(10-09-2018 07:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-09-2018 06:57 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(10-09-2018 06:38 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Clearly the AAC East division winner is in the driver's seat for the Fiesta Bowl so I see a 3 way tie for #1.
#2 is Houston if they can win out and get to championship game. If 1 loss Houston plays undefeated AAC East champ then the winner of that game will go to the Fiesta Bowl.

However, Utah St is a quiet #3 and is in prime position to win the MWC Mountain. Ideally they would face #4 MWC West champion Fresno or SDSU. Hawaii is also currently in that tie with Fresno and SDSU, but they play Utah St in the regular season in a big matchup with possible NY6 implications.

Finally, I would put App in the #5 slot. If somehow both the AAC champ and MWC champ have multiple losses I could see one loss App getting the nod.

I do think that this year a close call will favor the MWC since committees tend to get political. The Fiesta bowl would likely prefer a MWC team over a non undefeated AAC team. So I could see a 1 loss Houston losing out to a 1 loss SDSU or Utah St

It doesn't HAVE to be the Fiesta Bowl. People just assume it will be because the Peach Bowl had the G5 rep last year. But I'm sure that the Peach Bowl would love to have UCF back if we were the G5 rep since we sold out our allotment in record breaking time and spent a lot of money in Atlanta. And that is really what it is about for the bowl game, fans that buy tickets, travel and spend money in their city.

It's significantly about stuff like ticket sales and hotel rooms, but that's not all it's about. TV ratings matter, and e.g. the Peach Bowl was beaten by the Citrus Bowl which was played at the same time. The Peach was the only NY6 bowl that was beaten in the ratings by a non-NY6 bowl.

Also, bowls have a significant prestige factor associated with them, so a bowl game can puff out its chest more if it is hosting name-brand elite teams rather than G5 teams. A big bowl would rather have its brand associated with a major power than with a G5.

Citrus Bowl on OTA isn't that fair of a comparison. Let's look at TV numbers vs previous Peach Bowls.

For the Peach Bowl UCF vs Auburn game drew 8.38 Million viewers, which was up 28% from their game in 2015 (Houston vs Florida State) and 55% higher than 2014 (TCU vs Ole Miss). **Peach Bowl had Semi-final game in 2016 so not really a fair comparison.

You guys really are putting too much effort into this.

The simple answer is:
1-undefeated AAC champ
2-1 loss AAC champ
3-1 loss MWC champ
4-1 loss SBC if it is App or Troy
5-2 loss AAC champ

Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

All the MWC, CUSA and select guys who support P5 programs but have a bizarre case of AAC Derangement Syndrome on this forum

(10-10-2018 06:58 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  You guys really are putting too much effort into this.

The simple answer is:
1-undefeated AAC champ
2-1 loss AAC champ
3-1 loss MWC champ
4-1 loss SBC if it is App or Troy
5-2 loss AAC champ

Agree, App looks good and should get some consideration, should the AAC champ stumble down the stretch.

(10-10-2018 09:16 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 06:58 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  You guys really are putting too much effort into this.

The simple answer is:
1-undefeated AAC champ
2-1 loss AAC champ
3-1 loss MWC champ
4-1 loss SBC if it is App or Troy
5-2 loss AAC champ

Agree, App looks good and should get some consideration, should the AAC champ stumble down the stretch.

Had App hung on versus Penn State, they'd be in the driver's seat for the NY6 spot, but they didn't, so now they need a lot of help to get that spot - the best AAC team will have to have two losses.

(10-09-2018 10:33 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Wonder how many fans Hawaii would bring to the Fiesta Bowl?
Did they bring any fans to the Sugar Bowl that year they made it?

I remember seeing a ton of Hawaii fans in town the year they went to the Sugar Bowl.

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

(10-10-2018 10:24 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 09:16 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 06:58 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  You guys really are putting too much effort into this.

The simple answer is:
1-undefeated AAC champ
2-1 loss AAC champ
3-1 loss MWC champ
4-1 loss SBC if it is App or Troy
5-2 loss AAC champ

Agree, App looks good and should get some consideration, should the AAC champ stumble down the stretch.

Had App hung on versus Penn State, they'd be in the driver's seat for the NY6 spot, but they didn't, so now they need a lot of help to get that spot - the best AAC team will have to have two losses.

