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Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #1
Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
Teams with 1st loss Week 4:
Washington State
Missouri
Louisiana Tech
Oregon
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Boston College
Indiana
Minnesota
Akron
Marshall

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 4:
Florida Atlantic
Illinois
Texas A&M
Army
Wake Forest
Arizona State
Kansas State
Texas Christian
Florida International
Minnesota
Ohio U.
Nevada
Navy
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Charlotte
Kansas
Vanderbilt
(Liberty)
UNLV
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Tennessee
East Carolina
Air Force
Eastern Michigan

Teams with 1st win Week 4:
Old Dominion
Purdue
Southern Methodist
North Carolina
Miami (OH)
Western Kentucky
Central Michigan
UTSA
Iowa State
New Mexico State

Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)

Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
9: No change in number this week. We can have one undefeated in each conference except the Mountain West and Sun Belt along with Notre Dame.

Week 4 Thoughts:
-This was a truly amazing week for the teams who had yet to win a game. A full 10 of 14 previous winless teams won this week (71.43%). I don’t keep track of this number, but at this far in the season (but with that many teams remaining), that seems a very incredible number. Of those that are left, 2 are in power 5 conferences (Nebraska and UCLA). UCLA is probably the team I think is most likely to remain on this list for a full season if anyone does.

-Big Ten West felt like it was decided this week as 1-loss Wisconsin beat previous undefeated Iowa. No one else in the division was looking anywhere near as strong as those two and while a lot can change, I think odds must very, very high for Wisconsin now. It’s a shame the two started vs. each other so early.

-PAC-12 had Stanford come back and beat Oregon which leaves them in a command position with Washington in the PAC-12 North. The Cardinal have a bit more of leeway for a national championship chance though being undefeated.

-1-loss Texas over TCU with undefeated Oklahoma struggling throws Big 12 race open some. Even with a loss, probably good for the conference to have the Longhorns looking at least as possible conference title contenders again (Oklahoma and West Virginia still look like most likely to me though for the moment).

-Last week was bad for the Big Ten. This week was the ACC’s turn to struggle a bit. Having ranked Virginia Tech and Boston College lose hurts some, although Clemson still a monster on top.

-On the race for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl (one of my favorite things to follow honestly), the MAC and Conference USA seem both down to one big competitor unless there is a monster upset somewhere. Buffalo and North Texas remain unbeaten. The Mountain West still has 6 one loss teams and those will be considered strongly if they go through the rest the way unbeaten. The American saw its 3 unbeatens stay that way this week (although Cincinnati and South Florida both had closer games for quite some time) and remains in the strongest position for its champ to take the NY6 bowl if they finish with 0 or 1 loss.

Week 5 Thoughts:
-We have 3 games between undefeated teams this week: Syracuse at Clemson, Ohio State at Penn State, Stanford at Notre Dame.

-Our winless teams play in the following games: Winless UCLA at undefeated Colorado, Purdue at winless Nebraska, winless UTEP at UTSA, Hawaii at winless San Jose State

Thoughts on games with our winless, 1-loss, and undefeated teams:
-Ohio State at Penn State: Winner will be last Big Ten undefeated team and favorite to win conference (although in division, Michigan is looking stronger as season progresses).

-Stanford at Notre Dame: Probably Notre Dame’s most difficult opponent left on the schedule. A loss will make getting PAC-12 in a bit harder.

-1 Loss BYU at 1 loss Washington: This game is a make or break one for both teams for different reasons. Washington almost certainly will not make the playoff bowls if they lose here. On the flip side, BYU most likely needs a 2nd high quality win (and not a 2nd loss) if they want a chance to get an at large to a NY6 bowl.

-Pitt at UCF: Central Florida has to be considered the leader for the NY6 bid right now and this is their last out of conference chance to derail things. Don’t think it will happen, but worth watching.

-Army at undefeated Buffalo: Game would have looked bigger if Army beat Oklahoma last week, but MAC’s NY6 hopes likely ride here.

-Undefeated West Virginia at 1-loss Texas Tech: Great win for Texas Tech last week. Now we get to see who is for real in Big 12 competition between these two.

