(09-12-2018 04:38 PM)arkstfan Wrote: If there is a commissioner, or university president/chancellor, or athletic director at a CUSA or Sun Belt school who has the magnetic personality and skills of persuasion to convince the 24 Sun Belt /CUSA football schools (or 26 hoops schools) to realign in a purely geographic manner I would love to be introduced to them.
Now you want to tell me that ODU and MTSU might get disgruntled and try to convince App and another seven to nine schools to join them in going rogue and starting something new? I'll listen.
Want to tell me that USM is tired of how they are aligned and will start calling their peers in the region about a defection? I'll listen to that as well.
There is essentially no precedent for nice, neat, and orderly.
Big 10 birthed anew, MAC as well but with only one charter left. ACC and SEC were the result of members of the Southern Conference getting frustrated and choosing to do their own thing. Big 12 was born out of the Big 8 needing the prime properties of the SWC in order to survive. The Pac-12 emerged out of the preceding conference being in turmoil. The MWC was birthed out of frustration over WAC16. Conference USA born out of the inability of Great Midwest and Metro to meet the new need to have a football conference and resulted in not everyone getting invited to come along. AAC was birthed out of the collapse of the Big East and the Big East football league rose out of the need to have a football league and the Great Metro failing to launch. Sun Belt football was born out of the inability of the Big West to fill its ranks with western schools and the desire of the Sun Belt football members to have a league.
Seriously if MTSU, ODU, WKU, Marshall sat down and said we want a 12 team conference they might well end up producing something that looks like the monthly SBC/CUSA merger posts but it is just as likely that it varies in spots.
Let's start with the above as the premise: ODU and MTSU want to pull an MWC and breakaway from CUSA to start a new. They seem to be the most vocal so that would make sense. Assuming auto bids and CFP payouts were not an issue, who would they invite with them?
MTSU would certainly want WKU and Marshall, while I believe ODU would push for Charlotte and JMU. App St would seem like a logical pick that both camps would support so they would be 7. App would likely push hard for Ga Southern while Ga State just makes too much sense not to include. FAU would be logical #10 as I just dont see this conference not having a presence in Florida.
I'm not sure if they would want 12 or not but if they did I would add Liberty and FIU. This way everyone would have a travel partner.
Marshall-Liberty
ODU-JMU
MTSU-WKU
Charlotte-App
Ga St-Ga Southern
FAU-FIU
UAB would likely want to be apart of this as would Coastal Carolina but since we are starting from scratch, I just dont see either of them having the support necessary to get in, nor would there be a desire to 14 to make room for them.
After this action, CUSA would be down to the 7 CUSA west schools: UTEP, Rice, UTSA, N Texas, La Tech, USM, UAB. The Sunbelt would also be at 7: Texas St, ULL, ULM, Ark St, Troy, USA, Coastal. CUSA west with their Texas core would likely have the advantage and thus could swipe Texas St very easily to get back to 8. ULL and Arkansas St would make a great #9 and #10 and would likely take the CUSA offer versus trying to rebuild the Sunbelt again.
CUSA would be the 5 Texas schools - Rice, N Texas, UTSA, Texas St, and UTEP plus the 5 non Texas schools - LA Tech, ULL, Ark St, USM, and UAB.
The Sunbelt would be in a very tough spot. They would have to give NMSU an all sports invite to get back to 5. They would then have to find 3 schools willing and able to upgrade. EKU was a finalist last time so they might be interested at #6 and Lamar is always discussed so they may be a good #7. Not sure who would be a good #8 and #9 though. Perhaps by the time this happens some of these up and coming FCS publics like Kennesaw and North Alabama may ready. A decent geographic conference could be formed, with NMSU as the outlier of course, but it is doable.