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What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
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Fthechips Offline
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Post: #221
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
Bold prediction. WMU, Toledo, and Buffalo to the American conference.
10-08-2018 10:48 PM
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ArQ Offline
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Post: #222
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-08-2018 09:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My bold prediction is that the SEC adds 6 schools from the Big 12/ACC, realizing that if they control all the major brands in the greater southeast they drive up their own value even higher and deflate the value of two rivals.

The Big 10 follows with a similar scheme only to do it poorly.

SEC should pick these six schools: UNC, NC State, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma.

Then B1G will add Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Kansas and Georgia Tech.

The leftovers of ACC and Big12 will form the new conference ACC12.

ACC12 North:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Miami

ACC12 South:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
10-09-2018 05:50 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #223
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-09-2018 05:50 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-08-2018 09:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My bold prediction is that the SEC adds 6 schools from the Big 12/ACC, realizing that if they control all the major brands in the greater southeast they drive up their own value even higher and deflate the value of two rivals.

The Big 10 follows with a similar scheme only to do it poorly.

SEC should pick these six schools: UNC, NC State, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma.

Then B1G will add Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Kansas and Georgia Tech.

The leftovers of ACC and Big12 will form the new conference ACC12.

ACC12 North:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Miami

ACC12 South:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

Several of those teams are totally unrealistic to their new conferences...especially in regards to the SEC/B1G. Have you been paying attention?
10-09-2018 06:19 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #224
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-09-2018 05:50 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-08-2018 09:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My bold prediction is that the SEC adds 6 schools from the Big 12/ACC, realizing that if they control all the major brands in the greater southeast they drive up their own value even higher and deflate the value of two rivals.

The Big 10 follows with a similar scheme only to do it poorly.

SEC should pick these six schools: UNC, NC State, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma.

Then B1G will add Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Kansas and Georgia Tech.

The leftovers of ACC and Big12 will form the new conference ACC12.

ACC12 North:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Miami

ACC12 South:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

Wouldn't "east" and 'west" be more appropriate descriptions for those divisions?
10-09-2018 08:40 PM
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ArQ Offline
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Post: #225
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-09-2018 06:19 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(10-09-2018 05:50 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-08-2018 09:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My bold prediction is that the SEC adds 6 schools from the Big 12/ACC, realizing that if they control all the major brands in the greater southeast they drive up their own value even higher and deflate the value of two rivals.

The Big 10 follows with a similar scheme only to do it poorly.

SEC should pick these six schools: UNC, NC State, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma.

Then B1G will add Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Kansas and Georgia Tech.

The leftovers of ACC and Big12 will form the new conference ACC12.

ACC12 North:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Miami

ACC12 South:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

Several of those teams are totally unrealistic to their new conferences...especially in regards to the SEC/B1G. Have you been paying attention?

The thesis is based on:

1. P5 is consolidated to P4 with two majors (SEC and B1G) and two minors (PAC12 and ACC12).

2. SEC has absolute power to make the first picks. They always show interest on UNC, NC State, Clemson, Oklahoma and Texas. Many of SEC wants Florida State, too, but Florida is blocking it. With many states go to two, Florida will unblock it.

3. B1G has the second pick. They can't be football centric as SEC, so they have to consider all three criteria: football, basketball and academics. They always want UNC, Duke, Virginia and Georgia Tech. With UNC gone, they will get the latter three though. The remaining three picks will be Virginia Tech and Louisville for football and Kansas for basketball.
10-09-2018 08:41 PM
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ArQ Offline
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Post: #226
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-09-2018 08:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(10-09-2018 05:50 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-08-2018 09:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My bold prediction is that the SEC adds 6 schools from the Big 12/ACC, realizing that if they control all the major brands in the greater southeast they drive up their own value even higher and deflate the value of two rivals.

The Big 10 follows with a similar scheme only to do it poorly.

SEC should pick these six schools: UNC, NC State, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma.

Then B1G will add Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Kansas and Georgia Tech.

The leftovers of ACC and Big12 will form the new conference ACC12.

