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Biggest blunders in realignment history
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #381
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
Some conferences did, some didn’t. Under the new system, the Big Ten got 2 out of 3 in Nebraska & Maryland. The ACC did ok with Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Louisville would have been a home run for the ACC, but the basketball scandal will leave them with a tarnish for awhile.
The SEC, IMO, split on its pickups. TAMU was excellent; Mizzou under the new system is a question mark. The PAC 12 did ok, but could have done much better, IMO.

The conferences that will probably take the biggest hits under the new system are probably the AAC & C-USA.
10-18-2018 06:14 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #382
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
I think the ACC won big time. Syracuse and Louisville hoops, the legacy of Pitt and Cuse football, and the fraction of Notre Dame football is practically unmatched. Louisville football was decent for the overall football body, even if not a national program.

The PAC drew the map on what not to do with nixing the Oklahomas and then B1G-PAC. Potential for football growth, and the slightly national draw with the Holy War was put on pause so Utah could stock up on fluff for a few years.
10-18-2018 07:17 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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Post: #383
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(10-18-2018 05:32 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(10-18-2018 11:09 AM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 07:54 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 07:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 07:19 PM)XLance Wrote:  ^
In the next round we will see West Virginia in the SEC.

Well since the ACC did let in Louisville, I think WVU has an outside chance. Especially if it is 15 members with no divisions and a 2-6-6 scheduling model.

Since I see Pitt and VT as the Eers' annual opponents that means only one visit to Morgantown every 4 years for the wine and cheese UNC, Duke, and UVA, how bad can it be?

04-bolt

Cheers,
Neil

Vanderbilt or Cincinnati, Neil.
Even once every 4 years is too great a risk if there are alternatives.
Plus...they burn couches at Kentucky also.

Hail X-Lance,

Nice to see that you more often than not bring up Vandy when I mention WVU to the ACC. We do enjoy ribbing each other about this. 03-lmfao

I could understand Cincinnati as #15. They are probably the next best realistic option after WVU, although a definitive step down. My concern is that I know the next decade will be more content driven than anything else.

Things such as market and recruiting area will have far less meaning than they did in the 00s and this decade. So the first question to ask about any potential expansion target is will the program (in concert with who they play) have at least two games that will generate 4 plus million viewers year in and year out AND have devoted fans that will pay to see their other games on streaming services?

Right now the ACC has only two such programs - Clemson and FSU.

So unless Miami and VT in the next three years develop into their Big East versions of themselves (obviously non-probation years for the Hurricanes in that time frame) the ACC might have a major content driven football problem by the time realignment comes around early to mid next decade.

We are seeing a hint of that potential problem this year (though a single year should not be taken as a trend, especially since it is only halfway through the season) with FSU being down and Miami and VT not doing as well as they did last year and Louisville in a two year slump in comparison to their first three years in the league.

Cheers,
Neil


Wouldn’t UNC, Duke, & Syracuse be in the group with FSU & Clemson also?? Not for football (but all three are trying in that sport), but for basketball.

The rule of thumb is football is basically 80% of the TV contract. So the ACC was helped in basketball by the additions of Louisville, Syracuse, and Notre Dame in that sport but as you hint at the heavy lifting even there has been done by UNC and Duke with a nice assist by Virginia. But as great as ACC basketball is, and it has been a monster so far, it still is only worth basically 20% of the national TV contract. It should definitely help with the ACCN early years.

Clemson football reaching its full potential as a recent King (imho) in addition to the Notre Dame scheduling agreement which has supplemented excellent OOC scheduling has catapulted ACC football into a clear number three spot in terms of football TV ratings. This combined with the love of ACC basketball by its fans I believe contributed to ESPN being bullish on backing the upcoming ACCN.

Unfortunately with a lousy Orange Bowl deal, a long term TV deal below current market value, and having 14.5 mouths to feed the per team conference payout might cause some future unrest within the conference if the ACCN launch is mediocre and fails to close the gap between the ACC and the other Lesser 2 conferences.

It will take both a new Orange Bowl deal and a truly successful ACCN to make the disparity between the Greater 2 and the ACC at least shouting distance apart.

