(02-08-2019 05:01 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 04:57 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 04:43 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  Toughest Schedules left (Avg Rank of remaining opponent)

1. UCF (4)
1. SMU (4)
3. Cincy (4.625)
4. UCONN (5.125)
5. USF (5.875)
6. Houston (6)
7. Tulane (6.667)
8. Memphis (6.875)
9. ECU (7.25)
10. Temple (7.25)
11. Tulsa (8.125)
12. WSU (8.25)

Remaining projected losses per T-Rank. This accounts for home & away games, and of course the strength of the team at issue.

Houston 2
Cincy 3
Temple 3
Memphis 3
Wichita St 3
Tulsa 3
UCF 4
USF 4
UConn 4
SMU 5
ECU 6
Tulane 7

So using that data we come up with

1. Houston 15-3
2. Cincy 14-4
3. Temple 12-6
4. UCF 11-7
5. USF 10-8
5. Memphis 10-8
7. WSU 9-9
8. UCONN 8-10
8. Tulsa 8-10
10. SMU 7-11
11. ECU 4-14
12. Tulane 2-16

Look reasonable to me.

Which, using tiebreakers (USF over Memphis head to head, Tulsa over UConn head to head) would make the tourney:

USF vs. Tulane
Memphis vs. ECU
WSU vs. SMU
Tulsa vs. UConn

If the higher seeds, win, that sets up a day two of:

Houston vs. Tulsa
Cincy vs. WSU
Temple vs. Memphis
UCF vs. USF

USFFan

One game left.

Current ranges of possible finishes (not seeds but finishes)
Houston - 1
Cincy - 1, 2
UCF - 2, 3
Temple - 3, 4
Memphis - 5
WSU - 5, 6
USF - 6, 7
Tulsa - 6, 7
UCONN - 9, 10
SMU - 9, 10
ECU - 11
Tulane - 12

AAC Men's Basketball Preseason Coaches Poll

1. UCF
2. Cincinnati
3. Houston
4. Memphis
5. UConn
6. Temple
7. SMU
8. Wichita State
9. Tulsa
10. Tulane
11. ECU
12. USF

Possible Variances from Pre-season

Houston +2
Cincy +1,0
UCF -1,-2
Temple +3,+2
Memphis -1
WSU +3, +2
USF +6, +5
Tulsa +3, +2
UCONN -4,-5
SMU -2,-3
ECU 0
Tulane -2

(03-08-2019 09:49 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  One game left.

Current ranges of possible finishes (not seeds but finishes)
Houston - 1
Cincy - 1, 2
UCF - 2, 3
Temple - 3, 4
Memphis - 5
WSU - 5, 6
USF - 6, 7
Tulsa - 6, 7
UCONN - 9, 10
SMU - 9, 10
ECU - 11
Tulane - 12

AAC Men's Basketball Preseason Coaches Poll

1. UCF
2. Cincinnati
3. Houston
4. Memphis
5. UConn
6. Temple
7. SMU
8. Wichita State
9. Tulsa
10. Tulane
11. ECU
12. USF

Possible Variances from Pre-season

Houston +2
Cincy +1,0
UCF -1,-2
Temple +3,+2
Memphis -1
WSU +3, +2
USF +6, +5
Tulsa +3, +2
UCONN -4,-5
SMU -2,-3
ECU 0
Tulane -2

Possible Variances from Pre-Season Under Mean and Median

Mean
1. Cincy (0, -1)
2. UCF (0, -1)
3. Houston (+2)
4. UConn (-5, -6)
5. SMU (-4, -5)
6. Memphis (+1)
7. Temple (+4, +3)
8. WSU (+3, +2)
9 . Tulsa (+3, +2)
10. Tulane (-2)
11. ECU (0)
12. USF (+6, +5)

Median
1. UCF (Median is 2.0 so use 2) (0 , -1)
2. Cincy (Median is 2.0 so use 2)(+1, 0)
3. Houston (+2)
4. Temple (+1, 0)
5. SMU (Median is 6.0 so use 6) (-3, -4)
6. UConn (Median is 6.0 so use 6) (-3, -4)
7. WSU (Median is 6.0 so use 6) (+1, 0)
8. Memphis (+3)
9. Tulsa (+3, +2)
10. Tulane (-2)
11. ECU (0)
12. USF (+6, +5)

USF gets the prize for the team exceeding pundit predictions.