ACC12 North:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Miami

ACC12 South:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

Wouldn't "east" and 'west" be more appropriate descriptions for those divisions?

Both could work. Miami always consider themselves as a Northeastern school in many configurations.
10-09-2018 08:53 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #227
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
Here is the thought process behind an SEC 20:

What would the value of the Big 12 be without Texas and Oklahoma? 20% of its current value? That means that If you added them to the SEC you'd add 80% of the value of the Big 12 contract with those two schools. Texas Tech and Oklahoma St are acceptable costs for adding that significant of a bump and you could force them to take less than a full share for a decade and they'd have little choice but to accept.

The LHN is converted to SECN2 now that they have even more 3rd tier and Olympic sports content under their umbrella.

To go to 20 you need 2 more. Let the ACC schools fight and claw for the right to be the 2 schools to get the golden ticket out. Kansas and WVU are the cheap to attain fall backs but I imagine at least 2 of the ACC heavy hitters would have an interest.

Conversely, if you ignored the Big 12 I venture to say the 6 most valuable ACC programs represent 70% of the ACC contract.

Calculating value added isn't simply looking at how much that school is currently being paid by its media partners. It's about how much value that school's current conference will depreciate in value as a result of their loss and calculating that for every dollar that the 3 and 4 letter networks no longer have to pay the old conference is at least a dollar more they need to pay you now that you control an even greater share of the desired content. Case in point: look how much value the Big East lost each time they lost one of their higher value schools and had to replace them with a less desirable replacement.
10-09-2018 09:04 PM
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ArQ Offline
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Post: #228
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-09-2018 09:04 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here is the thought process behind an SEC 20:

What would the value of the Big 12 be without Texas and Oklahoma? 20% of its current value? That means that If you added them to the SEC you'd add 80% of the value of the Big 12 contract with those two schools. Texas Tech and Oklahoma St are acceptable costs for adding that significant of a bump and you could force them to take less than a full share for a decade and they'd have little choice but to accept.

The LHN is converted to SECN2 now that they have even more 3rd tier and Olympic sports content under their umbrella.

To go to 20 you need 2 more. Let the ACC schools fight and claw for the right to be the 2 schools to get the golden ticket out. Kansas and WVU are the cheap to attain fall backs but I imagine at least 2 of the ACC heavy hitters would have an interest.

Conversely, if you ignored the Big 12 I venture to say the 6 most valuable ACC programs represent 70% of the ACC contract.

Calculating value added isn't simply looking at how much that school is currently being paid by its media partners. It's about how much value that school's current conference will depreciate in value as a result of their loss and calculating that for every dollar that the 3 and 4 letter networks no longer have to pay the old conference is at least a dollar more they need to pay you now that you control an even greater share of the desired content. Case in point: look how much value the Big East lost each time they lost one of their higher value schools and had to replace them with a less desirable replacement.

I think if SEC has to choose one twin pack between UNC/NC State and Texas/Texas Tech, they will choose the former. The reasons are

1. SEC has wanted UNC for a long time and NC State is not bad by itself.

2. SEC already has Texas A&M which has better football program in the current state. SEC don't see long horn network's future value.

3. SEC only wants the best of the best for their expansion. Texas Tech just doesn't cut it.
10-09-2018 09:40 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #229
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-09-2018 08:41 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-09-2018 06:19 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(10-09-2018 05:50 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-08-2018 09:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My bold prediction is that the SEC adds 6 schools from the Big 12/ACC, realizing that if they control all the major brands in the greater southeast they drive up their own value even higher and deflate the value of two rivals.

The Big 10 follows with a similar scheme only to do it poorly.

SEC should pick these six schools: UNC, NC State, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma.

Then B1G will add Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Kansas and Georgia Tech.

The leftovers of ACC and Big12 will form the new conference ACC12.

ACC12 North:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Miami

ACC12 South:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

Several of those teams are totally unrealistic to their new conferences...especially in regards to the SEC/B1G. Have you been paying attention?