Like most things, time will tell. I remain cautiously optimistic.

Cheers,
Neil
(This post was last modified: 10-19-2018 08:04 AM by OrangeDude.)
10-18-2018 07:43 PM
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adcorbett Offline
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Post: #384
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(10-18-2018 07:43 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  The rule of thumb is football is basically 80% of the TV contract. So the ACC was helped in basketball by the additions of Louisville, Syracuse, and Notre Dame in that sport but as you hint at the heavy lifting even there has been done by UNC and Duke with a nice assist by Virginia. But as great as ACC basketball is, and it has been a monster so far, it still is only worth basically 20% of the national TV contract. It should definitely help with the ACCN early years.


In general conference networks draw more eyeballs for hoops then football, just due to the nature of how the games are scheduled, and how most games on the conference network in football are C and D level games. In basketball there are so many games and so few national TV slots, that A games and B games also end up on the network. Big Ten basketball, more than Big Ten Football, was what helped expand the B10 Network. The SEC is an obvious exception.
10-19-2018 10:12 AM
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OrangeDude Offline
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Post: #385
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(10-19-2018 10:41 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  With lots of new platforms for future television outlets, I believe all conferences will be able to meet or exceed their current TV contracts the next time they negotiate. That's why I really don't expect much movement at all among the conferences.

Certainly possible. But a cautionary note would be the Big East of 2011 which got a great contract offer from ESPN in the restricted negotiated timeframe and the rumor was that once it was on open market in a few months Comcast/Universal was going to pay far much more - rumored to be $15 million to $17 million for each football school and $5 to $6 million for each basketball school.

If true, the football schools monies would have been comparable (really exceeding) the amount that those schools which eventually exited to different conferences received from TV contracts in their new conferences.

Other factors outside of money then (and now) include stability, postseason football participation, geographical fit, national perception, favorable time slots for showcasing conference teams, etc.

By the time the CFP is a decade old, if conferences 'X' and 'Y' have participated in only 5 or 6 each while conferences 'A', 'B', and 'C' have made 9 or 10 and independent ND has made 2, and conferences 'A' and 'B' have had a couple years each where multiple teams from their conference have participated in a given year - it is possible some of the better programs may start wondering if they would be better off in conference 'A' or conference 'B' despite increases in TV contract monies.

Cheers,
Neil
10-19-2018 11:06 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #386
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
Wonder where some of the older conferences have not blundered, and stayed with the D1 schools? As a whole? We could see some of them picked apart.

RMAC
Lone State
KCAC
River States
The 2 west coast D3 conferences. Some of the D3 schools in California are similar to the makeup of the PAC 12 like CalTech.
10-19-2018 11:35 PM
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Poster Offline
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Post: #387
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
Big East rejecting Penn State is obviously #1.


#2 is probably the Big Ten adding Maryland and Rutgers. Especially since that lead to the creation of the ACC GOR that’s now preventing the Big 10 from adding ACC teams that have more value than Maryland. (And that wouldn’t be paired with Rutgers.)
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2022 11:43 AM by Poster.)
07-21-2022 11:42 AM
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Poster Offline
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Post: #388
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(10-17-2018 08:07 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 07:19 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 06:29 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 06:06 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(10-17-2018 07:50 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Another interesting article on the 1990 game of expansion - https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2011/1...onference/

“Miami was interested in improving its basketball program”—-? How do you improve a program that doesn’t exist? Miami didn’t a have basketball team then.

While it's true Miami ended its basketball program in 1971 I believe they restarted it in 1985 which is five years prior to when they were considering joining the SEC and when they actually did join the Big East.

So the reasons given for wanting the Big East over the SEC does make some sense since as already pointed out they are a private university, large northeastern connections (much more so at that time then now), football not needing help but basketball desperately needing it, etc. Still think their academics, rogue program image, and rowdiness of their fans were negative factors for getting into either the ACC or the SEC as well but didn't prevent them from being considered at least by the SEC.

Cheers,
Neil

^
In the next round we will see West Virginia in the SEC.

