(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

That accounting for road games? App has a good team not saying they wouldn't compete in those leagues but the MWC and AAC are quite a bit deeper top to bottom then the Sun Belt.

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

good point - and none of the AAC teams would be unbeaten with App State's schedule.

(10-10-2018 04:35 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

That accounting for road games? App has a good team not saying they wouldn't compete in those leagues but the MWC and AAC are quite a bit deeper top to bottom then the Sun Belt.

Ok, you got me. Massey said App would lose on the Smurf turf but beat Boise in Boone.

As for conference depth, I fail to see how the quality of Texas State or UConn has any relevance on how good App or USF may or may not be on the field. Last time I checked those teams all have different coaches and players.

(10-10-2018 04:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UCF, USF, Cincinnati and Houston all could lose to Stanford and Oklahoma State. I noticed the issue with Boise State is their placekickers. Boise State have had issues with them. Their 2 games that Boise lost was their placekickers have missed the 3 pointers. When Boise was within range for a field goal? They decided to go on 4th down instead of going for 3. They could have beaten San Diego State if they used their placekicker.

Now, as I could see this if you take the best of AAC vs the best of MWC on the field? Cincinnati, Houston and USF could lose to the MWC teams. UCF would be a push.

COULD Boise State, San Diego State and/or Utah State beat UCF, Cincinnati, USF or Houston? Of course! Nobody's said that they couldn't. But for better or worse, UCF, Cincinnati and USF have all failed to lose a single game, and Houston's only loss was on the road at Texas Tech, who promptly went into Stillwater and waxed that same Oklahoma State team that blew out Boise State. Which is why the constant potshots taken at AAC teams here by fans of MWC fans is so laughable, as are the claims that all of those teams "certainly would have lost at least a game had they played any of those MWC schedules." It's OK to admit that Boise was not what they were initially hyped as to start the season. It's not like the rest of us haven't already come to the same conclusion.

USFFan

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

USFFan

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.

Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy

As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.

(10-10-2018 04:37 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

good point - and none of the AAC teams would be unbeaten with App State's schedule.

LOL - neither is App State. You know what? None of the AAC's teams would be unbeaten if they'd played the Dolphins' schedule, either. It's kind of a moot point.

The primary reason why an unbeaten AAC team would get the NY6 bid over an unbeaten (which they're not) App State is that the conference schedule for the AAC champion would be much harder than that for App State (or Troy). So the same will almost certainly be true for a once beaten AAC champ over App State if the Mountaineers run the rest of the table. Now, a 2 loss AAC champ? That's a different conversation.

USFFan

(10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC.

USFFan

(10-10-2018 04:41 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:35 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

That accounting for road games? App has a good team not saying they wouldn't compete in those leagues but the MWC and AAC are quite a bit deeper top to bottom then the Sun Belt.

Ok, you got me. Massey said App would lose on the Smurf turf but beat Boise in Boone.

As for conference depth, I fail to see how the quality of Texas State or UConn has any relevance on how good App or USF may or may not be on the field. Last time I checked those teams all have different coaches and players.

It matters in the context of getting the NY6 slot which is really what this whole thread is about. What I was alluding to is that the American and Mountain West are deeper conferences than the Sun Belt, and a team that can run those slates is more deserving than App St. would be for running their remaining schedule. Crow all you want about UCF, USF, or UC being overrated, but ultimately they all have to play each other and earn their chance at the NY6 spot. Who does App St. still have that will register as a quality win? Maybe thats not a fair way to decide it. Maybe App is one of the 10 or 15 best teams in the country, as evidenced by their effort against PSU. Unfortunately we don't really have a way of knowing. Yall had your shot against Penn St. early in the year. Win that game and yall'd have been in the driver seat remainder of the way.

(10-10-2018 10:52 AM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(10-09-2018 10:33 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Wonder how many fans Hawaii would bring to the Fiesta Bowl?
Did they bring any fans to the Sugar Bowl that year they made it?

I remember seeing a ton of Hawaii fans in town the year they went to the Sugar Bowl.

I wasn’t talking Shite. I honestly wanted to know if Hawaii brought fans from the islands to the Eastern Time Zone. Good for them. Imagine if a 13-1 Hawaii fresh off a MWC title over Boise made the Access Bowl?? They are 6-1, 3-0 with only a road loss to a good Army squad. I picked them 11th in the MWC in my pre season conference picks. I was way off. They have a good QB.

(10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.

Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy

As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.

SMU beat Navy.
Whatever anyone suspected six weeks ago, Navy is a team with one FBS win.

Those Navy facts, and the AAC-mwc games you cited, have nothing to do do with whether UCF is a better team than Boise by every objective measure. I keep coming with data, and you say "seems"

(10-10-2018 05:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.

Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy

As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.

SMU beat Navy.
Whatever anyone suspected six weeks ago, Navy is a team with one FBS win.

Those Navy facts, and the AAC-mwc games you cited, have nothing to do do with whether UCF is a better team than Boise by every objective measure. I keep coming with data, and you say "seems"

Those data are wrong. Computers really can't tell who is a better team. Some computers have Boise State still way ahead of everybody in the G5 schools even when they lost to San Diego State. UCF, USF and Cincinnati filled their schedules with cupcakes. NDSU could beat those 3 with their hands tied behind their backs.

(10-11-2018 04:30 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 05:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.

Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy

As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.

SMU beat Navy.
Whatever anyone suspected six weeks ago, Navy is a team with one FBS win.

Those Navy facts, and the AAC-mwc games you cited, have nothing to do do with whether UCF is a better team than Boise by every objective measure. I keep coming with data, and you say "seems"

Those data are wrong. Computers really can't tell who is a better team. Some computers have Boise State still way ahead of everybody in the G5 schools even when they lost to San Diego State. UCF, USF and Cincinnati filled their schedules with cupcakes. NDSU could beat those 3 with their hands tied behind their backs.

AH - yeah - right.

(10-11-2018 04:30 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 05:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.

Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy

As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.

SMU beat Navy.
Whatever anyone suspected six weeks ago, Navy is a team with one FBS win.

Those Navy facts, and the AAC-mwc games you cited, have nothing to do do with whether UCF is a better team than Boise by every objective measure. I keep coming with data, and you say "seems"

Those data are wrong. Computers really can't tell who is a better team. Some computers have Boise State still way ahead of everybody in the G5 schools even when they lost to San Diego State. UCF, USF and Cincinnati filled their schedules with cupcakes. NDSU could beat those 3 with their hands tied behind their backs.

AH - yeah - right.

(10-11-2018 10:38 AM)panite Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 04:30 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 05:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.

Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy

As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.

SMU beat Navy.
Whatever anyone suspected six weeks ago, Navy is a team with one FBS win.

Those Navy facts, and the AAC-mwc games you cited, have nothing to do do with whether UCF is a better team than Boise by every objective measure. I keep coming with data, and you say "seems"

Those data are wrong. Computers really can't tell who is a better team. Some computers have Boise State still way ahead of everybody in the G5 schools even when they lost to San Diego State. UCF, USF and Cincinnati filled their schedules with cupcakes. NDSU could beat those 3 with their hands tied behind their backs.

AH - yeah - right.

USFFan

(10-10-2018 05:23 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:41 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:35 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

That accounting for road games? App has a good team not saying they wouldn't compete in those leagues but the MWC and AAC are quite a bit deeper top to bottom then the Sun Belt.

Ok, you got me. Massey said App would lose on the Smurf turf but beat Boise in Boone.

As for conference depth, I fail to see how the quality of Texas State or UConn has any relevance on how good App or USF may or may not be on the field. Last time I checked those teams all have different coaches and players.

It matters in the context of getting the NY6 slot which is really what this whole thread is about. What I was alluding to is that the American and Mountain West are deeper conferences than the Sun Belt, and a team that can run those slates is more deserving than App St. would be for running their remaining schedule. Crow all you want about UCF, USF, or UC being overrated, but ultimately they all have to play each other and earn their chance at the NY6 spot. Who does App St. still have that will register as a quality win? Maybe thats not a fair way to decide it. Maybe App is one of the 10 or 15 best teams in the country, as evidenced by their effort against PSU. Unfortunately we don't really have a way of knowing. Yall had your shot against Penn St. early in the year. Win that game and yall'd have been in the driver seat remainder of the way.

Is the AAC that much deeper, especially this year? UConn, ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU are all pretty bad this year. Even Navy and Temple aren't as good as they have been. Look what we did on the road at Arkansas State who went on the road to beat Tulsa by two scores. The Sun Belt does have 5 or 6 teams that aren't very good, but we have 3 or 4 good teams as well which is on par with most G5 leagues. I'd say the Sun Belt has proven it's no longer the doormat conference in FBS. Our OOC record against the other 5 leagues has been very good the past few years.

(10-10-2018 05:25 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:52 AM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(10-09-2018 10:33 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Wonder how many fans Hawaii would bring to the Fiesta Bowl?
Did they bring any fans to the Sugar Bowl that year they made it?

I remember seeing a ton of Hawaii fans in town the year they went to the Sugar Bowl.