The thesis is based on:

1. P5 is consolidated to P4 with two majors (SEC and B1G) and two minors (PAC12 and ACC12).

2. SEC has absolute power to make the first picks. They always show interest on UNC, NC State, Clemson, Oklahoma and Texas. Many of SEC wants Florida State, too, but Florida is blocking it. With many states go to two, Florida will unblock it.

3. B1G has the second pick. They can't be football centric as SEC, so they have to consider all three criteria: football, basketball and academics. They always want UNC, Duke, Virginia and Georgia Tech. With UNC gone, they will get the latter three though. The remaining three picks will be Virginia Tech and Louisville for football and Kansas for basketball.

Well there is no nice draft priority among conferences in realignment and schools considered sign NDA's so it is hard to go shopping. It is messy and has twists and turns. Also, academics still has a play and some of your picks make no sense in that vein.
10-09-2018 09:57 PM
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panite Offline
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Post: #230
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
UMASS gives up on independent football and rejoins the MAC for all sports along with JMU to balance the MAC at 14 schools. ESPN kicks in with enough TV revenue to make all happy with the move as the MAC returns to the NE, Virginia, and the Mid-Atlantic / DC region for surviving cable TV and ESPN3 streaming fees. 04-jawdrop 02-13-banana 02-13-banana COGS COGS 05-stirthepot 05-stirthepot 05-stirthepot 04-cheers
10-10-2018 02:28 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #231
RE: What’s your BOLD prediction next realignment round?
(10-09-2018 08:41 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-09-2018 06:19 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(10-09-2018 05:50 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(10-08-2018 09:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My bold prediction is that the SEC adds 6 schools from the Big 12/ACC, realizing that if they control all the major brands in the greater southeast they drive up their own value even higher and deflate the value of two rivals.

The Big 10 follows with a similar scheme only to do it poorly.

SEC should pick these six schools: UNC, NC State, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma.

Then B1G will add Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Kansas and Georgia Tech.

The leftovers of ACC and Big12 will form the new conference ACC12.

ACC12 North:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Miami

ACC12 South:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

Several of those teams are totally unrealistic to their new conferences...especially in regards to the SEC/B1G. Have you been paying attention?

The thesis is based on:

1. P5 is consolidated to P4 with two majors (SEC and B1G) and two minors (PAC12 and ACC12).

2. SEC has absolute power to make the first picks. They always show interest on UNC, NC State, Clemson, Oklahoma and Texas. Many of SEC wants Florida State, too, but Florida is blocking it. With many states go to two, Florida will unblock it.

3. B1G has the second pick. They can't be football centric as SEC, so they have to consider all three criteria: football, basketball and academics. They always want UNC, Duke, Virginia and Georgia Tech. With UNC gone, they will get the latter three though. The remaining three picks will be Virginia Tech and Louisville for football and Kansas for basketball.

Have you ever stopped to think who actually benefits the most by having Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Kentucky split between two conferences?
When you can approach a national or regional advertiser and sell a football or basketball advertising package and get paid twice, because you are selling to two markets.
Rather than talking about consolidation in a state perhaps you should start thinking along the lines of: NC State and Virginia Tech to the SEC and Vanderbilt and Auburn to the ACC.
Of course Auburn to the ACC and NC State to the SEC is not realistic. Neither conference will cede incursion into one of their core areas.
So what will happen is this:
After repeated badgering from the league about the condition of their football stadium and the lack of a true athletic department, which fall far short of "SEC Standards", Vanderbilt will petition the ACC for membership in 4-5 years. The SEC will counter by inviting West Virginia when the Big 12 GOR expires to lay claim to their share of Western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio.
This is what will start the next round.
With the Big 12 in an uncertain future (no TV contract, no network) ESPN agrees to continue to pay Tejas after they join the SEC with Texas Tech (which the SEC will also agree to).
The B1G will grab Missouri from the SEC (the SEC will choose to stay at 15) along with Iowa State.
The Oklahoma and Kansas schools head to the PAC and Baylor and TCU move to the American.
The 15 team ACC welcomes Notre Dame when the Irish are forced to join because of the new champions only format of the P4.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2018 07:17 AM by XLance.)
10-10-2018 04:44 AM
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