I doubt it. Unless the SEC doesn’t care about geography. WVU is a better fit for the B1G. They are relatively close to Maryland, Penn State, and Ohio State. The closest SEC opponent is UK which is 325 miles away.



West Virginia does not have the academics for a Big 10 invite. They also don’t fit the Big 10’s market model, especially when Penn State already brings more of the Pittsburgh market (the only decent sized market where WVU might have something of a following) than WVU does, and even Ohio State probably brings about as much of the market as WVU.
07-21-2022 11:48 AM
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LeeNobody Offline
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Post: #389
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
#1 undisputed Georgia Tech going independent and leaving the SEC. Tech's qualms were resolved in less than a decade, and Tech had no idea the impact of pro franchises in Atlanta. Biggest example of betting on yourself and losing in history. Every Tech fan dreams of a world where we never left, but the SEC will never take us back
07-21-2022 11:54 AM
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ColKurtz Offline
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Post: #390
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(07-21-2022 11:42 AM)Poster Wrote:  #2 is probably the Big Ten adding Maryland and Rutgers. Especially since that lead to the creation of the ACC GOR that’s now preventing the Big 10 from adding ACC teams that have more value than Maryland. (And that wouldn’t be paired with Rutgers.)

Rutgers wasn't really a failure given they weren't added for competitive reasons but rather the TV sets in their markets. That move netted almost $50M (in 2014 dollars) per year for the Big Ten Network alone.
07-21-2022 11:55 AM
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Post: #391
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(07-21-2022 11:54 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  #1 undisputed Georgia Tech going independent and leaving the SEC. Tech's qualms were resolved in less than a decade, and Tech had no idea the impact of pro franchises in Atlanta. Biggest example of betting on yourself and losing in history. Every Tech fan dreams of a world where we never left, but the SEC will never take us back

At least yall got back into a power conference

Tulane could have been the Vanderbilt of the west but instead is still on the outside looking in
07-21-2022 11:56 AM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #392
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(09-28-2018 07:21 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  MAC decision to add Temple and UMass. MAC adding UCF.

Adding UCF was more of a compromise, since they were already playing a MAC schedule and knew that they would never be a long term fit.
07-21-2022 12:01 PM
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PeteTheChop Online
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Post: #393
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
B1G passing on Notre Dame ... soon to be rectified?

Bobby Bowden's self-serving decision to take Florida State to the ACC

Canes not going to the SEC as the backup choice for FSU

B1G not taking Mizzou

Big East not taking Saint Louis

HBCU's joining low-major non-HBCU conferences

ACC taking Syracuse instead of UConn
07-21-2022 12:04 PM
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curtis0620 Offline
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Post: #394
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
The Big Ten taking Nebraska instead of Pitt.
07-21-2022 12:05 PM
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Post: #395
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(09-27-2018 07:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let's debate the biggest realignment blunders. Let's keep it to FBS DI. I'm sure sure someone here thinks the break up of the WVIAC was devestating but let's keep the discussion to widely known entities.

Here are a few to ponder:

Formation of the WAC 16

Big East rejects Penn St/failure to form an Eastern all sports Conference

Florida St picks ACC over SEC

Big Ten adding Rutgers and Maryland

Big 12 declines to add Cincy and L'ville to return to 12

Pac 16 DOA

GT and Tulane leaving the SEC

C-USA 3.0 (current 14 member set up)

Big Ten rejects ND (1920s)

ACC expansion 2004-2005

Big 12/LHN Drama sending TAMU, Mizzou to SEC

Pac-12 not taking Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in 2011 when it had a chance to go to 14.
07-21-2022 12:10 PM
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curtis0620 Offline
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Post: #396
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(07-21-2022 12:10 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  
(09-27-2018 07:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let's debate the biggest realignment blunders. Let's keep it to FBS DI. I'm sure sure someone here thinks the break up of the WVIAC was devestating but let's keep the discussion to widely known entities.