Slight correction, the winner of the AAC championship game will need to have two losses, not necessarily the best team. And probably the MWC winner as well. But in general, you are correct.

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

(10-10-2018 01:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

Not sure whats so special about Mich St., ASU, or BYU. Stanford has a very solid team but they stomped SDSU so all we learned from that game is that SDSU can't beat good competition.

(10-10-2018 01:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

If I had wings, I could fly...

In your opinion, all 3 of the AAC's teams would have lost to Michigan State - a team that has already lost two games (to Arizona State and Northwestern, neither of which even has a winning record). Yeah, there's absolutely no way any of the AAC's teams could have beaten Michigan State! (that's sarcasm, BTW). The next best team on Utah State's schedule is either Air Force or BYU, neither of whom ALSO has a winning record.

San Diego State has definitely played a tough schedule, though it's not like that Stanford loss is so impressive now that the Cardinal have dropped two games and really had no business winning the game at Oregon, either. While I think there's a decent chance that any of the AAC's teams might not have gotten through SDSU's schedule unscathed, it's not like it's impossible to imagine it. FFS, UCF beat Auburn in Atlanta at the end of last year, the same team that beat both of the participants in the national championship game, and they have virtually the entire team back. You're telling me there's "no way" they'd have gotten through the Aztec's schedule without a loss?

Stop being such a homer!

USFFan

(10-10-2018 01:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

Interesting assertion.

Massey has a "matchup" widget that will let one at least add a little rigor if one wished to engage in such flights of fancy.

According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 01:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

Interesting assertion.

Massey has a "matchup" widget that will let one at least add a little rigor if one wished to engage in such flights of fancy.

According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

USU hosted Mich St. I like most American teams chances of winning that game, favored or not.

(10-10-2018 02:08 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 01:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 07:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are some Factoids for you:

The AAC has 3 unbeaten teams - the most of any FBS conference, "P6" or otherwise.

Those same 3 teams - UCF, USF and Cincinnati - are all ranked in the AP Top 25 as well.

The only other conferences with a team in the top 25 are the ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame. That means that only those 6 power conferences have ranked teams.

for more: https://americanrx.blogspot.com/2018/10/...01018.html

With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

If I had wings, I could fly...

In your opinion, all 3 of the AAC's teams would have lost to Michigan State - a team that has already lost two games (to Arizona State and Northwestern, neither of which even has a winning record). Yeah, there's absolutely no way any of the AAC's teams could have beaten Michigan State! (that's sarcasm, BTW). The next best team on Utah State's schedule is either Air Force or BYU, neither of whom ALSO has a winning record.

San Diego State has definitely played a tough schedule, though it's not like that Stanford loss is so impressive now that the Cardinal have dropped two games and really had no business winning the game at Oregon, either. While I think there's a decent chance that any of the AAC's teams might not have gotten through SDSU's schedule unscathed, it's not like it's impossible to imagine it. FFS, UCF beat Auburn in Atlanta at the end of last year, the same team that beat both of the participants in the national championship game, and they have virtually the entire team back. You're telling me there's "no way" they'd have gotten through the Aztec's schedule without a loss?

Stop being such a homer!

USFFan

I don't have a dog in the fight - not a fan of any MWC team. But the AAC fans - talk about homerism.


But I am a fan of Illinois, a team that South Florida trailed most of the game, and got lucky to beat. That tells me all I need to know about USF.

(10-10-2018 03:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:08 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 01:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

If I had wings, I could fly...

In your opinion, all 3 of the AAC's teams would have lost to Michigan State - a team that has already lost two games (to Arizona State and Northwestern, neither of which even has a winning record). Yeah, there's absolutely no way any of the AAC's teams could have beaten Michigan State! (that's sarcasm, BTW). The next best team on Utah State's schedule is either Air Force or BYU, neither of whom ALSO has a winning record.

San Diego State has definitely played a tough schedule, though it's not like that Stanford loss is so impressive now that the Cardinal have dropped two games and really had no business winning the game at Oregon, either. While I think there's a decent chance that any of the AAC's teams might not have gotten through SDSU's schedule unscathed, it's not like it's impossible to imagine it. FFS, UCF beat Auburn in Atlanta at the end of last year, the same team that beat both of the participants in the national championship game, and they have virtually the entire team back. You're telling me there's "no way" they'd have gotten through the Aztec's schedule without a loss?