-1 loss Oregon at undefeated Cal: Two ranked teams. Game will show a lot about both programs.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 4, independents: 1, total: 21
Clemson
North Carolina State
Duke
Colorado
Oklahoma
Cincinnati
South Florida
Syracuse
West Virginia
Ohio State
Penn State
Central Florida
Buffalo
California
Stanford
Georgia
Kentucky
Alabama
Louisiana State
North Texas
Notre Dame

1-Loss Teams:
ACC: 4, American: 2, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 7, Conference USA: 4, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 6, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 5, independents: 1, total: 45
Miami (FL)
Virginia
Memphis
Houston
Baylor
Texas
Texas Tech
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UAB
Southern Mississippi
Toledo
Boise State
Utah State
New Mexico
Hawaii
Fresno State
San Diego State
Washington
Utah
Florida
South Carolina
Auburn
Mississippi
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Troy
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Brigham Young
Oregon
Washington State
Missouri
Louisiana Tech
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Boston College
Indiana
Minnesota
Akron
Marshall

Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 0, American: 0, Big 12: 0,
Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, independents: 0, total: 4

Nebraska
UTEP
San Jose State
UCLA
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2018 07:33 AM by ohio1317.)
09-23-2018 09:49 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
We're still at the point where a lot of those undefeated teams haven't played any quality opponents yet. Cincinnati, UCF, Colorado are some of them.

Looking ahead, if Cincinnati gets to 8-0 (UConn, Tulane, Temple, and SMU) we still probably wouldn't deserve to be ranked based on an objective look at our schedule. If we do, it will be more out of respect for our past accomplishments than the victories over Temple/UCLA.
09-23-2018 10:08 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
(09-23-2018 10:08 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  We're still at the point where a lot of those undefeated teams haven't played any quality opponents yet. Cincinnati, UCF, Colorado are some of them.

Looking ahead, if Cincinnati gets to 8-0 (UConn, Tulane, Temple, and SMU) we still probably wouldn't deserve to be ranked based on an objective look at our schedule. If we do, it will be more out of respect for our past accomplishments than the victories over Temple/UCLA.

That's what the "eyeball test" is all about ... "It looks to me like if they had faced a stronger opponent on that day, they still would have won" vs "It looks to me like if they had faced a stronger opponent on that day, they probably would have lost".

And, actually, that normally runs to a team's advantage when they have brand recognition in their favor, so, yeah, it would pretty much be about "y'know, the Bearcats have done X, Y and Z before" when looking at the other teams down in the 15-25 range of the rankings.
09-23-2018 10:30 PM
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RobtheAggie Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
You forgot New Mexico State getting their first win this past weekend. Great analysis.
09-24-2018 04:26 AM
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ohio1317 Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
Moved their name to the wrong list. Put them on the 2nd loss list instead. It's fixed.
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2018 07:33 AM by ohio1317.)
09-24-2018 07:32 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
(09-23-2018 10:30 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(09-23-2018 10:08 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  We're still at the point where a lot of those undefeated teams haven't played any quality opponents yet. Cincinnati, UCF, Colorado are some of them.

Looking ahead, if Cincinnati gets to 8-0 (UConn, Tulane, Temple, and SMU) we still probably wouldn't deserve to be ranked based on an objective look at our schedule. If we do, it will be more out of respect for our past accomplishments than the victories over Temple/UCLA.

That's what the "eyeball test" is all about ... "It looks to me like if they had faced a stronger opponent on that day, they still would have won" vs "It looks to me like if they had faced a stronger opponent on that day, they probably would have lost".

And, actually, that normally runs to a team's advantage when they have brand recognition in their favor, so, yeah, it would pretty much be about "y'know, the Bearcats have done X, Y and Z before" when looking at the other teams down in the 15-25 range of the rankings.

Good point. But it's hard to do the eyeball test for games you're not watching.

And let's be honest, no one outside Ohio is watching Cincinnati-Ohio unless they have a cat in the fight (pun intended).
09-24-2018 09:21 AM
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ken d Online
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 5)
Last year at this point there were 24 unbeaten teams compared with 21 in 2018.

Last year 8 teams were winless after Week 4: Florida State, Baylor, Nevada, Bowling Green, Charlotte, UTEP (this year, too), Georgia Southern and UMass. Of the four this year, only UTEP makes the list two years in a row.
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2018 08:19 PM by ken d.)
09-24-2018 02:46 PM
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