. People are dumb as **** and love sensational news.

I saw empty shelves ans lines for gasoline behindnpeople that had truckbeds full of gas cans. Dumb.

Yep, I posted somewhere else that my folks in eastern NC just stopped watching the Weather Channel. The doom and gloom just got to be too much. They focused on the Nat Hurricane Center more for the path, etc...

Not a damn thing happened here. Everyone should be pretty healthy drinking water though. I just hate all the chef boyardee and potted meat I don't wanna eat

Sent from my SM-N950U using CSNbbs mobile app

clt says the Charlotte storm water system is holding up well so far. Lakes were drained down before the storm hit.