Stop being such a homer!

USFFan

I don't have a dog in the fight - not a fan of any MWC team. But the AAC fans - talk about homerism.


But I am a fan of Illinois, a team that South Florida trailed most of the game, and got lucky to beat. That tells me all I need to know about USF.

Some of the American teams may be overrated currently but you pay some respect to being undefeated mid-way through the year. That USF-Illinois game definitely showed that USF is mistake prone, but I do believe some of that can be attributed to the first road game of the year and a new QB. Penn State struggled against yall for the first 2-3 quarters as well. Good teams find ways to win even on an off day. Wins a win, especially on the road.

(10-10-2018 03:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:08 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 01:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 11:12 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  With combined opponent record (FBS Only) of 16-43

What a ridiculous assertion...

If you throw out the 16 losses to Cincinnati, UCF and USF, here are the records of the FBS teams they've played:

UCLA 0-4
Miami 2-3
Ohio 3-1
UConn 1-3
Tulane 2-3
FAU 3-2
Pitt 3-2
SMU 2-3
Georgia Tech 3-2
Illinois 3-1
UMass 2-4
ECU 2-2

which amounts to a combined 26-30 record

Let's see how some of the much ballyhooed MWC candidates compare using the same criteria:

For Boise State

Troy 5-0
UConn 1-4
Okie State 3-2
Wyoming 2-3
SDSU 3-1

That's 14-10. A little better, but let's not go crazy about a .583 vs. a .464 winning percentage

For Utah State

Michigan State 2-2
New Mexico State 2-3
Air Force 2-2
BYU 3-2

9-9. It's hardly that the MWC teams have faced a murderer's row compared to any of the AAC teams.

People seriously need to relax. This will all sort itself out in the end.

USFFan

If any of the AAC 3 had played USU's schedule, they would have one loss, maybe two.

Same with San Diego State's schedule - top end is much harder than anything the AAC 3 has faced.

If I had wings, I could fly...

In your opinion, all 3 of the AAC's teams would have lost to Michigan State - a team that has already lost two games (to Arizona State and Northwestern, neither of which even has a winning record). Yeah, there's absolutely no way any of the AAC's teams could have beaten Michigan State! (that's sarcasm, BTW). The next best team on Utah State's schedule is either Air Force or BYU, neither of whom ALSO has a winning record.

San Diego State has definitely played a tough schedule, though it's not like that Stanford loss is so impressive now that the Cardinal have dropped two games and really had no business winning the game at Oregon, either. While I think there's a decent chance that any of the AAC's teams might not have gotten through SDSU's schedule unscathed, it's not like it's impossible to imagine it. FFS, UCF beat Auburn in Atlanta at the end of last year, the same team that beat both of the participants in the national championship game, and they have virtually the entire team back. You're telling me there's "no way" they'd have gotten through the Aztec's schedule without a loss?

Stop being such a homer!

USFFan

I don't have a dog in the fight - not a fan of any MWC team. But the AAC fans - talk about homerism.


But I am a fan of Illinois, a team that South Florida trailed most of the game, and got lucky to beat. That tells me all I need to know about USF.

You're right that we trailed for a good chunk of that game. You're not right that we were lucky to win. We outgained you 626 yards to 380 and had 10 more first downs than you. We missed two FG's, threw you an INT on our half of the field that you converted into 3 points despite not being able to move the ball and got called for 14 penalties (we only had 15 total other penalties in the two games prior and one after that). We were clearly the better team despite the adversity.

USFFan

UCF, USF, Cincinnati and Houston all could lose to Stanford and Oklahoma State. I noticed the issue with Boise State is their placekickers. Boise State have had issues with them. Their 2 games that Boise lost was their placekickers have missed the 3 pointers. When Boise was within range for a field goal? They decided to go on 4th down instead of going for 3. They could have beaten San Diego State if they used their placekicker.

Now, as I could see this if you take the best of AAC vs the best of MWC on the field? Cincinnati, Houston and USF could lose to the MWC teams. UCF would be a push.

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.