usffan
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RE: AP Poll - Week 8
(10-17-2018 10:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-17-2018 09:42 AM)usffan Wrote: (10-17-2018 09:16 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-16-2018 07:28 PM)otown Wrote: (10-16-2018 06:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote: 2) The "what more can they do"? argument about UCF makes little sense. While it isn't entirely UCF's fault that their schedule is abjectly bad, we can't just pretend that they are playing tough games that they aren't. Bottom line is, going 12-0 vs a soft schedule doesn't make you worthy of making the playoffs, even if you do it 5 straight years. You are competing for 4 spots out of 130 teams.
Well, then there is a breach of contract due to violating the spirit of the contract. The contract said there was a path, but going undefeated 5 years in a row and not making it.... or even sniffing it...... well, I would believe it would be a strong case
I can't see a breach of contract because the contract doesn't guarantee anything to anyone. The "path" is the same for everyone - convince the CFP committee that you are one of the top four teams. Anyone can be left out, in fact it's a guarantee that every year at least one P5 champ will be left out, and the last two years, two of them have been. Last year, Ohio State, arguably the most powerful program in college football, was left out despite winning the B1G. This year, Texas, also arguably the most powerful program in college football, could very well win the Big 12 but be left out. If five P5 champs went undefeated five straight years, every single year an unbeaten P5 champ would be left out.
Remember, it's not just the CFP that had UCF outside of the playoffs last year, basically everyone else did too - the AP poll, the Coaches poll, the computers. And right now, all of them have UCF outside the playoffs as well.
There's nothing magical about going undefeated, it all depends on who you play. It's very possible that a 9-3 record vs a very tough schedule is more of an achievement than 12-0 vs a soft one.
You're right - the way this has been constructed, there's no contract that's being broken. But it's the same as saying "any kid in the United States can grow up to be president." In reality, we all know that isn't close to true, because you have to have the right combination of name/wealth ("blue blood") and appeal, so in reality there are at best 20 people right now who have any chance at becoming/remaining president in 2020.
But we see all the time that things can change. Outsiders have the ability to build enough momentum to buck those trends (ahem, 2016). And any system where a group of people just pick the four participants based on fuzzily-defined criteria that move every year will result in a change to the status quo. I'm willing to bet bank that it won't remain as the 4 team playoff after this term. What will facilitate that is the very real prospect that:
Notre Dame runs the table
Georgia doesn't lose again and beats Alabama in the SEC championship game
Michigan wins out, including a squeaker over Ohio State
Clemson wins out
Texas wins out
Oregon wins out
USF wins out (because, hell, why does it need to be UCF in these scenarios?)
What does the playoff committee do? They'd be staring at:
Undefeated Notre Dame
Undefeated ACC Champ Clemson
1-loss SEC Champ Georgia
1-loss SEC runner up Alabama
1-loss B1G champ Michigan
1-loss Ohio State (who wouldn't even make their title game)
1-loss Big 12 champ Texas
1-loss Pac 12 champ Oregon (who lost on a fluke)
an undefeated G5 champ USF
I don't see any way the committee doesn't take Notre Dame and Clemson in this scenario, and I also think they'd take Georgia and Alabama. That leaves the B1G, the Big 12 AND the Pac 12 out, not to mention the G5 conferences. You can bet your butts that that will change the playoff ASAP.
FWIW, in your scenario, I think the playoff teams would be Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, and Michigan, and it wouldn't be very controversial.
Alabama got in over Ohio State last year because OS had two losses. In your scenario, Michigan would only have one loss, and a better loss than Texas, so Alabama and Texas are out.
As for the future (2025 and beyond), it wouldn't surprise me if they go to an 8-team playoff. The past 25 years the trend line has been in that direction, from no playoff to a two-team playoff to a four-team playoff. But nothing will change the four-team format until 2025, at most, if there is some big outcry over something, the selection process might be tweeked - maybe making being a conference champ mandatory except for independents, or maybe adding a computer element to supplement the committee, etc. But it will be four teams until 2025, IMO. That's how it was with the BCS, even under congressional pressure, they never changed the basic two team format during the duration of the contract, they just made some changes to how the two teams (and BCS bowls) were selected. Even the addition of the BCS title game in 2006 didn't alter the basic format of the process.
For my scenario, you may be right. But let's say that somehow Wisconsin rights the ship and beats Michigan in the B1G championship game. Now I don't think there's a question Bama gets in over Ohio State. The driver is that if 3 of the A5 conferences are left out of the playoff, that's going to expedite change. Another scenario is Clemson drops one, which likely locks the ACC out in the above scenario. Imagine the heads exploding if only one conference champ (Georgia in my scenario above) gets in?
As for the timing, I think you're right. They're unlikely to change the current contracts. In fact, the cynic in me thinks they'll let the controversy bubble for a few years so that it drives the price of the eventual 8 team playoff through the roof.
Truth be told, if every team simply had control of their destinies, it removes most of the teeth gnashing (note, nothing removes all of it - look at the people who get pissed about a 7th place ACC or Big East team getting left out of the NCAA tournament, but they at least had a chance to go to the tourney if they won their conferences, so I put little credence into those cries). If a conference champion is undefeated, they should get access to a playoff. Simple as that. Then every team knows at the start of their season that they at least have a chance to play for it all. Otherwise, it's still nothing more than a glorified beauty contest.
USFFan
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