I wasn’t talking Shite. I honestly wanted to know if Hawaii brought fans from the islands to the Eastern Time Zone. Good for them. Imagine if a 13-1 Hawaii fresh off a MWC title over Boise made the Access Bowl?? They are 6-1, 3-0 with only a road loss to a good Army squad. I picked them 11th in the MWC in my pre season conference picks. I was way off. They have a good QB.

Don’t think Sugar Bowl is ETZ. Have to move like 3 states over.

It is cool to be in the discussion for the 2nd or 3rd time since joining FBS 4 years ago. The what-ifs are incredible to fathom. Wins at Tennessee, Penn State, and beating Miami and Wake at home would have the AAC building an airport and skyscrapers in Boone.... But we didn't win those games. I appreciate being recognized for more than one game in 2007. Go Apps! Hoping for a special season, and for this topic to be debated until the end.

(10-11-2018 04:30 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 05:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)

Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.

But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.

Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy

As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.

SMU beat Navy.
Whatever anyone suspected six weeks ago, Navy is a team with one FBS win.

Those Navy facts, and the AAC-mwc games you cited, have nothing to do do with whether UCF is a better team than Boise by every objective measure. I keep coming with data, and you say "seems"

Those data are wrong. Computers really can't tell who is a better team. Some computers have Boise State still way ahead of everybody in the G5 schools even when they lost to San Diego State. UCF, USF and Cincinnati filled their schedules with cupcakes. NDSU could beat those 3 with their hands tied behind their backs.

I'll re-engage here one more time for a couple reasons.
First you correctly used "those data" so thank you for that.
Second, I realized that what I thought had been said here was in the other, very similar thread.

My first point I'll pull from over there. ESPN uses their FPI stats to calculate "strength of record" which is supposed to reflect the chance that an average top 25 would be able replicate a team's record against that team's schedule.
Ranking in SOR of the teams being talked about here:
USF 15
SDSU 16
Cincinnati 18
UCF 31
Utah State 34
App State 39
Houston 40
Fresno St 41
Troy 46
Hawaii 54
Boise St 63

You say the non-AAC teams were "tested" by playing tougher teams, but losing to a good team doesn't necessarily make you good. Who have they actually beaten?
Avg Massey Composite Ranking of FBS WINS:
SDSU - 61
Houston 78.5
Fresno 89.3
Boise 90.3
USF 91.75
Utah St 92.3
UCF 93.25
Cincinnati 98
App St 107
Hawaii 112
SDSU looks good here. But the difference between 89.3 and 93.25 is pretty negligible. Fresno, Boise, Utah St - no advantage over USF, UCF. Cincy is another step down, and App/Hawaii are way down.

Does anyone have one big signature win that can overcome an AAC team that has a better record and is already ahead in the rankings? Nope. I don't see a lot of difference between Arizona State at 53 and Illinois at 82.
Quality win - in order of ranking of team beaten:
SDSU - Boise 39
Boise - Troy 52
SDSU - Arizona State 53
USF - Georgia Tech 63
Utah State - BYU 68
UCF - Pitt 72
App St - Ark St 76
Fresno - Toledo 77
UCF - FAU 78
Houston - Arizona 79
USF - Illinois 82
Cincinnati - Ohio 87
Cincinnati - Tulane 88

I could go further down, and even highlight that USF's FCS win over Elon is a better win than some FBS wins of USU, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, Hawaii, and App State. But that got all the teams on the list at least once and the averages tell the story further down.

But the point is, your feelings that the records to date, the results on the field, somehow favor mwc or other non-contract-bowl-conference teams over the undefeated or one-loss AAC teams are just flat-out-incorrect.

(10-09-2018 06:38 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Clearly the AAC East division winner is in the driver's seat for the Fiesta Bowl so I see a 3 way tie for #1.
#2 is Houston if they can win out and get to championship game. If 1 loss Houston plays undefeated AAC East champ then the winner of that game will go to the Fiesta Bowl.

However, Utah St is a quiet #3 and is in prime position to win the MWC Mountain. Ideally they would face #4 MWC West champion Fresno or SDSU. Hawaii is also currently in that tie with Fresno and SDSU, but they play Utah St in the regular season in a big matchup with possible NY6 implications.

Finally, I would put App in the #5 slot. If somehow both the AAC champ and MWC champ have multiple losses I could see one loss App getting the nod.

I do think that this year a close call will favor the MWC since committees tend to get political. The Fiesta bowl would likely prefer a MWC team over a non undefeated AAC team. So I could see a 1 loss Houston losing out to a 1 loss SDSU or Utah St

This. Houston is currently sitting prettier than 4th/5th because the 3 teams at the top all have to play each other. They have a leg up simply by not being in the same division as the top 3. With that being said, they do already have the 1 loss, AND play against USF in a few weeks. Either way, any team out of the West has a punchers chance by being in the AAC championship game.