With almost everyone at a third of their season gone, the foot race to New Year's has become fairly clear. The openning sprint is done and now we'll see who has the legs for the full distance. Here is a snap shot of the race right now.

Front runners control their own destiny, win and they are in.

Contenders can get themselves to the finish line but need a push to get over first.

Opportunist can run with the pack, any openning and they will try to push through.

Dead on Arrival they may have never stood a chance at the start, but losses have doomed any shot they did have.

All teams are placed in the order from first to worst in their assigned tier.



Front runners:

UCF~ win out. Win out with a lot of help from the A5 and some help from the AAC and maybe a shot at the play off. Access bowl with one loss to a good team. A bad loss opens door for one loss Boise or SDSU.

USF~ win out. One loss to a one loss Cincy, UCF, or Houston and they are probably in. Two losses put them behind a one loss Boise or SDSU.

Cincinatti~ win out. One loss to UCF or USF and they're neck and neck with one loss Boise or SDSU.


Top Contenders:

Houston~ win out. Their one loss is better than Boise's but it is worst than SDSU's. Houston's remaining schedule is much better than either mw team with a solid chance at two ranked teams or even possibly three.

SDSU~ win out and have any of the above teams lose. Win out, Houston wins the AAC, Texas Tech tanks completely and Houston only gets one ranked opponent. That's a toss up with a SDSU lean for the Access.

Boise St~ win out and have any of the above teams lose. Win out, Houston wins the AAC and Texas Tech tanks while Oklahoma St looks better and Houston only gets one ranked opponent, advantage Boise.


The Opportunistic:

Fresno St~ Minnesota gophers tore up their yard. The UCLA win let them sod over some holes, but they're going to need some help to sell it.

North Texas~ them boys can play, but were a dark horse to start and the La Tech loss stings. Need to win out, have everyone else lose, look good winning big and maybe even have a few people lose twice.

Buffalo~ the NCAA has ignored the complaints of allowing an NFL franchise to participate in FBS. They rightly point out the lack of success even at this level for the Bills, I mean Bison, or Cowboys, or whatever the hell western US mascot they have chosen for this New York town. Sorry "western" New York town. Pretty much just like at the NFL level they need everyone else to lose a lot to be relevant.


Dead on Arrival:

Memphis~ what the hell? Tulane?

Navy~ what the hell times two? SMU?

Hawaii~ I hear they like to duct tape people naked to toilets, no idea why. Hang loose brah...

Rest of AAC, sprinkle in some MW teams~ It is what it is.

Most of CUSA, SunBelt, MAC~ looking for a nice bowl game preferably some where warm.