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Article: Big Ten Needs to Contract
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green Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Article: Big Ten Needs to Contract
(09-21-2018 10:42 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  I think everyone contracting sounds like a great idea!

MAKE IT HAPPEN.

it ain't happening ...

MAKE BELIEVE
09-21-2018 11:42 AM
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Hokie Mark Online
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Post: #22
RE: Article: Big Ten Needs to Contract
(09-21-2018 10:42 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  I think everyone contracting sounds like a great idea!

MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Terry would like every conference to contract to just 1 member...
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09-21-2018 02:01 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Article: Big Ten Needs to Contract
(09-20-2018 01:34 PM)nole Wrote:  The more the conferences expand and as the business model changes (which were based on geography) to more towards fan bases, the more contracting makes sense.

The conferences that with lower payouts and more mouths to feed will be most in danger as the business model changes.

As the article notes, what does Rutgers do for you going forward? Little. B1G has the highest payout, so Rutgers is not in danger, but conferences with low payouts are more likely to see radical change.

The issue here Nole is that most agree that future pay models will be driven by content. The more brands play other brands within conferences the higher that content value goes. The blogger of the OP talked about that when he spoke of an 11 school 10 conference games each Round Robin for the Big 10.

FOX drove the rates up against ESPN for the Big 10 a couple of years ago because they had no product they could call their own. ESPN had 100% of the ACC, 50% of the Big 12's T1 & T2 with UT & KU's T3, 50% lease of the PAC, and all of the SEC's T2 an T3 rights. FOX didn't want to get outbid on the Big 10 so they jacked the value of the T1 and T2 rights for the Big 10 and had previously purchased 51% of their T3 rights.

Last year the total value of the BTN dropped by 70 million. That 51% of those T3 is not proving to be a great investment for FOX. I submit that they overpaid for the T1 and T2 as well, especially in light of the changing pay models for college football.

As much as I hate him Finebaum helps sell the SECN because it is essentially a syndicated sports radio show converted to TV with its own unique audience which has little to do with SEC alumni.

Where I think you a mis-assessing the situation is that under a new content driven pay model the conferences with the most brand on brand or at least contender vs contender action will be paid the best.

In the Big 10 what you have is a brand concentration at the top, but with very few contenders in the middle. It isn't unfair to say that most years Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers simply won't draw any interest at all outside of a % of their alumni. That's half of their conference.

So how much are networks going to be willing to pay for Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa (which is still a contender most years), Wisconsin and what has been a very tepid Nebraska? As far as strength goes that's roughly 1 division of fairly solid product in which present scheduling and divisional alignment does not permit them all to play each other.

When the SEC sells their T1 package again in 2023 it will be offering the best product purchase that any network can land and the 20 year old deal is so out of date that the amount if converted to today's pricing will likely at the least net the SEC another 7 million per team and some have estimated 10 million.

What people need to think in terms of moving forward is "Content" for T1 and T2, and markets for T3 rights. If the ACC had larger alumni bases your T2 and T3 would be worth more than the Big 10's. Because of the size of their alumni bases at their good football programs the Big 10's T1 would probably still be worth more than the ACC's.

The reason I point this out is because right now the ACC performs better at the lower 1/3rd of the conference than does the Big 10. And with a continued rise of just a program or two you might perform better at the middle third of the conference. So your T3 rights could well be better than those of the Big 10 if you keep emphasizing competitiveness at Wake, Duke, B.C., etc. This bodes well for the future of the ACCN.

Your T2 which is your ESPNU and ESPN2 type games will be more plentiful when schools like Georgia Tech pull it back together. Think of these games as being those who have large market demographics that are under utilized due to lack of competitiveness. So in the ACC that would Pitt, Miami, and Georgia Tech. Get those three consistently competitive and your T2 goes up when coupled to the annually strong teams (F.S.U., Clemson and hopefully Va Tech)

Now to tie this up. 1. I think the Big 10 is overvalued for T2 and T3 and that's where the crap will hit the proverbial fan for them. They were due to release this past year's (the current) valuation for the BTN in April. It's almost October and those numbers haven't been released. Why? I think they are doing damage control. Their T2 and T1 is split between FOX and ESPN. Has that helped the ratings of FS1 and FS2 and FOX vs ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2? Not much for FOX and FS1 and perhaps none on FS2.

It's time to quit comparing everything to the Big 10. Their model was massively predicated on cable carriage fees. Their product is the poorest to try to transition to content based models. The PAC is an interesting case because they lack T1 quality, but they are fairly competitive through the middle. They just don't have a network to push them in the normal T2 time slots nor do they have the time zones to work with for those games. Their T3 is weak because there is little demand outside of their footprint.

The SEC is best positioned to move to a content driven model. The ACC is better positioned than many might think. But dedication to improvement at the bottom and middle is what will get you there.

The future will necessarily incorporate the need for content for T1 and T2, but it will also require a good enough bottom with large enough markets to sustain conference networks operating at the T3 level. Programming of quality is essential along with good games to make them work. ESPN is best positioned to make the SECN and ACCN work with the programming. Improve your bottom (and you have) and your conference network will function well.

That's more than you can say for the BTN which has crap programming and only a few good games a season. That's more than you can say for the PACN where there is no national interest, virtually no solid programming outside of sporting events, and no network sponsorship. And it's far better than the biggest pressure point on the Big 12 where Texas has money for their T3 but few viewers for the LHN and where the rest, other than Oklahoma, suffer.

This is the ACC's moment to move from 5th to 2nd among P5 conferences. I think by 2021 you will be a solid 3rd. You shouldn't think in terms of measuring yourselves against the Big 10 because you should be thinking about passing them!

And nole the Big 10 may make more TV revenue for the moment than the SEC but their member schools average 15 million less in annual revenue than the SEC. They are catchable, and they are beatable.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2018 05:07 PM by JRsec.)
09-21-2018 04:57 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Article: Big Ten Needs to Contract
(09-21-2018 02:01 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-21-2018 10:42 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  I think everyone contracting sounds like a great idea!

MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Terry would like every conference to contract to just 1 member...
05-stirthepot

Yep, too bad more people don't see it my way....

05-stirthepot

But, actually, eight team conferences and a lot of powerful independents is what I liked best.

In my best Green imitation:

BEST OF BOTH WORLDS
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2018 08:32 AM by TerryD.)
09-22-2018 08:28 AM
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #25
RE: Article: Big Ten Needs to Contract
(09-22-2018 08:28 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(09-21-2018 02:01 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-21-2018 10:42 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  I think everyone contracting sounds like a great idea!

MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Terry would like every conference to contract to just 1 member...
05-stirthepot

Yep, too bad more people don't see it my way....

05-stirthepot

But, actually, eight team conferences and a lot of powerful independents is what I liked best.

In my best Green imitation:

BEST OF BOTH WORLDS

Agreed. If there were more independents, scheduling for independents wouldn’t be difficult. Groups of schools that want to play each other annually should form a conference. I would prefer conferences where everyone plays everyone every year.
09-22-2018 10:08 AM
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