Here are a few to ponder:

Formation of the WAC 16

Big East rejects Penn St/failure to form an Eastern all sports Conference

Florida St picks ACC over SEC

Big Ten adding Rutgers and Maryland

Big 12 declines to add Cincy and L'ville to return to 12

Pac 16 DOA

GT and Tulane leaving the SEC

C-USA 3.0 (current 14 member set up)

Big Ten rejects ND (1920s)

ACC expansion 2004-2005

Big 12/LHN Drama sending TAMU, Mizzou to SEC

Pac-12 not taking Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in 2011 when it had a chance to go to 14.

Along with Texas ad Texas Tech.
07-21-2022 12:20 PM
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Just Joe Offline
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Post: #397
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(07-21-2022 12:20 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  
(07-21-2022 12:10 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  
(09-27-2018 07:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let's debate the biggest realignment blunders. Let's keep it to FBS DI. I'm sure sure someone here thinks the break up of the WVIAC was devestating but let's keep the discussion to widely known entities.

Here are a few to ponder:

Formation of the WAC 16

Big East rejects Penn St/failure to form an Eastern all sports Conference

Florida St picks ACC over SEC

Big Ten adding Rutgers and Maryland

Big 12 declines to add Cincy and L'ville to return to 12

Pac 16 DOA

GT and Tulane leaving the SEC

C-USA 3.0 (current 14 member set up)

Big Ten rejects ND (1920s)

ACC expansion 2004-2005

Big 12/LHN Drama sending TAMU, Mizzou to SEC

Pac-12 not taking Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in 2011 when it had a chance to go to 14.

Along with Texas ad Texas Tech.

That was 2010 but it wasn't the PAC's fault, Texas decided to stay in the Big 12.

There was a point after that (I think in 2010 still but maybe it was 2011 as the above poster says) that OU and OSU reached out and were rejected due to the non-California PAC schools, particularly the two newest members, not wanting to miss out on California games without Texas being on board. Very shortsighted as OU moving would've forced UT's hand, and I don't see Deloss Dodds asking to tag along with A&M.
07-21-2022 12:30 PM
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Kyle Mack Offline
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Post: #398
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(07-21-2022 12:04 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  B1G passing on Notre Dame ... soon to be rectified?

Bobby Bowden's self-serving decision to take Florida State to the ACC

Canes not going to the SEC as the backup choice for FSU

B1G not taking Mizzou

Big East not taking Saint Louis

HBCU's joining low-major non-HBCU conferences

ACC taking Syracuse instead of UConn Cincinnati
FIFY
07-21-2022 01:57 PM
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DFW HOYA Offline
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Post: #399
RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(09-27-2018 07:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let's debate the biggest realignment blunders. Let's keep it to FBS DI. I'm sure sure someone here thinks the break up of the WVIAC was devestating but let's keep the discussion to widely known entities.

Here are a few to ponder:

Big East rejects Penn St/failure to form an Eastern all sports Conference

Penn State had zero loyalty in the Big East as a true all sports destination--Paterno just wanted a share of the TV money.

And had Penn State joined the Big East and the Big Ten called, he would have been right out the door.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2022 02:02 PM by DFW HOYA.)
07-21-2022 02:01 PM
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RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(07-21-2022 12:05 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  The Big Ten taking Nebraska instead of Pitt.

Haha... no way. They were at 11 schools. They needed 12 to get the Championship game. They should have grabbed OU/UT/UN in one swoop, but probably didn't want OU at the time. Even if they could only grab 1 school, it still would have been UN. Pitt maybe a close second, but Pitt got the ACC bid before or after UN? I think it was after. I think the ACC was the first to go to 14 schools (or perhaps it was the SEC with A&M; I think it happened in the same year). Why didn't the B1G grab UT and OU? Snobs that didn't want heavy Republican states and not so great OU academics at the time? The B1G should have bid with Larry Scott's PAC-16 deal.

But I hate playing revisionist history. If they had one choice between a Big 12 and Big East school, the obvious choice was UN (assuming UT didn't want to go).

Imagine something like East/West without RU/Maryland:

West: OUT, UN, Iowa, Minn, NWU, Illinois
East: UM, OSU, PSU, MSU, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2022 02:16 PM by RUScarlets.)
07-21-2022 02:09 PM
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